行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 机械行业周报（20251208-20251214） 经济会议定调看好工程机械，核聚变领域中 推荐（维持） 标公告密集发布产业化有望提速 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 汇川技术 | 300124.SZ | 73.90 | 2.11 | 2.54 | 3.00 | 35.04 | 29.13 | 24.64 | 6.15 | 强推 | | 法兰泰克 | 603966.SH | 10.97 | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.94 | 18.30 | 14.34 | 11.63 | 2.49 | 强推 | | 信捷电气 | 603416.SH | 55.10 | 1.83 | 2.30 | 2.7 ...

Group 1: Engineering Machinery - Domestic demand for excavators is expected to recover to around 120,000 units in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6% in the first ten months of 2025 [1][15] - The export of excavators reached 93,800 units in the first ten months of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, with an expected annual growth rate of around 15% [1][29] - The recovery in domestic demand is primarily driven by small excavators, reflecting increased demand for machinery in rural and small-scale water conservancy projects [15][20] Group 2: Shipbuilding and Offshore Engineering - The global shipbuilding industry saw a decline in new orders, with a total of 9,483.31 million deadweight tons in the first ten months of 2025, down 44.67% year-on-year [2] - The shipbuilding price index has shown a general decline, but there is a recovery in orders for bulk carriers and oil tankers in October 2025 [2] - The upcoming replacement cycle in shipbuilding, combined with tightening global environmental policies, is expected to drive a new round of demand growth [2] Group 3: Cyclical Industries - The cyclical sector is showing signs of recovery in 2025, supported by low baselines and the expansion into new industries [3] - The industrial control market is rebounding, with a notable increase in the OEM market, while project-based markets are showing weaker performance [3] - The industrial robot market is expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year in 2025, indicating a sustained recovery [3] Group 4: AI and Robotics - The AI sector is driving significant changes in various industries, with a focus on humanoid robots, data center equipment, and vertical applications [4] - The demand for data center backup power sources is increasing due to global capacity shortages, with domestic alternatives expected to accelerate [4] - The introduction of humanoid robots is becoming a reality, with significant production plans announced by companies like Tesla for 2026 [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the engineering machinery sector, particularly companies like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, which are expected to benefit from domestic and international demand [5][9] - In the shipbuilding and offshore engineering sector, China International Marine Containers (CIMC) is highlighted as a potential beneficiary of the recovery [5][9] - The AI and robotics sector presents investment opportunities in companies like Weichuang Electric and Jack Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industrial transformation [5][9]

中金研究 展望2026年，我们判断机械行业中科技创新板块仍具备显著投资机会；其次，出口端虽面临不确定性，但随着国际化进程推进，叠加美联储降息落地 等，我们认为外需存结构性机遇；内需层面，下游短期难见大范围产能扩张，但随着产能出清和通用企业向成长行业转型，股价有望反弹。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract AI基建：高景气资本开支和高频技术迭代带来机械发展新机遇。 1）海外算力资本开支超预期，行业扩产带动PCB设备和AIDC设备需求持续高增，全球 供给紧张，钻孔设备、柴油发动机、燃气轮机等有望迎来国产替代机会。2）AI算力升级催生设备及耗材新需求，下一代芯片Rubin在PCB、散热等架构上 创新，提高了PCB耗材和冷板、快接头等结构件的加工要求，并带动微通道液冷等新技术方案，设备及耗材价值量有望进一步提升。 人形机器人：2026年 产业 进度加速，关注头部扩产。 国产企业如宇树、智元等公司有望陆续上市，国产人形机器人性能快速迭代，应用场景合作生态加 速打开。重视软硬件技术发展，关注汽车、消费电子零部件跨界切入。 专用设备：关注景气拐点和技术变革的子赛道。 供给出清+技术创新趋势，看好：1）存在技术变革或技 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI (Producer Price Index) will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets. The market may perceive cyclical goods as superior to technology during the PPI recovery phase, but the report argues that foreign capital is fundamentally buying assets with improved fundamentals, focusing on ROE (Return on Equity) recovery [3][10][4] - Historical analysis shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI growth, indicating that a recovering Chinese economy leads to foreign capital inflows. During previous appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw price increases, suggesting that the RMB is likely to appreciate in 2026, prompting foreign capital to reassess Chinese assets [3][10][4] - The report forecasts that during past PPI recovery phases, both A-share and Hong Kong stock ROE have shown significant improvement, with a clear positive correlation between PPI growth and corporate profitability. It is expected that ROE for both markets will continue to improve in 2026 as PPI rises [4][10] - From the perspective of foreign capital's historical investment preferences, profitability is a crucial consideration. The report notes that changes in ROE are highly correlated with foreign ownership in various sectors, indicating that sectors with strong competitive advantages are likely to attract more foreign investment [10] - The report highlights that foreign capital has been reassessing Chinese assets in 2025, with a notable increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs. The A-H premium