内容来源｜部分摘自中信出版社图书书籍《M型社会》 近日，日本政府批准了一项规模达21.3万亿日元的全面经济刺激方案，成为疫情以来规模最大的经济干预。 然而，这一剂强心针并未能扭转经济颓势。2025年第三季度，日本实际国内生产总值按年率计算下降1.8%，是自2024年第一季度以来再次出现负增 长。 更令人担忧的是，普通民众所承受的双重挤压。截至2025年10月，日本通胀指标已连续43个月超过央行设定的2%目标，而实际工资水平却持续下滑 逾两年。物价攀升与购买力下降并存，民众的购买力不升反降。 在这些经济指标背后，潜藏着一个更深刻的结构性变化——日本中产阶级的持续崩溃与"M型社会"的不断深化。曾经支撑日本社会的"一亿总中流"格 局正在瓦解，取而代之的是贫富两极分化的社会结构。 01 中产的崩塌 日本经济正呈现出一副撕裂的图景。 一方面，股市表现强劲，日经指数一度突破50000点大关；另一方面，普通国民的生活感受，却与资本市场繁荣完全脱节。 更严峻的是，日本已背负沉重的债务负担。国际货币基金组织预测，2025年，日本政府债务总额预计将达到其经济总量的248.7%，多位专家指出，日 本财政扩张的空间已经几乎耗尽。 要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural economic challenges facing Japan, particularly under the leadership of Prime Minister Sanna Takashi, highlighting the dual pressures of external and internal demand leading to economic recession and increasing wealth disparity in society [1][2][4]. Economic Growth and Recession - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [1]. - External demand has been negatively impacted by U.S. tariffs, resulting in four consecutive months of declining exports [2]. - Private consumption, which constitutes over half of Japan's economy, slowed significantly from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.1% in Q3 due to rising living costs and stagnant real wages [2]. Inflation and Wage Stagnation - The core consumer price index in Tokyo rose by 2.8% year-on-year in October, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target [2]. - Real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 1.4% in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline [3]. M-shaped Society and Wealth Disparity - The article describes Japan's wealth distribution as an "M-shaped society," where the average savings of single individuals in their 20s, 30s, and 50s are significantly higher than the median savings, indicating severe wealth inequality [4][5]. - The disparity in wealth distribution is leading to a collapse of the middle class, as noted by management expert Kenichi Ohmae [5]. Intergenerational Poverty and Low Birth Rates - The M-shaped society is perpetuating intergenerational poverty, as low-income families struggle to provide quality education for their children, leading to a cycle of poverty [7]. - High-educated individuals are opting not to have children due to financial constraints, further exacerbating the low birth rate issue, which negatively impacts domestic demand [8]. Political Response and Limitations - Prime Minister Takashi's approach of "responsible active fiscal policy" aims to restore Abenomics and temporarily freeze fiscal surplus targets, but it risks exacerbating wealth inequality by primarily benefiting high-income earners and large corporations [10][11]. - The article critiques the government's failure to recognize the fundamental structural changes in society, suggesting that without addressing these issues, any policy measures may be ineffective [12].

Economic Context - Japan's economy is facing significant challenges, with the latest data showing a 1.8% decline in real GDP for Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [1] - The decline is attributed to both external and internal pressures, including a four-month contraction in exports due to U.S. tariffs and a slowdown in private consumption growth from 0.4% to 0.1% [1] - Rising living costs have led to stagnant real wages, causing households to cut discretionary spending [1] Inflation and Wages - Tokyo's core consumer price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in October, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target [2] - The price of rice has surged dramatically, with a 5 kg bag increasing from over 3,000 yen to 5,000 yen within a year [2] - Real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 1.4% in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline [2] Social Structure and Inequality - Japan is experiencing a pronounced wealth gap, with average savings for single individuals in their 20s, 30s, and 50s being 1.76 million, 4.94 million, and 10.48 million yen, respectively, while the median savings are significantly lower at 200,000, 750,000, and 530,000 yen [3] - This disparity illustrates the severe reality of wealth inequality in Japan, characterized as an "M-shaped society" where wealth distribution is polarized [4] Policy Responses and Critiques - The new Prime Minister, Sanna Takashi, is attempting to address these structural issues through "responsible active fiscal policy," which resembles the previous Abenomics approach, including quantitative easing and a temporary freeze on fiscal surplus targets [8] - Critics argue that such policies may exacerbate wealth inequality, primarily benefiting high-income earners and large corporations, while failing to address the root causes of economic stagnation [9] - The government's historical missteps in recognizing and addressing the long-term recession have led to a massive public debt of 1,000 trillion yen, which the populace ultimately bears the burden of [5] Societal Implications - The entrenched M-shaped society is leading to deeper social issues, including intergenerational poverty and a declining birth rate, as young people face economic pressures that discourage family formation [6][7] - The cycle of low wages and economic stagnation has created a "failed generation" among educated youth, who may opt out of the workforce or family life due to lack of financial security [6][7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of the "middle class," highlighting its ambiguous definition and the various criteria used to categorize it, such as income, assets, and social status [6][7][8] - It notes that the perception of being middle class often exceeds objective standards during economic upturns and declines during downturns, with historical examples from Japan and South Korea illustrating this phenomenon [7][8][11] - The article emphasizes the increasing financial strain on the middle class, with reports indicating a decline in their share of national income and a growing disparity within the class itself [8][11] Group 2 - The article identifies economic growth and industrial development as key factors influencing the stability and anxiety of the middle class, with historical context provided on the rise and fall of middle-class jobs in the U.S. [13][15][16] - It discusses the emergence of a "dual labor market," where high-quality jobs are contrasted with low-quality, unstable employment, further complicating the middle class's ability to maintain its status [16][17] - The article highlights the volatility of assets that the middle class relies on for financial security, such as real estate and stocks, which have not provided the expected stability [17][20] Group 3 - The article points out that the middle class often falls into a consumption trap, where they aspire to lifestyles of the wealthy, leading to financial strain and anxiety [22][23] - It discusses the societal pressures that drive middle-class individuals to invest heavily in education and luxury goods, despite economic instability [23][24] - The article concludes with a call for a "conscious reform" among the middle class to reassess spending and investment habits, moving away from outdated notions of hard work leading to financial success [24]

