Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the short - term difficulty in easing Middle - East conflicts, international oil prices will remain high in the long term. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan further tightens palm oil supply, providing long - term support for both domestic and international palm oil markets. Hold long positions in palm oil and suggest narrowing the soybean spread [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Indonesia's B50 Plan - On March 30, the Indonesian President announced that the mixing ratio of palm oil and diesel would be increased from 40% to 50%, causing the main contract of Malaysian palm oil to rise by 3.2%, and the main contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange to close with certain changes [7] - As the world's largest palm oil producer and exporter, Indonesia has long relied on imported diesel. Since 2023, the government has continuously increased the biodiesel blending ratio from B35 to B40 and aims for B50 to enhance energy security, save foreign exchange, and digest excess palm oil inventory [7] - By 2026, about 5.3 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) will be needed for B50 production, and the total demand for palm - based biofuels will reach about 18 - 20.1 billion liters [7] Situation of US Soybean Oil - The positive factors for US soybean oil are exhausted. After the bio - diesel plan was implemented, the price of US soybean oil rose from 48 - 70 cents, a 30% increase. Capital has been laying out long positions for more than four months, with an obvious demand for profit - taking [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to the long - term high international oil prices caused by the short - term irreconcilable Middle East conflicts and the implementation of Indonesia's B50 program, the supply of palm oil will be further tightened, which will provide long - term support for both domestic and foreign palm oil markets. It is recommended to hold long positions in palm oil and shrink the soybean price spread in arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Indonesia's B50 Policy - On March 30, the Indonesian president announced that the mixing ratio of palm oil and diesel would be increased from 40% to 50%, causing the main contract of Malaysian palm oil to rise by 3.2% and the main contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange to rise by 1.66% [7][3]. - As the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil, Indonesia has long relied on imported diesel. To enhance energy security, save foreign exchange, and digest excess palm oil inventory, the government has continuously increased the biodiesel blending ratio since 2023, aiming for B50 (50%) [7]. - In 2026, about 5.3 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) will be needed for B50 production, and the total demand for palm - based biofuels will reach about 18 - 20.1 billion liters [7]. Situation of US Soybean Oil - The positive factors for US soybean oil are exhausted after the implementation of the biodiesel plan. US soybean oil has risen from 48 - 70 cents, a 30% increase. Capital has been laying out long - positions for more than four months, and there is an obvious demand for profit - taking [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint - Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the short - term sharp rise in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of edible oils. Fundamentally, at the end of January, the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries such as China and India further declined to relatively low levels. The report maintains a bullish view on edible oils in the medium term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information** - In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.276 million tons, a decrease of 383,000 tons from the previous month [11]. - From February 1 - 28, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 19.35% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 19.20%, and the oil extraction rate dropped by 0.03% [11]. - In January 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons from the previous month but an increase of 340,000 tons compared to the same period last year; exports were 1.48 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month and 320,000 tons compared to the same period last year; inventory was 2.82 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons from the previous month but an increase of 1.24 million tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - From February 1 - 28, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.025 million tons according to AmSpec, a decrease of 350,000 tons from January; and 852,000 tons according to SGS, a decrease of 92,000 tons from the previous month [11]. - As of the end of January, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, unchanged from the previous month but a decrease of 430,000 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - In the week of February 27, the inventory of the three major edible oils in domestic sample data was 1.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 46,000 tons [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - **Valuation**: Y: 05 + 310 yuan/ton, P: 05 - 70 yuan/ton, OI: 05 + 661 yuan/ton; palm oil import profit was - 300 yuan/ton, and the biodiesel spread was at a medium level [12]. - **Driving Factors**: Malaysia's palm oil production showed seasonal decline and inventory decreased; soybean production had a slight reduction, global rapeseed had a bumper harvest, and global sunflower seed production had a slight reduction; the vegetable oil inventories in China and India were at a low level [12]. - **Multi - empty Scoring**: The overall score was neutral in valuation, with the biodiesel spread combined with inventory being neutral and import profit being low; the production situation was bearish; other factors were neutral; and the low inventory in China and India was bullish. The medium - term view was to be bullish on edible oils [12]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion** - **Single - sided Strategy**: Wait for price pull - backs to go long, driven by the low inventory in major consumer countries and the geopolitical crisis [13]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, as well as the price spreads between different contracts, including the basis of palm oil May contract, Malaysian palm oil basis, basis of soybean oil May contract, basis of rapeseed oil May contract, spread between soybean oil May and palm oil May contracts, and the monthly spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 5 - 9 contracts [20][24][26]. 