棕榈油年报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 生柴政策存变数 棕榈油宽幅震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 | 一、油脂市场行情回顾 4 | | --- | | 1.1 油脂市场走势 4 | | 二、基本面分析 6 | | 2.1 MPOB 报告 6 | | 2.2 马棕产量和出口 7 | | 2.3 印度尼西亚情况 8 | | 2.4 印度植物油进口 9 | | 2.5 中国油脂进口 10 | | 2.6 国内油脂库存 12 | | 三、总结与后市展望 13 | 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 2025年1-11月棕榈油价格加权指数处于涨跌，再次涨 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 30 日 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：市场担忧马来四季度产量仍大，同时缺乏 B50 和美豆油的有效需求故事，棕榈油仍维持震荡 运行，但高产边际交易暂时充分，短期超跌后技术反弹支撑，棕榈油 01 合约周涨 0.19%。 豆油：美豆销售进度偏慢，如果缺乏南美天气炒作则上方驱动有限，暂跟随油脂板块区间震荡为主， 等待升水故事，豆油 01 合约周涨 0.46%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马来今年产量及雨水状态整体偏好，可能使四季度产量在去年同期水平之上，10 月库存累至 近 250 万吨后，11 月前 20 日高频产量数据仍有增长势头，同时 ITS 出口数据环比-18%左右，11 月有不 去库的可能，年末库存可能仍维持在 245 万吨附近的历史偏高水平，至明年三月去至 200 万吨左右。从本 周表现来看，市场对于 11-12 月产量偏高的交易暂时充分，随着雨季及台风高强度降水的到来，如果 12 月顺利环比减 ...

消息面 监测显示，11月19日，12、1月船期24度棕榈油进口CNF报价1060美元/吨、1080美元/吨，周环比上涨 10~22美元/吨。 东海期货： 马来西亚衍生品交易所（BMD）毛棕榈油期货继续上涨，延续了上周五以来的强势，主要受到豆油走 强的提振。不过需求担忧以及令吉汇率走强，令棕榈油脱离盘中高点。国内棕榈油累库增加，现货价格 承压，短期棕榈油维持宽幅震荡。 11月19日：全国港口24度棕榈油成交量800吨，环比上个交易日减少33.33%。 机构观点 国投安信期货： 从美国柴油市场看，美国柴油产量低于平均水平，柴油出口强劲，国内需求也好于平均水平，预计美国 柴油中期会表现为供需偏紧的格局，预计美国柴油市场的强劲对植物油有边际溢出效应。近期国际豆油 走强,国际市场上豆棕价差也在走强，棕榈油也开始主动跟随。棕榈油马来西亚的短期高频数据显示供 需面偏弱。大豆国内近端压榨利润仍然偏差，国内表现出豆油强于豆粕。随着市场开始博弈美国生物柴 油政策存在变化，从美国产品和原料优先转为仍可以延续政策寻求进口，预计棕榈油边际上有所改善， 预计棕榈油单边走势阶段性见底的概率偏大。持续关注美国生物柴油政策最终落地。 据外媒报 ...

