周度报告—铸造铝合金 废铝偏紧给予支撑，关注税返退坡情况 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 铸造铝合金：看涨 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 8 | 月 | 24 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★废铝货源偏紧，持续关注税返取消政策执行情况 上周（08/18-08/22）再铸铝合金锭震荡偏强运行。AD2511 收盘 价环比+0.05%至 20,175 元/吨；保太集团 ADC12 销售价格环比 上行 100 元/吨至 20,000 元/吨。成本方面，富宝 ADC12 生产成 本周内环比上涨 121.4 元/吨至 19832.8 元/吨，利润环比缩窄 21.5 元/吨至 167.1 元/吨。 基本面上，废铝市场维持供应偏紧，价格仍处高位。分区域来看， 安徽及江西个别地区有传言表示 8 月 31 日取缔地方退税政策， 且近期亦有严查反向开票带来的补缴税收问题，因此再生铝厂对 原料有一定压价，并倾向于抬高铝合金锭销售价格。我们调研了 解到短期政策"一刀切"的可能性较小，仍将以平稳落地为主据 此，废铝持货商因供应 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the successful implementation of "credit loans" for enterprises in Henan, allowing them to secure significant funding without collateral, solely based on quality certification [4][8][9] - Two companies, Pud Energy and Xigetenghua, each received 10 million yuan in loans, which will help alleviate their financial shortages and support ongoing projects [4][8] - Pud Energy focuses on lithium battery production, while Xigetenghua is the largest recycled aluminum producer in the region, with a production output of 43,000 tons and a revenue of 860 million yuan as of June this year [8][9] Group 2 - The local market supervision bureau played a crucial role in connecting these companies with the bank, facilitating the loan process and promoting financial inclusivity for private enterprises [8][9] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance quality management systems among small and medium-sized enterprises, addressing their financing challenges and fostering innovation [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The implementation of policies such as the "Notice on Matters Related to the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" may have a significant impact on aspects like local tax rebates and reverse invoicing in the recycled aluminum industry, increasing production costs and potentially leading to production cuts or shutdowns [2][3][10] - Under the influence of reverse invoicing investigations and tax rebate declines, the demand for invoiced resources and imported raw materials is expected to increase, and the production costs of ADC12 in East and South China may change structurally, providing strong support for the price of ADC12 [4][24] - Considering the cost - increase expectations on the smelting side and the supply shortage of scrap aluminum, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 is more secure, and attention can be paid to the position - building opportunity when the price difference is below - 500 [4][24] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Event Overview - Since August 1, 2024, the "Regulations on the Review of Fair Competition" has clearly restricted tax incentives for specific operators. Recently, the "Notice on Matters Related to the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" may have a major impact on local tax rebates and reverse invoicing in the recycled aluminum industry [10] Event Analysis - Due to the low entry threshold of the recycled aluminum industry and local tax rebate policies, a large amount of production capacity has expanded, resulting in intensified competition, thin profits, and low capacity utilization. As of July 2025, the monthly production capacity of 158 sample recycled cast aluminum enterprises reached 1264,500 tons, but the output was only 528,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 41.7%. In 2024, the operating production capacity of recycled aluminum in China was 23 million tons, and the actual output was 10.5 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 45%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5 pcts [10] - There are "tax havens" in the recycled aluminum industry. The comprehensive tax burden of recycled aluminum enterprises in Anhui is about 6.5%, and the lowest can reach 5.5%, which can reduce the operating cost by 300 - 400 yuan/ton. In 2024, the production capacity of recycled aluminum in Anhui exceeded 2 million tons, accounting for more than 10% of the national total [11] - The policy aims to promote fair competition. The cancellation of local tax rebates may increase the comprehensive tax burden by about 4% and the production cost by up to 800 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in tax - haven areas may face production cuts or shutdowns. However, the policy implementation has a gradual nature, and most enterprises are given a buffer period [17][18] - The policy may reduce the demand for scrap aluminum, but if local governments investigate the compliance of reverse invoicing, the demand for invoiced and imported scrap aluminum will increase sharply. The cost in East China may increase significantly [21] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 is more secure, and attention can be paid to the position - building opportunity when the price difference is below - 500 [4][24]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 712,627.98 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.75% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 17,663.48 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 110.56% [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Expansion - The release of 400,000 tons of casting aluminum alloy capacity in Anhui in the first half of 2025 contributed to a 7.27% increase in product sales [3][2] - The company has established four production bases in Chongqing, Guangdong, Hubei, and Anhui, with a total capacity of 1,050,000 tons in the casting aluminum alloy sector [4] - The deformable aluminum alloy sector has a capacity of 50,000 tons in Anhui, expected to gradually commence production in 2026 [4] Group 3: Product and Market Overview - The main products include various grades of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, with ADC12 being the most widely used [5] - The company serves various industries, including automotive, general machinery, communication equipment, and electronics, with products distributed across Southwest, South China, East China, and Central China [5] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims for a 3%-5% increase in domestic aluminum resources and a recycled aluminum output of over 15 million tons by 2027 [6] - The company benefits from a diversified regional layout, enhancing local supplier relationships and reducing transportation costs [7] - The product application spans multiple industries, strengthening the company's risk resistance [7] Group 5: Impact of Trade Policies - The company's products are primarily sold domestically, with no direct exports, thus minimizing the impact of trade wars on performance [7]

