行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 消费者服务行业周报（20260223-20260227） 推荐（维持） 春节客流创历史新高，下沉市场释放消费潜力 消费者服务 2026 年 03 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：饶临风 邮箱：raolinfeng@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080002 证券分析师：曹锦瑜 邮箱：caojinyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525100001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 55 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 4,988.04 | 0.43 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,570.81 | 0.49 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -7.7% | -0.7% | 9.2% | | 相对表现 | -6.9% | -20.3% | -9.9% | -8% 3% 13% 23% 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/10 25/12 26/02 2025- ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Reported net revenues for Q4 2025 were $2.12 billion, a 13.8% increase from $1.86 billion in the prior year period, with organic growth of 11.1% [14] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 increased by 21.9%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.9%, representing a 90 basis point increase compared to the prior year [15] - Full year 2025 adjusted free cash flow was $836 million, up $168 million from the previous year, with a conversion rate of 80% [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Safety Services segment, Q4 revenues were $1.42 billion, a 10.6% increase, with organic growth of 6.6% driven by inspection, service, and monitoring revenues [16] - Specialty Services reported Q4 revenues of $695 million, a 20.7% increase, with segment earnings margin at 11.9%, representing a 170 basis point increase [18] - The company increased the percentage of revenue from inspection, service, and monitoring from 40% in 2021 to 54% in 2025 [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog as of the end of 2025 was over $4 billion, indicating strong demand across various end markets [30] - Data centers represented approximately 8% of total revenue by the end of 2025, expected to grow to about 10% in 2026 [44] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for long-term financial targets of $10 billion in net revenues by 2028, with a focus on mid-single-digit organic growth and a 16%+ adjusted EBITDA margin [13] - The company continues to prioritize M&A, having completed 14 acquisitions in 2025, and sees a robust pipeline for future opportunities in fire-life safety and electronic security [11][47] - The company is committed to enhancing its procurement and technology investments to support margin expansion [75] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the business, noting that 54% of revenue comes from recurring inspection service and monitoring, which provides stability regardless of macroeconomic conditions [95] - The company anticipates continued strong demand in 2026, driven by robust project opportunities in data centers and advanced manufacturing [31][90] Other Important Information - The company has been recognized as a military-friendly employer for 2026, emphasizing its commitment to providing opportunities for veterans [5] - The company will celebrate its 100-year anniversary in 2026, reflecting on its legacy and commitment to community support [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Revenue guidance and market conditions - Management indicated that the revenue guidance reflects high single-digit growth in inspection service and monitoring, with low single-digit growth in project work, influenced by strong backlog and market conditions [28][30] Question: Adjusted EBITDA margins - Management does not expect material changes in tariffs to impact the business and anticipates enhanced gross margins from project-related work, particularly in data centers [36][38] Question: Data center opportunity contribution - Data centers contributed approximately 8% of revenue in 2025 and are expected to grow to 10% in 2026, with strong margins due to limited competition [44] Question: M&A pipeline - The M&A pipeline remains robust, with opportunities in North America and internationally, particularly in fire-life safety and elevator services [46] Question: Project demand assumptions - Management acknowledged that the guidance reflects conservatism due to early-year uncertainties and potential for strong project demand [78] Question: Industrial economy exposure - Management believes the business is well-insulated from macroeconomic fluctuations, with a strong focus on recurring revenue streams [95][96] Question: Heavy vs. light industrial market outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from complex end markets, with a focus on heavy industrial projects like data centers, while also growing its light industrial inspection and service business [105][107]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government is promoting the use of Hong Kong as a base for mainland enterprises to expand into overseas markets, supported by a new budget proposal for the fiscal year 2026-2027 [1] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, Paul Chan, announced the government's budget plan aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of local enterprises [1] - The government will establish a cross-sector professional service platform that integrates legal, accounting, financial, testing and certification, and marketing services to support outbound enterprises [1] - A promotional campaign will be organized by the government to attract mainland enterprises to use Hong Kong as a launchpad for international expansion [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the consumer promotion policy is expected to remain stable until 2026, but the recovery of the fundamental economy will take time due to adjustments in household balance sheets [1] - The social service sector is projected to focus on structural opportunities in the first half of the year, with a total of 42 listed companies having released performance forecasts for 2025, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49% and an overall expected profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumption sectors [2][3] - The consumption structure in China is shifting from a focus on goods to a balanced emphasis on both goods and services, with