Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is expected to challenge new lows, with a target set for the low point of September 30, 2024 [1][5] - A-shares are showing a strong upward trend, particularly in the North Star 50 index, which is anticipated to lead the market [2][5] - The commodity market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with a focus on long positions [3][5] Group 2: Sector Performance - The chemical, agriculture, steel, and photovoltaic sectors are at historical lows, providing a higher margin of safety for investors [2] - Semiconductor and optical module sectors have reached their adjustment space, and holding positions is recommended for potential gains [2] - The innovative drug sector has shown resilience after a recent drop, indicating a buying opportunity for high-growth stocks [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market shows signs of slowing, with August non-farm payroll data indicating a softening, which supports a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. economy remains robust, with second-quarter GDP growth revised upward and corporate profits continuing an upward trend since 2021 [2] - China's social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, indicating strong liquidity in the market [4]

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market shows narrow fluctuations with a slight increase, but the risk of further declines remains high after short-term stabilization [17] - The stock market is experiencing a "shrinking circle" phenomenon, with large-cap indices outperforming small-cap indices, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite [19] - The A-share market's long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by recent policy shifts towards increased fiscal spending targeting residents [19][6] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market saw a trading volume of 2.83 trillion, down nearly 170 billion from the previous trading day, with around 3,200 stocks declining [19] - The market is characterized by increased volatility, suggesting that buying on dips is a better strategy than chasing highs [19] - Recent policies indicate a shift from investment-driven growth to consumer-driven growth, which is expected to support economic recovery [19] Group 3: U.S. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.53%, Dow Jones up 0.16%, and S&P 500 up 0.32%, driven by improved GDP and employment data [25] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.3%, with business investment growth significantly revised from 1.9% to 5.7% [25][40] - The dovish tone from the Federal Reserve Chairman at the Jackson Hole meeting opens the door for potential rate cuts, which may boost market risk appetite [25] Group 4: Currency Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1299, down 86 basis points from the previous close, indicating a potential rebound in the dollar [29] - The outlook for the dollar is expected to be weak in the short term, but the cost-effectiveness of shorting the dollar is considered low [30] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.16%, with construction materials and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while oilseeds and ferroalloys lagged [34] - The current pricing of domestic commodities remains at historical lows, suggesting that shorting commodities lacks cost-effectiveness [34] Group 6: Important Policies and News - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, state-owned enterprises' total profits were 24,786.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [37] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to avoid disorderly competition in the development of "Artificial Intelligence+" [39]

火热的市场总是撩动人心，也折磨人心。尊重市场的人会立刻投身洪流，这是一种交易的品格；而更多的人总想鉴往知来，等待确认，感受FOMO的挑 逗。等待在很多时候是有益的，但需要注意：历史未必会因为走得远了而更加清晰，比如我们站在今天回溯一切的开始，6月23～25日那三根"改变信 仰"的阳线，我们仍然很难确切地回答"为什么"。 于是最近，我听到很多人说，这轮牛市没有"基本面基础"，更多是"流动性牛市"。我想不尽然如此。从去年底的《收之桑榆》我们就讲，宏观的大风险在 下降、财政的发力，货币的发力，一定会造成不一样的局面，这是基本面不容忽视的改变。 而人们最近对"股票和基本面没有关系"的朴素感受，可能来自一种择时上的错位：这一轮股市的加速，没有发生在宏观上最顺风的"两会后-对等关税 前"，也没有发生在"中美谈判+抢出口延续+数据更好"的窗口期里，偏偏是在6月，当宏观数据的脉冲出现拐头向下的时刻。 或许，我们能够从外部找到一些答案：A股的起点，可算作全球"Goldilocks交易"的一部分，始于美国轰炸伊朗核设施后的那个周一。而随着行情的演进， A股开始展现出基于自身叙事的正反馈，比如风险溢价修复、存款搬家和长线资金进入、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The March 2025 non-farm payroll data in the U.S. exceeded expectations, with healthcare services and leisure hospitality being the main contributors. The slight increase in the unemployment rate is primarily due to a rise in labor force participation, indicating a healthy job market overall, although there are signs of marginal weakening [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Employment Data - In March 2025, the U.S. added 228,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 140,000 and the revised previous value of 117,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, slightly above the expected 4.1% and the previous 4.1%. Year-on-year wage growth was 3.8%, below expectations and the previous value of 4%, while month-on-month growth was 0.3%, consistent with expectations and higher than the revised previous value of 0.2% [2][3]. Sector Contributions - The private sector added 209,000 jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 135,000 and the revised previous value of 116,000. Job gains were seen across various sectors, with the goods-producing sector adding 12,000 jobs and the service sector adding 197,000 jobs. Notably, education and healthcare services contributed 77,800 jobs, while leisure and hospitality added 43,000 jobs [3][4]. Labor Force Participation - The labor force participation rate in March was 62.5%, higher than the previous and expected values of 62.4%. The slight increase in the unemployment rate was attributed to this rise in participation, with the unemployment rate moving from 4.139% in February to 4.152% in March [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The March employment data did not raise concerns for the Federal Reserve, which prioritized inflation risks over economic growth pressures. Powell's statements indicated no intention for risk management-style rate cuts similar to those in 2019, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid rising inflation concerns [6][7]. Market Implications - The significant increase in non-farm payrolls and the slight rise in unemployment are viewed as a "calm before the storm" regarding tariff impacts. The market consensus suggests that the current employment data may not provide sufficient safety margins due to the unexpected breadth and depth of Trump's tariff increases, which could lead to economic adjustments [7][8]. Future Outlook - In the absence of a "Trump Put," market sentiment is expected to remain subdued, continuing to adjust in a "stagflation-like environment." The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation risks may hinder any immediate easing measures, despite favorable employment data [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's current stance under Powell, characterized as "duck-like," indicating a lack of decisive action while trying to appease both the market and the White House amidst rising economic uncertainties [1][10]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Position - Powell's approach reflects a compromise between being overly aggressive and overly passive, indicating that the Fed is not clear on the economic situation, leading to a lack of coherent monetary policy [1][10]. - The March FOMC meeting showed a degree of independence, with the Fed not overly concerned about soft data and emphasizing the importance of addressing inflation [3][10]. Market Reactions and Economic Policies - The Fed's unexpected slowdown in balance sheet reduction and its temporary judgment on tariff impacts suggest a commitment to a "Fed Put," although this commitment is not strong due to political constraints [4][5][10]. - Powell's reluctance to directly address the negative impacts of Trump's policies indicates a cautious approach, with the Fed needing to see greater chaos to justify more aggressive actions [5][11]. Economic Uncertainty - The article highlights that the current policy mix serves as a short-term reassurance for the market and a friendly response to Trump, with tariffs viewed as a one-time shock that does not require significant monetary policy adjustments [10]. - The uncertainty surrounding economic policies is expected to increase, with the Fed likely to lag in its responses to economic data, which may force it to act more decisively in future meetings [11].