投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-10-09 ⻓假期间市场平稳，节后关注政策预期 ⻓假期间钢材、钢坯价格维稳为主，铁矿掉期及现货价格⼩幅上涨0. 3-1.3%⽔平，焦炭⾸轮提涨落地，⽽焦煤、合⾦以及玻璃纯碱价格 维稳，整体板块品种价格变动有限。从10⽉上旬⾏业需求表现来 看，依然亮点不⾜，叠加海外关税扰动频发，将限制节后板块品种价 格的上⾏⾼度，同时⾼铁⽔继续⽀撑炉料需求及价格，进⽽稳固钢材 成本。 长假期间钢材、钢坯价格维稳为主，铁矿掉期及现货价格小幅上涨0. 3-1.3%水平，焦炭首轮提涨落地，而焦煤、合金以及玻璃纯碱价格维 稳，整体板块品种价格变动有限。从10月上旬行业需求表现来看，依 然亮点不足，叠加海外关税扰动频发，将限制节后板块品种价格的上 行高度，同时高铁水继续支撑炉料需求及价格，进而稳固钢材成本。 1、铁元素方面，随着三季度结束，部分矿山季末冲量暂告段落、海 外矿山发运环比小幅减量，而国内台风扰动下降，港口到港量环比增 加、符合预期，高铁水下刚需仍有支撑，假期消耗库存为主，部分钢 厂节后有补库计划，整体库存压力不突出。四季度重要会议以及宏 ...

原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：焦企计划首轮提涨 节前注意持仓风险 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 9 月 30 日 逻辑：近两日煤焦期货价格震荡偏弱运行，带动板块整体走弱。现货 方面，多地煤价保持连续小幅反弹后暂稳运行；焦企因成本增加，多地焦 企计划首轮提涨焦价。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，近期唐山市受环保政策影响，要求企业在 9 月底前做 好硬减排措施准备，但本次限产多以自愿为 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | 女女女 | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面继续回落。螺纹表需环比回暖，产量逐渐趋稳，库存继续下降，热卷需求、产量均稍有回落，库存继续小幅累积。铁 水产量仍有上升，产业链负反馈压力缓解，不过吨钢利润欠佳制约进一步复产空间。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅扩大，基 建、制造业增速继续放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。需求预期偏弱，供应层面并 ...

社公司认为可辈的已公开资料、但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观 武附属机构的立场。在任何情况下、报告内容仅供参考、报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价 看看发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士、版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告 · 需注职出处步广发期货： 知识图强,求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | | 产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 292号 2025年9月29日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | 3250 | | | 螺纹钢现货 (华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 3220 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3330 | 3350 | -20 | 3330 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 观望情绪增加，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 多空因素交织，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：根据钢联统计，截至 9 月 26 日当周，全国 523 家 ...

煤焦周度观点 ➢ 阅兵后国内上游产量迅速恢复，蒙煤甘其毛都和策克口岸维持高位通关量，现实供给边际近一周变化较小；但最近供给侧的干预 预期或在政策面消息的影响下表现得较为反复，造成了盘面价格的较大幅度波动。 ◆ 2、需求： Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ➢ 节前对于原料的补库操作已经开启，目前现货需求支撑相对偏强。 ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 海外降息如期宣布，盘面计价此前已较为充分，靴子落地后影响有限；国内宏观预期依然偏强，对黑色估值形成一定支撑。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 从现实基本面来看，供需边际双强，宏观层面亦有国内强预期支撑，短期估值或延续偏强震荡。 煤焦基本面数据变化 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：现实基本面支撑仍存，偏强震荡 ◆ 1、供应： 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind Wind 富宝资讯：、国泰君安期货研究所 资料来源：Mysteel、iFind ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-26 政策仍有预期，基本⾯延续季节性改善 继周内《建材⾏业稳增⻓⽅案》出台后，中国炼焦⾏业协会市场委员 会的会议再度引发市场"反内卷"情绪提升，⽇盘板块多数品种呈现 先抑后扬⾛势，但从⽇内涨跌幅来看，焦炭相对偏强，夜盘时段，虽 然以煤焦为代表，价格⼩幅回落，但炉料需求所对应的铁⽔产出继续 表现强劲，进⽽预计板块品种价格下⾏空间有限。 3、合金方面，旺季期间下游采购需求预期对锰硅价格仍存支撑，但 后市市场供需预期较为悲观、旺季过后锰硅价格中枢仍存下行空间， 关注原料成本的下调幅度。旺季预期及成本坚挺支撑硅铁价格表现， 但硅铁供需关系趋向宽松、旺季过后价格仍存下行压力。 4、玻璃现实需求偏弱，但旺季以及政策预期存在、《建材行业稳增 长方案》出台加强政策预期，中游去库后可能仍有一波震荡反复。中 长期来看仍旧需要市场化去产能，若价格重回基本面交易，则预计震 荡下行。纯碱供给过剩格局没有改变，预计后续跟随宏观变动宽幅震 荡运行。长期来看价格中枢仍将下行，推动产能去化。 整体而言，随着旺季深入，产业链各环节、尤其是中上游环节依 ...

