十张图速览全球资产脉络。 1、伦敦金现价格冲击4000点的关键点位 。国际现货黄金价格近期延续强劲上涨势头，9月底伦敦金现价格突破3800美元/盎司，再次刷新历史纪录，继续向上冲 击4000美元/盎司的整数关键点位。本轮黄金价格的迅猛上涨是由多重系统性因素和市场情绪共同推动的结果：一是美联储降息预期升温；二是地缘政治不确定 性与避险需求；三是各国央行持续购金提供坚实支撑。过去两次百年秩序重构期，1800年前后、1930年前后，都出现了10年左右的黄金激烈脉冲（3-5倍），当 下秩序重构加剧的背景下，建议关注黄金的历史性机会。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 9月全球大类资产总体表现为：全球股票（3.31%）>全球债券（0.65%）>人民币（0.13%）>大宗商品（0.05%）>美元（0.00%）> 0%。 报告摘要 2、美国政府停摆落地后美股创历史新高 。9月30日，美国国会参议院未能在联邦政府资金耗尽前通过新的临时拨款法案。美国东部时间10月1日零时起，联邦政 府时隔近七年再度"停摆"。美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The project marks a significant technological breakthrough in China's green and low-carbon transformation of oil and gas development, providing a replicable and promotable "Chinese solution" for the global heavy oil extraction sector [1][5]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project, located in the Karamay City of Xinjiang, covers an area of 150,000 square meters with a solar collection area of 51,500 square meters [3]. - It utilizes intelligent control of thousands of lightweight modular heliostats to reflect sunlight to a 113-meter high heat-absorbing tower, producing high-temperature steam at 305°C for underground injection to meet heavy oil thermal extraction needs [3][4]. Group 2: Innovative Technologies - The project innovatively uses underground steam chambers for thermal energy storage, allowing for continuous heat release during nighttime, achieving the economic and environmental goal of "zero-carbon oil extraction" [4]. - It successfully developed four pioneering technologies, including the "solar thermal-SAGD" integrated process and "mirror-furnace-control" integrated equipment, leading in six key indicators such as gas supply parameters and system reliability [5]. Group 3: Environmental Impact - The solar thermal conversion efficiency of the project is at an industry-leading level, capable of supplying 52,000 tons of high-quality superheated steam annually, replacing 3.92 million cubic meters of natural gas, and reducing carbon emissions by 8,500 tons [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an analysis of global asset performance and macroeconomic indicators, highlighting trends in various markets and potential investment opportunities. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In August, global asset performance ranked as follows: global stocks (2.45%) > global bonds (1.45%) > RMB (0.97%) > 0% > commodities (-0.77%) > USD (-2.20%) [2] - The Bloomberg Federal Reserve sentiment index has declined, which may lead to a decrease in US Treasury yields [4][11] - The 10-year government bond yield spread between France and Italy has narrowed to near zero, indicating a reassessment of fiscal and political risks in both countries [4][15] Group 2: Market Trends and Fund Manager Behavior - There is a divergence between cyclical and defensive sectors in the US stock market, with cyclical stocks outperforming despite a weak ISM manufacturing PMI [4][17] - Global fund managers have increased their allocations to emerging markets and equities while reducing exposure to pharmaceuticals, the Eurozone, and REITs [4][20] Group 3: Credit and Commodity Insights - The credit impulse index in China has been rising, which may limit the upward momentum of the USD index [4][23] - Speculative net positions in WTI crude oil futures have dropped to the lowest level since 2012, reflecting cautious market sentiment towards oil prices [4][25] - The copper-to-oil ratio has been increasing, which may positively impact the CSI 300 index, indicating stronger industrial activity in China [4][27] Group 4: Currency and Gold Market Dynamics - The RMB has appreciated significantly, reaching its highest level since November 2024, driven by easing trade tensions and strong export performance [4][33] - Since 2025, the MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF has significantly outperformed spot gold, showcasing strong momentum in gold mining stocks due to rising gold prices and improved operational efficiencies [4][36]

Core Insights - China's energy development has achieved significant breakthroughs during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, ensuring energy security for over 1.4 billion people and promoting green and low-carbon development [1][16] - The Hainan Changjiang Nuclear Power Phase II project is a major initiative, utilizing the Hualong One third-generation nuclear technology, which is a significant achievement in China's nuclear innovation [3][5] - The energy consumption in China has increased significantly, with a 1.5 times growth compared to the previous five years, and the average annual electricity consumption per capita has doubled over the past decade [7][11] Energy Production and Capacity - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," China approved the construction of 46 nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 54.5 million kilowatts, resulting in a 30% increase in both operational capacity and annual electricity generation [3][5] - The renewable energy capacity has expanded dramatically, with wind and solar power installations growing from 530 million kilowatts to 1.68 billion kilowatts, and renewable energy generation capacity now accounts for approximately 60% of total installed capacity [11][9] Technological Innovations - Significant advancements in energy technology include breakthroughs in onshore and offshore oil and gas development, as well as improvements in solar and wind energy efficiency [5][9] - The "Desert Energy" base in Tengger Desert has become a model for green energy development, with over 4.4 million solar panels contributing to a stable increase in power generation [9][11] Infrastructure and Energy Distribution - The establishment of a comprehensive energy infrastructure network has facilitated the efficient distribution of energy resources across regions, including major projects like the "West-to-East Power Transmission" and "West-to-East Gas Transmission" [15][16] - The Ningxia to Hunan ±800 kV UHVDC transmission project has been completed, enabling rapid transmission of green electricity over long distances, addressing the challenge of energy consumption in different