社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 21 日 强于大市 社会服务行业双周报 " 内卷式 " 餐饮外卖竞争拉低社零表现，暑期出 行市场有望保持高景气 前两交易周（2025.7.7-2025.7.18）社会服务板块上涨 3.18%，在申万一级 31 个行业排名中位列第 9。社会服务板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.26pct。当前餐饮 市场外卖平台补贴"内卷式"竞争已对 6 月餐饮社零造成一定负面影响， "内卷式"竞争尚待缓解。此外，暑期文旅出行市场有望保持高景气度运 行，相关产业链企业经营情况值得期待，我们维持行业 强于大市 评级。 市场回顾&行业动态数据 双周要闻 投资建议 入境免签政策作用显著，暑期文旅出行市场有望保持高景气度运行。我 们建议关注后续业绩增长确定性强的出行链及产业相关公司：黄山旅 游、丽江股份、宋城演艺、岭南控股、众信旅游、中青旅、海昌海洋公 园、天目湖、长白山等；受益于商旅客流复苏以及疫后市占率提高的连 锁酒店品牌君亭酒店、锦江酒店、首旅酒店等；受益于促就业政策推动 的科锐国际；跨境游市场恢复有望推动机场免税的恢复和市内免税新政 加速推出，建议关注中国中免、王府井 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading cultural tourism service provider, focusing on destination investment and operation, with a robust expansion of its business footprint [1][4]. - The tourism industry is experiencing a recovery driven by policy support, with significant growth in both domestic and inbound tourism expected [2][29]. - The company has established three major international tourism destination systems, achieving breakthroughs in light asset operations [3][4]. Company Overview - The company, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, was listed in 2017 and has since acquired several high-quality scenic assets, forming a comprehensive tourism service model that includes destination resorts, travel services, cultural consumption, and digital technology [1][14]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, with a net profit of 147 million yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 3.1% [1][4]. Industry Insights - Domestic tourism is expected to see 5.62 billion visitors in 2024, a 14.9% increase year-on-year, with tourism revenue reaching 5.8 trillion yuan, up 17.0% [2][29]. - Inbound tourism is projected to recover significantly, with 132 million visitors anticipated in 2024, marking a 60.9% increase from the previous year [2][38]. - The report highlights the ongoing policy initiatives aimed at bolstering the tourism sector, which is recognized as a strategic pillar of the national economy [29][41]. Business Development - The company has successfully integrated various scenic assets through acquisitions, enhancing its operational capabilities and expanding its market presence [3][4]. - The establishment of three major tourism areas—Daxiangxi, Dahuangshan, and Dananling—demonstrates the company's strategic focus on high-potential regions [3][4]. - The company has developed a comprehensive operational model that includes light asset management for eight scenic spots, providing full-chain operational services [1][3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 383 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][5]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.3x, 17.6x, and 15.6x respectively, indicating potential for valuation improvement [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an initial coverage date of July 8, 2025 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic OTA market, particularly benefiting from the growth in lower-tier markets and the overall tourism boom. It is backed by major shareholders Tencent and Trip.com, which provide significant advantages in customer acquisition and supply chain resources [4][6][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formed from the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, is a top-tier one-stop travel service platform in China, successfully ranking among the top three in the OTA industry [17]. Shareholding Structure - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with major shareholders Tencent and Trip.com holding 24.07% and 20.46% respectively, facilitating deep collaboration in business operations [18][21]. Business Breakdown - The core OTA business includes transportation and accommodation bookings, contributing approximately 50% and 30% of revenue respectively. The company is expanding into hotel management and vacation services, enhancing its competitive edge [23]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong recovery post-pandemic, with revenues of RMB 11.896 billion in 2023 and projected growth to RMB 19.624 billion by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 80.7% and 45.8% respectively [8][31]. