Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "sideways", and for government bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market oscillated and closed lower yesterday, with TMT performing well and coal and power equipment sectors correcting. The overall market is expected to be range - bound in the short term as the liquidity-driven market since June ended and the focus returns to fundamentals. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery, and overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. - Government bond futures closed higher yesterday. The central bank's actions and economic expectations have a positive impact on the bond market, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances. The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market closed down with Wind All - A dropping 0.93% and a trading volume of 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices all declined. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the tech sector, but they lack catalysts and have entered a sideways trend since November. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. Government Bond Futures - Yesterday, government bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising. The central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 37 billion yuan. DR001 rose 2BP to 1.53%, and DR007 remained flat at 1.52%. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is positive for the bond market. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances, and the bond market is expected to oscillate [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On November 18, 2025, IH dropped 0.39% to 2,997.6, IF dropped 0.58% to 4,555.0, IC dropped 0.89% to 7,079.8, and IM dropped 0.58% to 7,351.8 compared to November 17 [3]. Stock Indices - The SSE 50 dropped 0.30% to 3,003.0, the CSI 300 dropped 0.65% to 4,568.2, the CSI 500 dropped 1.17% to 7,151.0, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.00% to 7,448.1 on November 18, 2025, compared to November 17 [3]. Government Bond Futures - On November 18, 2025, TS rose 0.01% to 102.49, TF rose 0.01% to 105.92, T rose 0.01% to 108.50, and TL rose 0.07% to 116.53 compared to November 17 [3] 3. Market News - As of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims was 1,957,000, up from 1,947,000 the previous week. The US Federal government shutdown led to a lack of regular weekly data [4]. - China's Foreign Ministry held consultations with Japan's officials. China sternly protested against Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on China, urging Japan to retract the remarks and stop causing trouble on China - related issues [4] 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective basis trends [6][7][9] Government Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of government bond futures main contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund rates [13][14][19] Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [22][23][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the diverse opportunities and risks in the futures market, emphasizing the differentiation between bullish and bearish trends across various sectors, particularly in stock indices and certain commodities like iron ore and sugar [43]. Group 1: Stock Index Futures - Key bullish varieties include the CSI 500 futures (IC) and CSI 1000 futures (IM), indicating a "Good Curve Long" signal, while the CSI 300 futures (IF) show a "Curve Long" signal and the SSE 50 futures (IH) are "Maybe Curve Long," suggesting an overall bullish sentiment [2]. - The market is currently in a "Consolidation" phase, indicating a period of adjustment [3]. - The volatility of stock index futures is relatively low, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 1.4 and 5.0, and a moderate rolling Sharpe ratio of approximately 0.2 to 0.7, indicating active trading with manageable volatility [4]. - High positive correlation exists among IH, IF, IC, and IM, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.68 to 0.94, reflecting strong interconnectivity within the sector [5]. - Investment opportunities lie in bullish positions for IC and IM due to strong curve structures and high annualized rolling returns (IC at 7.35%, IM at 10.69%), while IF and IH serve as auxiliary bullish positions suitable for low-cost accumulation during consolidation [6]. - The core logic suggests that small-cap stocks are relatively strong, benefiting from structural policy support and growth expectations, although the overall market lacks trend momentum and requires a breakout signal [8]. Group 2: Government Bond Futures - No clear curve signals are present for 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) government bond futures, with all market states classified as "Consolidation" [9]. - Annualized rolling returns are negative (TS -0.26%, TF -0.26%, T -0.02%, TL 0.54%), indicating yield pressure [9]. - The volatility is low, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.0004 and 0.0027, and a varied rolling Sharpe ratio (TS at 0.43, T at 0.01), reflecting subdued trading activity and weak returns [10]. - Given the lack of clear direction, it is advised to remain observant or engage in light arbitrage, such as utilizing term spread changes [11]. - The core logic indicates that economic recovery and inflation expectations suppress the bond market, while safe-haven demand provides support, leading to a continued oscillating pattern [13]. Group 3: Precious Metals - Both gold (AU) and silver (AG) are classified as "Maybe Curve Short," but the market state is "Long," indicating a divergence between technical indicators and market conditions [14]. - Annualized rolling returns are negative (AU -2.24%, AG -2.11%), reflecting a bearish curve structure [14]. - The volatility is moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio around 0.017 to 0.021, and low rolling Sharpe ratios (AU 0.08, AG 0.06), indicating active trading but poor returns [15]. - Cautious bearish positions are suggested, with attention to potential short-selling opportunities after rebounds or utilizing AU-AG price spread arbitrage [16]. - The core logic suggests that actual interest rates and dollar strength dominate prices, with a bearish technical outlook but support from safe-haven sentiment, leading to short-term weakness [18]. Group 4: Base Metals - Copper (CU) and international copper (BC) show no curve signals, with market states classified as "Long" or "Consolidation"; zinc (ZN) is "Maybe Curve Long," while nickel (NI) is "Short" [19]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (CU -0.28%, ZN 2.14%, NI -0.87%) [19]. - The volatility is moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.005 and 0.011, and generally low rolling Sharpe ratios (CU 0.02, ZN 0.24), indicating stable trading [20]. - Zinc presents a clear long opportunity due to its bullish curve and positive returns, while nickel's clear bearish trend suggests short-selling at high points [21]. - The core logic indicates that supply-demand balance drives prices, with