12月3日，第十届智通财经资本市场年会在深圳南山召开。摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席会议，分享了对 2026- 2027 年全球经济资本市场及中国宏观经济的展望。 他表示，尽管短期宏观挑战仍存，但凭借完整的 AI 产业链优势，中国已成为全球资本多元化配置的必然选择。展望未来两 年，中国将在 "科技为纲、兼顾消费" 的框架下，通过 "按揭贴息" 等政策推动房地产止跌企稳，同步启动税制优化、社保投 入等财税改革，以释放内需、促进消费。 以下为邢自强先生演讲实录： 非常荣幸参加智通财经第十周年年会。今天，我愿简要分享我们新近完成的 2026-2027 年全球经济资本市场及中国宏观经济 展望，抛砖引玉，供各位参考。 Part.01 市场回暖的核心逻辑：三大关键转变 过去一年半，中国资本市场呈现新气象、迈上新台阶。这一变化的核心，源于 2024 年 9 月 24 日以来中国实现的三大转变 —— 政策之变、企业之变与资金之变。 过去五年，中国企业界经历了"严寒大考"：国内房地产调整导致传统需求疲软，海外地缘政治变化与中美关系博弈带来外部 压力。但在这一轮 "严寒大考" 中，多数企业并未停滞退缩，而是厚积薄发、坚韧不 ...

他强调，若这两方面措施能在2026年得到切实落实，也许到2027年整个经济，包括企业的盈利、老百姓 找工作的收入预期，都会回到一个更为理想的正循环。 12月7日，"和讯财经中国2025年会"在北京举行，主题为"寻找中国经济破局之路"。摩根士丹利中国首 席经济学家邢自强在演讲中表示，当前整体经济面临较大挑战，但中国已显现出新的亮点，资本市场迈 上了新的台阶。未来经济的破局关键，将主要依赖于发展新质生产力与调整房地产政策两大路径。 来源：睿见Economy 为实现这一目标，邢自强提出两方面关键举措。首先，应该通过大幅推进社会保障体系改革，缓解公众 后顾之忧，从而释放消费潜力。其次，在房地产领域应实施更有力且能直接见效的政策，帮助它止跌回 稳，以减少对消费者和财富下行的效应。 回顾过去一年零三个月中国的资本市场，他表示，信心上了一个巨大的台阶。"两三年前我们针对海内 外打破低物价循环陷阱的经验和教训，制作的关于中国走出这一轮的图谱，现在看起来在半路上已经在 打破思维定式的过程中迈出了坚实的一步，但是步伐还是温和的，也许还要再经历一两年左右的探索、 调整。" 邢自强谈到，根据"十五五"规划建议所指引的合理方向，未来应 ...

Group 1 - The core significance of the "9·24" policy shift is to restore confidence in the capital market and among entrepreneurs [2][13] - The past decade's perception of "dollar assets being the only star" is gradually being demystified [2][23] - The policy tone for 2026 is likely to remain gradual and moderate, with fiscal policy expected to exert slightly more force than in 2025, but not significantly [2][30] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological innovation, which is expected to highlight new productive forces amid economic challenges, although these cannot fully offset the impacts of traditional economic adjustments [2][5][35] - The key to breaking deflation lies in stabilizing the real estate market, which is crucial for economic recovery in 2026 and 2027 [2][36][45] - Hong Kong's experience shows that when mortgage rates are lowered to levels close to rental yields, the real estate market stabilizes [2][50] Group 3 - The changes in policy, enterprises, and capital have led to a new atmosphere in China's capital market over the past year and a half [3][10] - The resilience of many enterprises amid challenges has been bolstered by positive developments in sectors like AI, smart vehicles, and biopharmaceuticals [2][18][19] - There has been a significant shift in capital dynamics, with domestic investors becoming more active and moving towards diversified equity assets [2][26][27] Group 4 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to balance development and security, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending and social security systems [2][54][58] - The plan proposes two core paths for promoting consumption: building a unified national market and increasing fiscal investment in social welfare [2][55][58] - The reform of the social security system is crucial for boosting consumer confidence and spending, with a target to increase the proportion of consumption in GDP from around 40% to 45% by 2030 [2][63][64] Group 5 - The gradual implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to lead to a deeper consensus and understanding by 2027, ultimately breaking the deflationary cycle [2][65][66] - The focus on technological self-reliance and innovation is seen as a key driver for attracting global investors back to the Chinese market [2][66]