regions [13][15] Energy Security and Self-Sufficiency - China's energy self-sufficiency rate remains stable at over 80%, which is crucial for economic security and resilience against international market fluctuations [7][11] - The government has invested significantly in rural electrification, enhancing energy supply reliability and ensuring that energy access reaches remote areas [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the achievements and developments in China's energy sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the significant growth in energy consumption, production, and renewable energy infrastructure. Group 1: Energy Consumption and Production - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's new electricity consumption is expected to exceed the annual electricity consumption of the European Union [5] - By 2024, China's total electricity generation is projected to surpass 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for one-third of global electricity generation [7] - The energy production during this period is estimated to reach approximately 5 billion tons of standard coal, representing a significant portion of global energy production [8] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The energy infrastructure network has become more comprehensive, connecting eastern and western regions and facilitating energy transfer through major projects like "West-East Electricity Transmission" and "North Coal South Transport" [12] - As of July 2023, the number of charging infrastructure units in China reached 16.696 million, ten times the number at the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," making it the largest in the world [15] Group 3: Renewable Energy Growth - The share of renewable energy generation capacity is expected to increase from 40% to around 60% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [18] - Wind and solar power installations are projected to grow significantly, with annual additions of 10 million kilowatts and 20 million kilowatts, respectively, showcasing unprecedented development speed [18] - The number of new energy patents in China accounts for over 40% of the global total, indicating strong innovation in the sector [19] Group 4: Environmental Impact - China's exports of wind and solar products have contributed to a reduction of approximately 4.1 billion tons of carbon emissions in other countries [24]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period marks significant achievements in energy development, focusing on high-quality growth, technological innovation, and the transition to a green and low-carbon energy system [4][11][15]. Group 1: Energy Supply and Demand - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's energy consumption growth reached 1.5 times that of the previous five years, with projected new electricity consumption exceeding the annual consumption of the EU [12]. - The total electricity generation in 2024 is expected to surpass 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for one-third of global production [12]. - The energy supply system has been optimized, with a robust infrastructure network supporting energy distribution across regions [12][13]. Group 2: Green and Low-Carbon Transition - The share of renewable energy in total installed capacity increased from 40% to approximately 60%, with annual additions of wind and solar capacity breaking records [14]. - Non-fossil energy consumption is projected to exceed the "14th Five-Year Plan" target of 20%, with coal's share decreasing by 1 percentage point annually [14]. - China's exports of wind and solar products during this period contributed to a reduction of approximately 4.1 billion tons of carbon emissions in other countries [14]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - The period has seen breakthroughs in energy technology, with China leading in renewable energy patents, accounting for over 40% of global patents [4][15]. - New energy storage capacity has grown nearly 30 times, with installed capacity reaching approximately 95 million kilowatts [5][39]. - The development of smart microgrids and virtual power plants has accelerated, integrating energy with industrial and transportation sectors [5][15]. Group 4: Energy Market Reform - The establishment of a unified national electricity market has progressed, with market transaction volumes increasing from 10.7 trillion kilowatt-hours to 23.8 trillion kilowatt-hours [5][22]. - The number of registered market participants has surged to 970,000, five times that of 2020, indicating a vibrant market environment [16]. - The participation of private enterprises in the energy sector has increased significantly, with over 85% of power facility construction involving private companies [31][32]. Group 5: Investment Trends - Energy investment has shown robust growth, with annual investments exceeding 6 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 10% of total fixed asset investment [30]. - Renewable energy projects accounted for over 80% of power investment in 2024, highlighting a shift towards sustainable energy sources [31]. - Investment in new energy sectors such as hydrogen and energy storage is becoming a new growth point, with nearly 200 billion yuan allocated in 2024 [5][31]. Group 6: International Cooperation - China has strengthened energy cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, signing agreements with over 10 countries to enhance green energy development [33][34]. - Collaborative projects in renewable energy have significantly reduced the cost of wind and solar power globally, contributing to a more sustainable energy landscape [34]. - China is actively participating in global energy governance, focusing on energy security, transition, and climate change [35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights China's leadership in new energy technologies, with over 40% of global patents in this sector and continuous advancements in solar conversion efficiency and offshore wind power capacity [1][3] - China's new energy storage capacity has rapidly become the largest in the world, showcasing significant growth in this area [1] - Major engineering projects such as the Baihetan Hydropower Station and the domestically developed third-generation nuclear power plants "Hualong One" and "Guohe One" have been completed, demonstrating China's technological innovation capabilities [3] Group 2 - The development of oil and gas extraction has achieved breakthroughs, including reaching depths of over 10,000 meters and advancing into deep-sea environments, which reflects the strength of China's technological advancements [3] - The completion of several "world's largest" and "world's first" projects underscores China's hard power in scientific and technological innovation [3]