support from Chinese infrastructure and new energy demand for copper and zinc, but uncertainties arise from inventory levels and macro sentiment [23]. Group 5: Black Metals - Iron ore (I) is identified as "Good Curve Long," while coking coal (JM) is "Good Curve Short," and both coke (J) and rebar (RB) are "Maybe Curve Short" [24]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (I 6.49%, JM -5.35%) [25]. - The volatility is relatively high, with a Vol/Roll ratio around 0.010 to 0.024, and moderate rolling Sharpe ratios (I 0.39, JM 0.14), indicating active trading [26]. - Iron ore presents significant bullish opportunities, supported by positive returns and curve backing, while coking coal and coke show clear bearish trends suitable for short-selling [27]. - The core logic suggests that environmental policies and production cut expectations support iron ore, while weak terminal demand suppresses coking coal and coke, leading to notable sector differentiation [29]. Group 6: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil (SC) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) are "Curve Long," while fuel oil (FU) is "Good Curve Long" but in a "Short" market state, and asphalt (BU) is "Curve Long" but also "Short" [30]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (SC 3.31%, FU 6.76%, BU 3.09%) [31]. - The volatility is moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.014 and 0.026, and varied rolling Sharpe ratios (SC 0.14, FU 0.29), indicating strong interconnectivity within the sector [32]. - High-value bullish positions are recommended for SC and LU, benefiting from curve support and positive returns, while FU and BU require cautious validation due to their bearish market states [33]. - The core logic indicates that global crude oil supply-demand tightness supports prices, but downstream demand differentiation and chemical products are influenced by both cost and demand factors [36]. Group 7: Agricultural Products - Sugar (SR) is "Curve Long," soybean (A) is "Maybe Curve Long," palm oil (P) is "Good Curve Long" but in a "Short" market state, while rapeseed oil (OI) and rapeseed meal (RM) are "Maybe Curve Short," and live hogs (LH) and eggs (JD) are "Curve Short" [37]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (SR 3.58%, P 7.81%, LH -3.64%) [37]. - The volatility ranges from low to moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.004 and 0.015, and moderate rolling Sharpe ratios (SR 0.56, LH 0.16) [38]. - Clear bullish opportunities exist for sugar and soybean, benefiting from curve support and positive returns, while palm oil's bullish curve requires waiting for stronger signals, and live hogs and eggs show clear bearish trends suitable for short-selling [40]. - The core logic indicates that supply-side factors (planting area, yield) and demand-side factors (feed, consumption) dominate, with significant differentiation among varieties and a need to monitor seasonal factors and global trade flows [42].

Report Title - Full Variety Spread Daily Report [4] Report Date - November 12, 2025 [3] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF601) spot price is 5488, futures price is 5608, with a basis of 120 and a basis rate of 2.19% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM601) has a conversion price of 6517 [1] - Rebar (RB2601) spot price is 3190, futures price is 3055, with a basis of 135 and a basis rate of 4.36% [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601) spot price is 3260, futures price is 3242, with a basis of 18 and a basis rate of 0.56% [1] - Iron ore (I2601) spot price is 763, futures price is 836, with a basis of 73 and a basis rate of 8.73% [1] - Coke (J2601) spot price is 1685, futures price is 1689, with a basis of - 4 and a basis rate of - 0.24% [1] - Coking coal (JM2601) spot price is 1321, futures price is 1213, with a basis of 108 and a basis rate of 8.9% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2512) spot price is 86765, futures price is 86630, with a basis of 135 and a basis rate of 0.16% [1] - Aluminum (AL2601) spot price is 21620, futures price is 21665, with a basis of - 45 and a basis rate of - 0.21% [1] - Alumina (AO2601) spot price is 2854, futures price is 2816, with a basis of 38 and a basis rate of 1.35% [1] - Zinc (ZN2512) spot price is 22590, futures price is 22675, with a basis of - 85 and a basis rate of - 0.37% [1] - Tin (SN2512) spot price is 287700, futures price is 288180, with a basis of - 480 and a basis rate of - 0.17% [1] - Nickel (NI2512) spot price is 119900, futures price is 119380, with a basis of 520 and a basis rate of 0.44% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2512) spot price is 12920, futures price is 12465, with a basis of 455 and a basis rate of 3.65% [1] - Lithium carbonate (LC2601) spot price is 86540, futures price is 82300, with a basis of 4240 and a basis rate of 5.14% [1] - Industrial silicon (SI2601) spot price is 9500, futures price is 9180, with a basis of 320 and a basis rate of 3.49% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2512) spot price is 948.9, futures price is 946.5, with a basis of 2.4 and a basis rate of 0.25% [1] - Silver (AG2512) spot price is 11880, futures price is 11865, with a basis of 15 and a basis rate of 0.13% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2601) spot price is 3054, futures price is 3000, with a basis of 54 and a basis rate of 1.77% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2601) spot price is 8450, futures price is 8238, with a basis of 212 and a basis rate of 2.57% [1] - Palm oil (P2601) spot price is 8770, futures price is 8730, with a basis of 40 and a basis rate of 0.46% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM601) spot price is 2620, futures price is 2500, with a basis of 120 and a basis rate of 4.8% [1] - Rapeseed oil (OI601) spot price is 10120, futures price is 9775, with a basis of 345 and a basis rate of 3.41% [1] - Corn (C2601) spot price is 2180, futures price is 2177, with a basis of 3 and a basis rate of 0.14% [1] - Corn starch (CS2601) spot price is 2550, futures price is 2490, with a basis of 60 and a basis rate of 2.41% [1] - Live pigs (LH2601) spot price is 12050, futures price is 11755, with a basis of 295 and a basis rate of 2.51% [1] - Eggs (JD2512) spot price is 3152, futures price is 2840, with a basis of 312 and a basis rate of 10.57% [1] - Cotton (CF601) spot price is 14668, futures price is 13560, with a basis of 1108 and a basis rate of 8.17% [1] - Sugar (SR601) spot price is 5760, futures price is 5480, with a basis of 280 and a basis rate of 5.11% [1] - Apples (AP601) spot price is 9229, futures price is 8840, with a basis of 389 and a basis rate of 4.21% [1] - Red dates (CJ601) spot price is 9495, futures price is 9000, with a basis of 495 and a basis rate of 5.21% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX601) spot price is 6735, futures price is 6756, with a basis of - 21 and a basis rate of - 0.31% [1] - PTA (TA601) spot price is 4585, futures price is 4648, with a basis of - 63 and a basis rate of - 