Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global economic outlook, particularly focusing on trade relations, fiscal policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for the second half of 2025 [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Expectations**: There is an expectation that trade relations will ease in the second half of 2025, leading to a recovery in risk assets and an overall improvement in the global economic landscape [1][4]. - **Trade War Dynamics**: The intervention of the judiciary is seen as a turning point, signaling the end of the intense phase of the trade war, which may accelerate trade negotiations between the Trump administration and other countries [4][5]. - **Key Contradictions**: The market will face three main contradictions: the outlook on tariffs, the lagging impact of tariffs on the economy, and interpretations of the Federal Reserve and fiscal policies [2][14]. - **Federal Reserve Actions**: The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance, including potential interest rate cuts and halting quantitative tightening, to support the economy [10][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Tariff Impact**: Current tariff rates are significantly higher than those in 2018-2019, raising concerns about their negative impact on the economy, which may manifest more clearly in the third quarter of 2025 [7][8]. - **Fiscal Concerns**: While there are ongoing worries about the U.S. fiscal deficit, the actual situation may not be as dire as anticipated, particularly as some deficit components are due to previous tax cuts rather than new spending [11][12]. - **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: It is suggested to overweight equities and commodities in the second half of 2025, as the market is likely to shift towards expectations of economic recovery [15]. Additional Insights - **Gold Performance**: The outlook for gold is less favorable, with expectations of a 10% to 20% pullback due to high current prices and reduced geopolitical tensions [16][17]. - **Currency Trends**: In the context of a global economic recovery, the U.S. dollar is expected to weaken, while the Chinese yuan may remain stable or appreciate, benefiting Chinese assets [18].

报告导读： 2025年6月美联储继续按兵不动，但是滞胀预期加剧，美联储货币政策等待 情绪浓厚，我们提示降息预期存在进一步收窄的风险，短期可能进入滞胀交易，复苏交 易要到下半年减税法案、债务上限提高等陆续落地。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 短期美国通胀数据尚未明显反映关税影响，预计后续通胀上行持续掣肘降息，警惕降息预期进一步收窄。 后续美国通胀中枢大概率会进一步抬升，一方面关税对于美国通胀的影响尚未体现出来，主要是由于前期 抢进口积累了大量的库存，随着库存的逐渐消耗，关税对价格的影响将逐渐体现出来；二是中东问题短期 难见缓和，导致石油等大宗商品价格上升，从而对后续通胀构成更大威胁。当前美联储和美国联邦基金利 率期货市场均预期年内2次降息。如果随着新一轮减税法案落地，美国经济受到相对提振，同时通胀难以 下行，后续降息预期可能会进一步收窄，我们提示，警惕全年不降息的风险。 报告名称： 滞胀担忧增加，美联储按兵不动——2025年6月美联储议息会议点评 报告日期：2025.06.19 报告作者： 梁中华 （分析师)，登记编号： S0880525040019 汪浩 （分析师），登记编号： S0880 ...