3. Supply Side - **Palm Oil** - Malaysia's palm oil monthly production and export volume data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in charts [32]. - Indonesia's palm oil production and export volume data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in charts [34]. - **Soybean** - The weekly arrival volume and port inventory of soybeans from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [36]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil** - The monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil from 2021 - 2025 are presented in charts [37]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory** - The total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils from 2022 - 2026 and India's imported vegetable oil inventory from 2021 - 2025 are presented in charts [41]. - **Palm Oil** - The near - month import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [43]. - **Soybean Oil** - The spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [45]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - The average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [47]. - **Malaysia and Indonesia Palm Oil Inventory** - The palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia from 2021 - 2025 are presented in charts [49]. 5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil** - The reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [52]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil** - The near - month shipping import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [55]. 6. Demand Side - **Edible Oil Transactions** - The cumulative transaction volume of palm oil from 2022 - 2026 and the annual cumulative transaction volume of soybean oil from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [60]. - **Biodiesel Profit** - The POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) from 2022 - 2026 are presented in charts [63].

Core Viewpoint - The global vegetable oil market is undergoing a structural transformation, characterized by a slowdown in palm oil growth while the planting areas of soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed are expanding to fill the gap. Palm oil exports have decreased from a peak of 55.3 million tons in the 2018/19 season to an estimated 49.3 million tons in the 2024/25 season, with its share of global oil exports dropping from 57% to about 50% over the past seven years. This decline is primarily due to government interventions in Indonesia and aging plantations in Malaysia [3][11]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - A structural supply deficit in global vegetable oils is evident, mainly due to the slowdown in palm oil area expansion (only 1.7 million hectares in the past five years) while soybean area has surged (e.g., Brazil increased by 9 million hectares). Experts predict that this supply gap will lead to higher price ranges, with palm oil expected to be priced between $1,000 and $1,350 per ton in 2026, significantly above the average of $733 from 2011 to 2020 [3][11]. - Malaysia's palm oil supply is constrained by aging trees and diseases, with 35% of the area expected to have trees older than 19 years by 2027. The country faces a production bottleneck, with a target of increasing yield from 3.5 tons per hectare to 4.5 tons through high-yield seed technology by 2035 [4][12]. - Indonesia's land seizure policies are exacerbating supply uncertainties, with plans to confiscate an additional 4-5 million hectares of illegal plantations. This has led to reduced fertilizer use and management issues, significantly lowering yield expectations [5][13]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Soybean oil is increasingly threatening the competitive advantage of palm oil, with soybean oil production growing six times faster than that of palm oil. The global soybean area has increased by 25.2 million hectares over five years, while palm oil has only expanded by 1.7 million hectares, prompting a focus on sustainable production practices [6][13]. - The biofuel policy is a critical variable for demand, with the potential confirmation of a strong biodiesel plan by the U.S. EPA in March 2026 likely to push soybean oil prices higher. Conversely, the delay of Indonesia's B50 plan is suppressing palm oil demand growth [5][14]. Group 3: Technological Innovations and Risks - Technological innovations, such as semi-dwarf oil palm trials, aim to improve harvesting efficiency, with potential yields reaching 34.4 tons per hectare per year. Malaysia is investing in automation and superior seed materials to overcome production ceilings, although recovery is currently slow [6][14]. - Climate change and geopolitical factors are amplifying supply risks, with 2025 expected to be one of the hottest years on record, increasing the costs of natural disasters and affecting global supply chains. The El Niño phenomenon may exacerbate drought conditions, further constraining palm oil production [7][15]. Group 4: Demand Trends - Demand trends in India and China are diverging, with global edible oil consumption expected to increase by 7.1 million tons from 2025 to 2026, while production is only projected to rise by 5.3 million tons, creating a notable supply gap. India's palm oil imports are expected to reach 9.1 million tons, while soybean oil imports are projected at 5.4 million tons [8][15]. - In the short term, palm oil is gradually reducing inventory pressure, with MPOB inventory data dropping to 2.82 