Abstract 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 2025年三季度印尼经济展望 宏观：2025年二季度增长提速 2025年二季度，印尼经济加速增长，GDP增速达5.12%，为2023年中以来的最大增幅，超出彭博一致预期的4.8%。我们认为强劲的家庭支出和基建投资放 量是主要增长动能，要维持此增长势头，政策应侧重于以下几个方面：1）采取谨慎的货币宽松政策，以稳定印尼盾并控制输入型通胀；2）实行刺激家庭 支出的财政政策；3）战略性贸易改革应持续聚焦吸引外资、发展高附加值产业，以增强长期韧性，促进出口多元化。 关税：对美新协定降低风险 2025年8月起美 国对印 尼加征19%"对等关税"， 此举使印尼在东盟国家中处于较为有利地位，缓解了短期出口风险。印尼已与美国签署数项协议，包括关 键矿产零关税、340亿美元能源及农产品采购谅解备忘录（MoU）、以及波音飞机订单；同时，双方对于棕榈油、橡胶等大宗商品的出口谈判仍在进行。 财政刺激与宽松周期：双管齐下促增长 为重振国内需求， 印尼于2025年6–7月推出了一项15亿美元的财政刺激计划， 这是今年内的第二轮举措。第三套刺激方案正处于酝酿阶段，意在刺激年底 假期出行和交通， ...

Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 5, 2025, the State-Owned Enterprise Win-Win ETF (159719) increased by 0.26%, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 1.52 yuan [1] - The trading volume for the State-Owned Enterprise Win-Win ETF was 1.81%, with a transaction value of 2.0078 million yuan, and the average daily transaction over the past year was 17.5677 million yuan [1] - The China Securities Index for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development (931000) rose by 0.34%, with significant increases in constituent stocks such as South Network Energy (9.92%) and Shenghong Technology (6.61%) [1] Group 2: Corporate Restructuring - On June 5, multiple companies disclosed the restructuring progress of China Weaponry Equipment Group Co., Ltd., which received approval from the State Council to implement a split, with its automotive business becoming an independent central enterprise [2] - The restructuring is expected to enhance Changan Automobile's focus on its core automotive business and improve its competitive edge, allowing for a more flexible operational mechanism and stronger resource integration capabilities [2] - Dongfeng Motor Corporation has postponed its restructuring, likely due to its own business integration needs and market strategy considerations, retaining more autonomy for adjustments [2] Group 3: Index Composition - The Greater Bay Area ETF closely tracks the China Securities Index for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 53.21% of the index [4] - The State-Owned Enterprise Win-Win ETF tracks the FTSE China State-Owned Enterprises Open Win-Win Index, which consists of 100 constituent stocks, including 80 A-share companies and 20 Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong [4] - The top ten constituent stocks of the State-Owned Enterprise Win-Win ETF are all "Chinese state-owned" stocks, including China Petroleum, China Sinopec, and China Construction [4]