1.36% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2601) spot price is 3875, futures price is 4020, with a basis of - 145 and a basis rate of - 3.61% [1] - Polyester staple fiber (PF602) spot price is 6325, futures price is 6152, with a basis of 173 and a basis rate of 2.81% [1] - Styrene (EB2512) spot price is 6231, futures price is 6285, with a basis of - 54 and a basis rate of - 0.86% [1] - Methanol (MA601) spot price is 2082, futures price is 2060, with a basis of 22 and a basis rate of 1.06% [1] - Urea (UR601) spot price is 1610, futures price is 1640, with a basis of - 30 and a basis rate of - 1.86% [1] - LLDPE (L2601) spot price is 6865, futures price is 6760, with a basis of 105 and a basis rate of 1.55% [1] - PP (PP2601) spot price is 6429, futures price is 6500, with a basis of - 71 and a basis rate of - 1.1% [1] - PVC (V2601) spot price is 4572, futures price is 4510, with a basis of 62 and a basis rate of 1.36% [1] - Caustic soda (SH601) spot price is 2468.8, futures price is 2357, with a basis of 111.8 and a basis rate of 4.74% [1] - LPG (PG2512) spot price is 4498, futures price is 4324, with a basis of 174 and a basis rate of 4.02% [1] - Asphalt (BU2601) spot price is 3000, futures price is 3050, with a basis of - 50 and a basis rate of - 1.64% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2601) spot price is 10240, futures price is 10200, with a basis of 40 and a basis rate of 0.39% [1] - Glass (FG601) spot price is 1053, futures price is 1032, with a basis of 21 and a basis rate of 2.03% [1] - Soda ash (SA601) spot price is 1176, futures price is 1215, with a basis of - 39 and a basis rate of - 3.32% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2601) spot price is 15095, futures price is 14700, with a basis of 395 and a basis rate of 2.69% [1] Financial Futures - IF2512.CFE spot price is 4652.2, futures price is 4626.8, with a basis of 25.4 and a basis rate of 0.55% [1] - IH2512.CFE spot price is 3034.6, futures price is 3033, with a basis of 1.6 and a basis rate of 0.05% [1] - IC2512.CFE spot price is 7291.6, futures price is 7173, with a basis of 118.6 and a basis rate of 1.64% [1] - IM2512.CFE spot price is 7540.8, futures price is 7390.4, with a basis of 150.4 and a basis rate of 2.03% [1] - 2 - year bond (TS2512) spot price is 102.46, futures price is 100.04, with a basis of 2.42 and a basis rate of 2.41% [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2512) spot price is 105.94, futures price is 99.61, with a basis of 6.33 and a basis rate of 6.07% [1] - 10 - year bond (T2512) spot price is 106.55, futures price is 108.5, with a basis of - 1.95 and a basis rate of - 1.83% [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2512) spot price is 131.32, futures price is 116.34, with a basis of 14.98 and a basis rate of 12.88% [1]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Sector - Key Products: CSI 500 Futures (IC), CSI 1000 Futures (IM) - Bullish Outlook: Clear bullish sentiment supported by trading volume and open interest structure, but caution is advised for potential high-level pullbacks [1][2] Group 2: Government Bond Futures Sector - Key Products: 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - Market Sentiment: Overall consolidation with a slight bearish bias [3][4] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - Key Products: Gold (AU), Silver (AG) - Market Sentiment: Bearish consolidation; IC and IM show "Good Curve Long" structure with annualized rolling returns of 7.5% and 10.98%, significantly higher than SSE 50 and CSI 300 [5][6] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions or add on dips, focusing on long-dated contracts of IC and IM; cross-product arbitrage suggested [5][6] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Key Products: Copper (CU), Aluminum (AL), Zinc (ZN) - Market Sentiment: Significant differentiation; Aluminum shows the strongest fundamentals with tight supply-demand dynamics [9][10] - Trading Strategy: Long Aluminum and short Copper to capitalize on supply-demand gaps; light long positions in Zinc [9][10] Group 5: Black Metals Sector - Key Products: Iron Ore (I), Rebar (RB), Coking Coal (J) - Market Sentiment: Bearish outlook with negative returns for rebar and coking coal, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [13][14] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - Key Products: Crude Oil (SC), Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU), Asphalt (BU), Rubber (RU) - Market Sentiment: Significant differentiation; Crude Oil and Low Sulfur Fuel Oil benefit from geopolitical factors and shipping demand [15][18] - Trading Strategy: Long SC/LU and short RU to exploit energy versus chemical dynamics [15][18] Group 7: Agricultural Products Sector - Key Products: Soybean Meal (M), Soybean Oil (Y), Palm Oil (P), Live Hogs (LH) - Market Sentiment: Overall bullish; soybean oil and palm oil benefit from biodiesel demand and weather disturbances in South America [21][22] - Trading Strategy: Long soybean oil/palm oil and short soybean meal to capitalize on oil-meal ratios; short live hogs due to oversupply [21][22] Group 8: Soft Commodities and Specialty Products - Key Products: Sugar (SR), Cotton (CF), Urea (UR), Industrial Silicon (SI) - Market Sentiment: Mixed; Urea supported by agricultural demand while Industrial Silicon faces supply pressure [27][28] - Trading Strategy: Long Urea and short Industrial Silicon to leverage agricultural demand against industrial supply [27][28] Group 9: Summary of Trading Strategies and Risk Control Recommendations - Long positions recommended in IC, IM, Urea, Aluminum, and oilseeds; short positions in Copper, Rebar, Rubber, Live Hogs, and Industrial Silicon [30]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Report Title: Daily Spread Report for All Varieties [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and GF Futures Research Institute [4] Core Viewpoints - The report presents the basis, spot prices, futures prices, basis rates, and historical quantiles of various commodities and financial instruments, including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial derivatives. It provides a comprehensive snapshot of the market conditions for these products on the reporting date [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: The basis is - 8, the spot price is 5578, the futures price is 5586, and the basis rate is - 0.14%. The historical quantile is 55.70% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The basis is 92, the spot price is 5798, the futures price is 5890, and the basis rate is 1.59%. The historical quantile is 42.70% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The basis is 14, the spot price (HRB400 20mm in Shanghai) is 3037, the futures price is 3190, and the basis rate is 0.43%. The historical quantile is 23.40% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The basis is not clearly presented, the spot price is not detailed, and the futures price is 3256 [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The basis is - 44, the spot price (62.5% Brazilian mixed