Core Insights - The global palm oil market is undergoing a significant transformation characterized by high volatility, high premiums, and policy-driven dynamics. The era of supply growth is ending, with demand being reshaped by biodiesel policies, making regulations more critical than traditional supply-demand factors in price formation [4][5][20]. Market Reality - The palm oil market has entered a structurally tight phase due to a fundamental shift in the supply and demand landscape. Key drivers include capacity constraints, policy interventions, and resilient demand. Major producers Indonesia and Malaysia are experiencing a slowdown in growth, while biodiesel policies are reshaping global trade flows [5][6][8]. Supply Dynamics - Indonesia's palm oil production is reaching a ceiling, with forecasts indicating a slowdown or even negative growth by 2026 due to aging trees, slow replanting rates, and land ownership uncertainties. Malaysia's production is also stagnating, with a slight decline expected [6][7]. - Thailand is a rare bright spot, with a production increase of 0.8% due to advantages in EU compliance [7]. Demand Dynamics - Indonesia's domestic biodiesel policies are significantly influencing demand, with the B40 policy consuming approximately 15.62 million kiloliters of crude palm oil (CPO). The proposed B50 policy could further increase demand by 1.5 to 3 million tons, squeezing export supplies [8]. - Import markets remain resilient, with India expected to increase palm oil imports from 8.1 million tons to 9.1 million tons in the 2025/26 period, supported by strategic reserves in China and demand from ASEAN and Africa [8]. Consensus Expectations - There is a clear consensus among institutions regarding a bullish long-term outlook for palm oil prices, driven by structural supply tightness. However, short-term price fluctuations are expected due to inventory pressures and policy uncertainties [9][10]. - The average annual growth rate for global palm oil production is projected to drop from 2.9 million tons in the past decade to 1.4 million tons in the next decade, marking the end of the capacity expansion era [9]. Price Outlook - In the short term (Q4 2025 - Q1 2026), prices are expected to be under pressure due to high Malaysian production and seasonal increases in Indonesian output, potentially dropping to $920-$950 per ton. In the medium to long term, prices may rebound to $1,100 per ton due to seasonal low production and the potential implementation of the B50 policy [10]. Institutional Divergence - Significant differences exist among institutions regarding price forecasts, focusing on the extent of supply declines, timing of policies, and external factors. Some institutions predict a price rebound starting in Q1 2026, while others emphasize the need for policy triggers [11][12][14]. Core Variables and Drivers - The future market direction hinges on several core variables, including the timing of Indonesia's B50 policy implementation, the execution details of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), weather and production risks, and dynamics of competing oils [16][18][21]. - Indonesia's strategic approach to palm oil, driven by resource nationalism, aims to enhance its global pricing power while reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels through biodiesel policies [21][22].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the significant increase in China's soybean oil imports, with a notable rise in both quantity and value in September 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Import Data Summary - In September 2025, China's soybean oil imports reached 70,000 tons, marking an 81.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The import value for the same period was $0.77 million, which represents a 105.4% year-on-year growth [1] Company Profile - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1] - The company has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, providing comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract down 1.91% to 8838.00 yuan/ton as of the latest report [1] Group 1: Market Data - As of October 26, the EU's palm oil import volume for the 2025/26 season is 890,000 tons, down from 1,130,000 tons in the same period last year [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons in August, a 1% decline from the previous month, as production declines offset reduced export volumes [2] - Indonesia's palm oil export volume in August was 3.47 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.8%, while crude palm oil production was 5.06 million tons [2] - Domestic palm oil inventory reached 565,000 tons by the end of the 43rd week of 2025, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous week [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, the decline in Indonesia's palm oil inventory is attributed to a decrease in production, which offset the impact of reduced exports [3] - Domestic palm oil prices have significantly corrected, reaching a one-month low, with an increase in open interest [3] - Nanhua Futures reports that Malaysia's palm oil production increased in October, contrary to market expectations of an early onset of the production decline season [3] - The Indonesian mining association has called for a halt to the B50 plan, raising concerns about future palm oil demand if the plan is not implemented [3]

Report Title - The report is titled "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly: Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined, Palm Oil Price Trends Volatile" [1] Report Date - The report was released on September 22, 2025 [1] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review - The market review includes BMD Malaysian palm oil and DCE palm oil, but specific data is not provided in the given content [4] 2. Producing Area Weather - The section focuses on palm oil producing area weather, but no detailed information is given [4] 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 Indian SEA August Report - No content related to the Indian SEA August report is provided [4] 3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil September Forecast - AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15, 2025 were 695,716 tons, a 0.10% decrease from the same period last month and a 5.29% increase from the same period last year. Among them, crude palm oil exports were 95,625 tons, a 31.27% decrease