Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced an overall adjustment, with the Hang Seng Technology Index leading the decline, down 2.82% to 5812.8 [2][5] - The total market turnover reached HKD 232.79 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 12.887 billion [5] - Concerns over global semiconductor demand recovery were heightened due to disappointing earnings from a Japanese storage giant, negatively impacting the hard technology sector [5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.85% to 26572.46, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 2.09% to 9397.96 [2] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index declined by 0.97%, and the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.57% [2] - Among the sectors, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+1.03%) and Computer (+0.03%) were the top gainers, while Retail (-3.88%) and Non-ferrous Metals (-3.56%) were the biggest losers [2] Sector Analysis - The hard technology sector, including semiconductors and hardware, faced downward pressure due to concerns about the recovery of storage chip demand following poor earnings reports [5] - Conversely, the daily consumer retail sector saw a rise driven by strong earnings reports from major weighted stocks, boosting investor confidence [5] Future Outlook - Potential growth areas for the Hong Kong stock market include AI technology and new consumption trends, which are expected to drive market increases [5] - Continuous inflow of southbound funds is anticipated to enhance marginal pricing power in the Hong Kong market [5] - The transition from loose monetary policy to loose credit in China, along with potential further interest rate cuts in the U.S., could support the Hong Kong market's upward trajectory [5]

Key Insights - The report highlights the expectation of a recovery in various asset valuations driven by the rapid increase in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and the positive sentiment surrounding AI technology [2][3] - The introduction of policies to expand service consumption is expected to create development opportunities in the service sector, particularly in areas such as chain services, entertainment, tourism, and elderly care [3] - The aviation sector is experiencing stable growth in supply and demand during the peak summer season, with an increase in passenger load factors, although ticket prices remain low [4] - Tesla's stock is supported by significant share purchases by Elon Musk, indicating confidence in the company's long-term prospects, alongside multiple catalysts expected to be released in September [5] Fixed Income - The report discusses the implications of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could lower financing costs and improve macroeconomic growth expectations, benefiting emerging market stocks and commodities [2] Consumer Discretionary/Social Services - The report outlines five key areas and 19 measures aimed at enhancing service consumption, indicating a long-term growth potential for China's service sector, which currently lags behind developed countries in terms of GDP contribution [3] Transportation - The report notes that while domestic airline ticket prices have decreased by 6.5% year-on-year during the peak summer season, there is an expectation for a rebound in business travel demand in September, which may lead to improved pricing [4] Key Company - Tesla's recent stock purchase by Elon Musk, valued at approximately $1 billion, reflects his confidence in the company's future, with expectations for advancements in AI capabilities and product launches in the coming years [5]

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, noting marginal improvements in external risks but persistent overall pressure [1] - Short-term signals indicate a phase of easing tariffs between the US and China, with ongoing negotiations that may still have many variables [1][2] - The report highlights the need for incremental capital and policy stimulus for a rebound in the Hong Kong market, with current inflows primarily from the southbound channel [1][2] Group 2 - The report expresses a favorable outlook on AI technology and domestic consumption, suggesting a portion of high-dividend stocks for defensive positioning [2] - AI technology is emphasized due to strong performance in the US tech sector, which boosts global tech narratives, and the launch of a "Tech Enterprise Line" by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - Domestic consumption remains a key theme for the year, supported by government initiatives to expand consumption and enhance its role in economic growth [2] Group 3 - The report lists a selection of recommended stocks, including Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, XPeng Motors, and others, with detailed financial metrics such as market capitalization and earnings per share [3][10][13][18][30][34][39][44][51][57] - Tencent Holdings is noted for its strong competitive advantages across multiple business areas and its accelerated AI commercialization process [10] - Alibaba is recognized for its leading position in AI large models and cloud computing, with significant growth expected in its cloud business driven by AI demand [13] Group 4 - XPeng Motors is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues of 99 billion, 168 billion, and 249 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [18] - Horizon Robotics is highlighted for its advanced driving solutions and significant market share growth in the high-level autonomous driving sector [24][25] - Anta Sports is expanding its brand portfolio through acquisitions, which is expected to enhance overall competitiveness and performance [30] Group 5 - Miniso is positioned as a leading global IP retail brand, benefiting from industry growth and international expansion, with a strong focus on self-owned brands [34] - The report anticipates steady growth for the beverage company Mixue, driven by its end-to-end supply chain and brand marketing strategies [39] - Yuehai Investment is focusing on its core water supply business, with significant cash flow improvements expected following the divestment of non-core assets [44] Group 6 - New Energy is expected to see a return to valuation levels due to privatization efforts, with a projected valuation increase of 30% [51] - Innovent Biologics is forecasted to maintain revenue growth driven by its expanding product pipeline and effective cost management [57]