powder at Rizhao Port) is 1777, the futures price is 1732, and the basis rate is - 2.49%. The historical quantile is 50.80% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The basis is - 44, the spot price (quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port) is 1777, the futures price is 1732, and the basis rate is - 2.49%. The historical quantile is 41.48% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The basis is 83, the spot price (S1.3 G75 main coking coal at Shaheyi) is 1291, the futures price is 1373, and the basis rate is 6.39%. The historical quantile is 46.80% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: The basis is - 325, the spot price (SMM cathode copper average price) is 85995, the futures price is 86320, and the basis rate is - 0.38%. The historical quantile is 18.54% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: The basis is - 270, the spot price (SMM A00 aluminum average price) is 21360, the futures price is 21630, and the basis rate is - 1.25%. The historical quantile is 2.08% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The basis is - 74, the spot price (SMM alumina index average price) is 2787, the futures price is 2861, and the basis rate is - 2.66%. The historical quantile is 46.25% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: The basis is - 245, the spot price (SMM 1 zinc ingot average price) is 22430, the futures price is 22675, and the basis rate is - 1.08%. The historical quantile is 7.50% [1]. - **Tin (SN2512)**: The basis is - 620, the spot price (SMM 1 tin average price) is 282800, the futures price is 283420, and the basis rate is - 0.22%. The historical quantile is 30.62% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2512)**: The basis is - 275, the spot price (SMM 1 imported nickel average price) is 119475, the futures price is 119750, and the basis rate is - 0.23%. The historical quantile is 39.58% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: The basis is 380, the spot price (304/2B at Wuxi Hongwang) is 12590, the futures price is 12970, and the basis rate is 3.02%. The historical quantile is 74.46% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The basis is 162, the spot price (Jiangsu Zhangjiagang ordinary protein soybean meal) is 3068, the futures price is 3000, and the basis rate is 5.40%. The historical quantile is 26.50% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (V2601)**: The basis is 34, the spot price (Jiangsu Zhangjiagang fourth - grade soybean oil) is 8350, the futures price is 8188, and the basis rate is 0.42%. The historical quantile is 34.80% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The basis is - 112, the spot price (delivery price at Huangpu Port) is 8620, the futures price is 8732, and the basis rate is - 1.28%. The historical quantile is 4.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The basis is 101, the spot price (Guangdong Zhanjiang ordinary rapeseed meal) is 2650, the futures price is 2549, and the basis rate is 3.96%. The historical quantile is 64.20% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: The basis is 286, the spot price (Jiangsu Nantong fourth - grade rapeseed oil) is 9850, the futures price is 9564, and the basis rate is 2.99%. The historical quantile is 79.60% [1]. - **Corn (C2601)**: The basis is - 4, the spot price (FOB price at Jinzhou Port) is 2150, the futures price is 2154, and the basis rate is - 0.19%. The historical quantile is 38.40% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: The basis is 81, the spot price (Jilin Changchun corn starch) is 2550, the futures price is 2469, and the basis rate is 3.28%. The historical quantile is 37.30% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: The basis is - 90, the spot price (Henan outer - ternary live hogs) is 11940, the futures price is 11850, and the basis rate is - 0.75%. The historical quantile is 41.40% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2512)**: The basis is - 497, the spot price (Hebei Shijiazhuang average price) is 2730, the futures price is 3227, and the basis rate is - 15.40%. The historical quantile is 7.10% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The basis is 1013, the spot price (Xinjiang 3128B cotton) is 13605, the futures price is 14618, and the basis rate is 7.45%. The historical quantile is 59.60% [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The basis is 272, the spot price (Liuzhou station white sugar) is 5720, the futures price is 5448, and the basis rate is 4.99%. The historical quantile is 45.00% [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: The basis is - 79, the spot price (delivery theoretical price) is 8919, the futures price is 8840, and the basis rate is - 0.89%. The historical quantile is 15.70% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: The basis is - 705, the spot price (Hebei first - grade gray dates) is 9705, the futures price is 9000, and the basis rate is - 7.26%. The historical quantile is 63.80% [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Paraxylene (PX601)**: The basis is - 40, the spot price (CFR price at Chinese main ports) is 6780, the futures price is 6820, and the basis rate is - 0.58%. The historical quantile is 12.00% [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The basis is - 148, the spot price (market price in East China) is 4540, the futures price is 4688, and the basis rate is - 3.16%. The historical quantile is 20.00% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The basis is - 76, the spot price (market price in East China) is 3924, the futures price is 4000, and the basis rate is - 1.90%. The historical quantile is 75.00% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF2512)**: The basis is 81, the spot price (market price in East China) is 6325, the futures price is 6244, and the basis rate is 1.29%. The historical quantile is 74.20% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2512)**: The basis is 0, the spot price (market price in East China) is 6300, the futures price is 6300, and the basis rate is 0%. The historical quantile is 4.75% [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: The basis is - 43, the spot price (market price in Jiangsu Taicang) is 2082, the futures price is 2125, and the basis rate is - 2.02%. The historical quantile is 54.50% [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: The basis is - 64, the spot price (market price in Shandong) is 1580, the futures price is 1644, and the basis rate is - 3.89%. The historical quantile is 5.60% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The basis is 70, the spot price (self - pick - up price in Shandong) is 6805, the futures price is 6875, and the basis rate is 1.02%. The historical quantile is 57.60% [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: The basis is 29, the spot price (self - pick - up price in Zhejiang) is 6500, the futures price is 6471, and the basis rate is 0.45%. The historical quantile is 49.00% [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: The basis is - 110, the spot price (market