E券 CG 宏观动态报告 利润增速磨底,"反内卷"略见成效 2025 年 1-7 月工业企业利润分析 2025 年 8 月 27 日 分析师 张迪 网：zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 铁伟奥 ☎: 136-8324-0373 極: tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060002 研究助理：薄一程 风险提示 1. 国内政策时滞的风险 2. 海外经济衰退的风险 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 8 月 27 日，国家统计局发布：1—7 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总 额 40203.5 亿元，同比下降 1.7%（前值-1.8%）；实现营业收入 78.07 万亿 元,同比增长 2.3%(前值 2.5%)。7 月 利润当月同比下降 1.5%(前值-4.3%), 工业企业利润降幅连续收窄。 工业生产保持韧性,价格和利润边际改善。从量、价、利润率三要素来看, o 7 月生产的韧性是带动企业利润降幅收窄的主要动 ...

8月27日，国家统计局官网发布数据显示，7月份，规模以上工业生产保持稳定增长，促进物价水平合理 回升系列政策逐步落地实施，带动企业盈利水平持续恢复。 中小型企业利润改善明显，私营企业利润高于全国平均水平。7月份，规模以上工业中型、小型企业利 润分别由6月份下降7.8%、9.7%转为增长1.8%、0.5%，效益状况改善较为明显。私营企业当月利润增长 2.6%，高于全部规模以上工业企业平均水平4.1个百分点。 于卫宁指出，下阶段，在外部环境不确定因素较多、国内市场需求仍显不足、部分行业供求矛盾突出的 背景下，要全面贯彻落实党中央决策部署，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，进一步扩大国 内需求，强化创新驱动，大力培育新质生产力，促进传统行业转型升级，推动工业经济持续健康发展。 文/北京青年报记者 宋霞 编辑/周超 国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁解读称，工业企业营业收入保持增长，利润降幅持续收窄。7月份，规 模以上工业企业营业收入同比增长0.9%，1—7月份增长2.3%，今年以来营业收入持续增长，为企业盈 利恢复创造有利条件。7月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降1.5%，降幅较6月份收窄2.8个百分点， 连续两个 ...

高技术制造业利润快速增长，引领作用明显。7月份，高技术制造业利润由6月份下降0.9%转为增长 18.9%，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增速较6月份加快2.9个百分点。 "两新"政策实施以来成效明显，带动相关行业利润增长较快 随着稳经济稳就业政策举措落地见效，工业企业利润出现改善。 国家统计局8月27日发布的数据显示，7月份规模以上工业企业利润同比下降1.5%，降幅较6月份收窄2.8 个百分点，连续两个月收窄。1-7月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额40203.5亿元，同比下降 1.7%，降幅较上半年收窄0.1个百分点，企业盈利水平继续好转。 国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁分析，7月份规模以上工业生产保持稳定增长，促进物价水平合理回升 系列政策逐步落地实施，带动企业盈利水平持续恢复。从营业收入扣减营业成本计算的毛利润角度看， 7月份企业毛利润由6月份下降1.3%转为增长0.1%。 数据显示，7月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入同比增长0.9%，1-7月份增长2.3%，今年以来营业收入持 续增长，为企业盈利恢复创造有利条件。 分行业来看，制造业利润较快增长，对规上工业利润恢复贡献较大。7月份，制造业利润同比增长 6 ...

人民财讯8月27日电，据国家统计局，7月份，规模以上工业生产保持稳定增长，促进物价水平合理回升 系列政策逐步落地实施，带动企业盈利水平持续恢复。7月份，制造业利润同比增长6.8%，增速较6月 份加快5.4个百分点，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增速较6月份加快3.6个百分点。从各板块看，原材 料制造业利润由6月份下降5.0%转为增长36.9%，其中钢铁、石油加工行业同比扭亏为盈，当月分别实 现利润总额180.9亿元、34.6亿元；消费品制造业下降4.7%，降幅较6月份收窄3.0个百分点。 ...

（原标题：中电联：7月全国全行业用电指数为139.9） 智通财经APP获悉，8月22日，中电联发布2025年7月全国电力消费系列指数(CNECI)情况。2025年7月， 全国全行业用电指数为139.9，全行业用电量比2020年基期(以2020年基期为100)增长了39.9%，年均增长 6.9%，同比增长6.5%，增速比上月提高1.9个百分点。 充换电服务业用电指数为1039.1，比2020年基期增长了939.1%，年均增长59.7%，同比增长43.6%。在电 动汽车高速发展带动下，"十四五"以来充换电服务业用电量保持高速增长势头。 7月，农林牧渔业用电指数为188.8，比2020年基期增长了88.8%，年均增长13.6%，同比增长20.2%。 7月，服务业用电指数为166.1，比2020年基期增长了66.1%，年均增长10.7%，同比增长10.7%，增速比 上月提高1.7个百分点。其中： 交通运输、仓储和邮政业用电指数为150.7，比2020年基期增长了50.7%，年均增长8.5%，同比增长 9.0%，增速比上月提高3.0个百分点。 信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业用电指数为173.9，比2020年基期增长了7 ...