million tons. The report indicates that Malaysian palm oil exports exceeded mainstream estimates, contributing to a neutral to bullish outlook [8][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement of palm oil's fundamentals is slow, but there are almost no new potential negative news. Before the Spring Festival, there is a tendency to trade on unfalsifiable topics with the arrival of cold snaps. There is still room for a rise of a couple of hundred points. The bullish sentiment for palm oil in the first quarter is strong, and one can follow the trend in the short - term, while being aware of the risk of a pullback when the price reaches 9200 - 9400 [2][4][6]. - The US is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. The news implies a possible increase in the RVO level, which is positive for US soybean oil. US soybean oil has the potential to reach 56 cents. Domestic soybean oil is currently running stronger along with palm oil and crude oil, with a bullish trading idea for the oil - meal ratio [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's View and Logic - **Palm Oil**: After the MPOB report at the beginning of the month confirmed negative factors and the B50 risk emerged, there were almost no new negative factors in the fundamentals. With the approaching implementation of the US biodiesel policy, frequent speculation topics such as Indonesia and India's tax increases, and the rise in crude oil prices driven by cold snaps and geopolitical issues, Malaysia gradually realized a production cut in January. The seasonal bullish sentiment for palm oil was high, and the palm oil 05 contract rose 3.39% last week [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was a lack of South American weather speculation, and the upward driving force for US soybeans was limited. It mainly followed the upward movement of the oil sector. At the same time, the bullish trading idea for the oil - meal ratio was strengthened, and the soybean oil 05 contract rose 1.45% last week [1]. 2. This Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - Although the price increase when there is an import profit for China implies no actual improvement in the fundamentals, there are almost no new potential negative news. Before the Spring Festival, trading on unfalsifiable topics with the arrival of cold snaps is a common strategy. The market has fully priced in Malaysia's high - inventory situation. New trend - setting negative factors would require the production in January - February to remain above 160 and 150 tons respectively. However, with the SPPOMA still showing a 16% production cut in January and the ITS showing an 11% increase in exports in the first 20 days, the inventory in January is expected to return to around 2.8 million tons. So, the market has returned to the normal trading strategy of buying on dips during the production - cut season [2]. - If the month - on - month production cut in January is less than 10%, the annual production in 2026 may increase by 100,000 tons per month on a regular basis, releasing continuous supply pressure. Therefore, when the long - term direction is unclear, short - term operations following the news are recommended [2]. - The biggest variable this year is Indonesia. The Indonesian government claims that B50 may not be promoted this year, with the main goal being to fully implement B40. The early implementation of B50 largely depends on technology and the POGO level. There is an underlying logic for the POGO spread to shrink to $250/ton, but the spread may not return until energy prices fall [2]. - Recently, the price difference between India and Malaysia has rapidly shrunk, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has rebounded, and the refining profit in Indonesia has remained high, indicating an improved willingness to sell in Indonesia, but it is not clear whether the selling pressure is high. The bottom - building rhythm is still dominated by Malaysia. In the sales area, India's CPO import profit has recently recovered, and the international soybean - palm oil price difference has fallen. Before the Argentine soybean oil is available in May, palm oil is still the preferred oil, and Malaysia's exports are expected to remain high [2]. Soybean Oil - Reuters reported that the Trump administration is actively promoting the 2026 biofuel policy, expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, considering setting the volume range of D4 biodiesel between 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons and abandoning the plan to penalize the import of renewable fuels and their raw materials. As the policy implementation deadline approaches, even if the expectation of abandoning the penalty on raw material imports is realized, it will have no negative impact on US soybean oil. The news implies a possible increase in the RVO level, which is positive for US soybean oil, with the expected annual industrial demand for US soybean oil rising from 7 million tons to 8 - 9 million tons. US soybean oil has the potential to reach 56 cents, but one should be aware that the EPA's news may change [5]. - As of this week, the growth of Brazilian soybeans is generally good, and the production outlook is positive. The core production areas in Argentina are relatively dry, and attention should be paid to the later rainfall forecast. The positive outlook for South American soybeans has put strong pressure on the US soybean market. If Argentina does not experience a drought later, the CBOT soybean in January is unlikely to rebound significantly, and it is expected to fluctuate and stabilize. China's customs may accelerate the release of imported soybeans in the first quarter, and the auction of state - reserve imported soybeans is progressing well, weakening the sentiment for the monthly spread. However, there may be a shortage of soybean arrivals in March - April, which may support the domestic soybean spot and monthly spread to fluctuate stronger [5]. 