今日（1.9），沪指涨0.92%站上4100点，两市成交额突破3万亿大关！受CPI数据利好，消费ETF（159928）收涨0.38%，全天成交额超5亿元！资金持续大幅 涌入，继前3日净流入12亿元后，消费ETF（159928）再获净申购2.66亿份，累计揽金超14亿元！截至1月8日，消费ETF（159928）最新规模超218亿元，同 类持续领先！ 消息面上，1月9日，统计局发布数据显示，2025年12月份，全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比上涨0.8%。12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦 临近，居民消费需求增加，CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国际大宗商品价格传导拉动以及国内重点 行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 聚焦大消费板块，估值性价比仍极具吸引力。截至1月8日，消费ETF（159928）标的指数市盈率TTM为19.29，处于近10年2.76%分位点，比近10年历史上超 97%的时间便宜，估值性价比更高！ 港股方面，港股通消费50ETF（159268）亦涨0.2 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 ◼ 消费"K 型分化"出现的原因 ➢ 从需求端来看，代际人口变化以及宏观政策从投资于物逐步转向投资于 人两方面因素下消费者消费理念的变化是消费市场"K 型分化"的重要 原因，情绪价值成为了消费者除实用价值外的另一重要考量，对于"高 度奢华"以及"极具性价比"两种能带来高价值的消费需求明显提升。 从供给端来看，零售商面临的存量市场竞争加剧和产品竞争力的根本性 转变，构成了消费"K 型分化"的市场基础。 ◼ 消费"K 型分化"背后反映出的理论转变 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 宏观深度报告 20260108 "该省省、该花花"——中国消费的"K 型分化" 2026 年 01 月 08 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：近些年，在居民收入结构调整和代际人口变动等多方面因素 的影响下，我国消费市场出现明显的两极化特征，即"K 型分化"，在 K 型分化的一端，是具有高情绪价值、高溢价的高端品质消费，而在 K 型 分化的另一端，则是具有高实用价值 ...

Macro Economic Group - The report indicates that the US PPI remained stable in September, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 0.1%, slightly below the expected 0.2% [5] - Retail sales in the US showed a disappointing performance in September, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, indicating a weakening consumer spending momentum [5][6] - The report highlights a "K-shaped" recovery in consumer spending, with a decline in auto sales attributed to the expiration of electric vehicle tax credits, alongside a soft job market and low consumer confidence [6] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-share rating to "Sell," lowering the lithium price forecast for the second half of 2026 by 14% to $9,500 per ton due to weak downstream market feedback and slowing inventory replenishment [12] - The report predicts a 12% shortfall in global lithium capacity relative to demand in the second half of 2025, transitioning to a 10% surplus by the second half of 2026 [12] - The report remains optimistic about mid-term lithium demand and price stability, citing a projected 46% growth in energy storage battery demand in 2026 [12] Consumer Group - Bilibili reported Q3 total revenue of 7.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.8%, with adjusted net profit soaring by 233% to 786 million yuan [14][15] - The company achieved a GAAP operating profit of 354 million yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 66.7 million yuan in the same period last year, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [15] - Advertising revenue grew by 23% year-on-year to 2.57 billion yuan, becoming the core growth engine for the company, while gaming revenue declined by 17% to 1.51 billion yuan due to high base effects from the previous year [15]

Core Insights - A pervasive sense of "money tightness" is emerging across various sectors of society, indicating a potential entry into an era characterized as the "money shortage era" by 2025 [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The consumption market is exhibiting a pronounced "K-shaped" structure, with one end seeing growth in budget-friendly options and the other maintaining stability in luxury goods and high-end experiences [3][5] - The middle tier of consumption, including affordable luxury brands and mid-range dining, is rapidly collapsing as consumers prioritize either essential goods or premium experiences [5] Group 2: Savings Behavior - A shift towards "defensive finance" is evident, with rising household savings rates despite lower interest rates, driven by uncertainty about future income [7] - The trend of "revenge spending" has transitioned to "revenge saving," reflecting a collective mindset focused on building financial security [7] Group 3: Cash Flow and Financial Security - Many individuals are becoming "invisible poor," where fixed expenses consume most of their income, leaving little for discretionary spending [8] - The importance of cash flow is heightened, with individuals becoming more cautious about non-essential expenditures due to the risk of unexpected financial burdens [8] Group 4: Asset Valuation and Investment - Traditional wealth creation avenues, such as real estate and stock markets, are losing effectiveness, with the real estate market facing long-term adjustments and liquidity issues [9][11] - The volatility in capital markets is making it increasingly difficult for ordinary individuals to achieve rapid wealth growth through investments, leading to a more conservative investment approach [11] Group 5: Employment and Income Diversification - The perception that having a single income source is risky is becoming widespread, prompting many to seek additional income streams through side jobs or freelance work [12] - The need for a "second income curve" is now a necessity for many, as job security diminishes across various sectors [12] Conclusion - The onset of the "money shortage era" is a result of global economic cycles, domestic structural adjustments, and individual financial choices, signaling a departure from previous wealth accumulation strategies [15] - Companies and individuals are encouraged to adapt by reshaping consumption habits, building financial cushions, managing debt prudently, and investing in personal skills to enhance competitiveness [13][14][15]