Core Insights - The Chinese economy is undergoing a significant structural transformation, transitioning from an export-driven model to a more balanced focus on domestic demand [1] - The future of high-quality development should not solely rely on replacing old industries but rather on the collaboration of new and old driving forces [1] - A fundamental reform of the social security system is essential to unlock true domestic consumption potential [3] Group 1: Economic Transition - The transition period is characterized by a notable rise in China's position within the value chain, providing strong support for the economy [1] - Emerging industries, particularly in artificial intelligence and automotive sectors, are showing unexpected performance, with China becoming the largest producer and exporter of vehicles [1][2] - The shipbuilding industry secured 75% of global orders last year, and over 50% of robots globally are now produced in China [2] Group 2: Importance of Traditional Industries - There is a need to avoid the misconception that only new economies matter, as traditional sectors remain crucial for economic stability [2] - Real estate plays a vital role in household wealth, accounting for over 50% of many families' assets, which is significantly higher than the stock market [2] - The urbanization rate in China is approximately 68%, indicating substantial unmet demand in housing and transportation [2] Group 3: Consumer Spending and Policy - Consumer spending is seen as a key variable in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the government implementing substantial consumption policies [3] - Long-term reforms in the social security system are deemed more effective than short-term cash incentives for stimulating consumer spending [3] Group 4: Capital Market Development - The capital market is expected to play a more significant role in the national economy, with a focus on enhancing the financial weight of Chinese assets [4] - Key directions include promoting the internationalization of the RMB, nurturing truly global enterprises, and protecting investors to ensure healthy industrial development [4] - Achieving these goals will require patience and sustained efforts in the right direction [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite challenges in the external environment, China's economy is stabilizing due to changes in policy, enterprises, and capital, leading to a recovery in market confidence [1] - Since September of last year, a series of incremental policies have been effectively implemented, enhancing market participants' understanding of policies and boosting social confidence [1] - Enterprises are focusing on internal improvements, innovation, international expansion, and business diversification, resulting in positive news for various industries and a breakthrough in the recognition of Chinese companies' innovation capabilities [1] Group 2 - Global sovereign funds and pension funds are increasingly aware of the uncertainties in U.S. policies, leading to a diversification of investments and a growing allocation towards RMB assets [1] - Domestic asset confidence is recovering, with funds previously concentrated in the bond market and fixed deposits becoming more active and shifting towards equity assets and higher liquidity [1] - To further enhance market confidence, deepening reforms, particularly in the social security system, is deemed crucial, with a focus on improving basic pensions for urban and rural residents to stimulate domestic demand [2]

Employment Stability - The employment situation in China remains generally stable during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a total of 59.21 million new urban jobs created, exceeding the target of 55 million [2] - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.3% over the first four years, below the expected control target of 5.5% [2] - Employment support policies have been implemented, with over 470 billion yuan in employment subsidies and 138.9 billion yuan in stable job return funds disbursed [2] Social Security System Improvement - Significant reforms in the social security system have been made, including nationwide coordination of basic pension insurance and provincial-level coordination of unemployment and work injury insurance [3] - As of August, the number of participants in basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reached 1.072 billion, 246 million, and 302 million respectively [3] - The social security fund balance reached 9.81 trillion yuan, with central government subsidies for pension insurance exceeding 730 billion yuan in 2024 [3] Talent Development and Skills Training - The transition from demographic dividend to talent dividend is being promoted, with the introduction of 72 new occupations and 328 national occupational standards [4] - A large-scale vocational skills training program has been implemented, benefiting 92 million people, including over 42 million enterprise employees and over 31 million migrant workers [4] - More than 4.4 million individuals have obtained vocational skill certificates, with over 6,000 recognized as top-level technicians [4] Labor Rights Protection - The labor rights protection system is being enhanced, with over 10,000 major wage arrears cases addressed and more than 14,000 cases of refusal to pay wages transferred for prosecution [6] - New employment forms are receiving attention, with guidelines established to protect the rights of gig economy workers such as delivery personnel and ride-hailing drivers [6] - A one-stop mediation service for labor disputes has been set up, with over 2,300 mediation centers established nationwide [6]

