Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's low-carbon development strategy remains steadfast, with expectations for a comprehensive upgrade of the carbon reduction "toolbox" centered on carbon markets and green certificate markets, which will drive structural adjustments across multiple industries [2][3]. Group 1: Carbon Market Insights - The carbon market in China is set to undergo "capacity expansion + quota allocation" reforms, with an expected increase in carbon emissions coverage to 77% by 2030, leading to a long-term rise in carbon prices to 80-90 yuan per ton [4]. - The anticipated carbon market supply from CCER methodologies could reach 480-750 million tons by 2030, enhancing the market's overall supply [4]. - The carbon price increase is expected to facilitate the elimination of outdated production capacity in emission-intensive industries, providing competitive advantages to green enterprises [4]. Group 2: Green Certificate Market Dynamics - The green certificate market currently faces downward price pressure due to oversupply, but improvements in supply-demand dynamics are expected, with prices projected to rise to 6-6.5 yuan per certificate by 2026 [5]. - The transition from "certificate and electricity separation" to "certificate and electricity integration" is anticipated, driven by domestic demand for green electricity and international policies like CBAM [5]. - High green electricity consumption ratio enterprises will gain a first-mover advantage, particularly those located in regions with abundant renewable energy [5]. Group 3: Product Carbon Footprint Management - The concept of product carbon footprint management is emerging as a new paradigm in corporate carbon management, aimed at enhancing corporate "green competitiveness" [6]. - The establishment of carbon footprint accounting standards and certification systems is underway, which will benefit exporting companies and those in raw materials and long supply chains [6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The upgrade of the carbon reduction toolbox is expected to create investment opportunities in green sectors, such as sustainable aviation fuel and green electricity direct connection industries [7]. - Low-carbon enterprises in high-emission sectors, such as steel, will have cost advantages and profit potential in the carbon market, while data centers and aluminum smelting companies with high green electricity consumption ratios will face lower transition risks [7]. - Companies with higher product carbon footprint management levels in long supply chains and exporting industries will exhibit greater resilience and "green competitiveness" [7].

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates a shift from "disconnection between stocks and bonds" to "stocks and bonds being sourced from the same origin," highlighting a year where stock performance outpaced bonds, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 3351 points at the end of the previous year to around 4000 points by the end of October 2025 [7] - The report discusses the AI wave, emphasizing that it is not a repeat of the 2000 internet bubble, as the current market is driven by profitable "cash cow" companies rather than speculative stocks [9][10] Industry and Company Insights - The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry is receiving a boost from the EU's announcement of a €3.3 billion investment plan to support decarbonization in aviation and shipping, with a projected SAF demand of 358 million tons by 2050 [10][11] - The report highlights the strong performance of the consumer services sector, particularly in Hainan, where duty-free shopping saw a 35% year-on-year increase following the implementation of new policies [12] - New Industry (300832.SZ) reported a revenue increase of 0.39% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable improvement in overseas business gross margins surpassing domestic levels [19][20] - Xiangyu Medical (688626.SH) showed a revenue growth of 6.00% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, although net profit faced pressure due to increased R&D and marketing investments [23][24] - The report on Steady Medical (300888.SZ) indicates a 30.1% year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a strong performance in both medical consumables and health consumer products [26][27] Financial Engineering - The financial engineering report notes that 5401 A-share companies disclosed their Q3 2025 financial results, with many analysts highlighting significant earnings surprises in their assessments [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, indicating expected performance above the market average [2][29]. Core Insights - The European Union (EU) has launched a €3.3 billion investment plan to support the decarbonization of the aviation and shipping sectors, focusing on the development of renewable and low-carbon fuel production systems [3][10]. - The demand for SAF is primarily driven by policy initiatives, with the EU aiming for a 2% blending target by 2025 and a long-term goal of 70% by 2050. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects SAF demand to reach 358 million tons by 2050, indicating significant growth potential [4][6]. - The EU's ambitious decarbonization goals require an estimated €100 billion investment by 2035 to meet future SAF demand, with the recent investment plan signaling a commitment to stabilize investor confidence and expand the renewable fuel production and usage [4][10][14]. Summary by Sections Investment and Policy Framework - The EU's Sustainable Transport Investment Plan (STIP) outlines a roadmap for promoting the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels, aiming for a 90% reduction in transport-related carbon emissions by 2050 [10][14]. - The plan includes specific investment allocations, such as €2 billion for developing sustainable alternative fuels and €1.53 billion for synthetic aviation fuels [14][16]. Market Dynamics - SAF prices have surged due to high production costs compared to traditional jet fuel, with the price reaching $2,650 per ton as of November 10, 2023, a 47.22% increase from the beginning of the year [4][18]. - The scarcity of SAF raw materials, such as used cooking oil (UCO), is expected to sustain high market demand and prices [4][18]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies like Jiaao Environmental and Zhuoyue New Energy, which are positioned as leaders in the SAF market with significant production capacities [5][23]. Jiaao Environmental has a SAF production capacity of 500,000 tons and has received export licenses, while Zhuoyue New Energy is expanding its biodiesel and SAF production capabilities [5][23].