Core Insights - The launch of the AD12.1 aluminum alloy futures and options marks a historic moment for China's futures market, enabling full industry chain coverage for non-ferrous metal futures and supporting the low-carbon transition of the global aluminum industry [1][8] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The pricing mechanism innovation through the AD12.1 futures contract enhances transparency in the recycled aluminum industry, shifting pricing from regional negotiations to a national benchmark [3][4] - The AD12.1 futures provide precise hedging tools for companies, allowing them to lock in raw material procurement and product sales prices, thus creating a closed-loop risk management system [4][6] - Strict quality standards for delivery under the AD12.1 contract will drive industry consolidation, with expectations that leading companies will increase their market share to over 40% in the next three years [5][6] Group 2: Opportunities for Leading Companies - Anhui Lixing Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. benefits from being one of the first delivery companies, enhancing its brand value and market position in high-end sectors like automotive parts and photovoltaic supports [6][7] - The company is investing in quality control upgrades, achieving a product qualification rate increase from 92% to 98.5% through improved processes, which solidifies its market position in the Yangtze River Delta [7][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The establishment of the AD12.1 futures is a critical step for China to transition from an aluminum production powerhouse to a pricing leader in the global market [8][9] - The expected growth in recycled aluminum investment by 30% post-launch and projected production exceeding 18 million tons by 2030 will significantly contribute to carbon reduction efforts [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to issue A-shares to specific investors to raise up to 600 million yuan, which will dilute immediate returns but aims to enhance long-term profitability and shareholder value [2][6][15] Financial Impact - The issuance will increase the total share capital by 14.94%, with a maximum fundraising amount of 600 million yuan, not considering issuance costs [2] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated to be 11,662.67 million yuan, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years [3] - The basic earnings per share (EPS) before the issuance is projected at 0.38, which may decrease to 0.28 post-issuance under various profit scenarios [4][5] Company Strategy - The company focuses on the production and sales of recycled aluminum alloys, specifically targeting the production of recycled wrought aluminum alloys through the new fundraising project [6][7] - The strategic goal is to balance the production of various recycled aluminum alloy products and increase the proportion of recycled wrought aluminum alloys in the product mix [7][8] Project Feasibility - The fundraising project aligns with the company's existing business, utilizing waste aluminum as the primary raw material, thus enhancing resource recycling [6][8] - The company has established a strong foundation in terms of personnel, technology, and market resources to support the new project [11][12] Risk Mitigation Measures - To address the dilution of immediate returns, the company plans to enhance its operational capabilities and market presence, thereby improving profitability [15] - The company has implemented a robust fundraising management system to ensure the proper use of raised funds, adhering to regulatory requirements [15][16] Commitment to Shareholders - The controlling shareholders and management have made commitments to ensure the fulfillment of measures to compensate for the dilution of immediate returns, emphasizing the protection of shareholder interests [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The company has experienced a significant decline in performance, with a notable drop in net profit and operating cash flow due to various factors including increased raw material costs, changes in sales strategies, and external economic pressures [1][10][11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's net profit was 0.19 billion, a decrease of 86.04% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 0.011 billion, down 92.60% [1][11]. - The total revenue for 2024 was 6.999 billion, a slight increase of 2.98% compared to 2023, but the gross profit margin fell to 5.23% from 7.98% in 2023 [5][12]. Business Segments - The company operates primarily in two segments: aluminum alloy ingots and scrap materials, with the aluminum alloy ingot segment showing a revenue increase of 13.39% in 2024, while the scrap segment saw a decline of 4.72% [5][8]. - The aluminum alloy ingot sales volume increased by 8.84% in 2024, attributed to a rise in both volume and price, while the average price per ton was 17,184.67 yuan, up 4.18% [5][6]. Cost Structure - The gross margin for aluminum alloy ingots dropped to 1.63% in 2024 from 4.26% in 2023, primarily due to rising raw material costs and increased operational expenses [7][10]. - The cost of raw materials, which constitutes over 90% of the total cost structure, has seen significant fluctuations, impacting overall profitability [8][10]. Market Conditions - The company faces intensified competition in the recycling aluminum industry due to trade tensions and regulatory changes affecting raw material supply, leading to increased costs and reduced margins [3][8]. - The scrap business, primarily serving the U.S. market, has remained stable in terms of volume but has been affected by declining prices in the black metal market, resulting in a slight revenue decrease [4][9]. Future Outlook - The company does not foresee a sustained decline in performance, as the adverse factors affecting 2024 are considered temporary, with strategies in place to mitigate risks and stabilize operations [17][22]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed signs of recovery, with a net profit of 0.021 billion, indicating a positive trend moving forward [21][22].

