证券研究报告 2025年主流车企城市NOA试驾报告 —11月深圳篇 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年12月17日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 2 ◼ 2025年是汽车智能化拐点之年，开启3年周期推动国内电动化渗透率实现50%-80%+的跃升，整 车格局迎来新的重塑阶段。头部智能驾驶主机厂/方案供应商已实现包括环岛、掉头等复杂场景的 城市NOA落地体验，并完善车位到车位、场景理解等高阶功能，加强Corner Case的处理能力， 提升乘客与安全员的驾驶体验。 （ ◼ 本报告进行了大样本集中路测以及小样本深度路测两种形式，从场景实现、接管频率、舒适性等 维度对问界、蓝山、小鹏、理想、腾势、小米、蔚来共7家智能驾驶主机厂/方案供应商的智驾体 验进行定性和定量的横截面评价。由于主观尺度、实际路况、安全员对智驾的信任度等因素的限 制，本报告不涉及具体车企/方案供应商的智能化能力排序（表格先后顺序不代表排序情况），也 不涉及具体车企/方案供应商的投资建议。 ◼ 本次深圳智能化对智驾的理解和复杂场景处理能力提出一定 ...

来源：环球网 【环球网科技报道 记者 心月】当中国智能驾驶产业告别"依赖进口"的初期阶段，向国产化、规模化时 代加速迈进时，一则来自乌镇的消息标注了行业新坐标：11月28日，福瑞泰克第500万件高阶智能驾驶 产品正式下线。这不是一组简单的量产数字——从2022年乌镇智能制造基地启动量产，到2023年突破百 万件大关，再到如今迈入"500万+"阵营，这家中国智能驾驶企业的成长速度，不仅改写了自主供应商的 量产纪录，更成为国产智驾解决方案打破国际Tier 1垄断、实现商业化落地的生动注脚。日前，福瑞泰 克董事长张林博士接受环球网记者的采访，从技术路线选择到量产能力构建，从国产替代布局到全球化 视野，深度解读这一里程碑背后的产业思考与企业战略。 技术破局：中算力平台撑起城市NOA普及 针对雨雪天气等恶劣环境的技术痛点，福瑞泰克采用了视觉与毫米波雷达的双重感知方案。"毫米波雷 达是全气候传感器，对昼夜、雨雪天候都有强性能保证，再加上海量量产数据的迭代，所有长尾场景都 能被覆盖。"张林补充道，这种技术组合既保证了安全性，也为智驾功能的普及奠定了基础。 量产密码：软硬一体+平台化思维提效增速 从百万件到五百万件，福瑞泰克 ...

Core Insights - The news highlights the operational halt of the autonomous driving company, Haomo Zhixing, effective November 24, with no clear explanation from the leadership, indicating severe internal issues and a lack of communication [1] - Haomo Zhixing's struggles have been attributed to both internal challenges and external pressures, particularly the rapid evolution of technology in the autonomous driving sector [3][5] - The company, which was once seen as a promising player in the industry, has faced significant setbacks, including high-profile executive departures and a failure to keep pace with technological advancements [7][10] Internal Challenges - Haomo Zhixing's technology foundation was based on outdated models, which became a liability as the industry shifted towards new paradigms driven by large models and data-centric approaches [5][8] - The company struggled to adapt to the new technological landscape, facing obstacles in data acquisition, computational power, talent retention, and organizational agility [5][8] - A significant portion of Haomo's orders came from its parent company, Great Wall Motors, and a reduction in these orders led to a critical loss of data necessary for algorithm development [7][10] External Pressures - The competitive landscape has evolved, with rivals like Momenta, Huawei, and Horizon Robotics establishing strong positions through early investments in data ecosystems and technological innovations [5][14] - Great Wall Motors has shifted its strategy, moving away from self-reliance in autonomous driving technology and opting to collaborate with established third-party suppliers [8][11] - The market is rapidly changing, with expectations that by the end of 2025, advanced driver-assistance systems will become standard in vehicles, putting pressure on companies like Haomo to adapt quickly or risk obsolescence [13][19] Industry Trends - The autonomous driving sector is consolidating around a few key players, referred to as "地大华魔" (Horizon, DJI, Huawei, and Momenta), who have demonstrated the ability to deliver scalable and effective solutions [14][19] - Traditional automakers are increasingly recognizing the limitations of in-house development and are turning to partnerships with specialized technology firms to remain competitive [19][20] - The urgency for automakers to establish reliable partnerships and integrate advanced technologies is underscored by the impending market shifts expected by 2026, where failure to adapt could lead to exclusion from the mainstream market [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden announcement of a company-wide holiday by Haomo Zhixing, a subsidiary of Great Wall Motors, indicates severe operational challenges, potentially leading to a complete shutdown or temporary suspension of operations [1][3][5]. Company Overview - Haomo Zhixing, established in 2019, was once valued at 7.8 billion yuan and recognized as a leading player in China's autonomous driving sector [5]. - The company has over 200 employees and was previously backed by significant investments from firms like Meituan and Hillhouse [5]. - The company has faced a series of executive departures, including its CEO and other key positions, which has contributed to its current instability [5]. Operational Challenges - The company has been unable to deliver on its promises regarding the City NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) feature, which has been repeatedly delayed since its initial announcement in 2022 [6]. - The reliance on Qualcomm's Snapdragon Ride platform has posed significant technical challenges, hindering timely product launches [6]. - Competitors like Huawei and Xiaopeng have successfully launched their own advanced driving systems, further intensifying market competition [6][12]. Market Position and Competition - Great Wall Motors has begun to shift resources towards external suppliers like Yuanrong Qixing, marginalizing Haomo Zhixing within its own ecosystem [7][12]. - The introduction of new models with advanced driving features from competitors has led to a significant increase in sales, highlighting Haomo Zhixing's declining market relevance [8][12]. - The global autonomous driving market is projected to reach 446.1 billion yuan by 2025, with China accounting for nearly half of this market [14]. Industry Trends - The autonomous driving industry is experiencing a significant divide, with major players like Huawei and Momenta dominating the market, while smaller companies struggle to survive [15][18]. - Recent events in the industry, such as the bankruptcy of other small players, underscore the intense pressure faced by companies like Haomo Zhixing [17][18].

Core Insights - The new BAIC Arcfox Alpha T5 aims to redefine the value benchmark for mid-size SUVs priced around 150,000 RMB, leveraging advanced driving assistance and range-extending technologies [1][3] Pricing and Market Position - The Alpha T5 is launched at a promotional price range of 109,800 to 154,800 RMB, offering both pure electric and range-extended versions across seven configurations [1] - The vehicle has already received over 10,000 pre-sale orders, indicating strong market interest [1] Technological Features - The Alpha T5 is the first SUV to offer city NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) at a price point below 150,000 RMB, featuring the Snapdragon 8775 integrated chip and BAIC's Yuanjing intelligent driving assistance system [3] - It incorporates a unique "inertial dual-eye stereo vision system" that mimics human vision, allowing for precise obstacle detection without relying on pre-existing databases [3] - The vehicle's high computing power of 144 Tops enables complex driving scenarios such as traffic jam assist and autonomous highway entry and exit [3] Performance and Efficiency - The range-extended version features a high-efficiency Atkinson cycle engine with a thermal efficiency of 43%, achieving 0-100 km/h acceleration in 6.5 seconds when fully charged and 6.8 seconds in a depleted state [3] - The WLTC fuel consumption in a depleted state is 5.18 L, with a comprehensive range of up to 1,215 km under CLTC conditions [3] - The pure electric version boasts a maximum range of 705 km and supports 800V high-voltage fast charging, allowing for a 30%-80% charge in just 8.9 minutes [3] Space and Comfort - The Alpha T5 features an extended length of 4,760 mm and a wheelbase of 2,845 mm, with a maximum trunk capacity of 1,546 L when the second-row seats are folded down, catering to family travel needs [5] - The vehicle is built with high manufacturing standards and a robust body structure, ensuring safety and quality while providing a cost-effective smart mobility option [5]

Core Insights - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for automotive intelligence, initiating a three-year cycle that will elevate domestic electrification penetration rates to 50%-80%+, leading to a restructuring of the automotive landscape [4][10] - Leading intelligent driving manufacturers have successfully implemented complex urban scenarios such as roundabouts and U-turns, enhancing high-level functionalities like parking and scene understanding, thereby improving the driving experience for passengers and safety personnel [4][10] Investment Highlights - A comprehensive evaluation of six intelligent driving manufacturers, including ZunJie, Xiaopeng, Zhiji, Ideal, Xiaomi, and NIO, was conducted through large sample concentrated road tests and small sample in-depth road tests, focusing on scene implementation, takeover frequency, and comfort [5][10] - The keyword for the Beijing intelligent driving assessment is "stronger gets stronger," with Huawei and Xiaopeng leading in overall takeover counts and performance across various scenarios, particularly excelling in challenging situations [5][10] - Compared to Q1, the gap in intelligent driving capabilities among manufacturers has been narrowing by Q3, with second-tier manufacturers improving their performance in complex urban scenarios and reducing takeover frequencies [6][10] Road Test Overview - The large sample concentrated road test involved a standardized route in Beijing, assessing various performance metrics such as overall evaluation, takeover counts, stability, and efficiency [41][40] - The small sample in-depth road tests were conducted under varying traffic conditions, focusing on specific scenarios like roundabouts and complex intersections to evaluate the vehicles' decision-making and interaction capabilities [61][72] Manufacturer Performance - ZunJie achieved the highest overall evaluation score with an average takeover count of 1.16, demonstrating strong performance in challenging scenarios [44] - Xiaopeng's XOS model exhibited the lowest average takeover count at 0.94, showcasing balanced performance across various scenarios [48] - Zhiji's IM AD 3.0 received a score of 3.55 with an average takeover count of 1.44, indicating good handling of complex situations [49] - Ideal's OTA 8.0 scored 3.20 with a lower average takeover count of 1.06, reflecting a conservative driving style [52] - Xiaomi's V1.9.7 had an average takeover count of 3.86, indicating variability in performance across different scenarios [55] - NIO's cedar model recorded an average takeover count of 4.14, effectively covering most urban intelligent driving scenarios [58]

