节能技术群 未来 5 ～ 15 年，内燃机仍将是汽车重要动力来源 节能技术群方面的判断认为，应推进节能低碳多路径并举发展，未来5～15年，内燃机仍将是汽车的重要动力来源。到2040年，含内燃机乘用车（HEV、 PHEV、REEV）销量在乘用车新车中的比例将达到1/3；到2035年，传统能源乘用车实现全面混动化；到2040年，混合动力汽车在传统能源商用车新车占 比将超过65％，低碳零碳商用车的渗透率也将达到15％以上。 "节能技术群的总体目标非常明确，即通过系统性的技术革新，为汽车产业在2060年前实现碳中和奠定坚实基础。为了实现这一总目标，我们为乘用车和 商用车规划了清晰且差异化的技术路径。"中国汽车工程学会监事长、中国汽车工程研究院股份有限公司原董事长，节能技术群召集人李开国告诉记 者，"对于乘用车，我们的核心策略是'动力升级，混动是重点'。对于商用车，由于应用场景复杂，我们采取'多动力并存'的务实路径。" 从产品角度来看，预计2040年，新能源乘用车渗透率达到85％以上，其中BEV占80％；新能源商用车的应用场景将从当前的城市、短途场景不断拓展至中 长途场景；到2040年，新能源商用车渗透率达到75％左右 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the remarkable achievements of China's automotive industry, particularly in the fields of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and smart technology, highlighting its global leadership and the strategic importance of government policies in driving this transformation [5][8][20]. Group 1: Achievements of China's Automotive Industry - China's NEV production and sales have ranked first globally for ten consecutive years, with a projected market share of 38% by 2024 [15]. - In 2024, domestic NEV sales are expected to reach 12.87 million units, with a penetration rate of 40.9%, up from just 0.9% in 2015 [17]. - China has become the world's largest automobile exporter, with exports increasing from 1.08 million units in 2020 to an estimated 5.86 million units in 2024 [20]. - The number of NEV charging facilities in China is the highest globally, with over 17.35 million charging points expected by 2025, representing more than 70% of the global total [21]. Group 2: Underlying Logic - The development of NEVs is driven by energy security, environmental safety, and the automotive industry's significance to the national economy [24][28]. - The reliance on imported oil is high, with a projected dependency rate of 72% in 2024, prompting the push for NEVs to reduce this dependency [24]. - The automotive sector contributes approximately 6-7% to China's GDP, making it a crucial pillar of the economy [28]. Group 3: Top-Level Design - The Chinese government has established a "four-in-one" top-level design framework for NEV development, focusing on technological innovation, market cultivation, ecosystem construction, and infrastructure support [30]. - Policies such as purchase subsidies and tax exemptions have been implemented to stimulate early market growth [31]. - The "dual credit" policy has been introduced to balance the development of traditional and new energy vehicles [31]. Group 4: Realistic Foundation - China has maintained its position as the world's largest automotive market since 2009, supported by rapid economic growth and increasing consumer purchasing power [37][39]. - The historical contributions of joint ventures have built a comprehensive automotive supply chain in China, enhancing local capabilities [40]. - The complete industrial system in China supports the resilience and competitiveness of the automotive supply chain, with a domestic production rate of over 95% for key components expected by 2030 [41]. Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities - The automotive industry faces intense competition, leading to price wars that could undermine long-term technological competitiveness [45]. - Despite challenges, the industry is focusing on innovation and efficiency to meet consumer demands for smart and electric vehicles [46]. - China's automotive supply chain is highly integrated, allowing for rapid response and recovery during crises, such as the chip shortage in 2022 [46].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is at a critical juncture, requiring decisive actions to overcome challenges such as "involution" and to ensure sustainable growth and competitiveness in the global market [6][10][16]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In 2023, the total output value of the Chinese automotive industry reached 11 trillion RMB, accounting for nearly 10% of the national GDP, surpassing real estate for the first time [9]. - Despite the growth in market share for domestic brands and the rapid penetration of new energy vehicles, overall industry profits are declining, with a widening gap compared to the average profit margin of industrial enterprises [10][11]. Group 2: Key Decisions for the Automotive Industry - **Decision 1: Form a National Consensus Against Involution** The urgency to combat "involution" in the automotive sector has gained recognition at the national level, with various government meetings emphasizing the need for industry self-discipline and regulation [20][21]. - **Decision 2: Legal Norms Must Govern Order** Recent legislative actions, such as the revised "Regulations on Payment of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises' Receivables," aim to establish legal frameworks to prevent involution and ensure fair competition [22][23]. - **Decision 3: Safety as the Bottom Line for Automotive Products** Safety must be prioritized over cost-cutting measures, as neglecting safety can lead to severe consequences for both consumers and brands [25][28]. - **Decision 4: Exceeding User Expectations is Essential** Automotive companies must focus on product quality and innovation to surpass user expectations, rather than relying solely on price competition [30][31]. - **Decision 5: AI to Empower Business Operations** Embracing AI technology can enhance decision-making, production efficiency, and supply chain management, driving the transformation of the automotive industry [32][36]. - **Decision 6: Collaboration Over Comprehensive Control** Companies should focus on their core competencies and seek external partnerships for non-core areas, promoting efficiency through specialization [38][41]. - **Decision 7: A Harmonious Ecosystem is Crucial for Future Success** A balanced ecosystem involving manufacturers, suppliers, and consumers is necessary for sustainable growth, emphasizing mutual benefits and fair profit distribution [42][46]. - **Decision 8: Commitment to Global Localization** As the Chinese automotive market leads globally, companies must adopt a strategy of global localization to mitigate risks associated with international operations [47][50]. - **Decision 9: The Development of New Automobiles is Just Beginning** The transition from traditional vehicles to "new automobiles" is ongoing, with significant advancements still required in areas like AI and smart technology [52][54]. - **Decision 10: Build Barriers and Accumulate Resources for Future Leadership** Establishing technological, brand, and supply chain barriers while maintaining financial reserves is essential for long-term success in the automotive industry [56][60].