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瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250827
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 09:29
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.020 | 0.08% T主力成交量 | 99199 | 3956↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.590 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | 62229 | -8338↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.406 | 0.02% TS主力成交量 | 27789 | -5141↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 117.400 | 0.24% TL主力成交量 | 163183 | 22208↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2509价差 | -0.42 | -0.01↓ T12-TL12价差 | -9.38 | -0.11↓ | | | T2512-2509价差 | -0.18 | +0.01↑ TF12-T12价差 | -2.43 | 0.01↑ | | | TF2512-2509价差 | -0.07 | -0.01↓ TS12-T12价差 | -5.61 | -0.02↓ | | | TS ...
主要品种策略早餐-20250827
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 03:18
策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 (2025.08.27) 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种:IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点:高位横盘整理,指数分化 中期观点:宽幅震荡 参考策略:IF2509 多单谨慎持有,持有 IO-4300-P 看跌期权保护 核心逻辑: 1.资金情绪方面,市场量能虽有缩减,但仍处于高位水平,融资余额 稳定进一步逼近 2.2 万亿水平,杠杆资金持续进场,杠杆资金交投情绪继 续升温,融资资金交易额占比快速上升至 11.80%,同时全市场换手率亦 同步提升,关注短期调整风险。 2.政策端,国务院会议明确要巩固经济回升向好势头,政策面形成多 重利好叠加,为市场提供良好支撑。国常会听取实施大规模设备更新和消 费品以旧换新政策情况汇报,综合施策释放内需潜力。 国债期货 品种:TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点:反弹延续,长债偏强 中期观点:偏强 参考策略:TL2512 多单持有 核心逻辑: 1.资金方面,央行公开市场转为净回笼,不过此前月度 MLF 续作实现 大额净投放,银行间市场资金面维持充沛,存款类机构隔夜利率进一步下 行 3BP 至 1.31%附近。中长期资金方面,国股行 1 年期同业存单收益率略 有上 ...
全品种价差日报-20250812
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:33
Group 1: Metals and Minerals - The price of silicon iron (SF509) is 5828, down 2 or -0.03% from the previous value, with a historical quantile of 59.10% [1] - The price of silicon manganese (SM509) is 6070, and the reference price for the 6517 variety in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipts is provided [1] - The price of rebar (RB2510) is 3250, and the price of hot - rolled coil (HC2510) is 3480, up 15 or 0.43% [1] - The price of iron ore (12601) is 797, up 38 or 4.72%, with a historical quantile of 33.20% [1] - The price of coke (J2601) is 1613, down 68 or -4.02%, and the reference price for quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1681 [1] - The price of coking coal (JM2601) is 1145, down 111 or -8.84%, and the reference price for S1.3 G75 main coking coal in Shaheyi is 1256 [1] - The price of copper (CU2509) is 79020, with a basis of 130 and a historical quantile of 58.33% [1] - The price of aluminum (AL2509) is 20700, with a basis of - 50 and a historical quantile of 29.58% [1] - The price of zinc (ZN2509) is 22590, with a basis of - 42 and a historical quantile of 21.04% [1] - The price of tin (SN2509) is 268380, with a basis of - 380 and a historical quantile of 34.58% [1] - The price of nickel (NISE09) is 122130, with a basis of - 30 and a historical quantile of 54.58% [1] - The price of stainless steel (SS2510) is 13225, with a basis of 145 and a historical quantile of 31.75% [1] - The price of alumina (AO2509) is 3249, with a historical quantile of 50.00% [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - The price of soybean meal (M2601) is 2930, with a basis of - 142 and a historical quantile of 14.10% [1] - The price of soybean oil (V2601) is 8440, with a historical quantile of 11.50% [1] - The price of palm oil (P2509) is 9218, with a basis of - 18 and a historical quantile of 13.10% [1] - The price of rapeseed meal (RM509) is 2724, with a basis of - 134 and a historical quantile of 11.60% [1] - The price of rapeseed oil (O1509) is 9588, with a basis of 72 and a historical quantile of 32.90% [1] - The price of corn (C2509) is 2262, with a historical quantile of 64.90% [1] - The price of corn starch (CS2509) is 2642, with a basis of 108 and a historical quantile of 52.30% [1] - The price of live pigs (LH2511) is 14140, with a basis of - 290 and a historical quantile of 35.80% [1] - The price of eggs (JD2509) is 3271, with a basis of - 181 and a historical quantile of 18.90% [1] - The price of cotton (CF509) is 13680, with a basis of 1367 and a historical quantile of 89.90% [1] - The price of sugar (SR601) is 5573, with a basis of 437 and a historical quantile of 79.10% [1] - The price of apples (AP510) is 8127, with a basis of 153 and a historical quantile of 31.50% [1] - The price of red dates (CJ601) is 11685, with a basis of - 2185 and a historical quantile of 8.20% [1] Group 3: Energy and Chemicals - The price of p - xylene (PX509) is 6778, with a basis of 56.40% and a historical quantile of 1.58% [1] - The price of PTA (TA509) is 4700, with a basis of - 6 and a historical quantile of 