2026 年 1 月 14 日 总量研究 出口逆势破局，继续看好 2026 年表现 ——2025 年 12 月进出口数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周可 执业证书编号：S0930524120001 021-52523677 zhouke@ebscn.com 相关研报 11 月的出口高增速可持续吗？——2025 年 11 月进出口数据点评（2025-12-08） 高基数效应拖累出口同比增速——2025 年 10 月进出口数据点评（2025-11-07） 为何 9 月出口增速超预期？——2025 年 9 月 进出口数据点评（2025-10-14） 我国对非美出口的驱动力是什么？——2025 年 8 月进出口数据点评（2025-09-09） 新兴市场支撑出口作用进一步显现——2025 年 7 月进出口数据点评（2025-08-07） 6 月出口强劲，下半年怎么看？——2025 年 6 月进出口数据点评（2025-07-15） 出口增速为何回落？——2025年5月进出口 数据点评（2025-06-09 ...

Core Insights - Egypt is intensifying efforts to attract Chinese investment in key industrial and technological sectors to enhance local manufacturing and high-value industries, aiming to boost exports to regional and global markets [1][2] - The first China-Egypt Investment Forum in Cairo attracted over 200 companies, providing a platform for direct communication and exploration of investment opportunities between Chinese and Egyptian enterprises [1] - Egypt's strategic partnership with China is highlighted through various economic projects, including the construction of the new administrative capital's central business district and the Ramadan 10th City light rail [1] Investment Environment - Attracting foreign investment is crucial for Egypt's economic development, with ongoing improvements in the investment environment, including enhanced regulatory stability, transparency, and digitalization of business processes [2] - Egypt's unique appeal for foreign investment includes its advantageous geographical location at the crossroads of Asia, Africa, and Europe, a young and low-cost labor force, and trade agreements facilitating access to European, American, and African markets [2] - The Egyptian government is focusing on sectors such as labor-intensive industries, automotive manufacturing, energy storage, engineering, new energy construction, and photovoltaic panel production to attract more Chinese investments [2] Bilateral Relations - The year 2026 marks the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Egypt, with expectations for a new phase of cooperation that benefits both nations [3]

新华财经开罗12月12日电 埃及投资和外贸部长哈桑·哈提卜近日在开罗接受新华社记者采访时表示，埃 及在关键工业和技术领域加大吸引中国投资力度，以加强埃及本土制造业和高附加值产业，并促进埃及 对区域和全球市场的出口，希望更多的中国企业投资埃及。 哈提卜不久前出席了在开罗举行的首届中埃投资论坛。首届中埃投资论坛11月上旬在开罗举行，吸引 200多家中埃企业参加。论坛旨在搭建对接交流平台，共同挖掘投资合作新增长点。 "这个活动让两国企业有机会面对面交流，并探讨合作机遇。"哈提卜说，埃中两国合作建立在"战略性 和历史性伙伴关系"的基础上，中国已成为埃及最重要的发展伙伴之一。 吸引外资对埃及发展经济尤为重要，当前埃及正努力改善投资环境。哈提卜表示，埃及政府正在改善监 管政策的稳定性、透明度，推动业务流程的数字化、简洁化，扩大私营部门参与度，以提升自身竞争 力。哈提卜特别强调了埃及在吸引外资方面的独特优势：地处亚非欧三大洲交汇处的优越地理位置，年 轻且低成本的劳动力，以及使埃及产品可方便进入欧美非市场的贸易协定。 中国是埃及吸引外资的重点国家之一。哈提卜说，埃及期盼中国企业在劳动密集型产业、汽车及零部件 制造业、储能、工 ...

Group 1: Export Performance - In November, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding the expected 3.8% and rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1%[1] - The month-on-month export growth in November was 8.2%, higher than the historical average of 5.6% over the past five years[1] - Cumulative exports from January to November showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, slightly up from 5.3% in October[1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Exports in the machinery and electronics sector grew by 7.9% year-on-year from January to November, contributing 4.7 percentage points to overall export growth[2] - The "three major machinery and electronics" products (cars, ships, integrated circuits) saw export growth rates exceeding 15%[2] - Labor-intensive products experienced a decline of -4.3% year-on-year from January to November, negatively impacting overall export growth by 0.7 percentage points[2] Group 3: Regional Insights - Exports to emerging markets increased by 11.1% year-on-year from January to November, contributing 5.2 percentage points to overall export growth[3] - Exports to the United States fell by -18.9% year-on-year, dragging down overall export growth by 2.8 percentage points[3] - The share of exports to the U.S. decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 11.3%, while ASEAN's share increased by 1.1 percentage points to 17.5%[3] Group 4: Future Outlook - December's export growth may face adjustment pressure due to a higher base, with projections suggesting a year-on-year decline to the 3%-4% range[4] - Leading indicators suggest a stable external demand environment, with potential support from the electronics supply chain for continued growth[4] - The cumulative effects of monetary easing are expected to stabilize external demand and support resilient export performance over the next six months to a year[4]