price in Changzhou) is 4520, the futures price is 4630, and the basis rate is - 2.38%. The historical quantile is 33.00% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The basis is 157, the spot price (market price in Shandong) is 2500, the futures price is 2343, and the basis rate is 6.69%. The historical quantile is 70.70% [1]. - **LPG (PG2512)**: The basis is 183, the spot price (market price in Guangzhou) is 4448, the futures price is 4265, and the basis rate is 4.29%. The historical quantile is 48.10% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: The basis is 9, the spot price (market price in Shandong) is 3100, the futures price is 3109, and the basis rate is 0.29%. The historical quantile is 93.40% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2601)**: The basis is - 105, the spot price (China National Petroleum Corporation East China) is 10305, the futures price is 10200, and the basis rate is - 1.02%. The historical quantile is 62.20% [1]. - **Float Glass (FG601)**: The basis is - 53, the spot price (market price in Shahe) is 1101, the futures price is 1048, and the basis rate is - 4.81%. The historical quantile is 58.40% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The basis is - 50, the spot price (market price in Shahe) is 1207, the futures price is 1157, and the basis rate is - 4.14%. The historical quantile is 21.21% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The basis is - 695, the spot price (market price in Shanghai) is 14350, the futures price is 15045, and the basis rate is - 4.62%. The historical quantile is 54.69% [1]. Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2512.CFE**: The basis is - 22.6, the spot price is 4693.4, the futures price is 4670.8, and the basis rate is - 0.48%. The historical quantile is 20.30% [1]. - **IH2512.CFE**: The basis is - 3.3, the spot price is 3044.7, the futures price is 3041.4, and the basis rate is - 0.11%. The historical quantile is 39.80% [1]. - **IC2512.CFE**: The basis is - 99.3, the spot price is 7345.7, the futures price is 7246.4, and the basis rate is - 1.37%. The historical quantile is 3.30% [1]. - **IM2512.CFE**: The basis is - 146.8, the spot price is 7551.8, the futures price is 7405, and the basis rate is - 1.98%. The historical quantile is 11.00% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **TS2512**: The basis is - 0.04, the spot price is 100.05, the futures price is 102.49, and the basis rate is - 0.04%. The historical quantile is 15.70% [1]. - **TF2512**: The basis is 0.08, the spot price is 108.55, the futures price is 105.96, and the basis rate is 0.08%. The historical quantile is 23.10% [1]. - **T2512**: The basis is 0.09, the spot price is 130.98, the futures price is 106.61, and the basis rate is 0.08%. The historical quantile is 26.30% [1]. - **TL2512**: The basis is 0.09, the spot price is 130.98, the futures price is 116.13

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 27, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, with the yields of 1Y - 7Y maturities declining by about 0.15 - 0.75bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities declining by about 0.20bp to 1.76% and 1.99% respectively. Treasury bond futures also strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.02%, 0.07%, 0.08%, and 0.24% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rose to around 1.51% and fluctuated. - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in July decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, and the profit decline has narrowed for two consecutive months. In July, industrial added value and social retail sales fell more than expected, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained stable. In July, the financial data showed structural differentiation, with government bonds continuing to support the increase in social financing, while the medium - and long - term financing momentum of enterprises and residents was still insufficient, and new loans turned negative. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies to expand service consumption in September, which will promote the recovery of consumption growth. Overseas, the Fed Chairman's speech at the central bank annual meeting increased market bets on a Fed rate cut in September. As bond yields approach the high point in mid - March this year, the allocation value has significantly increased, and allocation demand is expected to effectively support the market. The bond market's sensitivity to external factors such as the rise of the stock market may weaken marginally. - If the fluctuations in the capital and fundamental aspects are limited, the subsequent strengthening of the equity market is expected to have a limited impact on the bond market. The bond market pricing is expected to gradually return to the rational range dominated by fundamentals. However, in the context of the monetary policy focusing on structural tools, the interest rate center lacks the impetus to decline further. Strategically, it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities brought by the phased repair of treasury bond futures. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of the T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 0.08%, 0.07%, 0.02%, and 0.24% respectively. The trading volumes of the T and TL main contracts increased by 3956 and 22208 respectively, while the trading volumes of the TF and TS main contracts decreased by 8338 and 5141 respectively. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T12 - TL12, TF2512 - 2509, TS12 - T12, TS12 - TF12 decreased, while the spreads of T2512 - 2509 and TF12 - T12 increased. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of the T, TF, and TS main contracts increased by 1656, 1959, and 612 respectively, while the position of the TL main contract decreased by 1148. The net short positions of the T, TF, and TL decreased by 764, 63, and 2459 respectively, while the net short position of the TS increased by 221. [2] 3.2 CTD Bonds - The net prices of most CTD bonds increased, such as 220019.IB, 220017.IB, 230006.IB, etc., while the net price of 220022.IB decreased. [2] 3.3 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.25bp, 0.50bp, 1.00bp, 0.25bp, and 0.25bp respectively. [2] 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 14.05bp, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.20bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate decreased by 4.28bp, the Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 2.40bp, the silver - pledged 14 - day rate increased by 1.00bp, and the Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 1.10bp. The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.5 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open market operations was 3799 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 6160 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net withdrawal of 2361 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 40203.