Employment Situation - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the employment situation in China has remained generally stable, with a cumulative urban new employment of 59.21 million, exceeding the target of 55 million [1] - The average urban survey unemployment rate over the past four years is 5.3%, which is below the expected control target of 5.5% [1] Employment Support Policies - A series of employment support policies have been implemented, with total employment subsidy expenditures exceeding 470 billion yuan and stable job return funds amounting to 138.9 billion yuan [1] - A total of 72 new occupations have been released, and 328 national occupational standards have been issued, aimed at enhancing the vitality of various talents [1] Skills and Talent Development - Approximately 92 million people have received subsidized vocational skills training, contributing to a skilled workforce [1] - The number of professional technical personnel exceeds 80 million, with over 22 million skilled workers, including more than 72 million high-skilled talents [1] Social Security Reforms - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen the most significant reforms in the social security sector, including nationwide coordination of basic pension insurance for employees and provincial-level coordination for unemployment and work injury insurance [2] - The number of participants in basic pension insurance has reached 1.072 billion, an increase of over 73 million compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with the participation rate rising from 91% to over 95% [2] Labor Relations and Rights Protection - Mechanisms for labor relations consultation, supervision, and enforcement have been improved, with over 10,000 major wage arrears violations published and handled [2] - More than 14,000 cases of suspected refusal to pay labor remuneration have been transferred, effectively curbing malicious wage arrears behavior [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the profound impacts of China's declining population growth, characterized by low birth rates and aging demographics, on various sectors, particularly education, labor market, social security, and urban planning [3][4]. Education Sector - The decline in school-age population is leading to under-enrollment in schools and an oversupply of teachers, prompting discussions on the need for educational reform [3][4]. - The Ministry of Education emphasizes the need to adapt teacher resource allocation in response to demographic changes and urbanization [3]. - Opportunities for reform include transitioning teachers across educational stages and regions, improving school standards, and promoting smaller class sizes to enhance teaching quality [4][5]. Labor Market - The shrinking labor force is weakening traditional economic growth models, necessitating a shift from "demographic dividend" to "talent dividend" [5]. - There is a consensus on increasing investment in human capital throughout its lifecycle to improve overall labor quality and productivity [5]. - The development of the "silver economy" and the optimization of industrial structures towards knowledge and technology-intensive sectors are crucial for addressing labor shortages [5]. Social Security System - The aging population poses significant challenges to the social security system, particularly in healthcare funding and efficiency [5]. - Key reforms include enhancing the basic medical insurance system, improving funding mechanisms, and establishing long-term care insurance [5]. Urban and Regional Planning - Population changes are uneven across urban and rural areas, necessitating optimized land use and spatial planning [6]. - The article advocates for a coordinated regional development strategy, focusing on enhancing urban centers' capacity while addressing the needs of shrinking areas [6]. - Identifying risks and planning systematically can transform challenges into opportunities for high-quality development in the context of demographic shifts [6].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its **social security system**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Consumer Spending and Expectations**: The current consumer spending is heavily influenced by public expectations. Recent policy changes, such as a 20 RMB increase in pension benefits, amounting to approximately 6 billion RMB, have not significantly boosted consumer confidence or spending [1][2][3]. 2. **Social Security Spending**: Comparatively, China spends about 8% of its GDP on social security, which is lower than the OECD average of 25% and the 15-20% spent by similar developing countries. This indicates potential for increased social security investment in line with the goal of common prosperity [2][3]. 3. **Debt Utilization**: The sustainability of debt is contingent upon its application. If debt is used for social welfare, it can stimulate consumption and break the low-price cycle. Conversely, if used for unproductive capacity expansion, it may lead to bad debts and increased financial risk [3][5]. 4. **Local Government Debt**: Local government debt is reported to be around 70 trillion RMB, while central government debt is approximately 30 trillion RMB. This suggests a theoretical debt capacity of around 100 trillion RMB, indicating that there is still room for borrowing if used wisely [4][5]. 5. **Economic Transition**: The need for a shift from supply-side policies to demand-side policies is emphasized, particularly in light of changing demographics and global economic conditions. This includes enhancing social security for rural workers and flexible employment groups [9][10]. 6. **Global Economic Context**: The global economic outlook is bleak, with many institutions downgrading growth forecasts due to uncertainties stemming from U.S. policies. However, China is seen to have some policy flexibility to mitigate these impacts [11][12]. 7. **Technological Advancements**: There is a growing recognition of China's capabilities in technology and innovation, particularly in AI, renewable energy, and pharmaceuticals. This shift in perception could enhance China's position in the global economy [14][15]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Path Dependency Issues**: The historical reliance on supply-side policies has created a path dependency that may hinder the adoption of more effective demand-side strategies. This is compounded by local government incentives tied to GDP output rather than consumer welfare [7][8][9]. 2. **Consumer Confidence**: There is a need to improve consumer confidence to reduce precautionary savings, which is currently a barrier to increased consumption [6][10]. 3. **Policy Implementation**: The effectiveness of new policies aimed at enhancing social security and stimulating consumption will depend on their implementation and the public's perception of their benefits [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the substantial progress made in the high-level economic talks between China and the U.S., highlighting the potential for China to seize opportunities in the global economic landscape amidst ongoing trade disputes and structural changes in the economy [1][2]. Economic Resilience - The ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. are moving towards a more controllable state, which may alleviate the current trade standstill and positively impact GDP growth in the upcoming quarters [3]. - China has established a robust social and economic foundation to withstand external shocks, with significant room for policy stimulus to stabilize economic growth [4]. - The long-standing advantages of China's industrial chain clusters are expected to help maintain economic stability despite trade tensions [5]. Policy Collaboration and Domestic Demand - There is a need for China to enhance fiscal measures to boost domestic demand, as monetary policy alone may not suffice [6]. - Suggested measures include increasing fiscal deficits, reforming state-owned enterprises to support social security systems, and shifting fiscal spending from infrastructure to social welfare [7][8]. Strategic Opportunities - China aims to enhance the attractiveness of its assets and market competitiveness by implementing the "2030 Major Strategy," which includes increasing domestic demand by 30% and achieving zero tariffs, zero entry restrictions, and zero subsidy limitations for countries outside the U.S. by 2030 [9][10][13]. - The growth in domestic demand is projected to fill the global demand gap created by U.S. trade protectionism, thereby enhancing China's role in global trade and geopolitical stability [12]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that despite uncertainties in the U.S. economy and its tariff policies, China's proactive measures and potential reforms could position it favorably in the global economic landscape, making it crucial for China to capitalize on this strategic opportunity [14].