回顾2025年消费领域，新茶饮无疑写下了浓厚的一笔。 这一年，蜜雪冰城、古茗、沪上阿姨、霸王茶姬先后成功上市，与之前登陆资本市场的奈雪、茶百道"胜利会师"。一时间，"新茶饮六小龙"之名不胫而 走，也造就了一段段财富传奇。 作为餐饮行业中成长最快的一个细分品类，中国新茶饮全国门店数量已经突破40万家。在资本追捧下，甚至出现1条商业街上10几家奶茶店的情况，很多 网友对此调侃"这几条街曾经渴过太多人"。 但与此同时，新茶饮行业的"优胜劣汰"进程加速推进。公开数据显示，过去一年里，有15.7万家奶茶店从市场消失，奶茶店们以惊人的速度刷新行业闭店 率榜首。 | 品牌总数 | 连锁化率 (? | | --- | --- | | 4,073个 | 50.54% | | 门店总数 | 每万人门店数 | | 410,245家 | 2.9家 | | 近一年新开店数 | 近一年净增长数 | | 101,504家 | -29,349家 | 在其背后，是新茶饮品类的"大洗牌"一直在发挥作用。 品类迭代 中国现制茶饮的发展史，堪称消费升级的一部教科书。 上世纪80年代，以快可立为代表的品牌将珍珠奶茶从台湾引入大陆，产品以茶粉、植脂末为 ...

来源：小食代 文：何丹琳 继去年在纳斯达克敲钟后，旗下拥有超7300家门店的霸王茶姬也许很快就要二次上市了。 彭博社今天报道称，据"知情人士"透露，中国茶饮连锁品牌霸王茶姬（Chagee Holdings Ltd.）正考虑在香港上市，加入近期纷纷涌向这一亚洲金融中心 发行股票的企业行列。 对此，霸王茶姬今天向小食代表示："暂无此计划。" 小食代介绍过，在近年已上市的中国现制茶饮连锁中，成立于2017年的霸王茶姬是"最年轻"的品牌，也属于两个上市速度最快的品牌之一：奈雪花了6 年，霸王茶姬则花了近8年。 在中国竞争激烈的连锁茶饮江湖中，霸王茶姬拥有独特的定位。根据招股书引述的艾瑞咨询数据，霸王茶姬是中国高端鲜制茶饮行业首个推出轻乳茶品类 的品牌，并以此确立了行业先锋地位。2024年，霸王茶姬在中国91%的GMV来自轻乳茶，其中约61%的GMV来自其最畅销的三款轻乳茶。 霸王茶姬此前已在美国上市，其2025年首次公开募股（IPO）使当时年仅30岁的创始人和首席执行官张俊杰一跃成为亿万富翁。目前，港股市场也已成为 茶饮公司"聚集地"，包括蜜雪冰城、古茗、奈雪、沪上阿姨等。 我们一起来关注下。 公司回应 根据彭博社报 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 酒店餐饮 2023 年现制饮品行业规模 5100+亿元，近几年持续保持双位数增速。细分赛道来 看，增速维度，现磨咖啡＞现制茶饮＞其他，2018-2023 年现磨咖啡/现制茶饮行 业增速约 36%/19%。规模维度，现制茶饮＞现磨咖啡＞其他，2023 年现制茶饮/ 现磨咖啡市场规模约 2500+/1700+亿元。横向比较，我国人均现制饮品年消费量 仍有 8 倍及以上空间。2023 年，我国人均现制饮品年消费量 22 杯，仍远低于 2023 年美国的 323 杯、欧盟及英国的 306 杯以及日本的 172 杯，因此对标发达市 场仍有 8 倍以上空间。中价带成为最具确定性的成长区间。高客单价承压、低价 带同质化严重，中价带凭借"高质价比+更包容的产品结构"成为占比最高的价 格带，预计 2028 年零售额占比为 48%。2024-2028 年，中价现制饮品 GMV 的 CAGR 预计可达 21%。 ❑ 300+新品、12+8+15 供应链体系与门店数高增速共塑确定性飞轮 首先，产品聚焦与稳定心智构筑品牌基本盘。早期"五谷奶茶"立"温热饱腹 健康"心智，2019 年后聚焦鲜果茶等四大线， ...

智通财经记者 | 李烨 智通财经编辑 | 牙韩翔 茶饮从未像今天这样拥挤。 在过去五年里，这个行业经历了一场罕见的加速。一二线城市的主干商圈占满招牌，下沉市场也在迅速 跑马圈地。各品牌从设计到供应链都彻底地连锁化，速度、规模成为关键词，也让加盟商都误以为，增 长会一直持续。但好景不长。 张丽霞是第一批体会到寒意的人。 霸王茶姬位于上海白玉兰广场一楼的门店 门店趋于饱和显露疲态的不仅仅是霸王茶姬。 消费行业数据追踪平台壹览商业发布的《2025现制茶饮行业研究报告》显示，2025年为止国内现制茶饮 相关企业累计总数已超110万家，截至9月，全国30个代表性现制茶饮品牌门店总量已突破13.1万家。 茶饮市场的供给平衡正在被打破，最为直接的表现是扩张失速。 古茗在今年上半年营收、利润及门店总GMV均实现同比增长，可首席执行官王云安仍在财报会上表达 了对补贴退潮的忧虑与谨慎——财报数据上，上半年古茗单加盟商开店数从2.2锐减到1.9，这代表着老 加盟商再开店的意愿下降明显。 茶百道2025年上半年财报也显示，中国市场的门店数量增速也到了近年最低，同比仅增加0.7%。喜茶 方面，据极海品牌监测的数据，截至2025年10月 ...