49.50% [1] - The price of ethylene glycol (EG2509) is 4490, with a basis of 76 and a historical quantile of 86.30% [1] - The price of polyester staple fiber (PF510) is 6408, with a basis of 82 and a historical quantile of 65.50% [1] - The price of styrene (EB2509) is 7250, with a basis of 55 and a historical quantile of 38.40% [1] - The price of methanol (MA509) is 2382, with a basis of - 7 and a historical quantile of 30.20% [1] - The price of urea (UR509) is 1722, with a basis of 8 and a historical quantile of 13.50% [1] - The price of LLDPE (L2509) is 7285, with a basis of - 29 and a historical quantile of 13.30% [1] - The price of PP (PP2509) is 7095, with a basis of 25 and a historical quantile of 29.20% [1] - The price of PVC (V2509) is 4890, with a basis of - 120 and a historical quantile of 45.90% [1] - The price of caustic soda (SH209) is 2492, with a historical quantile of 48.60% [1] - The price of LPG (PG2509) is 4298, with a basis of 499 and a historical quantile of 67.00% [1] - The price of asphalt (BU2510) is 3481, with a basis of 199 and a historical quantile of 81.90% [1] - The price of butadiene rubber (BR2509) is 11500, with a basis of - 285 and a historical quantile of 7.70% [1] - The price of glass (FG509) is 1088, with a basis of 20 and a historical quantile of 69.74% [1] - The price of soda ash (SA601) is 1241, with a basis of - 104 and a historical quantile of 4.41% [1] - The price of natural rubber (RU2601) is 15755, with a basis of - 1055 and a historical quantile of 25.62% [1] Group 4: Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - The price of IF2509 is 4104.8, with a basis of - 17.7 and a historical quantile of 25.00% [1] - The price of IH2509 is 2789.4, with a basis of - 0.5 and a historical quantile of 55.20% [1] - The price of IC2509 is 6391.8, with a basis of - 93 and a historical quantile of 3.80% [1] - The price of IM2509 is 6943.9, with a basis of - 92.7 and a historical quantile of 15.60% [1] - The price of 2 - year bond futures (TS2509) is 100.29, with a basis of 0.03 and a historical quantile of 35.60% [1] - The price of 5 - year bond futures (TF2509) is 100.70, with a basis of 0.03 and a historical quantile of 31.80% [1] - The price of 10 - year bond futures (T2509) is 100.84, with a basis of 0.03 and a historical quantile of 18.90% [1] - The price of 30 - year bond futures (TL2509) is 118.51, with a basis of 0.25 and a historical quantile of 33.60% [1]
国债期货日报-20250729
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 11:35
Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/7/29 [1] - Data Source: Third - party - Researcher: Liao Hongbin - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - On Tuesday, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, and Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.56%. Domestically, the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed in June, but weak PPI remained a drag. Industrial growth rose slightly, fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable. Socially - financed growth exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Overseas, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded unexpectedly, the labor market was stable, and global trade tensions eased. Affected by policy themes, risk appetite increased, and the bond market was under pressure. If relevant policies are further introduced, the bond market may continue to face pressure in the short - term, and interest - rate bonds may be adjusted. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short - term and allocate after stabilization [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Disk - **Closing Prices**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.25%, 0.17%, 0.06%, and 0.78% respectively [2] - **Trading Volumes**: T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 94 and 5157 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1398 and 677 respectively [2] 2. Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 spreads decreased by 0.09, 0.02, and 0.01 respectively; T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 spreads increased by 0.64, 0.09, 0.21, and 0.12 respectively [2] 3. Futures Positions - **Main Contract Positions**: T and TS main contract positions decreased by 625 and 2929 respectively, while TF main contract positions decreased by 32, and TL main contract positions increased by 488 [2] - **Top 20 Long and Short Positions**: T top 20 long positions decreased by 379, and short positions increased by 1659; TF top 20 long positions increased by 1156, and short positions increased by 309; TS top 20 long positions increased by 149, and short positions decreased by 2562; TL top 20 long and short positions increased by 3633 and 3786 respectively [2] 4. CTD (Cheapest to Deliver) - The net prices of various CTD bonds, such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc., all decreased [2] 5. Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of active Treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.75bp, 2.05bp, 2.50bp, 2.25bp, and 1.75bp respectively [2] 6. Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, Shibor overnight, and 7 - day interest rates all decreased [2] 7. Industry News - The national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was announced on July 28. From January 1, 2025, a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year will be provided for children under 3 years old [2] - In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries represented by the equipment industry grew rapidly. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year, and the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% year - on - year [2] 8. Key Data to Focus On - July 29, 22:00, US July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - July 30, 20:15, US July ADP Employment (in ten thousand people) [3]
金融日报-20250722
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 13:14
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios on July 22, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the F futures - spot spread is - 20.81, down 4.06 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 30.70% and an all - time percentile of 21.70% [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Such as the F inter - delivery spread, where the season - month minus the current - month is - 41.00, down 32.20, with a 1 - year percentile of 20.00% and an all - time percentile of 26.40% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: For instance, the IC/IF ratio is 1.4898, up 0.0051, with a 1 - year percentile of 62.20% and an all - time percentile of 60.20% [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report provides data on IRR, basis, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures on July 22, 2025, including their changes and historical percentiles [2]. Summary by Category - **IRR**: The 15 - year IRR is 1.6099, down 0.0053 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 24.90% [2]. - **Basis**: For example, the T basis is 1.5727, down 0.0409, with a historical percentile of 53.80% [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Like the TS inter - delivery spread, the current - season minus the alternate - season is - 0.0080, with a historical percentile of 11.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Such as the TS - TF spread, which is - 3.5350 on July 22, 2025, up 0.0210, with a historical percentile of 8.10% [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report shows the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and holdings of precious metals on July 22, 2025, along with their changes [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2510 contract closed at 781.70 yuan/gram on July 21, up 4.68 (0.60%) from July 18 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The London gold price was 3396.67 dollars/ounce on July 21, up 47.01 (1.40%) from July 18 [4]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis is - 4.70, down 1.05, with a 1 - year percentile of 5.60% [4]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 86.91, down 0.42 (- 0.48%) [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.38%, down 0.06 (- 1.4%) [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The SPRD gold ETF holding is 947 tons, up 3.44 (0.36%) [4]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report offers information on Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data on July 22, 2025 [7]. Summary by Category - **Freight Rates**: The CMA CGM's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate is 4226 dollars/FEU on July 21, up 124 (3.78%) from July 20 [7]. - **Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 2400.50 points on July 21, down 21.4 (- 0.89%) from July 14 [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1486.4 on July 21, down 8.7 (- 0.58%) from July 18, and the basis of the main contract is 956.5, down 22.1 (- 2.26%) [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply is 3271.67 on July 22, unchanged from July 21 [7]. Group 5: Trading Calendar Core Viewpoints - The report lists overseas and domestic data and information release schedules on July 22, 2025, including various economic indicators and events [9]. Summary by Category - **Overseas Data**: Such as New Zealand's log exports [9]. - **Domestic Data**: For example, the inventory of manganese ore by variety and the throughput of manganese ore in Qinzhou Port for manganese - silicon [9].