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 27.07 billion in 2025 [6]. OTA Industry Insights - The online travel market in China is projected to exceed RMB 1 trillion in 2024, with a significant increase in online transaction rates, indicating a robust recovery and growth potential in the sector [39][46]. Competitive Landscape - The OTA market is characterized by a high concentration of major players, with Trip.com leading the market share. The competitive dynamics are stable, with companies leveraging unique strengths to capture different market segments [49][52]. Pricing Power - The pricing power of the company is influenced by the concentration of upstream resources, particularly in transportation and accommodation sectors, which affects commission rates and overall profitability [56][59].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [52]. Core Insights - The social services sector has seen a 5.39% increase in the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.86 percentage points, ranking 12th among 31 sectors [1][12]. - The summer travel season has begun, with a slight decrease in air travel costs year-on-year, suggesting positive operational performance for travel-related companies during the peak season [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The social services sector's performance in the last two weeks (June 23 - July 4, 2025) shows a 5.39% increase, ranking 12th among 31 sectors [12]. - The sub-sectors within social services, including education (+11.42%) and professional services (+4.51%), all experienced growth [16]. 2. Industry Dynamics and Company News - The civil aviation sector is expected to handle 150 million passengers during the summer travel period, with a daily average of over 2.4 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [1][4]. - The "Su Super" sports events have significantly boosted local consumption, with hotel occupancy rates increasing by 20%-30% and related retail spending rising by 15%-25% [1][4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong growth potential in the travel chain and related industries include Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [4]. - The recovery of business travel and increased market share for hotel brands such as Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel are highlighted as key investment opportunities [4]. 4. Travel Data Tracking - Domestic travel has largely recovered post-pandemic, with international travel policies gradually easing, indicating a positive trend for the travel industry [39][40].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [4][26]. Core Insights - Financial policies are expected to boost service consumption, with a promising outlook for summer tourism. The combination of seasonal demand, policy support, and AI empowerment is anticipated to drive the tourism market [8][21]. - The summer tourism peak is projected to occur in early July, with family and child travelers making up a significant portion of the demand. The trend of off-peak travel is also highlighted, with specific regions showing increased hotel booking activity [2][20]. Market Performance Summary - The social service sector index experienced a weekly increase of 4.61%, ranking 8th among 31 sectors. The sub-industry performance varied, with professional services leading at 5.70% [1][9]. - Notable individual stock performances included significant gains for companies like Electric Science Institute (16.54%) and Tianmu Lake (14.09%) [1][9]. Industry News Dynamics - The report highlights various initiatives aimed at enhancing tourism experiences, such as the launch of a smart service platform in Zhejiang and promotional activities in Chongqing to attract tourists [22][23]. - The integration of AI technologies in cultural tourism is reshaping visitor experiences, with innovative applications enhancing service efficiency and customer engagement [20][21].

Group 1: Global Gas Turbine and Aerospace Engine Demand - The demand for gas turbines is expected to surge, with GE Vernova projecting a backlog of 60GW by the end of 2025, with orders signed until 2028 [3][4] - In Q1 2025, GE Vernova added 7.1GW in new gas turbine orders, a 44.9% year-on-year increase, primarily from heavy-duty gas turbine orders [3][4] - The aerospace engine market is experiencing robust demand, with Boeing reporting a net addition of 300 aircraft orders in May 2025, raising its backlog to 5943 aircraft [5][6] Group 2: High-Temperature Alloy and Chromium Salt Industry - The growth in gas turbine and aerospace engine demand is driving the need for high-temperature alloys, with domestic manufacturers poised to benefit from supply chain constraints [9][13] - Companies like Zhenhua Co. and Sry New Materials are expanding their