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profit decreased by 1.5% year - on - year. At the end of July, the total assets of industrial enterprises above the designated size were 183.67 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the total liabilities were 106.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.1%; the owner's equity was 77.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.6%; the asset - liability ratio was 57.9%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 percentage points. - Six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies, including unlimited housing purchases outside the outer ring for eligible families, adjusting housing purchase restrictions for single adults, increasing the provident fund loan limit for green buildings by 15%, implementing the "withdrawal and loan" policy for provident funds, unifying mortgage rates for first and second - home purchases, and fine - tuning property tax collection policies. - The Deputy Minister of Commerce stated that the consumption pattern in China has shifted to a stage where commodity consumption and service consumption are equally important. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On August 28 at 17:00, the Eurozone's industrial sentiment index for August will be released. - On August 29 at 20:30, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for July will be released. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides investment analysis and strategies for various financial and commodity futures and options, including intraday and mid - term views, reference strategies, and core logics for each product [1][2][5]. - For financial futures, the stock index futures are expected to have high - level sideways consolidation and index differentiation in the short - term, with a wide - range shock in the medium - term. The treasury bond futures are expected to continue to rebound with long - term bonds being strong in the short - term and remain strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - For commodity futures, different sectors such as metals, black and building materials, livestock and soft commodities, and energy and chemicals have different trends and influencing factors. For example, copper in the metal sector is affected by factors like Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, supply and demand, and inventory [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: High - level sideways consolidation, index differentiation [1] - **Mid - term View**: Wide - range shock - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2509 cautiously and hold IO - 4300 - P put options for protection - **Core Logic**: Market trading volume has decreased but remains at a high level. Margin trading balance is stable and approaching 2.2 trillion yuan. Leverage funds continue to enter the market, and the trading sentiment of margin trading funds is heating up. The policy side forms multiple positive overlays, providing good support for the market [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Rebound continues, long - term bonds are strong - **Mid - term View**: Strong - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in TL2512 - **Core Logic**: The central bank's open - market operations turn to net withdrawal, but the previous monthly MLF renewal achieved a large - scale net injection. The inter - bank market liquidity remains abundant. The stock - bond seesaw effect may be further desensitized, and the economic recovery is slow, indicating that the bond market is difficult to switch from bull to bear [2][3]. Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - **Copper** - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate within the range of 79290 - 80100 (also 78500 - 80000 in another part) [5][51] - **Mid - term View**: Fluctuate within the range of 60000 - 90000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating operation idea - **Core Logic**: The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is high. Supply shows a tightening trend in some aspects, and demand is positive in some areas like China's power grid investment and global energy - storage battery shipments. However, the slowdown in US import demand may weaken the support for copper prices [6][7][51]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Intraday View**: Run strongly, within the range of 8600 - 8900 (also 8500 - 8800 in another part) [8][54] - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 8500 - 9500 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: Supply decreased year - on - year in July. Demand also decreased year - on - year in June. The inventory is at a high level in the past 7 years, but the "Industrial Silicon Industry Kunming Initiative" is expected to boost the price [8][9][54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Intraday View**: Run strongly, within the range of 50,000 - 53,000 - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 45,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: Supply decreased year - on - year in June. Demand decreased year - on - year in July. The inventory shows obvious oversupply, but the "anti - involution" expectation boosts the price [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum** - **Intraday View**: Run at a high level, within the range of 20600 - 20900 - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 19500 - 21000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2510 - P - 19300 - **Core Logic**: The supply - side reform in 2017 set a cap on China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the current production capacity increase space is limited. The social inventory is at the second - lowest level in the past 5 years, and the automobile market is performing well, which is beneficial to the aluminum price [13][14][59]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Intraday View**: Wide - range fluctuation, within the range of 75,000 - 85,000 - **Mid - term View**: Oscillate strongly, within the range of 70,000 - 100,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: The spot price has declined recently. Supply increased year - on - year in July, and the total inventory is at a high level within the year [15]. Black and Building Materials Sector - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Intraday View**: Short - term decline but limited downside space - **Mid - term View**: Lack of upward driving force - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold sold out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 - **Core Logic**: The inflection point of raw material supply and demand has appeared, and the policy - based production restriction is less than expected. However, the explicit inventory of steel products is at the lowest level in the past 5 years, so the downside space in the next 1 - 2 weeks is expected to be limited [17][18][61]. Livestock, Animal Husbandry, and Soft Commodities Sector - **Sugar** - **Intraday View**: Run weakly - **Mid - term View**: Strong bottom support (also oscillate weakly in another part) [20][21][63] - **Reference Strategy**: Exit long positions and wait and see - **Core Logic**: Production and exports in Brazil decreased in July. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to continue to increase production. In China, the domestic refined sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply is expected to be marginally looser [23][63]. - **Protein Meal** - **Intraday View**: Rapeseed meal 2601 is weaker than soybean meal 2601 - **Mid - term View**: Soybean meal 2601 will fluctuate sharply in August and September - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of shorting soybean oil 2601 and going long on palm oil 2601 - **Core Logic**: The average yields of US corn and soybeans are expected to reach record highs. The situation of US soybean exports to China, the harvest progress of Canadian rapeseed, and relevant policies all affect the market [33][34][64]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **Crude Oil** - **Intraday View**: There is upward space - **Mid - term View**: Under pressure - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil - **Core Logic**: OPEC + maintains the production - increase strategy in September. The supply of heavy - oil is still tight due to sanctions, but the supply from Venezuela may increase. The demand shows different trends in different regions and products, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the third - quarter end [40][41][67]. - **PVC** - **Intraday View**: Stabilize and rebound (also run weakly in another part) [42][70] - **Mid - term View**: Support at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on PVC - **Core Logic**: The cost of calcium carbide increases, the supply decreases due to equipment maintenance but may increase in the future. The demand is weak, and the inventory is currently accumulating but may decrease later [43][44][70].

Group 1: Metals and Minerals - The price of silicon iron (SF509) is 5828, down 2 or -0.03% from the previous value, with a historical quantile of 59.10% [1] - The price of silicon manganese (SM509) is 6070, and the reference price for the 6517 variety in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipts is provided [1] - The price of rebar (RB2510) is 3250, and the price of hot - rolled coil (HC2510) is 3480, up 15 or 0.43% [1] - The price of iron ore (12601) is 797, up 38 or 4.72%, with a historical quantile of 33.20% [1] - The price of coke (J2601) is 1613, down 68 or -4.02%, and the reference price for quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1681 [1] - The price of coking coal (JM2601) is 1145, down 111 or -8.84%, and the reference price for S1.3 G75 main coking coal in Shaheyi is 1256 [1] - The price of copper (CU2509) is 79020, with a basis of 130 and a historical quantile of 58.33% [1] - The price of aluminum (AL2509) is 20700, with a basis of - 50 and a historical quantile of 29.58% [1] - The price of zinc (ZN2509) is 22590, with a basis of - 42 and a historical quantile of 21.04% [1] - The price of tin (SN2509) is 268380, with a basis of - 380 and a historical quantile of 34.58% [1] - The price of nickel (NISE09) is 122130, with a basis of - 30 and a historical quantile of 54.58% [1] - The price of stainless steel (SS2510) is 13225, with a basis of 145 and a historical quantile of 31.75% [1] - The price of alumina (AO2509) is 3249, with a historical quantile of 50.00% [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - The price of soybean meal (M2601) is 2930, with a basis of - 142 and a historical quantile of 14.10% [1] - The price of soybean oil (V2601) is 8440, with a historical quantile of 11.50% [1] - The price of palm oil (P2509) is 9218, with a basis of - 18 and a historical quantile of 13.10% [1] - The price of rapeseed meal (RM509) is 2724, with a basis of - 134 and a historical quantile of 11.60% [1] - The price of rapeseed oil (O1509) is 9588, with a basis of 72 and a historical quantile of 32.90% [1] - The price of corn (C2509) is 2262, with a historical quantile of 64.90% [1] - The price of corn starch (CS2509) is 2642, with a basis of 108 and a historical quantile of 52.30% [1] - The price of live pigs (LH2511) is 14140, with a basis of - 290 and a historical quantile of 35.80% [1] - The price of eggs (JD2509) is 3271, with a basis of - 181 and a historical quantile of 18.90% [1] - The price of cotton (CF509) is 13680, with a basis of 1367 and a historical quantile of 89.90% [1] - The price of sugar (SR601) is 5573, with a basis of 437 and a historical quantile of 79.10% [1] - The price of apples (AP510) is 8127, with a basis of 153 and a historical quantile of 31.50% [1] - The price of red dates (CJ601) is 11685, with a basis of - 2185 and a historical quantile of 8.20% [1] Group 3: Energy and Chemicals - The price of p - xylene (PX509) is 6778, with a basis of 56.40% and a historical quantile of 1.58% [1] - The price of PTA (TA509) is 4700, with a basis of - 6 and a historical quantile of 49.50% [1] - The price of ethylene glycol (EG2509) is 4490, with a basis of 76 and a historical quantile of 86.30% [1] - The price of polyester staple fiber (PF510) is 6408, with a basis of 82 and a historical quantile of 65.50% [1] - The price of styrene (EB2509) is 7250, with a basis of 55 and a historical quantile of 38.40% [1] - The price of methanol (MA509) is 2382, with a basis of - 7 and a historical quantile of 30.20% [1] - The price of urea (UR509) is 1722, with a basis of 8 and a historical quantile of 13.50% [1] - The price of LLDPE (L2509) is 7285, with a basis of - 29 and a historical quantile of 13.30% [1] - The price of PP (PP2509) is 7095, with a basis of 25 and a historical quantile of 29.20% [1] - The price of PVC (V2509) is 4890, with a basis of - 120 and a historical quantile of 45.90% [1] - The price of caustic soda (SH209) is 2492, with a historical quantile of 48.60% [1] - The price of LPG (PG2509) is 4298, with a basis of 499 and a historical quantile of 67.00% [1] - The price of asphalt (BU2510) is 3481, with a basis of 199 and a historical quantile of 81.90% [1] - The price of butadiene rubber (BR2509) is 11500, with a basis of - 285 and a historical quantile of 7.70% [1] - The price of glass (FG509) is 1088, with a basis of 20 and a historical quantile of 69.74% [1] - The price of soda ash (SA601) is 1241, with a basis of - 104 and a historical quantile of 4.41% [1] - The price of natural rubber (RU2601) is 15755, with a basis of - 1055 and a historical quantile of 25.62% [1] Group 4: Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - The price of IF2509 is 4104.8, with a basis of - 17.7 and a historical quantile of 25.00% [1] - The price of IH2509 is 2789.4, with a basis of - 0.5 and a historical quantile of 55.20% [1] - The price of IC2509 is 6391.8, with a basis of - 93 and a historical quantile of 3.80% [1] - The price of IM2509 is 6943.9, with a basis of - 92.7 and a historical quantile of 15.60% [1] - The price of 2 - year bond futures (TS2509) is 100.29, with a basis of 0.03 and a historical quantile of 35.60% [1] - The price of 5 - year bond futures (TF2509) is 100.70, with a basis of 0.03 and a historical quantile of 31.80% [1] - The price of 10 - year