持续放大政策效应、改革效应，巩固经济回升势头。 上海市委季度工作会议今天下午举行。上海市委书记陈吉宁主持会议并强调，要深入学习贯彻习近平总 书记考察上海重要讲话精神，强化大局意识，强化主动作为，强化整体推进，干字当头、奋力一跳，努 力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，为"十四五"收官、"十五五"开局打下坚实基础。 市信访办扎实推进信访工作法治化，在全国率先探索建立涉法涉诉信访工作衔接协同机制，稳妥规范化 解突出矛盾，12345市民服务热线提质增效，形成有效答疑释惑的政策知识库，围绕"十五五"规划编 制，实施专项人民建议征集，召开77场市民圆桌会、收集建议1万余条。但在推动矛盾化解协同联动、 数据赋能城市治理、建立健全基层工作机制等方面仍存不足。 陈吉宁结合国庆中秋假期城市服务保障和运行安全情况，三季度以来市委抓经济运行调度、招商引资和 企业服务以及各区、各部门落实推进情况，同与会同志作了深入分析，研判发展形势，明确工作重点。 陈吉宁指出，当前外部环境依然复杂严峻，完成全年目标任务需要倍加努力、加力冲刺。要进一步提高 经济运行调度的科学性、精准性，持续放大政策效应、改革效应，巩固经济回升势头。消费潜力要充分 释放， ...

发改委：从需求侧看，政策效能持续显现，展现出较强的韧性和抗压能力。在消费方面，以旧换新相关零售额继续保持较快增长。不过，经济回升向好的基础仍需进一步巩固。下一步将持续发力，适时加力实施宏观政策。同时也将持续加强经济的监测、预测、预警，做好政策预研储备，根据形势变化及时推出。 ...

Market Overview - On September 17, the A-share market opened lower but experienced a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3849 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34 points, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16% to 13215.446 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 24,032 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Strong performers included multi-financial, optical optoelectronics, photovoltaic equipment, and battery sectors, while precious metals, commercial retail, fertilizers, and tourism sectors lagged[3] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, with multi-financial and wind power equipment leading the increases[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.73 times and 49.46 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3][14] Policy and Economic Outlook - The State Council has emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery, with multiple favorable policies in place to support the market[3] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on structural policies[3] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid blind chasing of high prices, while looking for opportunities in sectors like multi-financial, optical optoelectronics, photovoltaic equipment, and batteries[3][14] - Continuous net inflows of global funds into the A-share market and a shift of household savings towards capital markets are creating a sustained source of incremental funds[3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [16]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with notable performance in the automotive, gaming, agriculture, and coal sectors, while jewelry, precious metals, insurance, and aerospace sectors lagged [2][3]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 15.78 times and 48.51 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][15]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 23,034 billion, indicating a strong market activity level [3][15]. - Government policies are expected to support economic recovery, with a focus on consumer promotion and real estate stabilization, providing a solid foundation for the market [3][15]. - Global capital is flowing into the A-share market, with domestic savings shifting towards capital markets, creating a continuous source of incremental funds [3][15]. - The market is anticipated to present new investment opportunities amid fluctuations, with a recommendation to focus on sectors such as automotive, gaming, energy metals, and healthcare services [3][15]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On September 15, the A-share market faced resistance after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index encountering resistance around 3,879 points [8]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,860.50 points, down 0.26%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.51% [9][10]. - Over 60% of stocks declined, with the gaming, agriculture, automotive, and coal sectors showing the most significant gains [8][10]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with a focus on monitoring policy, capital flow, and external market changes [3][15]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the automotive, gaming, energy metals, and healthcare sectors [3][15].

Core Insights - The Tianhong ChiNext ETF (code: 159977) has seen a 2.06% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains with a trading volume of 113 million yuan [6] - The Tianhong Sci-Tech Index ETF (code: 589860) rose by 1.90%, with a turnover rate of 12.1% and a trading volume of 49.59 million yuan, indicating active market participation [6] - The Tianhong CSI A500 ETF (code: 159360) increased by 0.50%, also achieving three consecutive days of gains, with a turnover rate of 3.54% and a trading volume of 63.59 million yuan [6] Fund Performance - As of September 1, 2025, the Tianhong ChiNext ETF (159977) reached a new high in scale at 9.655 billion yuan, the highest in the past six months [7] - The Tianhong ChiNext ETF encompasses four high-growth sectors: pharmaceuticals, new energy, computing power, and brokerage, with a valuation at the 38.36th percentile of its ten-year history, indicating it is undervalued compared to broad-based indices [7] - The Tianhong Sci-Tech Index ETF covers 97% of the Sci-Tech board's market value, focusing on hard technology and balancing investments in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine, with over 80% in strategic emerging industries [7] Economic Indicators - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index for August were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5%, respectively, showing a slight increase from the previous month [7] - Analysts suggest that the economic indicators reflect positive changes in China's economy, with expectations for continued release of domestic demand potential in September and the fourth quarter [7] Market Outlook - Huatai Securities indicates that the extension of short-term tariff exemptions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts may improve risk appetite, with a shift towards fundamentals expected in the medium term [8] - China Galaxy Securities anticipates that the market will maintain a high central tendency, with active trading and supportive policies driving market conditions, while structural allocation opportunities should be monitored [8]

Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady development trend, with a need for macro policies to effectively release domestic demand potential and promote dual circulation [1][2] - In July, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 5.9%, while social retail sales grew by 3.7%, down from 4.8% in June [1][2] - Fixed asset investment from January to July grew by 1.6%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments showing a slowdown [1][2] Industrial Performance - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 6.8%, influenced by slowing investment and consumption growth [2] - The producer price index for industrial producers fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% [2] Consumption and Policy Measures - Starting in August, measures to expand consumption include the introduction of childcare subsidies and the exemption of certain education fees, aimed at boosting consumer spending [3][4] - The third batch of 690 billion yuan in central fiscal consumption subsidies will be implemented, with a fourth batch expected to continue until the end of the year, supporting retail growth [2][3] Challenges and Future Outlook - The real estate sector and local infrastructure investment present ongoing challenges, requiring time to address accumulated issues [3][4] - Short-term factors such as extreme weather and adjustments in consumption subsidies have impacted July's economic data, but the introduction of macroeconomic policies in August is expected to promote effective investment and enhance domestic demand [4]

Economic Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported that economic policies are showing effectiveness, and the economy is expected to continue its recovery in the second half of the year [1][2] - The economic environment has become increasingly complex, with pressures from demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakened expectations, exacerbated by factors like domestic COVID-19 outbreaks and the Ukraine crisis [1][2] Industrial Performance - Summer grain production has been successful, and there has been a notable improvement in both industrial and service sectors [1] - After a brief decline in April, industrial production returned to positive growth in May, with June showing continued acceleration; national power generation increased by 4% year-on-year [1] Market Demand - Investment and exports are playing a significant role in driving demand, with a steady recovery in consumer spending [1] - In the first five months, the number of new projects started increased by 26.1% year-on-year, and planned total investment for these projects grew by 23.3% [1] - Consumer spending showed a marked recovery during the Dragon Boat Festival, with online retail growth and a significant 1.7 times increase in national box office revenue in June compared to the previous month [1] Regional Economic Performance - Economic stability is being maintained across key regions, with most provinces showing positive growth, particularly in Fujian, Shandong, Hubei, and Hunan [2] - The central and western regions are outperforming the national average, with provinces like Jiangxi, Chongqing, and Guizhou experiencing rapid growth [2] - Regions heavily impacted by the pandemic, such as Shanghai and Jilin, are seeing significant recovery, with Shanghai's key enterprises doubling their electricity consumption compared to the same period last year [2] Future Outlook - The NDRC emphasizes that the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy remain strong, with macroeconomic policies expected to further support recovery in the second half of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that there is currently no preset plan for interest rate hikes, and any consideration for raising rates will only occur if the economy and prices show signs of recovery in the future [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is maintaining its current monetary policy stance without immediate plans for interest rate increases [1] - Future expectations regarding interest rate adjustments may become a reality if economic and price conditions improve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The fundamental positive outlook for China's economy remains unchanged despite complex international conditions and domestic structural challenges [1] Group 1 - The international environment continues to be complex and severe, with many unpredictable factors contributing to instability and uncertainty [1] - Domestic cyclical and structural contradictions are intertwined, posing challenges to economic recovery [1] - There are numerous favorable conditions for sustained economic recovery in China [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The key to economic recovery lies in the direction of the cash - flow statement, not "policy exceeding expectations". The economy may continue to recover even without super - expected policies, and subsequent economic conditions may remain favorable [2][4] - The pre - condition for interest rate cuts is an economic downturn, which may not be met currently. If conditions are triggered, the central bank is more likely to cut interest rates by 10BP [6] - There is an upward risk for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield. The report is optimistic about the convertible bond market in 2025, favoring domestic demand in the second and third quarters and external demand in the fourth quarter [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Content Economic Recovery and Policy Impact - Economic recovery does not rely on "policy exceeding expectations". For example, from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, there were no super - expected policies, but the economy exceeded market expectations. Also, past policy measures like interest rate cuts and special bond issuances did not always lead to positive market responses [2][3] - The key to economic recovery is the direction of the cash - flow statement. Fiscal policy (accelerating bond issuance and use), debt resolution methods (expanding cash - flow statements after September 2024), and monetary policy (moderately rising social financing stock growth) all contribute to economic recovery. Incremental policies in finance, currency, and real estate are expected to further expand the cash - flow statement [4] - Although exports may decline due to US tariffs, the decline may be better than expected. After Q4 2024, with the cash - flow statement turning upward and policy support, the economy may maintain a good level [5] Interest Rate Cut Conditions - "Timely" and "opportunistic" for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are just different in applicable levels. The condition for "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" in the Politburo meeting may be an obvious downward economic trend. As the economy has not shown a significant downward trend in the past 5 months, the measure has not been implemented. If the economy stabilizes and recovers in Q2 and Q3 2025, the condition for interest rate cuts may not be triggered. If triggered, the central bank may cut interest rates by 10BP [6] Bond Yield and Convertible Bond Market - The current pricing of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield implies a significant decline in DR007 or OMO interest rate cuts. If the capital interest rate does not decline significantly from late April to May, there is an upward risk for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield. The triggers for bond yield increases may include capital, economic, and stock market factors [6][7] - The report is optimistic about the convertible bond market in 2025. If the market corrects after the April 2025 Politburo meeting, it may present an opportunity similar to that in January 2025. It favors domestic demand in the second and third quarters and external demand in the fourth quarter, with possible reasons including China's industrial chain trends, China - EU negotiation progress, and China's substitution of US exports [7]