experience-based service consumption anticipated to become a primary growth engine [1] Group 2 - The social service industry consists of 85 A-share companies, with 42 having released performance forecasts, placing the disclosure rate at 49%, ranking fourth among consumption sectors [2] - Among the companies that have released forecasts, only 14% are expected to see year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, a decrease of 4% compared to 2024; the proportion of companies turning losses into profits and those continuing to incur losses has increased to 10% and 48%, respectively [2] - The tourism and scenic area sector is showing signs of recovery, with 8 out of 13 companies that have disclosed forecasts expected to be profitable; the hotel and restaurant sector is also performing well, with two companies expecting profit increases and a decrease in loss ratios [3]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% to 4,117.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.99%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.20 trillion RMB, with over 3,700 stocks rising [2][8] - In the Shenwan industry classification, the oil and petrochemical and building materials sectors led the gains, while the media sector lagged. Among concept sectors, combustible ice and cultivated diamond concepts had the highest increases [2][8] Important News - On February 24, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the inclusion of 20 Japanese entities in the export control list, which includes companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries that are involved in enhancing Japan's military capabilities. Another 20 entities, including Subaru Corporation, were placed on a watch list due to unverified end-users and end-uses of dual-use items [3][8] Industry Analysis - As of February 15, 2026, 42 listed companies in the social service sector had released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 49% and an overall pre-profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumption sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balance of goods and services, with service consumption expected to be a major growth driver [9][10] - The social service sector is anticipated to see structural opportunities in the first half of 2026, driven by policies such as the implementation of the Spring and Autumn holiday system and a gradual recovery in consumer confidence. Key areas of focus include travel-related companies benefiting from these policies, leading chain restaurants in a critical phase of expansion, and early-stage investments in emerging experiential sectors like sports events and concerts [9][10] Earnings Forecasts - The social service sector has a total of 85 A-share companies, with 42 having released earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fourth among consumption sectors. Among the companies that released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable in 2025, with a pre-profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among consumption sectors. Compared to the same period in 2024, the sector's performance is under pressure, with a noticeable trend of divergence [10][12] - The tourism and scenic area sector is showing signs of recovery, with 8 out of 13 companies that released forecasts expected to be profitable. The professional services sector is performing steadily, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses [10][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Insights - As of February 15, 2026, 42 out of 85 listed companies in the social services sector have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%. The overall pre-profit rate for the sector is 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumer sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balanced focus on both goods and services, with experience-based service consumption expected to be a major growth driver. For 2026, stable consumer policy guidance is anticipated, but recovery in the fundamentals will take time due to adjustments in household balance sheets. The first half of 2026 is expected to present mainly structural opportunities [2][3][30]. Summary by Sections Disclosure and Performance - The social services sector has a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fifth among eight major consumer sectors. Among the 42 companies that have released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable, leading to a pre-profit rate of 45%, which is the sixth highest among consumer sectors. Compared to 2024, the performance of the social services sector is under pressure, with only 14% of companies expected to see year-on-year profit growth, a decrease of 4% from the previous year. The proportion of companies turning losses into profits and those continuing to incur losses has increased to 10% and 48%, respectively, with nearly half of the companies continuing to report losses [3][11][30]. Subsector Performance - Most subsectors have a disclosure rate exceeding 50%, with the tourism and scenic spots sector showing signs of recovery. Among 13 companies that have disclosed forecasts in this sector, 8 are expected to be profitable. The professional services sector remains stable with over half expected to be profitable, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses. The tourism and scenic spots sector continues to face pressure, but there are positive signals of recovery, with the proportion of companies turning losses into profits increasing from 8% to 23%. The hotel and restaurant sector is performing well, with two companies expecting profit increases and a decrease in loss ratios. The education sector, however, is underperforming, with 7 out of 10 companies continuing to report losses [4][15][16][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the travel chain sector that will benefit from the implementation of the spring and autumn holiday system and the gradual recovery of consumer confidence. Additionally, attention should be given to leading chain restaurants that are in a critical phase of scaling up and increasing market share, as well as the early-stage value of emerging experience-based sectors such as sports events and concerts [2][30].