期货日报记者从知情人士处获悉，9月25日上午，中国炼焦行业协会市场委员会召开专题市场分析会，来自山西、河北、内蒙古、河南、江苏、山东、陕 西、宁夏、江西、云南、贵州等地的重点焦化企业代表出席会议。与会人员结合当前宏观经济环境及行业动态，深入分析了焦炭市场的供需格局及价格走 势。 与会企业达成以下决议：一是自9月26日零时起，对钢厂客户执行捣固湿熄焦价格上调50元/吨，捣固干熄焦价格上调55元/吨，顶装湿熄焦价格上调80元/ 吨，顶装干熄焦价格上调85元/吨。二是建议焦炭全行业限产30%以上，对未接受的客户，采取减量或停止发货的方式，共同维护行业利益。建议全体焦 化企业坚持"亏损不生产、亏损不销售、不赊销"原则，坚决维护行业合理利润水平和健康发展秩序。 记者注意到，这两天有不少企业上调焦煤和焦炭价格。 广发期货黑色首席分析师周敏波告诉记者，目前煤焦供需格局偏紧。近期焦煤成交情况好转，竞拍大多溢价成交。焦煤库存在9月有所累积，不过库存结 构出现优化，主要体现在上游煤矿开始去库，下游主动补库，中间商也在焦煤价格短暂下跌后进行采购，库存向下游转移。进入9月，焦炭连续小幅累 库，目前库存总量约915万吨。在铁水产量相对 ...

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions with light positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue to converge [1]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, rebar 05 contract decreased from 3244 to 3212 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased from 3380 to 3340 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of billets and slabs remained unchanged. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions and the profit of rebar in different regions showed various changes, such as the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increasing by 16 [1]. - **Output**: The daily average molten iron output increased slightly by 0.2% to 241.0 tons. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.2% to 855.5 tons, with rebar output decreasing by 2.6% to 206.5 tons and hot - rolled coil output increasing by 0.4% to 326.5 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.3% to 1519.7 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 0.5% to 650.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.3% to 378.0 tons [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8% to 11.5 tons. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 0.8% to 850.3 tons, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.0% to 210.0 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.3% to 321.8 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Iron ore is currently in a tight - balance pattern. It is recommended to view it as oscillating upward. The reference range is 780 - 850. It is suggested to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, such as the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder decreasing from 848.0 to 842.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for various powders decreased significantly, for example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased from 82.0 to 40.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 13.2% to 2675.0 tons, and the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 6.9% to 3324.8 tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 0.6% to 10522.5 tons [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 2.4% to 339.2 tons. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.3 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7736.9 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 0.9% to 13930.97 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.5% to 9309.4 tons, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills increased by 10.0% to 22.0 days [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: For coke, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke decreased by 1.3%. For coking coal, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal increased by 3.3%, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal increased by 2.6% [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly coke output remained unchanged at 762 tons. The daily average output of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1% to 66.7 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 1.3% to 872.5 tons, and the clean coal output increased by 1.8% to 450.6 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly molten iron output increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons, and the weekly coke output remained unchanged at 762 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 1.0% to 915.2 tons. The coke inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 2.1% to 66.4 tons, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.8% to 644.7 tons. The coking coal inventory of full - sample coking plants increased by 6.4% to 940.4 tons, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 790.3 tons [6]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 6.5% to - 3.3 tons [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures indicate a divergence between spot prices and futures, with some coking enterprises starting to raise prices, while the overall market remains cautious due to recent price reductions by steel mills [6] Supply - As of September 18, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 667,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.1 tons, while the average daily production from 247 steel mills was 466,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.1 tons, leading to a total production of 1,134,000 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week [3] Demand - As of September 18, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4102 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.47 tons; the blast furnace operating rate was 83.98%, up by 0.15%; the capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 90.35%, an increase of 0.18%; and the profit margin for steel mills was 58.87%, down by 1.30% [4] Inventory - As of September 18, the total inventory of coking coal was 9.719 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 124,000 tons. Among this, the inventory at independent coking enterprises was 664,000 tons, down by 14,000 tons week-on-week, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.447 million tons, up by 114,000 tons week-on-week, and port inventory was 2.608 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons week-on-week [5] Profitability - The average profit per ton of coking coal for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was -17 yuan; with Shanxi's first-grade coking coal averaging a profit of -12 yuan, Shandong's first-grade coking coal averaging a profit of 34 yuan, Inner Mongolia's second-grade coking coal averaging a loss of 70 yuan, and Hebei's first-grade coking coal averaging a profit of 13 yuan [2] Market Outlook - The market anticipates a gradual rebound in coking coal prices due to improved profitability in coking enterprises and the resumption of production and logistics. The steel industry is expected to maintain stable growth, with a focus on controlling total production and reducing pollution emissions. The upcoming peak season in September and October may provide further support for raw material prices [6]