市场风高浪急，交易要逆水行舟。 文 丨 陈晶 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 王姗姗 70 后的洪灏留长发、戴圆眼镜、常系一条红色领带，配合总是生无可恋的表情，风格自成一派。 经 历了过去一周全球资本市场的风云突变，他对接下来中国资产的价格走势判断继续保持谨慎乐观。 4 月 2 日特朗普对外宣布美国新的关税政策并定于 4 月 9 日全面生效，数十年的全球贸易链条被斩 断、世界性经济衰退的警报被拉响，将资本市场推入数十年不遇的恐慌。美股经历多日暴跌，市场最 高蒸发超 6.5 万亿美元。 对此，现任华福国际（香港）金融控股有限公司 CEO 的洪灏已数次提醒投资者，面对当下无序的暴 跌需稍安勿躁，不要轻易尝试参与任何的美股反弹。 本周，不确定性仍在进一步加剧。 4 月 7 日，中国对美国表态坚决反制后的第一个交易日，A 股和港 股经历了 "黑色星期一" 的冲击——全市场收盘跌停个股逾 2900 只，A 股总市值一天蒸发 7.6 万亿 元，港股则遭遇其历史上第二大单日暴跌。4 月 8 日，美国报复性宣布对中国输美商品征收 "对等关 税" 的税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。随后在 4 月 9 日，中国政府回击，反制进一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in global capital markets, particularly focusing on the impact of new U.S. tariffs on China and the subsequent market reactions. The CEO of Huafu International, Hong Hao, maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on Chinese assets despite the turmoil, emphasizing the need for patience and a long-term perspective in investing [3][4][10]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs, the U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with over $6.5 trillion in market value evaporating [3]. - On April 7, the Chinese stock market faced a severe downturn, with over 2,900 stocks hitting the daily limit down, resulting in a total market value loss of 7.6 trillion yuan [4]. Tariff Implications - The U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese goods from 34% to 84%, prompting a reciprocal response from China [4]. - Hong Hao criticizes the U.S. approach to trade deficits and tariffs, arguing that the U.S. economy may be more vulnerable than China's in the face of escalating tariffs [9][10]. Market Conditions and Predictions - Hong Hao believes that the fundamental conditions for a long-term rise in the Chinese stock market remain intact, provided that the economic fundamentals do not deteriorate further [4][12]. - He suggests that the current market environment is characterized by a valuation repair rather than a fundamental reassessment, indicating that the market's recovery may be driven by liquidity rather than genuine economic improvement [8][12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious and not to chase short-term rebounds in the market, as the long-term upward trend requires stable economic fundamentals [10][11]. - Hong Hao emphasizes the importance of making investment decisions based on market sentiment and conditions rather than solely on valuation metrics [10][11]. Economic Outlook - The article highlights the need for China to establish a clear economic strategy to replace reliance on the real estate sector and to communicate this effectively to the market [13]. - Hong Hao points out that the demand for housing in China remains sustainable, with significant annual housing needs projected [14]. AI and Technology Sector - The article discusses the current hype around AI technology, cautioning against over-optimism regarding its immediate profitability and sustainability in the market [18][19]. - Hong Hao notes that while there is enthusiasm for AI, the path to profitability is complex and not guaranteed, suggesting a need for a more cautious approach to investment in this sector [18][19].