Group 1 - US Bank plans to invest $25 billion in private credit transactions, extending its existing direct lending business through its capital markets division [2] - Accenture mandates senior employees to regularly use internal AI tools to qualify for promotions, tracking usage frequency as a performance metric [3] - Nvidia is nearing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI, replacing a previous $100 billion long-term commitment [2] Group 2 - Meta has reduced equity-based awards for most employees by approximately 5%, marking the second consecutive year of cuts [2] - Newmont Corporation expects a 10% decrease in gold production by 2026 due to underperformance at two jointly operated mines with Barrick [2] - AppLovin is developing its own social network platform, which could enhance user data access and increase competition with established social media giants [3] Group 3 - AstraZeneca's Calquence combination therapy has been approved by the FDA for treating chronic lymphocytic leukemia and small lymphocytic lymphoma [3] - Google has released the Gemini 3.1 Pro model, which boasts double the inference performance compared to its predecessor [3]

Group 1 - The stock of Jianyan Institute (603183) has shown short-term volatility but maintains a stable performance in the medium to long term [1][2] - The closing price of the stock was 4.72 yuan, down 1.46% from the previous day, with a cumulative decline of 1.05% over the last five trading days, while it recorded a 6.07% increase over the last twenty trading days [1][2] - The trading volume for the day was 43.02 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.82%, and a trailing twelve months (TTM) price-to-earnings ratio of 58.03 [1] Group 2 - The professional services sector, to which Jianyan Institute belongs, saw a slight increase of 0.50%, while the social services sector experienced a decline of 0.80% during the same period [1][2] - The stock's performance indicates resilience despite recent adjustments, reflecting a positive outlook in the medium term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Yicai Research Institute and Deloitte China aims to establish a comprehensive service system for Chinese enterprises going global, addressing the urgent need for high-quality, systematic, and customized outbound services [1][2]. Group 1: Collaboration and Service Development - Yicai Research Institute and Deloitte China signed a memorandum of cooperation to create a full-chain service system for Chinese enterprises going abroad, leveraging their extensive experience in outbound services and international communication [1]. - The partnership began in 2023, resulting in the publication of the "White Paper on the New Era of Chinese Enterprises' Globalization," which was presented at the Deloitte Global Partners Conference and the China International Service Trade Fair [2]. - The collaboration aims to fill the market gap for high-quality outbound services and provide policy recommendations to government departments for optimizing support for Chinese enterprises [1][2]. Group 2: Research and Insights - Yicai Research Institute has been conducting research on the globalization of Chinese enterprises since 2021, producing over ten significant reports covering various aspects such as service trade and the Belt and Road Initiative [2]. - The research initiative "Crossing Mountains and Seas" has created a strong communication effect and aims to address key issues like the cultural and brand challenges faced by Chinese enterprises abroad [2][3]. Group 3: Service System and Expertise - Yicai has established a comprehensive service system that integrates real-time news, hot topic analysis, in-depth research reports, and a full information database, enhancing its support for Chinese enterprises [3]. - Deloitte China has over 20 years of experience in providing a full-chain professional service system, with more than 4,600 professionals deployed in over 90 countries, facilitating effective communication and support for Chinese enterprises [4]. - The future collaboration aims to create a sustainable ecosystem for outbound services, focusing on personalized solutions that meet the actual needs of Chinese enterprises [5].

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant capital inflows into various stocks, highlighting potential investment opportunities in specific sectors such as energy metals, rare metals, and technology [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Inflows - The top stock with capital inflow is Greeenmei, attracting 1.312 billion yuan with a price increase of 9.84% [2] - Northern Rare Earth follows closely with 1.305 billion yuan inflow and a 4.94% rise [2] - Zijin Mining received 0.809 billion yuan with a 1.6% increase [2] - Zaiseng Technology saw a capital inflow of 0.763 billion yuan, marking a 10% rise [2] - Wangsu Technology attracted 0.701 billion yuan with a notable increase of 10.22% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The energy metals sector is represented by Greeenmei and Huayou Cobalt, both showing strong capital inflows and positive price movements [2] - The rare metals sector includes Northern Rare Earth and Zhongtung High-tech, both experiencing significant inflows and price increases [2] - The technology sector is highlighted by Wangsu Technology and Zaiseng Technology, both of which have seen substantial capital inflows and notable price gains [2][3]