1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market witnessed a key policy adjustment from August 4 - 8, 2025. The new tax policy resumed the collection of VAT on the interest income of government bonds and financial bonds issued after August 8, leading to an expectation of an expanded spread between new and old bonds. Fundamental data such as flat CPI, a 3.6% decline in PPI, and a drop in PMI in July, along with the cooling of anti - involution market sentiment, support the bullish logic of the bond market. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds is expected to fall to around 1.65%, and the yield of 5 - year secondary capital bonds of national and joint - stock banks may decline to 1.9%. Although the new tax policy exerts some pressure on new bonds, it forms a downward yield logic for old bonds, especially creating a strong incentive for institutions such as bank self - operations to scramble for old bonds. Credit bonds not affected by the new policy will also be indirectly benefited. Therefore, the current bond market bullish trend is considered the path of least resistance. In terms of credit strategies, it is recommended to increase the allocation of old financial bonds in mid - to - late August and actively capture capital gains opportunities brought about by the decline in credit bond yields [2][6]. - The tax - exemption advantage of non - financial credit bonds may lower the credit spread center. After the Ministry of Finance resumed the collection of VAT on the interest income of interest - rate bonds, the after - tax yield of non - financial credit bonds became more attractive due to their tax - exemption status, directly lowering the credit spread center. However, considering the sharing game of tax costs between issuers and investors, the decline in the spread may be less than the theoretical value. It is estimated that the yield of credit bonds may decline by 2 - 5bp, and in the long run, the allocation value of credit bonds will increase, but investors need to be vigilant about the phased disturbance of the new issuance interest rate of interest - rate bonds on the comparison advantage of credit bonds [2][7]. - The duration strategy adheres to the "neutral as the anchor". The fluctuation of market risk preference limits the stretching space of duration, and a 3 - 4 - year neutral duration is the optimal solution that combines offense and defense. Medium - duration credit bonds are less sensitive to capital interest rates and can avoid the repeated disturbances of the capital market in August. At the same time, medium - duration bonds have sufficient repair space and combine odds and liquidity. Long - duration varieties are restricted by the upward shift of the risk premium center after adjustment, supply pressure, and the cautious attitude of institutions, and it may be difficult to replicate the trend - like market of last year. It is recommended to appropriately control positions [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview - Yield and Changes of Each Term - The report presents the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of various bond types (including treasury bonds, national development bonds, local government bonds, etc.) at different terms (0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y). For example, the 0.5 - year treasury bond yield is 1.34%, showing a - 3.4bp change compared to last week, with a historical quantile of 5.6% [15]. Yield and Spread Overview - Spread and Changes of Each Term - It shows the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of various bond types at different terms. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 16bp, with a - 5.7bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 1.1% [17]. Credit Bond Yield and Spread by Category (Hermite Algorithm) - Urban Investment Bond Yield and Spread by Region Yield and Changes of Each Term - Displays the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different terms. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 1.70%, with a - 6.4bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 0.0% [20]. Spread and Changes of Each Term - Presents the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different terms. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 23.66bp, with a - 6.4bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 0.0% [23]. Yield and Changes of Each Implicit Rating - Shows the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different implicit ratings. For example, the AAA - rated 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 1.73%, with a - 2.6bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 1.0% [28]. Spread and Changes of Each Implicit Rating - Displays the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different implicit ratings. For example, the AAA - rated 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 23.10bp, with a - 2.5bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 21.5% [33]. Yield and Changes of Each Administrative Level - Presents the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds at different administrative levels in each province. For example, the provincial - level 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 1.72%, with a - 2.1bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 1.0% [38].

Core Viewpoint - The interest income from government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax (VAT) starting from August 8, 2023, which will impact both direct and indirect investors in these securities [1][2]. Direct Impact on Individual Investors - Individual investors directly purchasing these bonds will only need to pay VAT if their monthly interest income exceeds 100,000 yuan. Most investors will not reach this threshold, especially for savings bonds, which have a current interest rate of 1.7%, requiring an investment of at least 5.8824 million yuan to generate 100,000 yuan in interest [1][3]. Indirect Impact on Financial Products - Financial products and funds that invest heavily in these bonds, particularly fixed-income products, will see a reduction in actual yield due to the 3% VAT on interest income. For example, if a fund has 40% of its investments in taxable bonds with an average yield of 1.8%, the VAT could reduce the yield by 0.02 percentage points [2][3]. Tax Policy and Market Signals - The restoration of VAT on these bonds signals a shift away from encouraging funds to seek refuge in the bond market, potentially prompting investors to explore equity markets or increase consumption. Future policy adjustments could further influence the bond market [4]. Transitional Tax Treatment - The policy adopts a "new and old distinction," allowing interest income from bonds issued before August 8, 2023, to remain exempt from VAT until maturity. This means that if financial products or funds continue to purchase older bonds or newly issued bonds that are considered "old," the impact of the VAT may be mitigated [3].