3. Disk Basic Market Data - **Futures Price and Volume**: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,910 yuan/ton, up 3.39%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,094 yuan/ton, up 1.45%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,991 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. The trading volume of palm oil decreased by 575,629 lots, and the open interest increased by 61,137 lots; the trading volume of soybean oil decreased by 247,658 lots, and the open interest increased by 49,094 lots; the trading volume of rapeseed oil decreased by 291,357 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,746 lots [9]. - **Price Difference**: The rapeseed - soybean 05 spread was 897 yuan/ton, down 14.33%; the soybean - palm 05 spread was - 816 yuan/ton, down 24.01%; the palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton, up 216.67%; the soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 94 yuan/ton, down 27.69%; the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton, down 47.17% [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 488 lots to 660 lots; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts decreased by 1,434 lots to 26,525 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 1,017 lots to 1,125 lots [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the palm oil market are weak, with high production in major palm oil - producing areas, sluggish exports, and high inventory levels. However, in the long - term, the expected reduction in Malaysian palm oil production, the confiscation of illegal plantations in Indonesia, and the expected increase in U.S. biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026 suggest an optimistic outlook. Short - term trading should be on hold [11]. - The price of edible oils may be approaching the bottom range [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 16.49%, and the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08%. As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. In January, the estimated consumption of U.S. soybean oil was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December estimate and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November. In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, production decreased by 5.46% to 1.83 million tons, and exports increased by 8.52% to 1.32 million tons [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The valuation of edible oils shows that the basis of soybean oil (Y) is 05 + 526 yuan/ton, palm oil (P) is 05 + 20 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil (OI) is 05 + 759 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil is - 256 yuan/ton, and the biodiesel spread is at a medium level. The current production and inventory in major producing countries are high, soybean production has a slight reduction, global rapeseed production is high, and global sunflower seed production has a slight reduction. China's edible oil inventory is relatively high, while India's is relatively low. The overall assessment is that the price of edible oils may be approaching the bottom range [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, as well as the spreads between different contracts, including the 5 - month contract basis, 5 - 9 month contract spreads, and the spread between soybean oil 5 - month and palm oil 5 - month contracts [23][26][28][30]. 3.3. Supply Side - The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, which reflect the supply situation of different oil - related products [34][36][37][38]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - The report provides charts of the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and main oil mill inventory of soybean oil, the coastal spot average crushing profit and commercial inventory of rapeseed oil, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [42][44][46][48][50]. 3.5. Cost Side - The report shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches, the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, the near - month shipping import price of rapeseed oil, and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed, which reflect the cost situation of different oil - related products [53][56]. 3.6. Demand Side - **Edible Oil Transactions**: The report presents charts of the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [61]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report shows charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which reflect the profit situation of biodiesel [64].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1 to January 20 reached 947,939 tons, representing an increase of 11.4% compared to 851,057 tons during the same period last month [1]

Core Insights - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean oil futures have been operating steadily for 20 years, with significant increases in trading volume and open interest, indicating enhanced liquidity and risk-bearing capacity [1] - Over 90% of medium and large soybean crushing enterprises in China utilize soybean oil futures for hedging, establishing the futures price as a key benchmark for domestic soybean oil spot trading [4] - The ability of soybean oil futures to serve the global oilseed industry has improved, with recent initiatives allowing foreign investors to trade these futures, thereby enhancing the international influence of China's soybean oil pricing and quality [5] Group 1: Market Performance - Daily trading volume of soybean oil futures increased from 43,100 contracts in 2006 to 445,000 contracts in 2025, while daily open interest rose from 24,200 contracts to 844,400 contracts [1] - The distribution of over 30 delivery warehouses across seven provinces ensures sufficient delivery capacity, supporting industry participation in the futures market [1] Group 2: Industry Adoption - More than 90% of large soybean crushing enterprises use the "Dalian Commodity Exchange futures price + basis" pricing model for soybean oil sales, indicating widespread acceptance of futures in the industry [4] - By the end of 2025, the proportion of industry clients holding soybean oil futures positions is expected to reach 52% [4] Group 3: Global