production capabilities and reporting significant revenue growth from overseas markets [9][10] - The high-temperature alloy sector is rated as "recommended" due to the increasing demand for core components amid supply chain shifts towards China [13] Group 3: Coal Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, China's industrial raw coal production reached 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, indicating a recovery in the coal supply [15][18] - The industrial electricity generation in May 2025 showed a positive shift, with coal-fired power generation increasing by 1.2% year-on-year, reversing a previous decline [19][22] - The coal market is witnessing a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with coal prices stabilizing and inventory levels decreasing [21][23] Group 4: Real Estate and Land Market Factors - The land market's performance is influenced by five key factors, including financing environment, new housing market stability, inventory reduction, sales model changes, and land supply rules [24][27] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant recovery in the real estate market, with new housing transactions positively impacting land market activity [29][30] - The land market is entering a "dual concentration" phase, with significant activity concentrated in major cities and among top real estate firms [25][26] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - Xiaogoods City (600415.SH) is leveraging its position in Yiwu to enhance its global trade capabilities, with a projected revenue growth of 25% from 2025 to 2027 [36][39] - Huayi Group is diversifying its operations across five core business areas, reporting a revenue increase of 9.3% in 2024 [40]

截至2025年6月13日收盘，丽江股份（002033）报收于8.56元，较上周的8.71元下跌1.72%。本周，丽江 股份6月11日盘中最高价报8.83元。6月13日盘中最低价报8.55元。丽江股份当前最新总市值47.04亿元， 在旅游及景区板块市值排名13/22，在两市A股市值排名3077/5150。 本周关注点 公司公告汇总：丽江股份与玉龙雪山景区投资公司共同增资牦牛坪公司，推进索道改扩建项目 公司公告汇总 丽江股份与丽江市玉龙雪山景区投资管理有限公司共同对全资子公司丽江牦牛坪旅游索道有限公司增 资，以推进丽江玉龙雪山牦牛坪旅游索道改扩建项目。丽江股份拟以货币方式出资31,423.90万元；玉龙 雪山景区投资公司拟以非货币资产方式出资4,432.50万元、以货币方式出资15,289.69万元，合计 19,722.19万元。牦牛坪公司增资后注册资本为20,000.00万元，丽江股份出资31,423.90万元，其中计入实 收资本12,000.00万元、资本公积19,423.90万元；玉龙雪山景区投资公司出资19,722.19万元，其中计入实 收资本7,000.00万元、资本公积12,722.19万元。 截至2 ...

Group 1: Capital Expenditure Cycle Analysis - The capital expenditure (CAPEX) cycle is a dominant driver of industry cycles in China, influencing the relationship between CAPEX, price-to-book (PB) ratio, and return on equity (ROE) [4] - The CAPEX cycle is divided into three stages: Stage 1 (oversupply leads to declining ROE and poor market performance), Stage 2 (declining CAPEX results in rising free cash flow and market rebound), and Stage 3 (supply-side clearing leads to improved ROE and better market performance) [4][14][15] - The PB-ROE model indicates significant investment value in Stage 2 (low PB and improving ROE) and Stage 3 (reasonable PB and steadily rising ROE) [16] Group 2: Market and Industry Comparisons - In Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the overall capital expenditure of A-share companies (excluding finance and real estate) is contracting, while free cash flow is improving [20] - The median CAPEX/depreciation ratio for secondary industries decreased from 1.35 to 1.29, while the median free cash flow/equity ratio increased from 4.4% to 4.8% [21] - The proportion of secondary industries with free cash flow greater than 0 has significantly increased, indicating a positive trend in cash flow [21][24] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The consumer sector shows overall CAPEX contraction and slight decline in free cash flow, with CAPEX levels below market averages and free cash flow above market averages [26] - The advanced manufacturing sector also experiences CAPEX contraction, while free cash flow shows slight improvement [4][26] - Eight industries within the consumer sector are highlighted as potential investment opportunities based on supply-side improvements [4][26]

截至2025年6月6日收盘，天目湖（603136）报收于12.6元，较上周的11.4元上涨10.53%。本周，天目湖 6月5日盘中最高价报12.99元。6月3日盘中最低价报11.52元。天目湖当前最新总市值34.04亿元，在旅游 及景区板块市值排名16/22，在两市A股市值排名3929/5148。 公司公告汇总 江苏天目湖旅游股份有限公司在2025年1月10日召开的第六届董事会第十一次会议和第六届监事会第九 次会议上，审议通过了使用不超过21000万元闲置募集资金进行现金管理的议案。随后，在2025年5月15 日和5月20日，第六届董事会审计委员会第九次会议和第六届董事会第十三次会议再次审议并同意使用 不超过9000万元闲置募集资金进行现金管理，总计不超过30000万元。2025年6月3日，公司向兴业银行 股份有限公司认购了两笔结构性存款，金额分别为4800万元和4200万元，合计9000万元，产品类型为保 本浮动收益型，期限分别为26天和208天。公司确认与兴业银行无关联关系。此次用于现金管理的资金 来源于公开发行可转换公司债券所募集的资金，净额为28973.10万元，主要用于"南山小寨二期项 目"和"御水 ...

