格隆汇1月8日｜据证券日报，2026年中国人民银行工作会议于1月5日至6日召开，会议强调"灵活高效运 用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕"等。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青预计，2026年央 行将降息2次，降息幅度为20个基点至30个基点（0.2个百分点至0.3个百分点），初步预计上半年和下半 年各降息一次。另外，从推动房地产市场止跌回稳等角度出发，2026年还有可能通过单独引导5年期以 上LPR（贷款市场报价利率）较大幅度下行等方式，对居民房贷实施定向降息。2026年央行将降准1次 至2次，幅度为0.5个百分点至1个百分点，接下来可重点关注春节前降准能否落地。 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration issued a detailed implementation plan for the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, which is expected to stimulate consumption and support domestic demand while potentially delaying overall interest rate cuts [1] - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining policy continuity and stability, with a focus on solidifying credit support and preventing fund circularity, indicating a shift towards structural regulation rather than an increase in total credit [2] - The current market shows a strong stock performance but weak bond performance, with multiple factors such as tax period cash flow tightening and rising stock market volumes contributing to a downward adjustment in the bond market [3] Group 2 - The bond market's adjustment is limited due to the need for further recovery in domestic demand, and stability in the bond market requires signals of liquidity support from the central bank [3] - The central bank's increased reverse repurchase operations on August 19 showed initial signs of stabilization in the bond market, with attention on the upcoming MLF operations and fluctuations in funding rates [3] - The report highlights the need to address excessive low-price competition in certain industries and promote consumption to achieve reasonable price recovery, which will be a key policy direction moving forward [2]