受美联储降息预期升温、全球供应紧张加剧以及被列入美国关键矿产清单等多重因素推动，白银价格周二强势突破每盎司60美元关口，创下历 史新高。今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，表现远超黄金和铂金。 纽约期货价格上涨4.4%，至每盎司60.97美元，盘中一度触及每盎司61.06美元的高点；现货价格上涨3.9%，至每盎司60.46美元，盘中一度触及 每盎司60.50美元。 作为对比，尽管黄金今年也上涨了60%并突破4200美元大关，但在涨幅力度上仍逊色于白银，导致金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首 次。 引发本轮行情的直接导火索是美联储的货币政策会议。市场普遍押注美联储将在本周三结束的会议上宣布降息25个基点。更为关键的结构性驱 动力来自于供应端的剧烈收缩。除了传统的产需缺口外，美国地质调查局上个月将白银列入"关键矿产"清单，这一举措加剧了市场对供应稳定 的担忧，引发囤货潮。 降息预期叠加供应紧张推动白银价格飙升 隔夜发布的职位空缺（JOLTS）数据略好于预期，导致美联储降息概率微降至87.4%，但这并未阻碍贵金属的上涨步伐。借贷成本的降低通常利 好不产生收益的贵金属资产，投资者正因担忧西方主要经济体的债务 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have experienced a significant increase this year, with a rise of over 97%, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and global supply tightness [1][9]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 1, the spot price of silver reached a historical high of $58.84 per ounce, with COMEX silver futures hitting $59.435 per ounce [2][10]. - On December 2, silver prices quickly retreated below $57 per ounce, fluctuating between $56.79 and $57.39, marking a nearly 2% drop from the previous day's high [11]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in silver prices is attributed to heightened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the probability of a December rate cut now at 86.5%, up from 63% at the end of October [3][12]. - Weak U.S. economic data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have accelerated these expectations, with analysts noting that investors are positioning for a more accommodative monetary policy [3][12]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The silver market is currently experiencing liquidity expectations and a tight physical supply, with rising net exports from China and a return of domestic and U.S. silver inventories to Europe, leading to a temporary decline in global stocks [4][13]. - The Silver Institute's 2025 World Silver Survey indicates a continuous decline in mining output over the past decade, particularly in Central and South America, while industrial demand has steadily increased from nearly 31,000 tons in 2016 to over 36,000 tons projected for 2024 [4][13]. Group 4: Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio has narrowed significantly, with the current ratio at approximately 73, meaning 73 ounces of silver can purchase 1 ounce of gold, down from 89 in late August [5][14]. - Silver's unique position as both a precious and industrial metal has contributed to its price dynamics, with increased physical purchases from India, the world's largest silver consumer, further driving prices up [5][14].

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has surged to a historic high, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 100%, significantly outperforming gold [1] Group 1: Price Movement - On December 1, the London spot silver price reached a historic high, briefly exceeding $57 per ounce, while domestic silver futures peaked at 13,239 yuan per kilogram [1] - As of the latest update, silver prices rose to $56.65 per ounce, marking a 0.48% increase [1] - International silver prices have increased by over 90% this year, continuing to rise for the sixth consecutive trading day [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to renewed concerns over supply tightness in the global market [1] - Market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have contributed to a weaker US dollar, which lowers the holding cost of silver and encourages significant capital inflow into precious metals [1] Group 3: Industrial Demand - The demand for silver in industrial sectors, particularly in photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries, has been consistently growing [1] - This year marks the fifth consecutive year of a global silver supply deficit, estimated at 95 million ounces, providing strong support for silver prices [1]