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is undergoing significant transformation, with joint venture brands accelerating their development to meet diverse user needs, exemplified by the launch of the bZ5 by FAW Toyota, marking a new chapter in the era of intelligent electric vehicles [2][3] Group 1: Product Launch - FAW Toyota launched the bZ5 on June 10, offering four versions: 550 JOY, 550 PRO, 550 PRO Intelligent Edition, and 630 PRO, with a starting official price of 129,800 yuan [2] - The bZ5 is seen as a flagship product for FAW Toyota in the intelligent electric era, representing a "new power" for joint ventures [2] Group 2: Strategic Focus - The concept of "new power" includes four elements: "new users," "new cars," "new marketing," and "new mission" [2] - "New users" are defined as individuals across age groups with a youthful mindset and strong opinions, while "new cars" refer to high-quality, high-tech models that attract these users [2] Group 3: Safety and Originality - The bZ5 emphasizes safety and originality, adhering to Toyota's stringent standards and manufacturing quality [3] - The 550 PRO version features a comprehensive in-car biological monitoring system that alerts the driver if a child is left inside the vehicle, showcasing advanced safety measures [3] - As the first product developed by a Chinese team under Toyota's RCE system, the bZ5 signifies a milestone in Toyota's localization strategy in China [3] Group 4: Market Positioning - FAW Toyota aims to leverage its localization strategy to attract more "new users" and enable more Chinese consumers to access high-quality intelligent electric vehicles [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. (China Automotive Research) is celebrating its 60th anniversary and is focusing on its mission to lead the automotive industry and support the construction of a strong automotive nation in the new automotive era [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in March 1965, China Automotive Research was originally named Chongqing Heavy Truck Research Institute and became the first technology service company in the automotive industry to go public in 2012 [2] - The company's assets have grown from millions to billions, with steady increases in revenue and profit, establishing itself as a leading third-party institution in the industry [2] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.65%, and a net profit of 908 million yuan, up 8.56% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Innovation and Development - China Automotive Research has consistently focused on innovation, increasing R&D investment, and achieving significant breakthroughs, including the development of high-end testing equipment and key components for domestic alternatives [3] - The company has accumulated 1,059 patents and received 285 national and industry-level technology awards, establishing the "China Automotive Research Evaluation" as a trusted standard in the automotive industry [3] - The company has launched a new "117" technology innovation system aimed at transforming from equipment-driven to product-driven development [3] Group 3: Market Strategy and Trends - The automotive industry is undergoing profound changes driven by carbon neutrality and the Internet of Things, with AI leading a new wave of technological innovation [4] - The concept of "new automotive" is defined as data-driven vehicles with self-evolution capabilities, incorporating traditional hardware, smart capabilities, and continuous evolution through AI and big data [4] - China Automotive Research is expanding its market presence, planning to establish bases in East, South, and North China, while also actively exploring international markets [3][4] Group 4: Future Vision - The company aims to transition from industry service to ecological leadership, covering the entire product lifecycle and fostering collaboration across the supply chain [5] - It plans to evolve from a solution provider in the automotive sector to a globally competitive service provider in the transportation industry [5] - The strategic blueprint includes enhancing core capabilities, focusing on digitalization and AI, and building a high-quality professional talent team while expanding global operations [5]

Core Insights - The core theme of the forum is the ecological development of the automotive industry, emphasizing that "whoever masters ecology will master the automotive industry" [1][6] Market Trends - The domestic automotive market in China has surpassed 26 million units in sales, with projections estimating total sales to reach approximately 30 million units by 2030 [4] - Domestic brand sales in the commercial vehicle sector are expected to reach 4 million units by 2030, with significant growth in light and medium commercial vehicles [4] - By 2030, domestic brands are projected to achieve sales of 2.22 million units in the passenger vehicle sector, increasing their market share from nearly 67% to 70% [4] - In the overseas market, domestic brands are expected to reach sales of 10 million units by 2030, with 6 million units being exported from China and 4-5 million units produced overseas [4] Industry Transformation - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation driven by carbon neutrality and the interconnectedness of various sectors, redefining vehicles as not just transportation tools but as intelligent, data-driven entities [5][6] - The concept of "New Automotive" is introduced, which refers to vehicles that are data-driven, self-evolving, and capable of providing intelligent mobility solutions [6][8] Innovation and Collaboration - The future of the automotive industry requires a shift from traditional manufacturing to a focus on technology and service-oriented business models [6][7] - Companies must embrace collaborative innovation, moving away from isolated development to a model that encourages cross-industry partnerships and shared expertise [8] - The role of technology leaders (CTO Plus) is emphasized, combining technical and business acumen to drive innovation and product lifecycle management [7] AI and Future Outlook - AI is identified as a critical driver of change in the automotive industry, with the potential to reshape product forms, collaboration models, and business strategies [8][9] - The industry must prioritize rapid iteration and data-driven decision-making to remain competitive in the evolving landscape [8] - A call for openness and innovation is made, highlighting the importance of intellectual property and sustainable development in the context of AI integration [9]