Group 1 - The provincial government emphasizes the need to unify thoughts and actions with the central government's scientific judgment and decision-making regarding the economic situation, focusing on achieving annual goals and planning for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The government is committed to enhancing economic quality and stability by leveraging comparative advantages in location, resources, and costs, while implementing extraordinary measures to stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [1][2] - There is a strong focus on accelerating the development of key industries through technological innovation, enhancing collaboration between enterprises and research institutions, and improving the development levels of industries such as new energy, electronic information, and oil and gas [2] Group 2 - The government aims to boost consumer confidence and stimulate consumption by optimizing the distribution of consumption vouchers and promoting sectors like automotive and home appliances [2] - Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market through urban renewal initiatives and innovative housing solutions, which will help activate existing housing stock and improve urban infrastructure [2] - The government is also focused on enhancing public services in education, healthcare, and elderly care, while ensuring that resources are expanded and optimized to meet the changing population demands [2]

Core Viewpoint - Algeria is nearing a final agreement with American energy giants ExxonMobil and Chevron for the joint development of its shale gas resources, which will enhance its natural gas production and export capabilities, solidifying its position as a key supplier to Europe [1] Group 1: Algeria's Energy Strategy - Algeria is actively promoting natural gas pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports [1] - The chairman of Algeria's energy regulatory agency, Alnaft, indicated that technical terms have been largely agreed upon, with final negotiations on commercial terms ongoing [1] - The introduction of American energy companies is expected to demonstrate Algeria's resource potential [1] Group 2: Shale Gas Development - Algeria aims to increase its production and export volumes through the development of shale gas, leveraging its significant conventional gas reserves and being the third-largest holder of shale gas reserves globally [1] - The country is focusing on enhancing its natural gas supply to Europe, especially following the disruption of Russian gas supplies due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 3: European Market Dynamics - Europe is accelerating imports of pipeline gas and LNG from Africa, with Italian energy giant Eni initiating multiple fast-track projects in the region [1] - The UK’s Grain LNG terminal signed a ten-year agreement with Algeria's state oil company Sonatrach to extend its LNG storage and transshipment capacity starting January 2029 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global asset performance in July shows that the US dollar leads with a return of 3.19%, followed by commodities at 2.00%, global stocks at 1.30%, and the Chinese yuan at -0.50%, with global bonds declining by 1.49% [2] Group 1: Global Asset Trends - The liquidity of Japanese government bonds has deteriorated beyond the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, with the Bloomberg Japan Government Bond Liquidity Index surpassing the post-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy levels [4][10] - There is a divergence in the performance of cyclical stocks versus defensive stocks in the US market, closely linked to forward swap rates tied to interest rates, indicating optimism among investors regarding sustained high interest rates [12] - The relative performance of MSCI Japan bank stocks is highly correlated with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield, benefiting from rising inflation expectations [5][15] Group 2: Fund Manager Allocations - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to technology to the highest level since March 2009, while reducing positions in cash, consumer staples, banks, emerging markets, and commodities [18] - Emerging market sovereign debt has seen its yield spread over US Treasuries narrow to a 15-year low, reducing the attractiveness of this strategy despite strong performance earlier in the year [24][21] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The relative performance of European consumer staples has diverged from the gold-to-copper ratio since 2024, indicating a weakening relationship between macroeconomic conditions and defensive sectors [28] - The relative price-to-earnings ratio of European and US stock indices is closely related to the uncertainty of economic policies in both regions, with European valuations rising as US policy uncertainty increases [31] Group 4: Interest Rate Dynamics - The interest rate swap spread between China's 5-year and 1-year rates has turned positive for the first time in seven months, reflecting confidence in long-term inflation due to domestic policies and infrastructure projects [35] - The South African stock index has closely followed gold prices, with a cumulative increase of approximately 19% since 2025, outperforming other emerging market indices [38] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The volume of bullish options on the SPDR US Dollar ETF has been declining, suggesting a potential softening of the dollar, as indicated by the falling risk reversal options [41]