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华泰证券今日早参-20250917
HTSC· 2025-09-17 06:02
Key Insights - The report highlights the expectation of a recovery in various asset valuations driven by the rapid increase in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and the positive sentiment surrounding AI technology [2][3] - The introduction of policies to expand service consumption is expected to create development opportunities in the service sector, particularly in areas such as chain services, entertainment, tourism, and elderly care [3] - The aviation sector is experiencing stable growth in supply and demand during the peak summer season, with an increase in passenger load factors, although ticket prices remain low [4] - Tesla's stock is supported by significant share purchases by Elon Musk, indicating confidence in the company's long-term prospects, alongside multiple catalysts expected to be released in September [5] Fixed Income - The report discusses the implications of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could lower financing costs and improve macroeconomic growth expectations, benefiting emerging market stocks and commodities [2] Consumer Discretionary/Social Services - The report outlines five key areas and 19 measures aimed at enhancing service consumption, indicating a long-term growth potential for China's service sector, which currently lags behind developed countries in terms of GDP contribution [3] Transportation - The report notes that while domestic airline ticket prices have decreased by 6.5% year-on-year during the peak summer season, there is an expectation for a rebound in business travel demand in September, which may lead to improved pricing [4] Key Company - Tesla's recent stock purchase by Elon Musk, valued at approximately $1 billion, reflects his confidence in the company's future, with expectations for advancements in AI capabilities and product launches in the coming years [5]
5月港股金股:关税阴霾渐退
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-08 03:34
证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20250508 5 月港股金股:关税阴霾渐退 2025 年 05 月 08 日 [观点Table_Tag] 3、港股反弹还需增量资金和政策刺激。当前增量资金主要以南向为主,香 港本地资金和海外资金还有增配空间。此外,尽管 5 月 2 日,美元兑港币 汇率触及 7.75 强方兑换保证,仍需继续观察外资流入情况。 ◼ 我们相对看好 AI 科技、内需,同时建议配置部分高股息用作防御: 1、看好 AI 科技:一是,美股科技业绩部分亮眼,一定程度上对全球科技 叙事有所提振;二是,业绩进入真空期,业绩干扰减少,利好主题行情, AI 科技东升仍是重点;三是,港交所和香港证监会推出"科企专线",进 一步利好科创风偏。 2、考虑配置部分高股息:一是,整体海外风险还在,如果美股科技大跌可 能传导至港股科技;二是,二季度部分港股可能提前派息潮。为避免下半 年可能的在岸人民币压力,部分企业可能提前支付股息。三是,近期港币 流动性有宽松信号,若资金成本继续下降,进一步利好高股息。 3、内需消费仍是全年主线。4 月底政治局会议,明确表示要扩大消费,大 力发展服务消费,增强消费对经济拉 ...
对话经济学家洪灏:股市短期会反弹,长期上涨所需基本面未变
晚点LatePost· 2025-04-09 15:09
市场风高浪急,交易要逆水行舟。 文 丨 陈晶 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 王姗姗 70 后的洪灏留长发、戴圆眼镜、常系一条红色领带,配合总是生无可恋的表情,风格自成一派。 经 历了过去一周全球资本市场的风云突变,他对接下来中国资产的价格走势判断继续保持谨慎乐观。 4 月 2 日特朗普对外宣布美国新的关税政策并定于 4 月 9 日全面生效,数十年的全球贸易链条被斩 断、世界性经济衰退的警报被拉响,将资本市场推入数十年不遇的恐慌。美股经历多日暴跌,市场最 高蒸发超 6.5 万亿美元。 对此,现任华福国际(香港)金融控股有限公司 CEO 的洪灏已数次提醒投资者,面对当下无序的暴 跌需稍安勿躁,不要轻易尝试参与任何的美股反弹。 本周,不确定性仍在进一步加剧。 4 月 7 日,中国对美国表态坚决反制后的第一个交易日,A 股和港 股经历了 "黑色星期一" 的冲击——全市场收盘跌停个股逾 2900 只,A 股总市值一天蒸发 7.6 万亿 元,港股则遭遇其历史上第二大单日暴跌。4 月 8 日,美国报复性宣布对中国输美商品征收 "对等关 税" 的税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。随后在 4 月 9 日,中国政府回击,反制进一 ...
经济学家洪灏:股市短期会反弹,长期上涨所需基本面未变
晚点LatePost· 2025-04-09 15:09
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in global capital markets, particularly focusing on the impact of new U.S. tariffs on China and the subsequent market reactions. The CEO of Huafu International, Hong Hao, maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on Chinese assets despite the turmoil, emphasizing the need for patience and a long-term perspective in investing [3][4][10]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs, the U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with over $6.5 trillion in market value evaporating [3]. - On April 7, the Chinese stock market faced a severe downturn, with over 2,900 stocks hitting the daily limit down, resulting in a total market value loss of 7.6 trillion yuan [4]. Tariff Implications - The U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese goods from 34% to 84%, prompting a reciprocal response from China [4]. - Hong Hao criticizes the U.S. approach to trade deficits and tariffs, arguing that the U.S. economy may be more vulnerable than China's in the face of escalating tariffs [9][10]. Market Conditions and Predictions - Hong Hao believes that the fundamental conditions for a long-term rise in the Chinese stock market remain intact, provided that the economic fundamentals do not deteriorate further [4][12]. - He suggests that the current market environment is characterized by a valuation repair rather than a fundamental reassessment, indicating that the market's recovery may be driven by liquidity rather than genuine economic improvement [8][12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious and not to chase short-term rebounds in the market, as the long-term upward trend requires stable economic fundamentals [10][11]. - Hong Hao emphasizes the importance of making investment decisions based on market sentiment and conditions rather than solely on valuation metrics [10][11]. Economic Outlook - The article highlights the need for China to establish a clear economic strategy to replace reliance on the real estate sector and to communicate this effectively to the market [13]. - Hong Hao points out that the demand for housing in China remains sustainable, with significant annual housing needs projected [14]. AI and Technology Sector - The article discusses the current hype around AI technology, cautioning against over-optimism regarding its immediate profitability and sustainability in the market [18][19]. - Hong Hao notes that while there is enthusiasm for AI, the path to profitability is complex and not guaranteed, suggesting a need for a more cautious approach to investment in this sector [18][19].