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) projects in China, indicating a significant increase in planned capacity and the need for export to manage production levels [3][5][6]. Industry Overview - Since the beginning of 2025, 47 new SAF projects have been planned, surpassing the total number of publicly announced projects before 2024, leading to a total planned capacity of over 13.28 million tons per year [3][6]. - As of September 2025, the SAF project startup rate exceeds 25%, with a built capacity of 1.156 million tons per year [4][9]. - China has four factories with SAF export licenses, totaling approximately 1.2 million tons of SAF export quotas [5][18]. Project Development - The SAF industry in China is characterized by a "supply-first, demand-abroad" model, indicating that while production capacity is expanding, domestic demand needs to be stimulated [5]. - There are currently 16 ongoing projects and 10 completed projects, with a startup rate exceeding 25% [9][12]. - The SAF projects are primarily concentrated in provinces such as Jiangsu, Hebei, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, and Shandong, with significant progress in several other provinces [12]. Technological and Economic Factors - The HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) route remains dominant due to its maturity and the established collection chain for used cooking oil (UCO) in China, despite rising UCO prices impacting production costs [15]. - New technologies are being explored, with successful tests of the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis SAF project and contracts signed for Honeywell's MTJ technology, indicating a diversification of technological approaches [15]. Policy and Support - The SAF sector has seen increased policy support, including the inclusion of the entire SAF supply chain in the 2025 Green Finance Support Project Directory, allowing companies to apply for low-cost green loans [18]. - Significant investments and standards have been introduced, such as the first SAF-specific policy in Chengdu and the release of industry standards for quantifying SAF's carbon footprint [18]. - The export sector has also seen advancements, with the issuance of a second batch of SAF export licenses, increasing the number of licensed factories to four [18]. Company Quotas - The following companies have received SAF export quotas: - Lianyungang Jiaao New Energy Co., Ltd.: 372,400 tons [19] - Yigao Environmental Energy Technology (Zhangjiagang) Co., Ltd.: 260,000-300,000 tons [19] - Shandong Haike Chemical Co., Ltd.: 370,000 tons [19] - Shandong Sanju Bioenergy Co., Ltd.: 158,000 tons [19]

Core Insights - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to guide this pillar industry of the national economy to maintain reasonable growth while achieving high-quality development, focusing on "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and promoting innovation" [1][17][18] - The plan sets a target for an average annual growth of over 5% in industry value added from 2025 to 2026, while also pursuing improvements in economic efficiency and innovation capabilities [1][17] Industry Analysis Petrochemical Industry - The plan is expected to promote the elimination of outdated production capacity and lead to healthier industry development, optimizing the supply side of the chemical industry [2][18] - The plan emphasizes the need to strengthen the planning and layout of major petrochemical and modern coal chemical projects, strictly control new refining capacity, and reasonably determine the scale and pace of new ethylene and paraxylene capacity [2][18] Fertilizer Industry - The plan aims to strengthen raw material supply security and stabilize production foundations for the fertilizer industry, requiring long-term agreements with suppliers of coal, phosphate rock, and natural gas [19] - The plan also encourages the optimization of product structure and the development of new fertilizers [19] Chemical Products Pricing - As of September 28, 2025, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) was reported at 3969 points, down 8.4% from January 2, 2025 [20] - The manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 49.4%, indicating limited improvement in the economic environment, with the production index at 50.8% [20] Investment Recommendations Potash Fertilizer - The global potash fertilizer industry is characterized by oligopoly, with a tight supply-demand balance, and prices are expected to remain high [21] - The company "Yaqi International" is highlighted for its significant potash resources and ongoing capacity expansion, with a projected production capacity of 5 million tons by 2025 [21] Pesticides - The pesticide industry is expected to see a recovery in prices due to increased demand from South America and limited export growth from India and the US [22] - "Lier Chemical" is recommended as a leading company in the chlorinated pyridine herbicide and glyphosate sectors [22] Fluorochemicals - The fluorochemical sector is anticipated to benefit from the implementation of quota systems for refrigerants starting in 2024, with a focus on the long-term price increase of refrigerants [23] - Companies such as "Juhua Co., Ltd." and "Dongyue Group" are recommended for their strong market positions in refrigerants and fluorinated liquids [23] Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) - The European Union's mandatory addition of 2% SAF in 2025 is expected to drive up prices for bio-jet fuel products, with "Zhuoyue New Energy" recommended for its competitive advantages in production capacity [24][9]