is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting heightened foreign interest in core assets listed in Hong Kong [10] - The report identifies several sectors in Hong Kong that are expected to see ROE improvements in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI industry core assets), and cyclical sectors, which are anticipated to benefit from demand recovery and pricing power [10] - The report also notes that domestic capital has room to increase its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with significant portions of public funds allocated to Hong Kong equities, indicating potential for further investment [10] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the knife industry, highlighting that rising costs and demand are driving price increases, with major manufacturers announcing price hikes due to surging tungsten prices. This trend is expected to lead to sustained performance improvements for knife companies [12][15][16] - The report indicates that the knife industry has experienced multiple rounds of price adjustments in response to raw material cost pressures, with the latest round occurring in November. The demand from the electric vehicle supply chain is providing strong support for the knife market [15][16] - The report notes that the profitability of knife manufacturers has improved significantly in Q3 2025, with companies reporting substantial year-on-year revenue and profit growth, driven by earlier price increases and low-cost inventory [15][16] - The report suggests that the current market dynamics may lead to a consolidation of the industry, as smaller manufacturers face challenges due to rising raw material costs, potentially benefiting larger firms with stronger financial positions [15][16]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI (Producer Price Index) will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets. The market may expect cyclical goods to outperform technology during the PPI recovery phase, but the report argues that foreign capital is fundamentally buying assets with improved fundamentals, focusing on ROE (Return on Equity) recovery [3][10] - Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI growth, indicating that a recovering Chinese economy will attract foreign capital. During previous appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw significant gains [3][10] - The report forecasts that both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks' ROE will continue to improve alongside the recovery of PPI growth, with A-share ROE stabilizing in Q3 2025 and Hong Kong stock ROE expected to stabilize by the end of 2024 [4][10] Industry Analysis - The report identifies key sectors in Hong Kong stocks that are likely to benefit from improved ROE in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI industry chain core assets), and cyclical sectors. It highlights that Hong Kong stocks are becoming increasingly attractive compared to A-shares due to better fundamentals and valuation discounts [10] - In 2025, foreign capital has been actively reassessing Chinese assets, with a notable increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs. The report notes that the premium of A-shares over H-shares is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting heightened foreign interest in core assets listed in Hong Kong [10] - The report also mentions that domestic capital has room to increase its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with public funds showing a growing presence in the market [10] Market Trends - The report indicates that certain sectors, such as consumer staples, have underperformed for three consecutive years and may present investment opportunities in 2026. It also notes a recent increase in short-selling activity in the new consumption sector, suggesting potential volatility [10] - The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the tool manufacturing industry due to rising raw material costs, with significant price increases observed in hard alloy tools. This trend is expected to continue as demand from the electric vehicle supply chain remains strong [15][16] - The report concludes that the tool manufacturing sector is likely to see sustained performance improvements, driven by price adjustments and recovering profit margins as companies adapt to rising costs [15][16]

Core Insights - The report indicates that market volatility is driven by fluctuations in win rates rather than a complete reversal, suggesting that the index is expected to remain in a state of oscillation [5][6] - The overall market liquidity remains ample, with margin financing balances at 2.46 trillion yuan, placing it in the 97.5th percentile over the past three years [3] - The report highlights that the recent market decline reflects a phase of win rate logic fluctuations, primarily influenced by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and concerns over AI-related debt [3][4] Market Analysis - The technology sector continues to face adjustments primarily due to expectation volatility, with the AI industry chain experiencing high valuations and limited upside potential [4] - Defensive demand and a