Group 1: Industry Overview - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) industry has rapidly developed, becoming a core driving force in the global NEV market [1][2] - According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, NEV penetration is expected to exceed 20% by 2025 and 50% by 2035, with 2022 data showing a penetration rate of over 20%, achieving the 2025 target three years early [1][2] - The Chinese market has been the largest NEV market globally for several consecutive years, with a competitive advantage in the NEV supply chain [1][4] Group 2: Market Growth and Sales Data - In 2018, the wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles in China surpassed 1 million for the first time, with a year-on-year growth rate of 84% [2] - In 2021, NEV sales reached 3.31 million units, a year-on-year increase of 183% [2] - By 2024, NEV production and sales are projected to exceed 10 million units, with sales reaching 12.87 million units, a year-on-year growth of 35.5%, accounting for 70.5% of global NEV sales [2][4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The dominance of joint venture brands in the Chinese automotive market has been disrupted, with domestic brands like BYD capturing nearly 70% market share [2][3] - The competition in the NEV market has intensified, with a shift towards intelligent driving features becoming a major selling point for many manufacturers [6][7] - The market is undergoing a structural adjustment, with economic NEVs becoming mainstream and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) experiencing rapid growth [6][7] Group 4: International Expansion and Future Projections - China has become the world's largest automobile exporter, with NEV exports reaching 1.06 million units in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 75.2% [4] - It is projected that NEV sales will exceed 15 million units this year, with a shift in market share towards PHEVs and a gradual recovery of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) post-2030 [4][5] - The 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be a critical phase for reshaping the market structure, with industry concentration increasing and key technological breakthroughs anticipated [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of automotive intelligence as a revolutionary shift in transportation, highlighting the transition to L3 automation and the emergence of Robotaxi services as key drivers for automakers to enhance sales and revenue through software monetization [3][9]. Group 1: Automotive Intelligence Overview - Automotive intelligence represents a significant transformation in the industry, characterized by three main phases: L3 automation aiding vehicle sales, L4 Robotaxi services enabling software revenue, and the global rise of domestic brands [3][9]. - The year 2025 is projected to be a pivotal point for automotive intelligence, with urban NOA (L3 automation) becoming a top consideration for consumers when purchasing vehicles. The penetration rate of L3 automation is expected to rise from 10% in 2025 to over 80% by 2027 [3][9]. - The automotive intelligence landscape is described as a competitive elimination process, categorizing companies into three types: B-end Robotaxi operators, C-end personalized brands, and high-end vehicle manufacturers. Component suppliers are divided into modular and single-category suppliers [3][9]. Group 2: August Intelligence Summary - The focus in August was on the iteration of next-generation driving architectures, with notable advancements such as the launch of the Li Auto VLA architecture and the introduction of the new XPeng P7 featuring advanced self-driving capabilities [4][10]. - The penetration rate of urban NOA reached 23.2% in July, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points. XPeng's smart driving penetration exceeded 70%, while Li Auto's overall urban NOA penetration was 59.4%, showing a slight decline of 2.2 percentage points [4][10]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations for 2025 - The article maintains a positive outlook on smart vehicles, emphasizing that intelligence is the core, with new vehicle cycles and monthly sales being critical metrics. The