摩登东方茶，多品牌矩阵齐发力 沪上阿姨(2589) 沪上阿姨首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读： 公司实施"一体两翼"战略，多品牌开店潜力较大。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 3,348 | 3,285 | 4,132 | 4,685 | 5,354 | | (+/-)% | 52.3% | -1.9% | 25.8% | 13.4% | 14.3% | | 毛利润 | 1,017 | 1,027 | 1,298 | 1,471 | 1,681 ...

Industry Overview - In 2023, China's ready-to-drink tea market reached a scale of 258.5 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.0% from 2018 to 2023. It is expected to grow to 573.2 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 17.3% from 2023 to 2028 [1][10][21]. Growth Drivers - The growth of the ready-to-drink tea market is driven by four main factors: rising temperatures, substitution of soft drinks, release of demand in lower-tier markets, and the addictive nature of ready-to-drink tea [1][10][21]. - Rising average temperatures and an increase in extreme hot days stimulate tea consumption, as tea is often an impulsive purchase [12][16]. - Ready-to-drink tea is increasingly replacing soft drinks, with 87.4% of respondents reporting increased consumption of ready-to-drink tea and 56.2% indicating a decrease in soft drink consumption [16][21]. - The demand in lower-tier markets is gradually being met as quality ready-to-drink tea shops expand into these areas, with a growth rate of 30.7% from 2018 to 2023 [17][21]. - Ready-to-drink tea has a certain level of addictiveness, leading to high frequency and loyalty in consumption, with current consumption levels in China significantly lower than in developed countries [21][25]. Competitive Landscape - The market concentration among the top five brands (CR5) is significant, reaching 49% in 2024, with the leading brand, Mixue Ice City, holding a market share of 20.9% [1][27][32]. - The competition is characterized by a clear structure in the low-price segment, intense competition in the mid-price segment, and price reductions among high-end brands seeking survival [27][32]. - The franchise model has become the preferred expansion strategy, allowing brands to leverage local resources and reduce costs [32][62]. Market Segmentation - The low-price segment is dominated by Mixue Ice City, which has established a strong cost advantage through scale and supply chain efficiency [37][41]. - The mid-price segment is highly competitive, with brands like Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, and Hu Shang A Yi emerging as key players, each with unique strategies [46][55]. - High-end brands have been forced to lower prices to remain competitive, with significant changes in pricing strategies observed among brands like Heytea and Nayuki [58][60]. Future Outlook - The ready-to-drink tea market has the potential to exceed 700 billion yuan in the medium term, with a projected market size of 713 billion yuan based on population growth and increased consumption [22][26]. - The industry is expected to experience a phase of consolidation, with smaller brands being phased out as larger brands continue to expand [8][62].

Core Viewpoint - The tea beverage industry has shifted from a brand-centric model to a fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) approach, emphasizing scale and efficiency over brand loyalty and innovation [1][9][26] Group 1: Industry Trends - The competition in the tea beverage market has intensified, with brands focusing on price and convenience rather than unique offerings [1][9] - The trend of fast consumerization in tea beverages continues, with brands like Gu Ming and Mi Xue Bing Cheng engaging in aggressive pricing strategies [1][4] - The number of stores and operational efficiency have become the core competitive advantages for leading companies in the industry [1][3] Group 2: Franchise and Store Operations - Most major tea brands operate primarily through franchise models, with Luckin Coffee being an exception with a significant number of direct stores [3][4] - Mi Xue Bing Cheng has opened over 6,500 stores in six months, indicating a rapid expansion that could exceed 10,000 stores for the year [7][8] - The average number of stores per franchisee for Mi Xue Bing Cheng is 2.4, compared to less than two for other brands, highlighting its appeal to franchisees [8] Group 3: Financial Performance and Efficiency - The financial performance of leading brands varies significantly, with Ba Wang Cha Ji showing a sharp decline in revenue and profit despite having the highest average revenue per store [15][16] - Mi Xue Bing Cheng and Gu Ming have maintained stable revenue while expanding, while other brands have seen declines [16] - The cost structure for franchisees is heavily influenced by the operational efficiency of the brand, with Mi Xue Bing Cheng having the lowest employee-to-store ratio [19] Group 4: Marketing and Brand Strategy - Marketing expenditures vary widely among brands, with Ba Wang Cha Ji historically spending more on marketing per unit of revenue compared to others [19][22] - The proliferation of stores serves as a form of advertising, with brands like Mi Xue Bing Cheng leveraging their extensive network for promotional activities [22][23] - The boundaries between tea and coffee brands are blurring, as companies diversify their product offerings to capture more market share [26]