Group 1 - Silver prices surged to a historic high, continuing a nearly 6% increase from the previous trading day, driven by a combination of a trading interruption at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), ongoing supply tightness, and rising expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut [1] - In the spot market, silver prices rose approximately 1.5% to $57.86 per ounce, breaking the previous week's high, with silver prices nearly doubling this year and marking the sixth consecutive day of gains [1] - Despite record inflows of silver into the London market alleviating some supply shortages, the one-month silver borrowing cost remains high, and other trading hubs, such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange, are experiencing significant supply pressures with silver inventories at a near ten-year low [1] Group 2 - In Asia and Australia, silver and copper mining companies saw their stock prices rise collectively, with Sun Silver Ltd. increasing by 19% and Silver Mines Ltd. rising by 12% [2] - As of the latest update, spot silver prices increased by 0.5% to $57.309 per ounce, while spot gold rose by 0.4% to $4237.91 per ounce, indicating a positive trend in precious metals [3]

Group 1: Silver Price Surge - Silver prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $57 per ounce, driven by supply constraints and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] - The price increase of nearly 6% on the day reflects ongoing concerns about a tight global supply of silver, despite a record influx of 54 million ounces into London [2][3] - The one-month silver borrowing cost remains significantly elevated, indicating persistent supply tightness in the market [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trade Risks - The U.S. Geological Survey has listed silver as a "critical mineral," which may lead to potential tariff discussions, adding a layer of trade risk to the silver market [3] - Since early October, 75 million ounces of silver have exited New York Comex warehouses, raising concerns about potential price spikes and causing traders to be cautious about shipping silver overseas [3] Group 3: Company Insights - China Silver Group (00815) reported a 20.97% decline in total revenue to 4.319 billion yuan and a 31.5% drop in net profit to 9.966 million yuan for 2024, indicating challenges in the silver production sector [4] - Zijin Mining (02899) has shown strong growth with a 5.55% increase in revenue to 78.928 billion yuan and a 62.39% rise in net profit to approximately 10.167 billion yuan, benefiting from rising prices of metals [4] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) maintains a stable silver production as a byproduct of copper and gold refining, with potential for additional revenue if silver prices continue to rise [4]

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 现货白银史上首次突破57美元/盎司，日内涨约1%。白银价格因供应趋紧和美联储降息预期而触及新 高。中国白银库存降至七年新低，10月出口超660吨创历史新高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in silver stocks in the U.S. market, driven by rising silver prices and favorable market conditions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. silver stocks saw notable gains, with First Majestic (AG.US) rising over 7%, Hecla Mining (HL.US) and Silvercorp Metals (SVM.US) increasing over 5%, and Coeur Mining (CDE.US) up over 4% [1] - Spot silver prices surged by 3% to reach $55 per ounce, marking a new record high [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The rise in silver prices is supported by multiple factors, including heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, inflows into silver ETFs, and ongoing supply constraints [1] - The trading halt on the CME Group's Comex for several hours contributed to low liquidity and price volatility in both gold and silver markets on that Friday [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices indicate a market correction after significant gains, with investors taking profits amid easing geopolitical risks and technical overbought conditions [1][4][7]. Price Movements - COMEX December gold futures reached nearly $4,078, while spot gold approached $4,058 before declining to below $3,958, marking a drop of approximately 2.8% for futures and 2.4% for spot [1]. - COMEX December silver futures peaked at $49.965, close to the 1980 record, but fell to $46.89, a decline of 4.3% [4]. Market Sentiment - Analysts attribute the price drop to profit-taking after a period of significant price increases, with geopolitical tensions easing following a preliminary ceasefire agreement in Gaza [7]. - The market is showing signs of caution due to extreme overbought conditions in both gold and silver, as indicated by rising volatility indices [8][9]. Technical Indicators - Gold and silver are in extreme overbought territory, with the Cboe Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) reaching recent highs, suggesting a potential pause or correction in prices [8][10]. - The monthly RSI for gold is at historically high levels, indicating a potential for price adjustments [10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver prices have surged over 67% this year, the largest increase since 1979, driven by supply constraints and strong industrial demand [14][17]. - The London silver market is experiencing tight supply, with rising borrowing costs for silver indicating a significant demand-supply imbalance [17]. Future Outlook - HSBC forecasts silver prices could peak at $53 per ounce this year and $55 next year, with potential corrections anticipated in the latter half of next year [19]. - Continued strong demand from industrial applications and potential dollar depreciation could further support silver prices [18][19].