from the same period last month and a 36.50% decrease from the same period last year; 24 - degree palm oil exports were 142,401 tons, a 6.08% increase from the same period last month and a 1.41% decrease from the same period last year; 33 - degree palm oil exports were 96,540 tons, a 67.02% increase from the same period last month and a 5.98% increase from the same period last year; 44 - degree palm oil exports were 70,365 tons, a 12.39% decrease from the same period last month and a 19.59% increase from the same period last year [20] - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15, 2025 were 742,648 tons, a 12.55% increase from the same period last month and a 16.83% increase from the same period last year. Major markets include the EU with 167,330 tons (a 20.18% decrease from the same period last month and a 19.17% increase from the same period last year), China with 11,000 tons (a 25.00% increase from the same period last month and an 83.80% decrease from the same period last year), and India and the Indian sub - continent with 122,325 tons (a 5.98% decrease from the same period last month and an 18.02% decrease from the same period last year). Among different types, crude palm oil exports were 99,825 tons (a 27.89% decrease from the same period last month and a 35.24% decrease from the same period last year); 24 - degree palm oil exports were 178,500 tons (a 39.69% increase from the same period last month and a 30.16% increase from the same period last year); 33 - degree palm oil exports were 57,460 tons (a 9.46% increase from the same period last month and a 5.09% decrease from the same period last year); 44 - degree palm oil exports were 71,645 tons (a 4.62% decrease from the same period last month and a 13.12% increase from the same period last year) [21] - SPPOMA data shows that as of September 15, 2025, palm oil production increased by 8.05% compared to September 10, 2025, decreased by 3.17% compared to September 5, 2025, and increased by 6.28% compared to September 5, 2025. FFB yield increased by 6.94% compared to September 10, 2025, decreased by 2.70% compared to September 5, 2025, and decreased by 5.70% compared to September 5, 2025. The extraction rate decreased by 0.21% compared to September 10, 2025, increased by 0.09% compared to September 5, 2025, and decreased by 0.11% compared to September 5, 2025 [22] 3.3 Other Important Information - No other important information content is provided [4] 4. Domestic Supply and Demand - This section includes import profit, palm oil transactions, and palm oil inventory, but no specific data is given [4] 5. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, Spread Situations - This section includes basis, monthly spreads, variety spreads, palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and futures open interest, and FOB quotes, but no specific data is provided [4]

Summary of Palm Oil Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The palm oil market has recently experienced a correction, but there is significant potential for mid-term price increases. The current market sentiment is weak due to a lack of news, leading to profit-taking and price volatility [1][3] - The U.S. and Brazil's biofuel policies are increasing the use of soybean oil, which is reducing soybean oil exports and raising the international price differential between soybean and palm oil, benefiting palm oil exports [1][4] - Indonesia's B40 policy and potential B50 policy are expected to support long-term demand for palm oil [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply and demand in Malaysia and Indonesia are tightening. Malaysia's production is expected to continue declining, while Indonesia's crackdown on illegal plantations poses risks to production increases. Overall inventory in both countries is decreasing, providing price support [1][5] - India's vegetable oil inventory is low, indicating a need for replenishment. Indonesia's increased export taxes are reducing its competitiveness, while Malaysia's export data remains strong, suggesting ongoing support for India's replenishment needs [1][6] - The Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal plantations has significantly impacted production, involving millions of hectares and potentially leading to a decrease in output [1][7][29] Climate Impact - Global climate change may cause delayed impacts on palm oil production in Q1 2026, further tightening supply-demand relationships and supporting prices [1][9] Production Trends - Global palm oil production growth is expected to slow significantly by 2026, with Indonesia's production increase projected to be limited to around 1 million tons [2][11] - The concentration of palm oil production is high, primarily in Indonesia and Malaysia, with both countries facing challenges such as aging plantations and limited expansion potential [1][10] Biofuel Demand - The demand for biodiesel has increased significantly, particularly in Indonesia, where policies are expected to drive domestic palm oil demand. The potential implementation of B50 could add approximately 3 million tons of demand [1][12][18] - U.S. and Brazilian biodiesel policies are also expected to increase the demand for soybean oil and indirectly support palm oil exports [1][13][14] Market Outlook - The palm oil price has fluctuated significantly since July 2025, with expectations of further increases despite recent corrections. The price is projected to remain between 9,200 and 10,000, with potential for exceeding 10,000 in the long term [1][19][22] - India's low palm oil inventory is attributed to rising domestic consumption and reduced imports, indicating a need for replenishment in the coming months [1][23] Risks and Considerations - The transition of illegal plantation management to state-owned enterprises could significantly impact supply, with potential losses in production if not managed properly [1][25][29] - If palm oil prices remain high, it may affect the willingness of the government to increase biodiesel blending rates due to economic concerns [1][21] Conclusion - The palm oil market is facing a complex interplay of supply constraints, policy impacts, and climate considerations, with a generally optimistic long-term outlook despite short-term volatility. The focus should remain on monitoring production trends, policy developments, and global market dynamics to identify potential investment opportunities and risks.