slight recovery in domestic inflation are benefiting dividend and cyclical styles, as indicated by a 0.2% year-on-year increase in October CPI, marking the first positive change in four months [4] - The report notes that the win rate logic has not shifted, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory remaining below expectations, while the U.S. economy may require further rate cuts [5] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on sectors with lower crowding within technology, such as gaming and media, while also recommending global pricing resources like gold and copper due to the backdrop of overseas rate cuts and fiscal expansion [6] - The December stock selection includes a mix of ETFs and individual stocks across various sectors, emphasizing a defensive strategy amid market oscillation [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The tungsten price is expected to continue rising due to tightening supply and strategic pricing, with a significant increase in tungsten concentrate prices reported at 336,000 RMB/ton, up 135% year-to-date [3]. - The hard alloy tool industry has seen multiple price adjustments in 2025, with the latest round in November being the third this year, driven by rising raw material costs [3]. - The October tool price index showed a continued upward trend, with the index reaching 115.01 points, reflecting a 0.67% month-on-month increase, driven by strong demand from the new energy vehicle sector [3]. - Q3 results for tool manufacturers indicate a recovery in profits, with companies like Huari Precision and Oke Yi reporting significant year-on-year revenue and profit growth [3]. - The industry is expected to see a shift towards larger firms as smaller manufacturers face challenges due to rising raw material costs and cash payment requirements [3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with a notable reduction in mining quotas for 2025 and export controls from China contributing to price increases [3]. - Demand remains cautious but is supported by downstream essential needs, particularly in the precision machining sector [3]. Price Adjustments and Market Trends - The hard alloy tool industry has undergone three rounds of price adjustments in 2025, with the latest adjustments reflecting a broader industry trend rather than isolated incidents [3]. - The October tool price index indicates that cutting tools are a primary driver of price increases, supported by both cost pressures and demand from the new energy vehicle industry [3]. Company Performance and Outlook - Q3 performance for key companies shows significant profit recovery, with Huari Precision achieving a 44.49% year-on-year revenue increase and a 915.62% rise in net profit [3]. - The report highlights a potential consolidation in the industry, with larger firms likely to benefit from stronger financial positions and better access to raw materials [3].

Summary of the Tooling and PCB Drill Needle Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tooling industry is currently facing challenges due to price wars, leading to poor profit performance. However, several companies have raised prices by double digits, with increases exceeding 50% in some cases. If overseas companies continue to raise prices, domestic firms may follow suit, potentially improving profitability [1][3] - The manufacturing sector is expected to bottom out around 2025 or 2026, with medium to long-term loan data being a key indicator. Tooling orders are anticipated to continue growing, but the growth rate needs to be monitored. The PCB drill needle sector is performing well, although companies are cautious about expanding production [1][4] Market Size and Growth Potential - The Chinese PCB drill needle market was approximately 2.1 billion RMB in 2020, while the global market was around 15.1 billion RMB. It is projected to exceed 10 billion RMB by 2030, indicating significant market potential [1][5] - Tungsten carbide is the primary material for drill needles, and the market share of diamond-coated drill bits is expected to increase. Companies like Ward are making progress in the diamond micro-drill field, and technological breakthroughs may become a future trend [1][6] Raw Material Price Impact - Tungsten carbide powder and cobalt powder account for over 60% of tooling costs. The price of tungsten carbide powder has surged from approximately 300 RMB/kg at the end of March to over 700 RMB/kg, more than doubling. This has led to price increases in the tooling sector, but the lag between rising costs and price adjustments may affect company performance in Q4 and Q1 of the following year [1][7] - China holds 50% of the world's tungsten resources and has implemented a quota system since 2002. A decrease in quotas this year is likely to continue, which may keep tungsten carbide powder prices elevated, exerting cost pressure upstream [1][8] Competitive Landscape - The tooling industry has a high concentration, with leading companies like Ding Tai High-Tech and Jingzhou Zhonggao New Material holding significant market shares and expanding rapidly. Ding Tai's market share is approximately 26.5% [2][11] - The demand for tooling is expected