Export Performance - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 5.4% and up from the previous month's growth of 5.9%[5] - The export growth was supported by a low base effect from the previous year, where July 2024 exports were at their lowest level since 2001, with a month-on-month decline of 2.3%[6] - Exports to ASEAN countries accounted for 17% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 16%[12] Import Performance - Imports in July rose by 4.1% year-on-year, significantly surpassing market expectations of a 1.0% decline and marking the highest level since July of the previous year[22] - The increase in imports was primarily driven by machinery and high-tech products, with integrated circuit imports growing by approximately 13%[22] - Despite a continued decline in crude oil imports, the total value of crude oil imports saw a reduced year-on-year decline due to quantity recovery[22] Trade Balance - China's trade surplus in July was recorded at $98.24 billion, lower than the expected $105 billion and down from $114.75 billion in the previous month[5] - The trade balance reflects the ongoing challenges in the external trade environment, particularly with the U.S. market, where exports saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 22%[12] Market Outlook - The report indicates potential pressures on future export growth due to the uncertain trade environment and the impact of new U.S. tariffs[9] - The global manufacturing PMI for July was at 49.3, indicating a slight decline and suggesting a slowdown in global manufacturing recovery[9]

Export Performance - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 5.8% and the previous value of 5.9%[1] - Exports to the EU rose by 9.2%, up 1.7 percentage points from June, driven by improved manufacturing sentiment in the Eurozone[2] - Exports to ASEAN grew by 16.6%, contributing 2.6 percentage points to overall exports, with Vietnam seeing a 27.9% increase[3] Import Trends - July imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 1.1% and expectations of 0.3%[6] - Copper ore and chips saw significant import increases of 26.4% and 13.0% respectively, contributing 0.9 and 2.0 percentage points to import growth[6] - Energy imports remained a drag, with crude oil imports down 7.4% and coal imports down 47.8%[6] Future Outlook - The potential for a decline in exports is heightened due to increased U.S. tariffs, with the average tariff rate rising to 17.2% and a new 40% transit tariff impacting re-export trade[2] - Despite potential declines, strong demand from Europe and emerging markets is expected to provide support for exports to the EU, Africa, and the Middle East[2] - The policy focus for the second half of the year is expected to shift towards implementation rather than strong stimulus measures[1]

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 上半年出口无虞 ——5 月外贸数据点评 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 黄帅 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月整体出口表现并不弱，主要缘于对东盟、欧盟出口仍有韧性。中美经贸关系缓和带动的对 美抢出口效应，预计会从 6 月初开始逐渐显现。进料加工贸易同比增速领先出口同比增速约 1 个月，5 月进料加工贸易同比增速仅小幅回落，预计 6 月整体出口仍能维持韧性增长。年内来 看，上半年出口无虞，下半年出口更多将取决于美国和各国贸易谈判最终结果。预计 6 月中下 旬美国或陆续公布与各国谈判决议。 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title 上半年出口无虞2] ——5 月外贸数据点评 %% %% [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 6 月 9 日，海关总署发布 5 月外贸数据：以美元计，我国 5 月出口 3161 亿美元，进 口 2128.8 亿美元，贸易顺差为 1032.2 亿美元。 风险提示 美国关税政策不确 ...