文｜《 BUG 》栏目 张奥 一台护眼灯，官方旗舰店是 417 元，而在李佳琦的直播间中，其券后价格为 421 元，反 而更贵了； 一款电褥子，官方价为 82.93 元，在李佳琦直播间中叠加各种券，最后的成交价为 132.65 元； …… 今年"双十一"提前打响，各大平台及头部主播打得热火朝天。数据显示，天猫双 11 大促首 日，李佳琦直播间双 11 首小时加购 GMV 同比保持增长，美妆、母婴、时尚、食品等细分 品类增长显著。大促首日， 39 个产品销量超 10 万件，其中超六成产品为美妆。 然而，在光鲜亮丽的数据背后，李佳琦口碑却面临"崩塌"，"价格不再便宜"的标签再次被 贴上。 今年"双十一"已经打响，曾经的"美妆一哥"李佳琦口碑面临"崩塌"。在社交平台上，网友 们给其贴上了"不再便宜"的标签。 同时，该直播间还出现了"预付比现货还贵"的情况。有网友发现，辛苦凑红包、集优惠券 的骆驼羽绒服预付订单，居然比直接购买还要贵。 有消费者总结称："如今的李佳琦直播间变了，比价比不过，还容易背刺消费者，没必要再 蹲了。"还有美妆产品忠实消费者称："之前折扣力度确实很大，产品质量也有保证，但今 年体感比较差。" 截 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival has evolved into a "shopping season," with platforms simplifying discount rules while intensifying competition in instant retail and overseas strategies [1][5]. Group 1: Extended Cycle and Simplified Rules - This year's "Double Eleven" started earlier than ever, with a promotional period exceeding one month, reflecting platforms' eagerness for sales while potentially diminishing consumer urgency [3][5]. - Major platforms have adopted straightforward discount strategies, such as "automatic deductions" and "official reductions," moving away from complex rules [5][6]. - Most platforms are offering discounts around 15% to 17% off, with common promotions like "300 off 50," indicating that the overall discount intensity remains similar to previous years [6]. Group 2: Focus on Instant Retail - Instant retail has emerged as a key battleground for platforms, driven by enhanced delivery capabilities from the "takeout war" [7][8]. - The market for instant retail is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with younger consumers increasingly valuing delivery speed and convenience [8]. - Platforms are integrating instant retail into their promotions, with initiatives like Tmall's "nearby flash purchase" and JD's incentive programs for instant retail merchants [8]. Group 3: New Narrative in Overseas Expansion - The overseas strategy has become a new narrative for competition among platforms, with Tmall launching a comprehensive overseas initiative and investing 1 billion yuan in marketing across 20 countries [9][10]. - Platforms are facilitating easier overseas entry for small businesses, allowing them to maintain pricing and inventory control without the need for overseas teams [12]. - The competition among platforms is shifting towards ecosystem collaboration, technology-driven efficiency, and sustainable user value operations [12].

Market Overview - On October 14, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.62%, the CSI 300 decreased by 1.2%, the STAR 50 dropped by 4.26%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.95%, the ChiNext Index fell by 3.99%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.73% [4] - The best-performing sectors on October 14 were banking (+2.51%), coal (+2.18%), food and beverage (+1.69%), transportation (+0.5%), and utilities (+0.49%). The worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-4.98%), electronics (-4.64%), non-ferrous metals (-3.66%), computers (-2.98%), and electrical equipment (-2.36%) [4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on October 14 was 25,966 billion, with a net inflow of 8.603 billion HKD from southbound funds [4] Key Insights Cosmetic Industry - The cosmetic market is expected to continue low single-digit growth in Q4, with brand differentiation increasing. New consumer brands are recommended as they have upward momentum and room for valuation switching towards 2026 [5] - New consumer brands are anticipated to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 20%-30% in revenue and profit over the next 2-3 years, maintaining attractiveness in terms of market conditions and certainty [6] Computer Industry - The rise of domestic computing power and the application of AI are highlighted as key trends. The large-scale implementation of large language models is still pending breakthroughs [9] - The domestic computing power supply chain is gradually taking shape, driven by revenue growth from domestic computing power manufacturers like Cambrian. The acceleration of multimodal large model applications is expected to lead to commercial implementation in the video sector [9] - The market perceives that large-scale model implementation still faces challenges, but advancements like Sora 2.0 are expected to break through physical simulation barriers, potentially generating commercial value in video generation [10]