Core Viewpoint - In November, China's export growth exceeded expectations and previous values, primarily driven by strong resilience in exports to non-US regions, with significant contributions from the automotive, semiconductor, and machinery sectors. The drag from labor-intensive products on overall exports has diminished [1] Export Analysis - The export growth in November is attributed to robust performance in non-US markets, indicating a resilient demand [1] - Key sectors contributing to export growth include the automotive industry, semiconductor industry, and machinery and transportation equipment [1] - The overall export growth for the year is projected to reach approximately 5.3%, supported by a strong fundamental outlook for next year [1] Import Analysis - In contrast, import growth in November fell below expectations, potentially linked to a decline in manufacturing sector activity [1] - Notable increases in import volumes were observed for bulk commodities such as iron ore, copper, and natural gas, while imports of crude oil and coal saw a decrease in growth rates [1]

Group 1: Export Performance - In November 2025, China's exports reached $330.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, significantly higher than the expected 3.0%[2] - The increase in export growth is attributed to the fading high base effect and strong overseas demand, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles[3] - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America showed notable increases, while exports to the US slightly declined by 28.6%[5] Group 2: Import Trends - November 2025 imports totaled $218.67 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, up from 1.0% in October[2] - The rise in imports is driven by robust export-related demand for intermediate goods and a low base effect from the previous year[18] - Key imports such as copper and iron ore saw significant growth, with copper imports increasing by 35.3% and iron ore by 15.9%[18] Group 3: Future Outlook - December's export growth may face challenges from high base effects, but optimism remains for overseas demand in 2026 due to global fiscal expansion and improved US-China trade relations[21] - The expected decrease in the fentanyl tariff rate from 20% to 10% is anticipated to narrow the year-on-year decline in exports to the US[21] - Continued strong demand for key mineral resources from Africa is expected to support capital goods exports from China[21]

Core Insights - The total value of goods trade imports and exports in Shenyang reached 114.78 billion RMB in the first ten months of this year, with exports hitting a record high of 53.77 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [1][3] Group 1: Trade Performance - Shenyang's foreign trade has shown steady progress despite pressures, with a significant narrowing of the import decline by 2 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [3] - General trade, characterized by greater autonomy, dominates the trade structure, accounting for over 80% of the total import and export value [3] - Private enterprises exhibited remarkable growth with a year-on-year increase of 36.2% in imports and exports, contributing significantly to overall growth alongside state-owned enterprises, which grew by 14.7% [3] Group 2: Trade Partners and Markets - Shenyang's trade partners have become more diverse, with stable growth in trade with ASEAN countries, Belt and Road Initiative countries, and RCEP partners [5] - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 56 billion RMB, growing by 4.6%, while trade with RCEP partners amounted to 20.12 billion RMB, increasing by 8% [5] Group 3: Export Products - Electromechanical products remain the mainstay of exports, with electrical equipment exports surging by 39.7% and automotive parts also showing growth [6] - Labor-intensive products have emerged as a surprising contributor to export growth, with an increase of 86.4% [6] - In imports, while overall imports of electromechanical products declined, there was a double-digit growth in imports of agricultural products and pharmaceuticals, reflecting the rising domestic market demand [6]