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of the "middle class" and its ambiguous definition, which varies based on income, assets, education, and social status [6][8][9] - It highlights the increasing frequency of the term "middle class" in business news and its association with consumer behavior, particularly in the context of brands that cater to this demographic [6][9] - The article presents data showing a decline in the middle class's share of national income in various countries, such as the U.S. and France, indicating a long-term trend of "middle class shrinkage" [10][11][13] Group 2 - The article identifies the sources of anxiety for the middle class, including economic growth, job security, and the rising cost of living, which have led to a perception of instability [15][17] - It discusses the impact of globalization and technological advancements on job markets, resulting in a bifurcated labor market where "good jobs" are scarce [16][17] - The article emphasizes the need for diversified pathways to middle-class status, suggesting that vocational and technical education could help blue-collar workers ascend to middle-class positions [17][18] Group 3 - The article explores the internal factors contributing to middle-class anxiety, such as consumer behavior and the pursuit of a lifestyle that mimics wealthier classes [23][26] - It notes that many middle-class individuals engage in "status consumption," leading to financial strain and a distorted view of their economic standing [26][27] - The article concludes with a call for a "conscious reform" among the middle class to reassess spending habits and investment strategies, moving away from outdated notions of hard work leading to financial stability [28]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the deep-rooted issues stemming from Japan's "lost two decades," particularly the detrimental effects of stigmatizing real estate as a pillar of the economy [1][6] - It highlights the need for a balanced approach to real estate policy, avoiding both extreme bubbles and the complete denial of its economic significance [7] Group 1: Economic Policy and Structural Issues - Ikeda Nobuo's work "The Lost Two Decades" critiques Japan's economic policy failures, particularly the rigid industrial structure and repeated mistakes in housing policy, leading to a vicious cycle of risk aversion, investment suppression, and demand shrinkage [2] - The call for "creative destruction" is presented as a crucial reminder for China to avoid similar pitfalls in its economic development [2] Group 2: Social Impacts of Real Estate Collapse - The transition from an "olive-shaped society" to an "M-shaped society" illustrates the decline of the middle class in Japan, with significant implications for social stability [3] - The concept of a "downstream society" reflects not only income decline but also a broader deterioration in communication skills, work motivation, and consumer drive among the youth [3] Group 3: Psychological Effects of Economic Stagnation - The notion of a "low-desire society" indicates that prolonged real estate stagnation has led to a general apathy among young people, who are increasingly disengaged from traditional life milestones [4] - The idea of society as an "unbeatable game" highlights the despair felt by youth in the face of limited upward mobility, leading to extreme views such as advocating for the legalization of euthanasia [4] Group 4: Consequences of Real Estate Stigmatization - "The Age of Negative Real Estate" focuses on the micro-level consequences of real estate collapse, including the transformation of assets into liabilities and the generational conflicts exacerbated by aging and declining birth rates [5] - The book warns that extreme real estate policies not only destroy economic momentum but also undermine family foundations and social stability [5] Group 5: Lessons for China - The article suggests that China should learn from Japan's experiences by maintaining a healthy real estate market and avoiding the stigmatization of the sector [7] - Emphasis is placed on addressing the employment and living conditions of the youth to prevent a repeat of Japan's "downstream society" [7] - The need for innovative policy frameworks to drive economic growth and avoid stagnation is highlighted, echoing Ikeda Nobuo's call for institutional innovation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "middle-class poverty" is misleading; instead, it is more accurate to describe it as "middle-class weight loss," indicating a loss of status and emotional value among the middle class [39]. Group 1: Economic Context - The middle class in China is experiencing a decline in their perceived status and emotional well-being due to economic challenges, including the withdrawal of foreign investment and difficulties in various industries such as internet, finance, and pharmaceuticals [12][15][39]. - The number of employees in foreign enterprises in China has decreased from approximately 30 million at its peak to 20 million in 2023, representing a one-third reduction [15]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The introduction of low-cost products, such as those from the brand "Hao Li You," in stores like Sam's Club has caused a significant backlash among the middle class, who feel their status is threatened by the presence of what they perceive as "common" goods [20][39]. - The emotional value previously derived from a sense of superiority over lower-income groups is diminishing, leading to a crisis of identity among the middle class [15][39]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Sam's Club, originally positioned as a mid-range store in the U.S., has been rebranded in China as a symbol of quality living, attracting significant attention from the middle class [12][16]. - The perception of imported goods as superior is declining, with local products increasingly being accepted, reflecting a shift in consumer attitudes [31].