bond futures (T2509) is 100.84, with a basis of 0.03 and a historical quantile of 18.90% [1] - The price of 30 - year bond futures (TL2509) is 118.51, with a basis of 0.25 and a historical quantile of 33.60% [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/7/29 [1] - Data Source: Third - party - Researcher: Liao Hongbin - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - On Tuesday, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, and Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.56%. Domestically, the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed in June, but weak PPI remained a drag. Industrial growth rose slightly, fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable. Socially - financed growth exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Overseas, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded unexpectedly, the labor market was stable, and global trade tensions eased. Affected by policy themes, risk appetite increased, and the bond market was under pressure. If relevant policies are further introduced, the bond market may continue to face pressure in the short - term, and interest - rate bonds may be adjusted. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short - term and allocate after stabilization [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Disk - **Closing Prices**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.25%, 0.17%, 0.06%, and 0.78% respectively [2] - **Trading Volumes**: T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 94 and 5157 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1398 and 677 respectively [2] 2. Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 spreads decreased by 0.09, 0.02, and 0.01 respectively; T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 spreads increased by 0.64, 0.09, 0.21, and 0.12 respectively [2] 3. Futures Positions - **Main Contract Positions**: T and TS main contract positions decreased by 625 and 2929 respectively, while TF main contract positions decreased by 32, and TL main contract positions increased by 488 [2] - **Top 20 Long and Short Positions**: T top 20 long positions decreased by 379, and short positions increased by 1659; TF top 20 long positions increased by 1156, and short positions increased by 309; TS top 20 long positions increased by 149, and short positions decreased by 2562; TL top 20 long and short positions increased by 3633 and 3786 respectively [2] 4. CTD (Cheapest to Deliver) - The net prices of various CTD bonds, such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc., all decreased [2] 5. Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of active Treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.75bp, 2.05bp, 2.50bp, 2.25bp, and 1.75bp respectively [2] 6. Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, Shibor overnight, and 7 - day interest rates all decreased [2] 7. Industry News - The national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was announced on July 28. From January 1, 2025, a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year will be provided for children under 3 years old [2] - In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries represented by the equipment industry grew rapidly. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year, and the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% year - on - year [2] 8. Key Data to Focus On - July 29, 22:00, US July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - July 30, 20:15, US July ADP Employment (in ten thousand people) [3]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios on July 22, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the F futures - spot spread is - 20.81, down 4.06 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 30.70% and an all - time percentile of 21.70% [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Such as the F inter - delivery spread, where the season - month minus the current - month is - 41.00, down 32.20, with a 1 - year percentile of 20.00% and an all - time percentile of 26.40% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: For instance, the IC/IF ratio is 1.4898, up 0.0051, with a 1 - year percentile of 62.20% and an all - time percentile of 60.20% [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report provides data on IRR, basis, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures on July 22, 2025, including their changes and historical percentiles [2]. Summary by Category - **IRR**: The 15 - year IRR is 1.6099, down 0.0053 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 24.90% [2]. - **Basis**: For example, the T basis is 1.5727, down 0.0409, with a historical percentile of 53.80% [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Like the TS inter - delivery spread, the current - season minus the alternate - season is - 0.0080, with a historical percentile of 11.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Such as the TS - TF spread, which is - 3.5350 on July 22, 2025, up 0.0210, with a historical percentile of 8.10% [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report shows the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and holdings of precious metals on July 22, 2025, along with their changes [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2510 contract closed at 781.70 yuan/gram on July 21, up 4.68 (0.60%) from July 18 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The London gold price was 3396.67 dollars/ounce on July 21, up 47.01 (1.40%) from July 18 [4]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis is - 4.70, down 1.05, with a 1 - year percentile of 5.60% [4]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 86.91, down 0.42 (- 0.48%) [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.38%, down 0.06 (- 1.4%) [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The SPRD gold ETF holding is 947 tons, up 3.44 (0.36%) [4]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report offers information on Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data on July 22, 2025 [7]. Summary by Category - **Freight Rates**: The CMA CGM's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate is 4226 dollars/FEU on July 21, up 124 (3.78%) from July 20 [7]. - **Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 2400.50 points on July 21, down 21.4 (- 0.89%) from July 14 [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1486.4 on July 21, down 8.7 (- 0.58%) from July 18, and the basis of the main contract is 956.5, down 22.1 (- 2.26%) [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply is 3271.67 on July 22, unchanged from July 21 [7]. Group 5: Trading Calendar Core Viewpoints - The report lists overseas and domestic data and information release schedules on July 22, 2025, including various economic indicators and events [9]. Summary by Category - **Overseas Data**: Such as New Zealand's log exports [9]. - **Domestic Data**: For example, the inventory of manganese ore by variety and the throughput of manganese ore in Qinzhou Port for manganese - silicon [9].