Economic Performance - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.38%[4] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 6.2%, indicating its core support role in the economy[4] - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.63% in July[4] Sector Analysis - 35 out of 41 industrial categories reported growth, achieving a growth coverage of 85.4%[4] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant increase, with added value growing by 9.3%, led by integrated circuit manufacturing at 26.9%[4] - Real estate development investment from January to July was 53,580 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, marking a historical low[4] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 38.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%[5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in home appliances (+28.7%) and communication equipment (+14.9%), showed strong growth[5] - Service retail sales from January to July increased by 5.2%, driven by summer tourism and sports events[5] Future Outlook - The economic growth rate in the third quarter is expected to be lower than in the second quarter, primarily due to the real estate sector's challenges[5] - Despite potential slowdowns, achieving the annual economic growth target of 5% remains feasible due to ongoing export support and consumption policies[5] - Risks include the possibility of domestic demand recovery being slower than anticipated[5]

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy is being enhanced to further stimulate investment and consumption, with a focus on equipment updates and consumer goods replacement programs [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Growth - The market scale for equipment updates is projected to exceed 5 trillion yuan annually as many existing assets reach their end-of-life [2]. - In 2024, 150 billion yuan of special long-term bonds will support over 4,600 projects across 12 sectors, including industrial and environmental infrastructure [2]. - By 2025, the funding for equipment updates will increase to 200 billion yuan, expanding support to additional sectors such as electronic information and agricultural facilities [2]. Group 2: Equipment Update Impact - The total number of equipment updates in key sectors is expected to surpass 20 million units in 2024, with significant year-on-year growth in related manufacturing sectors [3]. - Industries such as medical equipment and general parts manufacturing have seen profit increases of 12.1% and 9.5% respectively, indicating a positive impact from the equipment update policies [3]. Group 3: Consumer Activation - There is substantial potential for consumer goods replacement, with over 7 million passenger cars and 180 million household appliances exceeding their safe usage period [4]. - In 2024, 150 billion yuan will be allocated to support the replacement of old consumer goods, with the funding increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025 [4]. - The sales generated from consumer goods replacement programs are projected to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024 and 1.6 trillion yuan by mid-2025 [4]. Group 4: Policy Implementation and Support - The government is committed to ensuring the effective use of special long-term bond funds, with 690 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods replacement already distributed [7]. - There is a focus on enhancing the efficiency of project implementation and fund allocation to ensure a smooth execution of the "Two New" policies [7]. - The government aims to create a long-term mechanism for updates and replacements, emphasizing strict supervision and risk management [8].

Group 1: Industrial Profitability - In June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4.8 percentage points compared to May[7] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in June was down 6.9% year-on-year, contributing a 6.9 percentage point drag on profit growth, although this was an improvement from the 10.2 percentage point drag in May[8] - Industrial production showed resilience with a 6.8% year-on-year increase in industrial added value, outperforming May's 5.8%[8] Group 2: Future Profitability Pressure - The second half of 2025 is expected to see continued pressure on corporate profitability due to potential depletion of U.S. demand from prior "import rush" activities[10] - Tariffs have increased costs for enterprises, impacting profit levels, similar to the trend observed during the last U.S.-China trade friction from 2018 to 2019[10] - Multiple industries are pushing for "anti-involution," which may further compress profit margins in sectors with weak downstream demand[25] Group 3: Resilience in Equipment Manufacturing - Equipment manufacturing has shown relative resilience, with profit margins performing better than other sectors since April 2025[26] - The mining industry has maintained a profit margin of around 31% since April 2025, despite revenue growth remaining negative[26] - Companies that have already expanded overseas or are establishing factories abroad are likely to capture more market share amid trade frictions[27][28]

Core Insights - The overall performance of large-scale industrial enterprises in China showed a slight increase in revenue but a decline in profits during the first half of 2023, indicating a mixed economic environment [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Performance - From January to June, large-scale industrial enterprises achieved operating income of 66.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [2]. - The total profit for the same period was 34.365 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% when adjusted for comparable figures [2]. Monthly Trends - In June, the operating income of large-scale industrial enterprises continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 1% [6]. - Profit decline in June was recorded at 4.3%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 4.8 percentage points compared to May [5][6]. Sector Analysis - The equipment manufacturing sector showed significant growth, with operating income increasing by 7% in June and profits turning from a decline of 2.9% in May to a growth of 9.6% [7][8]. - The automotive industry experienced a remarkable profit increase of 96.8%, driven by promotional activities and investment returns [8]. Policy Impact - Government policies have played a crucial role in improving industry profits, with support for new categories and subsidies leading to notable profit improvements in related sectors [9]. - The expansion of domestic demand and anti-competitive measures are expected to further enhance profit recovery in the industrial sector [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the overall performance of industrial enterprises is likely to recover in the third quarter of 2023, supported by favorable policies and improved market conditions [12].

Profit Trends - In the first half of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 34,365.0 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.8% compared to a previous decline of 1.1%[1] - Operating revenue reached CNY 66.78 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, slightly down from 2.7%[1] - In June, profits decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 9.1%[1] Production and Pricing - Industrial production accelerated, with June's industrial added value growing by 6.8% year-on-year, driven by strong export performance and domestic demand during the 618 shopping festival[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, continuing to exert pressure on profit recovery[1] - Profit margins for the first half of 2025 recorded 5.15%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, despite a slight increase of 0.18 percentage points month-on-month[1] Inventory and Receivables - Finished goods inventory reached CNY 6.60 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, indicating a slowdown in nominal inventory growth[1] - The average accounts receivable collection period decreased to 69.8 days in June, the first drop below 70 days in 2025, although it still increased by 3.6 days year-on-year[1] Sector Performance - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 9.6% in June, reversing a previous decline of 2.9% in May, contributing 3.8 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[2] - The "two new" policies positively impacted profits in sectors like medical equipment and consumer goods, with significant profit increases of 160.0% for smart drones and 97.2% for computers[2] - However, downstream consumer goods manufacturing sectors such as furniture and textiles experienced negative profit growth[2]