Core Insights - China's soybean oil imports in June 2025 reached 10,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 82.1% [1] - The import value for soybean oil was $0.06 million, which is a decrease of 81.5% compared to the previous year [1] Data Summary - Import Quantity: 10,000 tons, down 82.1% year-on-year [1] - Import Value: $0.06 million, down 81.5% year-on-year [1] - Data Source: Chinese Customs, organized by Zhiyan Consulting [3]

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Palm Oil Weekly Report" and dated August 18, 2025 [1][3] Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 224 to close at 4,478 ringgit/ton, a 5.27% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 414 to close at 9,394 yuan/ton, a 4.61% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 162 to close at 8,562 yuan/ton, a 1.93% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 233 to close at 9,807 yuan/ton, a 2.43% increase; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.79 to close at 53.22 cents/pound, a 1.51% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 9.5 to close at 660.5 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.42% decrease [4][5][7] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 270 to 9,300 yuan/ton, a 2.99% increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 110 to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 230 to 9,900 yuan/ton, a 2.38% increase [5] - The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 252 to - 832 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 181 to 413 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Market Performance - The domestic oil sector fluctuated and rose, with palm oil showing strength and rapeseed oil rising and then falling under policy influence. The long - term expansion of biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US supports the long - term demand for soybean and palm oil. Rapeseed oil has a global supply, and policies may change the trade pattern, with relatively weak demand growth expectations compared to soybean and palm oil, but there is an expectation of tightening domestic long - term supply [4][8] MPOB Report - In July, Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons. Production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons, and domestic consumption increased 6.63% to 483,000 tons [8] US Department of Agriculture Report - The US Department of Agriculture's August oilseed report shows that the global palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 80.736 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; the ending inventory is expected to be 15.034 million tons, a downward revision of 4,000 tons from last month's estimate; and exports are expected to be 46.163 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate. Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 24 million tons, and Malaysia's are expected to be 16.1 million tons, both unchanged from last month's estimates [9][10] Other Data - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased 17.27% month - on - month. From August 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared to the previous period [10] - India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June; sunflower oil imports were 200,010 tons, down from 216,141 tons in June; total vegetable oil imports were 1.579041 million tons, up from 1.549825 million tons in June; and soybean oil imports were 492,336 tons, up from 359,504 tons in June [11] - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3967 million tons, an increase of 35,600 tons from last week and 284,700 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 27,540 tons, down from 30,880 tons the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 690 tons, up from 437 tons the previous week [12] Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US - Russia presidential meeting ended, and the negotiation process may be difficult. The US retail sales in July increased 0.5% month - on - month, consumer demand remains resilient, the US dollar index fluctuates, and oil prices fluctuate within a narrow range. Fundamentally, Malaysia's export demand has increased significantly, Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented with low inventory, and Malaysia's inventory build - up in July was lower than expected. In the short term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly [4][13] Industry News - Indonesia's trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the "Domestic Market Obligation (DMO)" plan to lower prices, with a monthly DMO level of 175,000 tons by the end of the year [14] - Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory to remain high in the near term. RHB Investment Bank believes that production will increase before the peak season, demand will improve, inventory will continue to increase above 2 million tons, palm oil prices will decline in Q3 and rise in Q4. Maybank Investment Bank also expects higher palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia in 2025 [15] - Indian traders estimate that in the 2024/25 season, soybean oil imports may increase 60% to 5.5 million tons, palm oil imports may decrease 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, sunflower oil imports may decrease 20% to 2.8 million tons, and total edible oil imports may increase 1% to 16.1 million tons [15] - Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange this year through the use of palm - based biodiesel. As of June, 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel have been distributed, and the goal of distributing 13.5 million kiloliters in 2025 is half - completed [16] Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, the three major oils, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as charts on inventory, production, and export volume of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of the three major oils in China [17][19][22]