Core Insights - The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry is experiencing significant growth opportunities due to the global carbon neutrality trend, despite facing challenges such as high costs, limited raw material supply, and the need for improved standards [2][3]. Industry Developments - The establishment of the China Sustainable Aviation Fuel Industry Alliance and the launch of the first SAF industry-specific policy in Chengdu highlight the growing support for SAF development [2]. - Recent projects, such as the SAF raw material production and biomass energy research base in Chengdu and the full production of the Anhui Yisheng biodiesel and SAF project, indicate a proactive approach to expanding SAF capabilities [2]. Market Potential - SAF can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 69% to 90% compared to traditional fuels, making it a viable path for the aviation industry's decarbonization [3]. - The demand for SAF in China is projected to reach 1.3 to 1.5 million tons by 2030, accounting for 2% to 3% of aviation fuel demand [4]. Challenges - The high cost of SAF, which is 2 to 7 times that of fossil-based jet fuel, remains the biggest challenge for the industry [5]. - The current production cost of SAF using HEFA technology ranges from 15,000 to 31,000 yuan per ton, significantly higher than traditional jet fuel prices [5]. - The collection rate of waste oils is below 50%, leading to potential raw material supply issues, with only 35,000 tons of SAF capacity currently built compared to 3.28 million tons planned [5]. Strategic Recommendations - Strengthening policy guidance and support at the national level is essential, including the establishment of a sustainable standard certification system and a clear roadmap for carbon reduction in the aviation sector [7]. - Enhancing raw material collection and management systems for waste oils and agricultural residues is crucial for ensuring a stable supply [7]. - Increasing investment in core SAF technology research and promoting collaboration between research institutions and enterprises can improve production efficiency and reduce costs [7][8]. Collaborative Efforts - The SAF industry should focus on establishing a stable supply chain through collaboration among raw material suppliers, producers, and end-users [8]. - The geographical layout of SAF production should consider proximity to raw material sources and consumption areas, particularly in regions like East China and Sichuan-Chongqing [8].

目前，新加坡在政策层面被视为亚洲地区SAF的标杆，其推行的旅客燃油附加费机制为SAF生产商提供 了可预测的需求信号。预计印度、马来西亚、印度尼西亚及韩国也将从2027年起推出SAF强制掺混配 额，这将为市场提供明确的需求预期，吸引新项目投资。国泰航空SAF供应保障经理娜塔莎·杨则提 醒，多数亚洲市场尚未制定2030年后的SAF掺混目标。欧洲已明确2040年前SAF掺混比例的逐步提升路 径，亚洲也需要类似的长期清晰规划，才能吸引投资并降低技术研发风险。 原料与物流方面，供应链溯源与基础设施缺口已成SAF发展的主要障碍。嘉宾们表示，亚洲丰富的农业 废弃物与未充分利用的种植园资源，本可支撑SAF大规模生产，但原料供应链溯源与小农户参与度仍是 关键难题。娜塔莎·杨解释道："认证体系与行业教育至关重要，只有这样才能确保原料符合国际航空碳 抵消与减排计划(CORSIA)等框架的核查标准，实现商业价值转化。" 此外，地区物流体系也存在明显瓶颈。娜塔莎·杨指出："亚洲缺乏像欧美那样完善的管道、驳船及铁路 运输网络。若不加大投资，推动生产基地向原料产地与需求中心靠近，随着产能扩张，物流成本上升将 削弱SAF的市场竞争力。" 政 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, indicating expected performance above the market average [2][7]. Core Insights - The demand for SAF is primarily driven by policy initiatives, particularly in the EU, which mandates a 2% blending ratio by 2025, with a long-term goal of 70% by 2050. The IATA projects that SAF demand could reach 358 million tons by 2050, indicating significant growth potential [3][11]. - There is a notable supply-demand gap in the European SAF market, with consumption expected to reach 1.9 million tons this year against a production capacity of only 1 million tons. This gap is likely to be filled by producers in the Asia-Pacific region, including China, which has the potential to significantly increase its SAF production capacity [3][13]. - The high cost of SAF compared to traditional jet fuel has led to a general reluctance among airlines to adopt it. However, the EU's stringent blending requirements are pushing airlines to increase their SAF procurement, resulting in a rapid price increase for SAF [4][18]. - The report recommends investing in "Zhuoyue New Energy" and related SAF companies, highlighting Zhuoyue as a leading domestic biodiesel producer with significant SAF production capacity planned [4][26]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - As of September 17, the price of high-end SAF in China reached $2,480 per ton, a 55% increase from $1,800 per ton at the beginning of the year. This price surge is attributed to the scarcity of SAF raw materials and the unchanged mandatory blending targets [3][21]. - The European market is experiencing a significant increase in SAF consumption, with a projected 216% year-on-year growth, while the production capacity remains limited [13][18]. Policy Framework - The EU has established comprehensive SAF application targets and carbon reduction goals, with regulations mandating a 2% SAF blend starting in 2025 and a long-term goal of 70% by 2050 [5][10]. - Other countries, including the UK, the US, Japan, and South Korea, are also implementing policies to promote SAF usage, with specific blending targets set for the coming years [6][8][9]. Production Capacity - China is expected to play a crucial role in filling the SAF production gap in Europe, with domestic companies planning to establish over 1 million tons of SAF production capacity by the end of 2024 [3][13]. - The report outlines various projects across China, detailing planned and existing SAF production capacities, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [14][17].