Integration - In 2022, soybean futures were included in the list of tradable products for qualified foreign institutional investors, facilitating international trading [5] - The introduction of the FSOY contract on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange based on soybean oil futures settlement prices reflects the growing global integration of these futures [5] Group 4: Risk Management and Pricing - The use of soybean oil futures has evolved from cautious experimentation to a critical tool for daily risk management and operational decision-making within the industry [5] - The adoption of basis pricing for other edible oils, such as cottonseed oil, demonstrates the broader acceptance and application of soybean oil futures pricing mechanisms [6]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a significant increase in China's soybean oil imports, with a quantity of 50,000 tons in November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 827.2% and an import value of 5.5 million USD, which is a 976.6% increase [1] Group 1: Market Trends - China's soybean oil imports have surged dramatically, indicating a strong demand in the market [1] - The substantial growth in import volume and value suggests potential opportunities for investors in the soybean oil sector [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to delivering quality services and market insights, which can aid investment decision-making [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025 from January to November, the weighted index of palm oil prices fluctuated between rising and falling. The trading rhythm was affected by factors such as the expected difference and implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the release and progress of the US biodiesel policy, the expected difference in production and export demand, the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations, and the repeated geopolitical situations causing greater fluctuations in crude oil prices [3][47] - In 2026, the global palm oil production is expected to increase by 2% - 3%, approximately 1.6 - 2.4 million tons, with the USDA estimating the global production at 80 million tons. Indonesia's production will only increase slightly due to policy - restricted planting area, possibly benefiting from improved technical management efficiency. Malaysia's palm oil production will remain at 20 million tons in 2026, basically the same as the previous year, mainly because of the aging of palm trees and the slow replanting progress [3][47] - Malaysia is currently facing high inventory pressure, and its subsequent tariffs may be adjusted to promote exports. The USDA expects the new - year export volume to be 16.1 million tons, a slight increase. Indonesia's export demand may increase slightly due to the postponement of the biodiesel policy, currently estimated at 23.7 million tons, with limited overall export demand growth. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is planned to be implemented in the second half of 2026, expected to bring an increment of 2 million tons, but it may be further postponed [3][47] - The global supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is expected to remain loose, and soybean and rapeseed oils still have price advantages, with substitution demand remaining. The Russia - Ukraine negotiation has entered the stage of a peace agreement, with supply expected to increase but demand growth slowing. Oil prices are generally weak and fluctuating at low levels, providing limited support to the oil market [3][48] - Overall, in 2026, the global palm oil production and edible consumption will maintain a trend of growth. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy will bring an increase in demand, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. Due to factors such as supply - demand mismatch, policy expectation differences, and geopolitical conflicts, there will be structural market conditions within the year, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 7,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3][48] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Market Review - In early 2025, palm oil prices continued to weaken. The failure of Indonesia's expected B40 policy in January, the strong US economic data leading to a stronger US dollar index suppressing the commodity market, and the high - priced palm oil suppressing market demand led to a continuous price decline. After the release of the USDA report in January, the significant downward adjustment of the yield per unit area and the Trump tariff policy boosting US soybean oil consumption demand led to a sharp rise in US soybean oil prices, causing palm oil prices to stop falling. After the Spring Festival, with domestic low - inventory status continuing, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, and the pre - Ramadan stocking demand, along with concerns about production due to excessive precipitation in the producing areas and Indonesia's re - emphasis on the upcoming implementation of the B40 policy, palm oil prices rose continuously. From late February to May, palm oil prices fluctuated and declined. In March, the producing areas entered the production - increasing season, the US tariff policy on the world raised concerns about market demand, the sharp decline in crude oil prices drove down the oil sector, and the continuous suspension of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy led to the price decline. From June to August, palm oil prices started to rise. The first - stage rise was mainly driven by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, as well as the US biodiesel policy expectation after the passage of the large - scale and beautiful bill. The second - stage rise was mainly due to the positive impact of the July MPOB report, the news that Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy was being gradually implemented and the B50 policy was in the testing and R & D stage. The third - stage rise was mainly because the inventory accumulation in the August MPOB report was less than