Group 1 - The 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Mozambique was celebrated with mutual congratulatory messages from President Xi Jinping and President Nyusi [1] - The focus of the meeting included strengthening bilateral cooperation and exploring new areas of collaboration [1] Group 2 - The city of Jiaozuo is actively engaging in investment promotion, with Mayor Liu Bing leading a delegation to Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai to explore cooperation opportunities [7] - Key sectors of interest include environmental coatings, recycled aluminum resource utilization, biomedicine, green hydrogen equipment manufacturing, and clean energy [7][8] - The Jiaozuo government aims to attract high-quality enterprises and projects to enhance local industrial development [8] Group 3 - At Jiangsu Sanmu Group, discussions centered on accelerating the construction of a 20,000-ton annual production project for environmentally friendly coating solvents [7] - The company is positioned as a key player in the polymer materials industry in Jiaozuo, with plans for equipment upgrades and product iterations [7] - The chairman of Jiangsu Sanmu Group expressed commitment to advancing project timelines and resource allocation [7] Group 4 - At Hangzhou Jinjiang Group, the focus was on investment cooperation in recycled aluminum resource utilization, aligning with Jiaozuo's industrial strengths [8] - The group aims to expand its investment footprint in Jiaozuo, particularly in non-ferrous metals and new materials [8] - The chairman of Jinjiang Group indicated plans to enhance production capacity and innovation in the aluminum processing sector [8] Group 5 - At Shanghai Modern Pharmaceutical Co., discussions were held regarding the construction of a new project for producing 4.5 billion new type comprehensive preparations annually [9] - The company aims to leverage its strengths in technology research and development, drug production, and medical services to foster collaboration [9] - The president of Shanghai Modern Pharmaceutical emphasized the importance of project construction and enhancing the pharmaceutical industry in Jiaozuo [9] Group 6 - At Shanghai Shipbuilding Technology Co., the conversation focused on establishing a green hydrogen equipment manufacturing and clean energy base project [9] - The company is encouraged to strengthen its investment confidence in Jiaozuo and collaborate on hydrogen production and storage technologies [9] - The general manager of the company expressed intentions to refine investment plans and expedite project implementation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is a milestone for the recycled aluminum industry in China, contributing to the establishment of a fair and transparent pricing mechanism and providing efficient risk management tools for industry enterprises [1]. Industry Overview - China is a major producer and consumer of recycled aluminum, with production expected to exceed 10 million tons in 2024 and reach over 18 million tons by 2030 [1]. - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is anticipated to promote the standardized development of the recycled aluminum industry [1]. Market Participation - On the first day of trading, the casting aluminum alloy futures saw active participation from industry enterprises, including notable companies such as Lichong Sihua Light Alloy Group Co., Ltd. and Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. [1]. - The trading environment is expected to become more active, leading to a fairer market price for aluminum alloys [2]. Risk Management - The new futures product will enhance the effectiveness of hedging for enterprises, allowing for better risk management compared to previous reliance on aluminum futures [2]. - The futures market will facilitate production adjustments and improve resource allocation within the industry [2][3]. Comprehensive Services - Futures companies can provide a range of services from standardized contracts to customized products, aiding enterprises in market risk management and strategic development [3][4]. - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options complements existing aluminum futures products, forming a comprehensive risk management system for the aluminum industry [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing price of cast aluminum alloy futures is 18,365 yuan/ton [1]. - Under the situation of increasing supply and demand, the contradiction at the raw material end may become more prominent. The price of scrap aluminum supports cast aluminum alloy from the cost - logic, and the price center of aluminum alloy may rise slightly [1]. - The calculated cost - end price range of cast aluminum alloy futures is 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - demand Pattern - Supply side: The production capacity of the recycled aluminum industry is expanding rapidly, with a capacity increase of over one million tons. This will widen the supply - demand gap of scrap aluminum, leading to a stronger pricing in the scrap aluminum recycling link [1]. - Demand side: The lightweight trend of automobiles expands the demand for die - cast aluminum alloy, and the growth rate of aluminum alloy used in automobiles is higher than the production and sales growth rate of the automobile industry [1]. Cost Price Expectation - The cost - end calculated price range of cast aluminum alloy futures is 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [2]. Listing Strategy Recommendations - For production enterprises: When the futures price is lower than the spot price plus the selling delivery cost (about 364 yuan/ton), they can buy spot for delivery to make a profit [3]. - Short - term long: The first - day listing price of 18,365 yuan/ton is significantly lower than the spot price (19,400 yuan/ton in the mainstream of East China) and below the cost line. It is recommended to go long on dips. Pay attention to the resistance levels at 19,500 yuan/ton (cost line) and 19,800 yuan/ton (the upper limit of the reasonable price difference range with Shanghai Aluminum) [3]. - Long - term short: The recycled aluminum industry has over - capacity (with an operating rate of less than 50%), there is no obvious increase in demand, and the medium - and long - term price may be under pressure. Short positions can be arranged above 20,000 yuan/ton [3]. Futures Listing Information - The listing price of cast aluminum alloy futures on June 10, 2025, for contracts expiring from November 17, 2025, to May 15, 2026, is 18,365 yuan/ton [1][4].