Core Viewpoint - The recent wave of closures among both established and emerging bubble tea brands indicates a significant market reshaping, transitioning from quantity-driven expansion to a focus on quality and operational efficiency [1][18][31]. Group 1: Brand Closures - Numerous bubble tea brands, including the newly popular PinkShake and the long-standing 813 Baishan, have recently closed stores, with PinkShake shutting down all locations just over a year after opening [2][3][4]. - Seven Bus, once a leading brand in Xiamen, has seen its store count plummet from over 400 to fewer than 20, highlighting the rapid decline of even previously successful brands [9]. - OONE CCUP also announced the closure of its Ningbo store just a year after opening, reflecting a broader trend of closures across the industry [10]. Group 2: Market Trends - The bubble tea industry is experiencing a significant contraction, with 15.7 million stores disappearing in the past year, marking the highest closure rate in the sector [17]. - As of mid-2025, the total number of bubble tea stores across 26 major brands has only increased by 858, indicating a stagnation in growth [16]. - The market is shifting from a growth phase to a consolidation phase, with many mid-tier brands facing closure while top brands continue to expand [11][15]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Nayuki Tea reported a revenue of 2.178 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 14.4% decrease year-on-year, primarily due to the closure of underperforming stores [13]. - The company closed 160 stores in the first half of 2025, including 132 direct-operated and 28 franchise locations, as part of its restructuring efforts [14]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is increasingly defined by quality and operational efficiency rather than mere expansion, with brands needing to focus on supply chain management and product differentiation to survive [31][32]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards "survival of the fittest," where only brands that can adapt to changing consumer preferences and maintain quality will thrive [18][21].

Core Viewpoint - The "New Tea Drink Zhu-Zun Creation" initiative aims to promote high-quality development of the tea industry in the Zhu-Zun region, leveraging regional cooperation and cultural integration to expand market reach and enhance brand recognition [9][40][87]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "New Tea Drink Zhu-Zun Creation" event was held at the Chengdu International Financial Center, showcasing the vibrant tea culture and its integration into modern lifestyle [2][3][4]. - The event gathered nearly a hundred representatives from the tea and new tea drink industry chains across Sichuan, Zhuhai, and Zunyi, including notable brands like Bawang Tea Ji and Nayuki Tea [14][15]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The total output value of the Zunyi new tea drink industry cluster is projected to reach 718 million yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 1 billion yuan by 2025 [41]. - The initiative aims to establish Zunyi as a national new tea drink supply chain center, promoting inter-provincial cooperation and resource sharing [39][40]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between the Zhu-Zun New Tea Drink Research Institute and the Sichuan Tea Circulation Association to foster innovation and resource integration within the tea industry [74]. - The event emphasized the importance of collaboration among industry organizations, research institutions, and enterprises to enhance the value chain and drive industry upgrades [46][47]. Group 4: Market Trends - The tea industry is transitioning from traditional hot drinks to ready-to-drink beverages, with a focus on high-value functional products, reflecting the evolving consumer preferences [49][50]. - The initiative aims to address new consumption trends and enhance the competitiveness of the tea industry through technological advancements and industrialization [51][52]. Group 5: Regional Advantages - Zunyi, located on the world’s tea production golden line, benefits from a unique geographical environment that supports high-quality tea cultivation [57][59]. - The region is recognized as a key area for high-quality green tea and red tea production, with advantages in quality control and innovative upgrades [59][60].

Core Viewpoint - The company Yango Beverage, the parent company of "Six Walnuts," reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, attributing the downturn primarily to decreased sales of walnut milk products [1][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2.465 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.19% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 744 million yuan, down 27.76% year-on-year - This marks the first instance in three years where both revenue and net profit have declined simultaneously [1][3]. Sales and Market Dynamics - Sales revenue declined across all seven major regions, with the largest three regions experiencing double-digit declines [4]. - The walnut milk product, which constitutes approximately 90% of the company's total revenue, has seen a significant drop in sales, reflecting a lack of competitiveness in the product and brand [3][4]. Marketing and Advertising - The company increased its advertising and marketing expenses to 330 million yuan, a rise of 3.73% year-on-year, marking the first increase in three years - Despite the increased spending, the sales expense ratio rose from 10.81% to 13.37%, indicating ineffective marketing efforts [1][3]. Investment Strategy - Despite the declining sales of walnut milk, the company has not introduced new product plans or acquisitions to address growth challenges [6]. - Yango Beverage has engaged in significant cross-industry investments, totaling 1.1 billion yuan in 11 companies across sectors like renewable energy and media, which are unrelated to its core business [9][10]. - The company’s investment activities generated a net cash flow of approximately 980 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.56% [11]. Research and Development - The company has spent relatively little on product research and development, with R&D expenses amounting to 18 million yuan, a decrease of 11.2% year-on-year [12].