Industry Overview - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year. Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 35,575 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.7% [2] - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 323,906 billion yuan, increasing by 4.6%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales were 292,643 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.1% [2] - By consumption type, in August, the retail sales of goods were 35,172 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%, while catering revenue was 4,496 billion yuan, increasing by 2.1% [2] E-commerce and Online Retail - From January to August, the online retail sales reached 99,828 billion yuan, growing by 9.6%. Among this, the physical goods online retail sales were 80,964 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.4%, accounting for 25.0% of total retail sales [3] - Categories such as food, clothing, and daily necessities saw growth rates of 15.0%, 2.4%, and 5.7% respectively [3] Consumer Trends - The consumer market in China is showing a moderate recovery, with a clear structural characteristic in consumption growth. Online channels are significantly driving this growth, and service consumption remains active [3] - The beauty and personal care sector is experiencing a shift towards functional skincare, domestic brands, and premium products, with leading brands achieving high growth despite market challenges [4] Investment Opportunities - Recent additions to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list include several retail and light manufacturing stocks, which may see increased liquidity and trading opportunities [5] - The beauty care industry is witnessing a shift towards rational consumption, with consumers focusing more on product quality and cost-effectiveness, benefiting domestic brands [5] - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays are expected to boost the tourism retail sector, with a focus on online travel platforms, theme parks, and chain hotels [6] Recommendations - Maintain an "overweight" rating on the retail industry, with a focus on newly added Hong Kong stocks in the retail sector and domestic beauty brands during the Double Eleven pre-sale period [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The retail sector experienced a 4.32% decline last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.39 percentage points [4][9] - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the retail sector is 40.68X, down 1.85 percentage points from the previous week, with a one-year range of 27.98X to 43.58X [5][17] - The retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, with significant contributions from online channels and service consumption [6][20] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The retail sector's index closed at 2,384.72 points, ranking 29th among Shenwan's primary industries [4][9] - The sector's absolute return over the past 12 months is 38.0%, while the relative return is 9.7% [3] Industry Valuation - The current Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is 1.96X, with a one-year range of 1.36X to 2.1X [5][18] Industry Dynamics - In August, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4%, with a total of 39,668 billion yuan, and online retail sales increased by 9.6% [6][20] - The beauty and personal care segment showed a mild recovery, with retail sales reaching 34.9 billion yuan in August, up 5.1% year-on-year [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end domestic beauty brands and tourism-related retail sectors as potential investment opportunities [7][24] - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to boost sales for domestic beauty brands, particularly high-end products [24][25]

阿里季度盈利下滑，股价下跌。 尽管三季度收入增长不及预期，经调整净利润下滑约 9%，阿里巴巴（BABA.N）财报发布后，美 股盘前依然一度涨约 5%。 同一天国家统计局发布数据称，中国 10 月社会零售品总额同比增长 4.8%、增速环比上月加快 1.6 个百分点，尤其是国补和双十一启动时间提前带动下，家电类商品零售额增长近 40%。宏观消费 数据超预期，带动中概股美股盘前普涨。 阿里自己最近也跌太多了。从 10 月初高点以来，阿里股价下跌超 20%。既因为更早拿到国补的京 东在 9 月带走家电份额，也反映市场担忧阿里对于今年双十一的较大投入影响四季度利润。 业绩会上，阿里高管用 "强劲增长" 形容双十一 GMV，用 "整体超预期" 形容大商家的双十一表 现，还判断政府的消费刺激政策只是刚刚开始，但除此之外的指引和回答大多较为笼统。电话会结 束后，阿里股价由涨转跌。 蚂蚁二季度利润增长 193%。 泡泡玛特再次联名可口可乐。 这次联名的是泡泡玛特（9992.HK）大热 IP "LABUBU"，发售时间为 11 月 21 日 22:00。两年前， 可口可乐（COKE.O）也曾与泡泡玛特的另一 IP "MOLLY" ...