to grow alongside the PCB sector, particularly driven by server demand. The industry is characterized by a few dominant players, with Ding Tai and Jingzhou Zhonggao being the primary leaders [10][11] Future Trends and Recommendations - The order growth in the tooling industry is currently positive, but sustaining this growth rate is uncertain due to potential stockpiling effects. Prices are expected to continue rising, which could help the industry escape the long-standing price war and achieve healthy development [12] - The PCB drill needle segment is performing well, and leading companies are likely to maintain their competitive advantages through scale and R&D capabilities. It is recommended to focus on Ding Tai and Zhong Tung as they may continue to solidify their market positions and expand their competitive edge [14]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.24%, driven by gains in sectors such as fine chemicals, basic metals, and electrical networks, while road and oil & gas sectors experienced declines [1] - The machine tool sector showed strength, with the Machine Tool ETF (159663) rising by 0.97%, and notable increases in constituent stocks such as Jiangte Electric rising by 5.90%, Haimeixing by 5.82%, and Sifangda by 4.06% [1] Group 2 - In Q3 2025, leading companies in the cutting tool industry, such as Okoyi and Huarui Precision, reported significant growth, with Okoyi's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 420 million and 50 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 33.0% and 69.3%, while Huarui Precision reported revenue and net profit of 250 million and 50 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 44.5% and 915.6% [3] - Guotou Securities indicated that as the industrial economy is expected to enter a recovery phase, cutting tool products, as processing consumables, will benefit first, particularly for domestic leading companies with scale effects and robust sales networks [3] - The Machine Tool ETF (159663) closely tracks the China Securities Machine Tool Index, which encompasses key sectors in China's manufacturing industry, including high-end equipment manufacturing, laser equipment, machine tools, robots, and industrial control equipment, aligning with the new productivity concept emphasizing innovation and industrial upgrading [3]

Group 1: High-Quality Development in Guangdong - The core message emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development through deepening reform and opening up, as highlighted by Xi Jinping's recent visit to Guangdong [1] - Guangdong is recognized as a leader in reform and opening up, with a call to leverage technological and industrial transformation opportunities for coordinated urban-rural development [1] Group 2: Economic Development and Market Environment - The development of various ownership economies is crucial for supporting high-quality economic growth, with a focus on effective market and proactive government collaboration [2] - The favorable business environment in Guangdong is expected to enhance the development of various ownership economies, providing broader opportunities for local businesses [2] Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The speech indicates a clear direction for private technology enterprises, emphasizing the need for collaboration in a fair competitive environment to expand their development space [3] - Companies like Aobo Zhongguang are positioned to leverage new technological revolutions and industrial transformations, aiming for high-end positions in global supply chains [3][5] Group 4: Infrastructure and Transportation - Guangdong's transportation infrastructure is set to expand significantly during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on enhancing connectivity and building a sustainable transportation system [4] - The development of rural roads is seen as a critical component for promoting regional coordination and breaking down urban-rural divides [4] Group 5: Integration of Technology and Industry - The integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation is essential for building a competitive modern industrial system, as stated by Xi Jinping [5] - Companies like Ligon Industrial are focusing on advancing their technology and establishing a robust ecosystem in the robotics sector to enhance global competitiveness [6] Group 6: Artificial Intelligence Development - The speech outlines a clear path for the development of artificial intelligence in Guangdong, leveraging rich industry scenarios and supportive policies to enhance productivity [7] Group 7: Open Economy and Global Integration - Expanding high-level openness is deemed necessary for advancing modernization, with a focus on deepening cooperation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [8] - The establishment of a comprehensive service base for Chinese enterprises "going global" is a key task for Guangdong, facilitating investment and risk management [9] Group 8: Industry Transformation and Upgrading - Companies in Guangdong are actively pursuing transformation towards green, intelligent, and high-end production, contributing to local industry development [10]