股指期货策略早餐-20250716
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 08:48
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: The intraday view of stock index futures is a volatile rebound, and the medium - term view is bullish. For treasury bond futures, both the intraday and medium - term views are bullish [1][2]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: For aluminum, it is expected to trade at a high level both intraday and in the medium - term. For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil, the intraday price is expected to be volatile and strong, and the price is expected to be strong from July to August [4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IM2509 [1]. - **Core Logic**: The marginal slowdown of fundamental repair strengthens policy expectations. The government's strengthened long - cycle assessment of insurance funds is beneficial for the entry of incremental funds. Overseas, the phased settlement of tariff uncertainties has a limited impact on the equity market [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [3]. - **Core Logic**: During the tax period, the central bank's injection of medium - term liquidity supports the long - end bond market. The weak domestic fundamentals and low inflation strengthen the expectation of monetary easing. After the release of multiple negative news, the bond market maintains a rebound momentum [3]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials (Aluminum)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [4]. - **Core Logic**: Due to supply - side reforms, the increase in aluminum production capacity is limited. The current social inventory is at a five - year low, and the good performance of the automotive market is beneficial for aluminum prices [4]. - **Black and Building Materials (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold long positions in in - the - money call options RB2510 - C - 3000, short positions in out - of - the - money put options RB2510 - P - 2900, and short - term short positions in out - of - the - money call options RB2510 - C - 3300 [5]. - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of steel raw materials is expected to ease, which may support the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs. The low inventory of finished steel products and the emergence of multiple positive factors are expected to boost speculative demand [5].
股指期货策略早餐-20250702
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 05:27
策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 (2025.07.02) 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种:IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:偏强 参考策略:持有卖出MO2507-P-5800虚值看跌期权、IM2507多单 核心逻辑: 1 .海外风险边际下行,中美磋商向积极方向推进,双方进一步确认了框架细 节,取消了部分限制,持续利多权益市场情绪。 2.国内方面,基本面回归偏弱现实,政策提振内需预期逐步兑现。央行等六部 门联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》,支持政策提前落地。随 后,国家发展改革委表示将于今年7月份下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金。进一步 提振权益市场。 3.国常会定调,进一步强化企业科技创新主体地位,强调以"十年磨一剑"的坚 定决心,加快推进高水平科技自立自强,叠加科技板块中报业绩预期向好,科创板块 有望延续涨势,IC或IM继续占优。 国债期货 品种:TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点:震荡反弹 2 .资金方面,跨月后银行间市场主要回购利率明显回落,隔夜跌近 1 5 B P向 1.35%靠拢,不过非银与存款类机构分化未退,关注央行流动性投放力度。中长期资 金继续小幅向宽,国股行1年期 ...
光大期货金融期货日报-20250701
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 03:51
光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报(2025 年 07 月 01 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日,A 股市场继续冲高,Wind 全 A 上涨 0.89%,成交额 1.22 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数上涨 1.26%,中证 500 指数上涨 0.88%,沪深 300 指数上涨 0.37%, | | | | 上证 50 指数上涨 0.16%。国防军工板块领涨,TMT 板块走强。美联储主席 | | | | 近日接受国会质询,表示将依据 6 至 7 月数据决定降息路径,同时点阵图也 | | | | 显示美联储内部对于降息意见分歧加大,这都使得市场开始提前计价降息, | | | | 纳斯达克逼近历史高位。A 股同样受到提振,连续两日上涨,但 A 股估值目 | | | | 前处于历史均值以上水平,很难连续大幅冲高。此外,稳定币概念近期火爆, | | | | 稳定币对于跨境交易结算具有较高的便利性,同时也可用作新型储备货币, | | | 股指 | 对于一个国家的金融市场高水平对外开放意义非凡。在 A 股市场缺乏热点 | ...