Core Viewpoint - Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is identified as a key driver for the aviation industry's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, expected to contribute 65% of carbon reduction efforts [1] Industry Overview - The global SAF production capacity is significantly lacking, requiring a 60-fold expansion within 25 years to meet a trillion RMB market demand [2] - Current SAF production processes are primarily based on the HEFA route, with 11 SAF production processes certified by ASTM, and HEFA being the only technology currently used for large-scale commercial SAF production [1][3] Policy Environment - Multiple countries, including the EU, UK, and the US, have implemented or are planning to implement mandatory blending policies for SAF, which will drive demand [2] - China is set to launch pilot SAF blending in 2024, indicating a broad future development space for the SAF industry in the country [2] Production and Supply Chain - The upstream raw materials for SAF include waste cooking oils, agricultural and forestry waste, municipal solid waste, and industrial emissions [1] - The production process involves technology licensing and construction phases, with foreign companies currently dominating the technology supply [1][3] - Domestic companies like Jianlong Micro-Nano are focusing on breakthroughs in heterogeneous catalysis for SAF production [1] Economic Factors - The profitability of HEFA-based SAF production is heavily influenced by raw material costs, with companies that can secure raw materials at lower prices likely to enhance their profitability [3] - The G+FT, AtJ, and PtL processes may increase SAF prices in the short term due to high production costs, but PtL has the greatest potential for cost reduction in the long term [3]

Core Points - Zhejiang Jiaao Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Jiaao Environmental") is planning to increase capital and introduce investors through its subsidiary Lianyungang Jiaao New Energy Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Lianyungang Jiaao") [1] - China Aviation Oil Group Investment Co., Ltd. (referred to as "China Aviation Oil") intends to invest 261,444,444 RMB to acquire new registered capital of the target company [1][6] - After the capital increase, the registered capital of the target company will rise from 2,353,000,000 RMB to 2,614,444,444 RMB [2][6] Summary by Sections Capital Increase Details - The existing shareholders of the target company will waive their preemptive rights for this capital increase, which is in compliance with relevant laws and regulations [2][5] - The capital increase aims to enhance the capital strength of the target company and promote the development of new projects [5] Shareholding Structure Post-Investment - After the capital increase, the shareholding structure will change, with Jiaao Environmental's stake decreasing from 39.10% to 35.19%, and China Aviation Oil acquiring a 10% stake [7] - The updated shareholding percentages post-capital increase are as follows: - Jiaao Environmental: 35.19% - Jiaao Fund: 22.95% - Jiaao Green: 18.36% - BP Global Investments: 13.50% - China Aviation Oil: 10.00% [7] Approval and Compliance - The capital increase has been approved by the sixth board of directors of the company and does not require submission to the shareholders' meeting for further approval [4][8] - This capital increase does not constitute a major asset restructuring as defined by the relevant regulations [3][8] Company and Financial Information - Lianyungang Jiaao has total assets of 404,225.53 million RMB and total liabilities of 281,983.61 million RMB as of March 31, 2025 [11] - The company reported a net profit of 167.66 million RMB for the same period [11]