focus is on Hong Kong-listed companies such as XPeng Motors, Li Auto, and Xiaomi, as well as A-share companies like BYD and SAIC [5][9]. - There is a strong interest in incremental components related to automotive intelligence, including AI chips, domain controllers, steer-by-wire systems, and automotive electronics, with specific companies highlighted for investment potential [5][9]. Group 4: Market Trends and Projections - The article outlines a forecast for the automotive intelligence market, indicating that by 2025-2027, the goal is to achieve a 50%-80% penetration rate for new energy vehicles, with a focus on hardware business models. The software monetization model is expected to face challenges in achieving substantial breakthroughs [19][20]. - The anticipated growth in Robotaxi services is expected to lead to significant commercialization and a qualitative leap in the automotive industry, marking the beginning of a new industrial trend [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and sales volume in its 2025 half-year report, with revenue reaching 24.25 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 174%, and sales volume of 222,000 vehicles, up 156% year-on-year [4][5]. - The introduction of the B series models is expected to drive further sales growth, with the B10 model contributing significantly to sales since its launch [7]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue and profit growth in the coming years, with revenue estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised upwards to 65.32 billion RMB, 133.26 billion RMB, and 178.08 billion RMB, respectively [5][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s financial projections show a recovery in net profit, with estimates of 691 million RMB for 2025, 5.47 billion RMB for 2026, and 8.3 billion RMB for 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to turn positive in 2025, with an estimate of 0.52 RMB per share, increasing to 6.21 RMB per share by 2027 [5][8]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve, with a gross margin of 14.1% reported for the first half of 2025, up 13 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Sales and Market Expansion - The company plans to expand both domestically and internationally, with new models and strategic partnerships expected to enhance sales and profitability [7]. - The B series models are anticipated to match the sales performance of the C series, contributing to the overall sales target of over one million vehicles in the next year [7]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its overseas market presence, with local production in Europe expected to begin next year, which will help mitigate tariffs and improve margins [7].

Core Viewpoint - Leapmotor achieved its first half-year net profit in 2025, raising its sales guidance for 2025 to 580,000-650,000 units, with a target of challenging 1 million units in 2026 [1][6][7]. Financial Performance - Leapmotor's revenue for the first half of 2025 was RMB 24.25 billion, a 174% increase from RMB 8.85 billion in the same period of 2024 [2][20]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 30 million for the first half of 2025, marking its first positive half-year net profit [3][24]. - The gross margin reached a record high of 14.1%, up from 1.1% in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 13 percentage point increase [3][22]. - Total vehicle deliveries in the first half of 2025 were 221,700 units, a 155.7% increase compared to 86,700 units in the same period of 2024 [3][24]. Sales and Production Guidance - The sales guidance for 2025 has been adjusted to 580,000-650,000 units, with expectations for significant growth in August and September [6][8]. - Leapmotor aims to challenge the target of 1 million units in annual sales by 2026 [7]. - The D-series models are set to debut in October 2025, with a launch planned for the first quarter of 2026 [10][11]. Research and Development - Leapmotor plans to achieve urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) by the end of 2025, aiming to be among the top tier in assisted driving technology [13]. - The company is expected to localize production in Europe, with the B-series models being the first to be produced there [15][18]. Market Expansion - Leapmotor has established over 600 sales and service points in approximately 30 international markets, with more than 550 in Europe [29]. - The company plans to establish a localized production base in Europe by the end of 2026 to enhance its global market presence [29]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of June 30, 2025, Leapmotor's cash reserves totaled RMB 29.58 billion, indicating strong financial health [26]. - The free cash flow for the first half of 2025 was RMB 860 million, a significant improvement from a negative RMB 480 million in the same period of 2024 [26].