股指期货策略早餐-20250630
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 11:00
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the financial futures and options market, both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are expected to be strong in the short and medium - term. In the commodity futures and options market, different metals and energy materials, as well as agricultural products, have their own unique supply - demand and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [1] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] - **Core logic**: Positive sentiment in the equity market due to Sino - US communication and policy support, and the potential rise of the science and technology sector [1] Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [2] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [2] - **Reference strategy**: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [3] - **Core logic**: Weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy expectations, and the central bank's continued net investment affects the capital market [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials - **Copper** - **Day - to - day view**: Price range from 79,200 to 81,000 [4] - **Medium - term view**: Price range from 60,000 to 90,000 [4] - **Reference strategy**: Adopt an oscillating and slightly upward trading idea, buy call options [4] - **Core logic**: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US, supply shortages, and changes in international demand and inventory levels affect copper prices [4] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 8,000 to 8,100 [5] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure, price range from 7,000 to 9,000 [5] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short SI2508 - C - 9000 until expiration, short futures on rallies [5] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [5] - **Polysilicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 33,000 to 35,000 [7] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a low level, price range from 28,000 to 38,000 [7] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short PS2508 - C - 45000 until expiration [7] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [7] - **Aluminum** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 20,400 to 20,700 [9] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a high level, price range from 19,200 to 21,000 [9] - **Reference strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [9] - **Core logic**: Limited supply increase, low inventory, good performance in the automotive market, and the overall rise of non - ferrous metals [9] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 63,000 to 65,000 [11] - **Medium - term view**: Cost support weakens, prices decline steadily, price range from 56,000 to 68,000 [11] - **Reference strategy**: Short futures on rallies, sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core logic**: Low spot prices, large supply, and high inventory levels [11] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Day - to - day view**: Downward pressure weakens [14] - **Medium - term view**: Stop falling and stabilize [14] - **Reference strategy**: Exit the strategy of selling call options and buying put options on RB2510, sell out - of - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 [14] - **Core logic**: Potential relief of raw material inventory pressure and changes in supply and demand [14] Livestock, Poultry, and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias [17] - **Medium - term view**: Rebound temporarily and then maintain a weak trend [17] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [17] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply and demand, with supply remaining abundant and demand weak [17] - **Sugar** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate weakly [19] - **Medium - term view**: Rise first and then fall [19] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [19] - **Core logic**: Global supply surplus expectations and domestic supply - demand and import situations [19] - **Protein Meal** - **Day - to - day view**: Soybean meal 2509 oscillates in the range of [2,900, 3,000] [22] - **Medium - term view**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2,900, 3,100] [22] - **Reference strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850 [22] - **Core logic**: Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean and Canadian rapeseed growing areas, and changes in international and domestic soybean and rapeseed markets [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate within a range [25] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure [25] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short out - of - the - money call options on PG2508 [25] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply, demand, and cost factors [25] - **PVC** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [28] - **Medium - term view**: Limited upside potential [28] - **Reference strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on PVC [28] - **Core logic**: Changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory levels [28]
光大期货金融期货日报-20250625
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market rose rapidly yesterday, with the Wind All A index up 1.56% and a trading volume of 1.45 trillion yuan. The conflict between Iran and Israel has limited direct impact on the A-share market. Given the current credit contraction and insufficient demand, the index is unlikely to break through the central level and rise significantly. However, with the improvement in corporate earnings in H1 2025 compared to 2024 and the support of allocation funds, the A-share index will not experience a sharp decline in the short term. It is expected that the index will mainly fluctuate in the future [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27%, the 10-year main contract down 0.11%, the 5-year main contract down 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02%. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2092 billion yuan. The bond market lacks the momentum to strengthen significantly and is likely to remain in a range-bound pattern [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a significant upward trend, with multiple sectors rising. The conflict between Iran and Israel had limited direct impact on the A-share market. The domestic economy faces challenges such as credit contraction and insufficient demand, but corporate earnings have improved, leading to an expected volatile trend for the index [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank's open market operations led to a slight tightening of the capital market. Given the economic resilience and the approaching half-year end, the bond market is likely to remain range-bound [1][2]. Price Changes in Futures Contracts - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 24, 2025, IH rose 1.10%, IF rose 1.45%, IC rose 1.79%, and IM rose 2.46% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.16%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.20%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.62%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.92% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.03%, TF fell 0.08%, T fell 0.12%, and TL fell 0.30% [3]. Market News - An event to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War will be held on September 3, including a military parade, and President Xi Jinping will deliver an important speech [4]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, providing a visual reference for the performance of stock index futures [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, helping to analyze the treasury bond futures market [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report shows the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and other currency pairs, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates, offering insights into the foreign exchange market [20][21][22].