Group 1 - The return on effort is decreasing over the years, leading to a sense of futility among individuals striving for success [2][19][44] - The shift from an "opening up" era to a "ranking" era has made it difficult for individuals to achieve upward mobility, as opportunities are increasingly limited [3][12][18] - The influence of lineage and social structures is becoming more pronounced, making it harder for individuals from less privileged backgrounds to succeed [4][27][39] Group 2 - Companies often prioritize organizational goals over individual aspirations, leading to a culture that stifles innovation and personal growth [7][10][11] - The overemphasis on performance metrics and short-term goals can hinder employees' long-term vision and cross-disciplinary thinking [8][9] - The rise of outsourcing has created a workforce that lacks a sense of belonging and clear career advancement paths, further complicating job security [13][15][16] Group 3 - The stagnation of technological advancement and the oversupply of certain job roles, such as programmers, contribute to the devaluation of effort in the job market [17][21] - The perception that education can change one's fate is diminishing as higher education becomes more accessible and societal structures become more rigid [19][20][22] - The current job market reflects a cycle where individuals feel increasingly like cogs in a machine, losing their drive and ambition [9][23][24] Group 4 - The dynamics of wealth distribution and business opportunities suggest that entrepreneurship remains a viable path for upward mobility, despite the challenges [29][30][38] - The future may favor those who can adapt to new technologies, such as AI, which can create opportunities for individuals with unique skills [30][31][45] - The social landscape is characterized by a duality where both inherited advantages and grassroots efforts coexist, leading to a complex societal structure [36][37][38]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Mingming Busy Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the growing demand for affordable snacks in China's evolving retail landscape [4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Mingming Busy aims for a retail sales target (GMV) of 55.5 billion yuan in 2024, with projected revenues of 4.286 billion yuan, 10.295 billion yuan, and 39.344 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - The company maintains a low gross margin of around 7.5% to 7.6% from 2022 to 2024, with net profit margins of 1.7% to 2.1% during the same period [4][5]. - As of December 31, 2024, Mingming Busy plans to operate 14,394 stores, with approximately 58% located in county and town areas [4]. Group 2: Market Context - China's urbanization rate increased from 56.1% in 2015 to 67% in 2024, highlighting a shift towards county-level economic development [5][6]. - The retail environment is evolving, with a focus on "quality-price ratio" as consumers become more price-sensitive due to economic changes [6][9]. - The rise of single-person households and small families is driving demand for convenient, affordable snack options, with predictions of 150 to 200 million single-person households by 2030 [9][10]. Group 3: Business Model and Strategy - Mingming Busy employs a "thin profit, high sales" strategy, targeting the mass consumer market rather than high-end customers [11][15]. - The company utilizes a franchise model for rapid expansion, achieving a 246.1% growth in franchise stores in 2023, with continued triple-digit growth expected in 2024 [15][16]. - By eliminating middlemen and adopting direct procurement, Mingming Busy offers products at prices approximately 25% lower than similar products in traditional supermarkets [17]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a digital warehouse management system to optimize logistics and reduce costs, achieving an inventory turnover period of 11.6 days and a logistics cost rate of under 2% [17][20]. - Mingming Busy focuses on enhancing the in-store experience, creating a welcoming shopping environment with effective product displays and minimal staff requirements [20][21]. Group 5: Brand Development and Marketing - The company has invested in brand recognition through partnerships with celebrities and the creation of dual-brand IPs to attract younger consumers [21][22]. - Mingming Busy aims to create a social space through its stores, catering to the evolving needs of consumers seeking both affordability and experience [22][23]. Group 6: Social Impact - The rise of Mingming Busy has led to the creation of 7,241 franchise opportunities, contributing to job creation and revitalizing local economies [22][23]. - The company's growth reflects a sustainable business model that meets consumer needs while generating significant social value [23].