资料图片 从"估值修复"转向"盈利驱动" 综合各家观点，公募基金对2026年A股的大势判断为：一场在盈利接棒驱动下的、波动可能加大的"慢 牛"或"震荡上行"行情。 公募机构普遍对2026年A股市场持乐观态度，核心共识在于A股市场驱动力将从2025年的"估值修复"过 渡到"盈利驱动"，整体有望呈现震荡上行、中枢缓步抬升的格局。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙明确提出，市场有望从估值抬升的"急而促"行情，过渡到盈利支撑的 "缓而慢" 的慢牛、长牛行情。富国基金也认为行情将从"结构牛"走向更健康的"全面牛"。 21世纪经济报道特约记者 庞华玮 2026年的第一个交易日，市场的目光已投向未来。2026年A股将如何 演绎？投资者又应如何布局？ 近日，包括景顺长城、广发、招商等在内的十余家头部公募基金相继发布了年度展望。为2026年A股市 场描绘出一幅"盈利驱动、科技主导、风格均衡"的投资路线图。 综合来看，公募机构普遍对2026年A股市场持乐观态度，认为市场核心驱动力将从2025年的"估值修 复"逐步过渡至2026年的"盈利驱动"，整体有望呈现震荡上行、中枢抬升的格局。 其中，科技成长仍是确定性最高的主线，同时市场风格 ...

Market Overview - The total trading volume in 2025 exceeded 420 trillion yuan, averaging over 17 trillion yuan daily, indicating a highly active market [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.41% throughout the year, with six instances of surpassing the 4000-point mark, closing at 3968.84 points [1] - The ChiNext Index surged by 49.57%, reflecting a strong growth in the technology sector [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a remarkable increase of 94.73%, followed by the telecommunications sector with an 84.75% rise [1] - Other sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery also saw gains exceeding 40% [1] - Conversely, the food and beverage sector declined by 9.69%, and the coal sector fell by 5.27% [1] Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning from a reliance on financial and real estate sectors to a focus on technology and high-end manufacturing, driven by a "technology revolution" and "resource revaluation" [1] - The driving forces behind the market include the AI industry chain explosion, improved corporate earnings, and stable investments from state-owned funds and insurance companies [1] 2026 Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend in 2026, with a shift in focus from "expectations" and "valuations" to "performance" and "profitability" [2] - A projected earnings growth rate for all A-share listed companies is anticipated to rebound to 5%-8% [2] - Key drivers for this growth include a potential global manufacturing cycle recovery and the maturation of emerging industries like AI and commercial aerospace [2] Valuation and Funding - The overall market valuation is around 22 times earnings, which is not considered cheap but is not viewed as a bubble in the context of historical and economic transformation [3] - Continuous inflow of funds is expected as residents shift investments from real estate and savings to the stock market, supported by significant insurance fund allocation and ETF purchases [3] Investment Strategy for 2026 - The market is expected to experience distinct phases throughout 2026, with a focus on technology growth sectors like AI and semiconductors in Q1, followed by performance verification in Q2 [4] - Q3 may see a balanced market style, with stable performance in consumer sectors, while Q4 will likely focus on high dividend stocks and stable earnings [4] Sector Opportunities - Structural opportunities exist in the consumer sector, particularly in essential consumption, which remains stable and offers high dividends [5] - The performance of discretionary consumption sectors will largely depend on supportive policies for real estate [5] Key Investment Themes - The primary investment themes for 2026 include: 1. Technology-driven opportunities, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace [6] 2. High-end manufacturing with a focus on robotics and global expansion [6] 3. Cyclical sectors benefiting from new demand, such as industrial metals and chemicals [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese stock market, focusing on the Shanghai Composite Index, the ChiNext Index, and various sectors including brokerage, consumer, and technology industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Structure and Trends** - The Shanghai Composite Index is maintaining a five-wave structure, with potential upward movement towards 4,100 points as long as it does not fall below the trend line around 3,950 points [1][12] - The ChiNext Index is experiencing a wide range of fluctuations and has broken below the 5-week moving average, indicating a possible weekly level consolidation [1][8] 2. **Brokerage Sector Outlook** - The brokerage sector is currently undervalued and has shown signs of recovery since mid-September, with increasing bullish trends [4][15] - There is a significant potential for upward movement, and holding brokerage stocks is considered a reasonable choice in a bullish market [15] 3. **Consumer Sector Performance** - The consumer sector has shown strong performance despite a lack of significant improvement in the fundamental aspects [10] - Several consumer-related industries have seen notable gains, indicating that these stocks are nearing their bottom [10] 4. **Technology Sector Decline** - The technology sector, particularly the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) segment, has experienced a downturn, attributed to year-end settlement demands and new public fund regulations [11] - Despite some segments like the lithium battery industry performing well, the overall trend in technology stocks is negative [11] 5. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** - Investors are advised to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, media, light chemicals, mining, and steel, which are expected to rebound [20] - A balanced investment approach is recommended for 2026, with an emphasis on selecting appropriate benchmarks based on product characteristics [18][21] 6. **Future Market Predictions** - The market is expected to continue a wide-ranging fluctuation pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index having upward potential while the ChiNext Index adjusts based on the main board's performance [6][12] - The brokerage sector is seen as a key driver for the index, and its performance will be crucial for market direction [15] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment** - The current market sentiment is described as "half-drunk, half-awake," with investors feeling confused due to the contrasting performances of weight stocks and innovative stocks [2] 2. **Historical Context for ChiNext** - Historical data suggests that significant consolidation periods are necessary for the ChiNext Index to break out of its current range, similar to patterns observed in 2020 [13] 3. **Investment Style Trends** - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a year of balanced investment styles, with a focus on stable benchmarks like the CSI 800 and CSI 500 [19][21] - Small-cap stocks and industry-balanced strategies are currently outperforming, with a notable interest in consumer services and chemicals [22][24] 4. **Sector-Specific Opportunities** - Specific sectors such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals, aviation, and home appliances are highlighted as having early momentum signals worth monitoring [23]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the Chinese stock market, particularly focusing on the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext, and the STAR Market [1][2][3][4][12][13]. Key Points and Arguments Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index is showing strong support around 3,936 points, which is a critical level for bulls. If this level is effectively broken, it could signal a potential market downturn [1][2][3][4][9]. - The index has attempted to break the 4,000-point mark for two consecutive weeks, but investor sentiment remains muted, leading to uncertainty about market direction [2][17]. - The index is currently in a five-wave structure, indicating potential for further upward movement if it maintains above the support level [1][9]. ChiNext and STAR Market - The ChiNext and STAR Market indices are experiencing weakness, with the ChiNext showing a downward adjustment since April 7, 2023, and confirming an A, B, C adjustment structure [1][2][6][11]. - The STAR Market is also in a similar adjustment phase, but the strength of the main board provides some protection [6][11]. Broker Index - The broker index has remained flat with limited directional movement, facing challenges both upward and downward. A breakout could lead to significant gains, but currently lacks clear direction [5][16]. Sector Performance - Recent market trends indicate a shift from technology stocks to cyclical and dividend-paying stocks, with sectors like steel, basic chemicals, and construction materials performing well [1][12][24]. - The steel sector has shown notable gains, with a 4.57% increase recently, while technology stocks have generally declined [12][24]. Market Conditions - The overall market remains in a state of fluctuation without significant changes in fundamentals. The protective line for the Shanghai Composite has been adjusted from 3,910 to 3,930 points [13][17]. - Investors are advised to adopt a structural adjustment strategy due to the current market uncertainty [17][23]. Additional Important Insights - The market is expected to experience a year of balanced investment styles, with a focus on selecting appropriate performance benchmarks for funds [19][22]. - The importance of maintaining a balanced investment strategy is emphasized, particularly in light of the current market volatility [20][23]. - The potential for significant price increases in the chemical industry is noted, with 2026 being highlighted as a pivotal year for this sector [24][28]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors such as brokers, steel, chemicals, and consumer goods, which are expected to perform well in the fourth quarter [18][24]. - Consideration of ETFs like the CSI 300 ETF or the Shanghai ETF is recommended to outperform benchmark indices [18]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and investment strategies.

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Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic equity market continues to rise, with various fund indices achieving positive returns, particularly in the healthcare sector, which saw the highest net value increase among thematic funds [3] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of 20.817 billion yuan, while Hong Kong stock ETFs saw a significant inflow of 7.821 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Financial Data Insights - In June, the expected increase in RMB loans is projected to be between 2.3 to 2.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 200 to 400 billion yuan [4] - Social financing is expected to remain stable, supported by steady credit and government bond issuance, leading to an anticipated increase in social financing growth rate [4] Group 3: Industry Developments - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to strengthen market mechanisms to eliminate inefficient production capacity and prevent "involution" in competition, which may optimize the photovoltaic materials industry [5] - The National Medical Products Administration announced measures to support the innovation and commercialization of high-end medical devices, which is expected to benefit leading companies with strong R&D capabilities and international strategies [6] Group 4: Company Performance - China Hongqiao is expected to see a 35% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reaching approximately 12.36 billion yuan, supported by lower costs and stable aluminum prices [6] - Yanjing Beer anticipates a net profit of 1.062 to 1.137 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% to 50%, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [6]