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares have returned to 3600 points, with bank stocks experiencing a second consecutive day of gains, driven by the announcement of a tax on bond interest income, which may lead institutional investors to seek alternative high-dividend assets like bank stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares bank stocks have seen significant increases, with Pudong Development Bank rising over 4% and Agricultural Bank of China rising over 2%, reaching new highs [1] - The Tianhong Bank ETF (515290) increased by 1.5% as a result of the bank stock rally [1] - The banking sector had a decline in July, with the China Securities Bank Index dropping over 7% from July 11 to July 31, indicating potential for a rebound [1] Group 2: Tax Policy Impact - The announcement from two departments to resume the collection of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8 is expected to have a slight negative impact on bank profits, according to UBS [1] - The tax on new bonds may prompt insurance capital, which is a significant holder of bonds, to seek alternative investments, potentially increasing demand for high-dividend stocks such as bank shares [1] Group 3: ETF and Fund Details - The Tianhong Bank ETF tracks the China Securities Bank Index and includes 42 listed banks in A-shares, with a composition of 25.6% large state-owned banks, 44.4% joint-stock banks, 24.1% city commercial banks, and 5.9% rural commercial banks [2] - The latest scale of the Tianhong Bank ETF is 5.747 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 78.2 million shares year-to-date, positioning it among the top in its category [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8 [1] - Interest income from bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity [1] - Retail investors have a monthly bond purchase limit of 100,000 yuan, with interest income exempt from VAT [1] Group 2 - The impact of VAT resumption on banks is expected to be minor, with an average revenue impact of 0.5% and a net profit impact of 1.3% for the Chinese banking sector [1] - Regional banks may experience a slightly larger impact [1] - Banks can mitigate the effects through investment strategy adjustments and tax optimization [1] Group 3 - Market sentiment may be influenced by expectations of tightening fiscal policy [1] - UBS recommends H-shares of major banks such as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and CITIC Bank, which have dividend yields of approximately 5% or higher [1] - For A-shares, UBS recommends China Merchants Bank [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 544.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, while a new tax policy on bond interest income will take effect from August 8, 2025, impacting the bond market significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - The new tax policy will impose a value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, with a 6% rate for financial institutions and 3% for public funds [1][3]. - Existing bonds issued before August 8, 2025, will continue to enjoy tax exemption until maturity, creating a tax advantage for these bonds and potentially widening the yield spread between new and old bonds by 5-10 basis points [3][4]. - The credit bond market may benefit as the tax burden on interest income remains unchanged, leading to a potential narrowing of credit spreads compared to interest rate bonds [3]. Group 2: Fund Management Implications - Public funds may gain a relative advantage over proprietary accounts due to the new tax structure, as public funds will face a lower VAT rate on interest income compared to proprietary accounts [3][4]. - The scarcity premium of tax-exempt existing bonds is expected to be released quickly, while the attractiveness of these bonds may lead to a decrease in their yields [4][5]. - New bonds may need to increase their coupon rates to compensate for the tax burden, with estimates suggesting a rise of approximately 10-11 basis points for 10-year government bonds to maintain net interest income parity with existing bonds [5].

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.07%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[1] - In July, the ECI supply index averaged 50.11%, down 0.05 percentage points from June, and the demand index averaged 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[1] - The real estate market saw a 18.6% year-on-year decline in sales area for new homes in 30 major cities, totaling 6.49 million square meters in July[1] Bond Market and Tax Adjustments - The ELI index is at -0.72%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight recovery in liquidity for the real economy[1] - The adjustment of the bond value-added tax may lead to increased allocation of funds to non-financial corporate bonds and other real economy assets[1] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the issuance of technology innovation bonds in the third quarter, focusing on structural monetary policy tools[1] Market Trends and Risks - The export index remains resilient, with port cargo throughput maintaining high levels, although there are concerns about the impact of new tariffs on re-export trade[1] - The report highlights risks including uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the sustainability of improvements in the real estate market[1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The restoration of VAT on some bonds is a one - time policy that does not affect the bond market trend. The new bond interest rate may increase by 2.8 - 5.4bps, and the new - old bond spread may be around 5.6 - 10.8bp [1][3] - The VAT restoration may increase total tax revenue by about 31.55 billion yuan. Banks' tax burden increase is the most obvious, and the tax scale increase of treasury bonds and local bonds is the most significant [2][16] - It is negative for newly - issued interest - rate bonds and newly - issued Tier 2 capital bonds, and positive for general credit bonds. It is beneficial for old bonds and negative for new bonds. Currently, the tax advantage of public funds in interest - rate bonds is strengthened, but there is a possibility of adjustment [3][18] - The central bank will optimize the bond market structure and institutional arrangements, and the tax system will be further optimized in the future. Whether the tax exemption advantage of public funds will be cancelled is a matter of future concern [4][19] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Tax Policy Adjustment - Since August 8, 2025, VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly - issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after this date. The interest income of bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity [1][7] Bond Investment Tax Calculation - For general taxpayers, the VAT rate for bond investment is 6%, and the VAT and surcharges combined rate is 6.34%. The enterprise income tax rate is 25%, and assuming a 6% VAT rate, the enterprise income tax is 23.42% of the taxable interest or transfer spread [8] Previous Tax Preferences - Specific tax types: Interest income from treasury bonds and local government bonds is exempt from VAT and income tax; the income tax rate of railway bonds is halved; policy - financial bonds are exempt from individual income tax [9] - Specific institutions: Interest income from financial inter - bank transactions is exempt from VAT; public funds' interest income is exempt from income tax, and transfer income is exempt from VAT and income tax; asset management product managers use a simplified VAT calculation method [9] Post - adjustment Tax Rates - Public funds and other asset management products' VAT rate on interest income from newly - issued bonds after August 8, 2025 is 3.26%, while banks' self - operated investment in such bonds has a VAT rate of 6.34% [9][10] Impact on Different Institutions - It is generally negative for all types of institutions, with banks' self - operated tax cost increasing the most. The estimated VAT scale for banks' self - operated investment in newly - issued bonds is 232.73 billion yuan [14][15] Impact on Different Bond Types - Negative for newly - issued interest - rate bonds and newly - issued Tier 2 capital bonds, positive for general credit bonds. Negative for new bonds and positive for old bonds [3][18] Future Outlook - The central bank will optimize the bond market structure and institutional arrangements, and the tax system will be further optimized. Whether the tax exemption advantage of public funds will be cancelled needs to be continuously observed [4][19]