Core Viewpoints - The market in June is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with large-cap stocks likely to see a recovery. Domestic demand momentum is anticipated to improve marginally, while April's industrial profits continued to show a recovery trend but experienced a decline in both volume and price. The cost decline was the main driver of profit growth in April. PMI data for May indicates a slight recovery in domestic production demand compared to April. It is expected that growth-stabilizing policies will be implemented alongside resilient external demand, and the trend of weak inventory replenishment is likely to continue in the second quarter. However, global trade policies remain uncertain, compounded by concerns over rising US debt rates, which may pressure market sentiment in the short term. In June, various growth-stabilizing policies are expected to accelerate, maintaining a cautious and oscillating market environment. Key areas to watch for a breakthrough include developments in overseas tariffs and the implementation of domestic growth-stabilizing policies in June [4][10][12]. June Stock Recommendations - The June stock selection by the report includes: - SF Express (Transportation) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Bairen Medical (Pharmaceuticals) - Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Suochen Technology (Computers) [10][12]. Industry Summaries Transportation Industry: SF Express - SF Express reported a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a steady growth trend. The company achieved a total express volume of 3.56 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with revenue reaching 69.85 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year. The profit growth was primarily driven by the continuous improvement of the product matrix and enhanced service competitiveness. The company also focused on cost control through operational model reforms and network optimization, achieving a gross profit margin of 13.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [12][13]. Chemical Industry: Anji Technology - Anji Technology experienced rapid growth in revenue and net profit in 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by increased market coverage and new product introductions. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 58.45%, with a net profit margin of 29.08%. In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 55.70%, and the net profit margin was 30.96%. The company is seeing a steady increase in its global market share for polishing liquids, with a projected market size growth for semiconductor CMP polishing materials [14][15]. Pharmaceutical Industry: Bairen Medical - Bairen Medical reported rapid growth in revenue and profit in 2024, with significant increases in its three main business segments. The heart valve replacement and repair segment saw a year-on-year growth of 64.28%. The company is expected to maintain high growth rates in 2025, driven by the approval of its first interventional valve product, which offers significant advantages in terms of operation and safety [17][18]. Social Services Industry: Lingnan Holdings - Lingnan Holdings achieved a revenue of 4.309 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.43%, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 116.08%. The company’s travel agency operations and hotel management segments are expected to continue growing, particularly with the recovery of inbound tourism and the expansion of hotel management projects [20][21]. Food and Beverage Industry: Qingdao Beer - Qingdao Beer faced pressure on volume and price in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decline in sales volume of 7.0%. However, the company benefited from a decrease in raw material costs, leading to an improvement in gross profit margins. Future growth is anticipated as restaurant demand recovers, supported by the company's strong brand and distribution network [23][24]. Computer Industry: Suochen Technology - Suochen Technology reported a revenue of 39 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.73%. The company is focusing on enhancing its CAE software capabilities and exploring AI applications in various fields. The engineering simulation software segment has shown significant growth, contributing to an overall increase in the company's gross profit margin [25][26][27].