Core Insights - Shanghai's import and export activities have shown robust growth in the first ten months of the year, with a total of 3.71 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, surpassing the national average growth rate by 1.6 percentage points [1] - Exports reached 1.64 trillion yuan, growing by 10.5%, while imports totaled 2.07 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.3% [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - Shanghai has experienced continuous growth in both imports and exports for seven consecutive months since April [1] - In October alone, the total import and export value was 367.98 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.1%, with exports at 161.53 billion yuan (up 3.5%) and imports at 206.45 billion yuan (up 2.8%) [1] Group 2: Market Diversification - Shanghai has actively expanded its market reach, with significant trade volumes to emerging markets: ASEAN (530.31 billion yuan, up 12.6%), the Middle East (133.36 billion yuan, up 19.7%), and Africa (122.22 billion yuan, up 26.8%) [1] - Trade with major BRICS countries also showed positive growth, with exports and imports to Brazil and India reaching 92.35 billion yuan (up 7.8%) and 81.34 billion yuan (up 31.6%), respectively [1] Group 3: Product Export Trends - The "new three samples" products from Shanghai saw cumulative exports of 131.43 billion yuan, increasing by 11.7%, with a strong growth momentum in the last six months [2] - Notably, green shipping equipment exports surged by 115%, with liquid cargo ship exports amounting to 27.46 billion yuan [2] - Labor-intensive products also maintained stable growth, with exports totaling 164.57 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.9% increase [2] Group 4: Import Dynamics - The import of metal ores and unrefined copper and copper products reached 177.41 billion yuan and 50.67 billion yuan, growing by 8.6% and 17.2%, respectively [2] - High-tech product imports showed significant growth, with semiconductor manufacturing equipment, computers and components, and aircraft and parts increasing by 29.6%, 18.3%, 92.4%, and 41.5%, respectively [2] - Consumer goods imports also performed well, with dairy products, fresh and dried fruits, and beef increasing by 16.2%, 15.3%, and 10.8%, indicating a gradual release of domestic consumption vitality [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese economy, focusing on the impact of currency exchange rates, particularly the renminbi (RMB), on exports and monetary policy [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export Surplus Accumulation**: China's export surplus has accelerated, attributed to price differences between China and the US, as well as other countries. This trend reflects a long-term shift in competitiveness due to China's low inflation amidst global inflation [1][2]. - **Increase in Corporate Foreign Exchange Settlement**: There has been a significant increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement surplus, indicating a shift from hoarding US dollars to converting them into RMB assets. This trend may lead to upward pressure on the RMB and requires the central bank to consider increasing monetary supply to meet market demand [1][3]. - **RMB Appreciation and Economic Transition**: RMB appreciation plays a crucial role in China's economic transition. Historical examples from Japan and South Korea suggest that currency appreciation can indicate successful economic transformation. High-tech industries may benefit, while labor-intensive sectors could face challenges [1][5]. - **Impact on Domestic Demand and Prices**: RMB appreciation has complex effects on domestic demand and prices. It may lower import prices while simultaneously increasing domestic prices for goods, leading to a dual effect on inflation [3][9]. - **Central Bank's Monetary Policy Strategy**: The central bank's strategy has evolved through different market phases, focusing on nominal GDP growth and balancing monetary supply with market changes. The current phase of RMB appreciation presents a dilemma between supporting exports and allowing natural currency appreciation [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Shift in Corporate Behavior**: The current trend of increasing foreign exchange settlements suggests a growing confidence among enterprises in the RMB, which could indicate a long-term shift in currency dynamics [6]. - **International and Domestic Environment Changes**: The changing international landscape, including US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar, alongside rising domestic asset returns, influences corporate preferences for holding RMB assets [7][8]. - **Future Monetary Policy Predictions**: Depending on nominal GDP trends, two scenarios for monetary policy and their impact on the bond market can be anticipated for 2026. A rebound in nominal GDP may lead to tighter monetary policy, while continued low GDP may necessitate more accommodative measures [12][13].

Core Insights - Shanghai's import and export value increased by 5.2% year-on-year in the first ten months of this year, reaching 3.71 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Exports amounted to 1.64 trillion yuan, growing by 10.5%, while imports reached 2.07 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.3% [1] - In October alone, the total import and export value was 367.98 billion yuan, marking a 3.1% increase [1] Export Performance - The export of "new three items" including electric passenger vehicles, solar cells, and lithium batteries totaled 131.43 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7% [2] - Green shipping equipment exports, particularly liquid cargo ships, saw a remarkable growth of 115%, amounting to 27.46 billion yuan [2] - Labor-intensive products also showed stable growth, with exports reaching 164.57 billion yuan, up by 2.9% [2] Import Performance - Key imports included metal ores and unrefined copper, which totaled 177.41 billion yuan and 50.67 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 8.6% and 17.2% [2] - High-tech product imports experienced significant growth, with semiconductor manufacturing equipment, computers and components, and aircraft and parts increasing by 29.6%, 18.3%, and 92.4% respectively [2] - Consumer goods imports showed positive trends, with dairy products, fresh and dried fruits, and beef increasing by 16.2%, 15.3%, and 10.8% respectively, indicating a gradual release of domestic consumption vitality [2]