expected, the preliminary ruling result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseeds was released, the US Environmental Protection Agency's biodiesel policy exemption obligation was less than expected, and US soybean oil prices were strongly boosted. In September, prices fluctuated due to the interweaving of multiple factors. In October, prices started to fall due to the continuous increase in monthly production, the increase in substitution by soybean oil due to its better cost - effectiveness, the weakening of palm oil export demand, the inventory accumulation exceeding expectations, and the supply becoming more relaxed [8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 MPOB Report - The MPOB's monthly data shows that in November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.94 million tons, a 5.3% month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 1.21 million tons, a 28.13% month - on - month decrease; the ending inventory at the end of November was 2.84 million tons, higher than market expectations. The overall impact of the report was bearish. From December to March, Malaysia's palm oil enters the production - reducing season. With the approaching of the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, domestic stocking demand is expected to increase, providing good support for palm oil prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction process of Malaysian palm oil [19] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is currently at a high level compared to the same period. The official reference price in December 2025 was set at 4,206.38 ringgit/ton, lower than that in November. The export tariff rate is 10%, and the export mechanism may be adjusted later to reduce high inventory. About 30% of Malaysia's oil palm trees are over 19 years old, and about 12% are over 25 years old, with an average tree age of about 15 years, approaching the decline period after the peak of yield per unit area, resulting in a slowdown in production capacity growth. The replanting of palm trees requires a 3 - 5 - year sapling growth period, and the current replanting rate is 1% - 2%, lower than the level required to maintain production capacity. Therefore, Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to be 20 million tons in 2026, roughly the same as in 2025 [20] 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Export - According to the latest data from the SPPOMA, from November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.36% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month. According to the MPOA, from November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period of the previous month, with production in different regions all increasing [27][29] - According to the data of shipping survey institutions, from November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased compared to the same period of the previous month. The export volume data from different institutions showed different degrees of decline [29] 3.2.3 Indonesia Situation - According to the data from the GAPKI, in September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24 million tons; the export volume was 2.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.27 million tons; the domestic consumption was 2.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. The inventory in August 2025 was 2.59 million tons [32] - Indonesia's forestry working group composed of military personnel and law enforcement officials is strongly promoting the nationalization process of illegal plantations, having seized 3.7 million hectares of plantations, with a target of reaching 4 million hectares by the end of the year, accounting for 24.5% of the country's oil palm planting area. The USDA estimates the new - year production to be 47.5 million tons, with only a slight year - on - year increase, more relying on the improvement of government management efficiency rather than area expansion. If Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is implemented in the second half of 2026, it is expected to bring a demand increment of about 2 million tons in that year, while squeezing some export demand. If the policy is continuously postponed, part of the demand will be transferred to the export side [33] 3.2.4 India's Vegetable Oil Import - According to the data from the SEA, in October 2025, India's vegetable oil import volume was 1.33 million tons. From November 2024 to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 16.01 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50,000 tons. Among different oils, the import volume of palm oil decreased year - on - year, the import volume of soybean oil increased year - on - year, and the import volume of sunflower oil decreased year - on - year [35][37] 3.2.5 China's Oil Import - According to the data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in October 2025, China's palm oil import volume was 220,000 tons, the rapeseed oil import volume was 141,000 tons, and the sunflower oil import volume was 32,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of the three major oils was 4.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease compared to the previous year [39][40] 3.2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.1975 million tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 246,200 tons compared to the same period of the previous year. With the approaching of the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, domestic stocking demand will increase, and there are more import orders than before. Currently, the domestic inventory growth has slowed down, and it is expected to maintain a slight growth trend. The trading volume is average, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the holiday effect will provide some support for prices [42] 3.3 Summary and Future Outlook - The content is basically the same as the core views, including the price fluctuations in 2025, the production and demand situation in 2026, the situation of related varieties, and the overall market pattern and price forecast [47][48]