2025.10. 10 本文字数：2469，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 得益于人们对人工智能（AI）促进增长潜力的兴奋，科技行业正在蓬勃发展。 但如果科技行业未能达到预期，AI会不会重蹈互联网泡沫的覆辙？ 近期，各大国际机构、投行在观察到AI相关产品支出的增加提振全球经济和贸易的同时，也对AI带来的资本热潮正推 动科技股估值快速攀升发出警示。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁格奥尔基耶娃近期表示，全球股价在对AI提升生产率潜力的乐观情绪推动下飙升，但 金融状况可能突然转向，当前估值"正逼近25年前互联网热潮的水平"，若市场发生剧烈回调，将拖累全球增长。 德意志银行（下称"德银"）最近的研究报告显示，AI热潮正在帮助美国经济避免陷入衰退，但这种状况无法无限期持 续。 德银全球外汇研究主管萨拉韦洛斯（George Saravelos）表示，如果没有大型科技企业大量投资建设新AI数据中 心，美国今年将接近经济衰退。 牛津经济研究院也在最新报告中警示，科技行业一直是近期美国经济增长的主要驱动力，其股价飙升，并在设备和软 件方面投入巨资。"但如果科技行业遭遇衰退，美国将面临风险：如果没有科技投资，到2 ...

"AI带来巨大且持续生产力增长的预测可能无法实现。" 得益于人们对人工智能（AI）促进增长潜力的兴奋，科技行业正在蓬勃发展。 但如果科技行业未能达到预期，AI会不会重蹈互联网泡沫的覆辙？ 近期，各大国际机构、投行在观察到AI相关产品支出的增加提振全球经济和贸易的同时，也对AI带来 的资本热潮正推动科技股估值快速攀升发出警示。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁格奥尔基耶娃近期表示，全球股价在对AI提升生产率潜力的乐观情绪推 动下飙升，但金融状况可能突然转向，当前估值"正逼近25年前互联网热潮的水平"，若市场发生剧烈回 调，将拖累全球增长。 德意志银行（下称"德银"）最近的研究报告显示，AI热潮正在帮助美国经济避免陷入衰退，但这种状况 无法无限期持续。 德银全球外汇研究主管萨拉韦洛斯（George Saravelos）表示，如果没有大型科技企业大量投资建设新 AI数据中心，美国今年将接近经济衰退。 牛津经济研究院也在最新报告中警示，科技行业一直是近期美国经济增长的主要驱动力，其股价飙升， 并在设备和软件方面投入巨资。"但如果科技行业遭遇衰退，美国将面临风险：如果没有科技投资，到 2025年上半年，美国国内生产总值（ ...

2025 年 10 月 10 日 分析师：陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 分析师：罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱：luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn SAC 执业证书编号： S0340524070002 电话：0769-22119302 邮箱： chenzhanqian@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 通信行业 超配（维持） 通信行业双周报（2025/9/26-2025/10/9） 行 业 全球电信设备市场止跌复苏 | 1、通信行业行情回顾 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2、产业新闻 | | 4 | | 3、公司公告 | | 5 | | 4、行业数据更新 | | 6 | | 4.1 | 通信运营用户规模数据 | 6 | | 4.2 光纤光缆数据 | | 7 | | 4.3 5G 发展情况 | | 8 | | 5、通信板块本周观点 | | 8 | | 6、风险提示 | | 9 | 投资 ...

另一方面，电信设备股、新消费概念股、稀土概念股普遍上涨，其中，中兴通讯涨3.4%，金力永磁、 沪上阿姨涨超2.4%。 隔夜美股三大指数集体收跌，中概指数跌2.03%。港股三大指数低开，恒指跌0.85%，国指跌0.94%，恒 生科技指数跌1.4%。 盘面上，大型科技股集体下跌，阿里巴巴、百度、京东跌超2%，网易、快手、美团、小米跌超1%，腾 讯跌0.96%，美盘纽约期金跌超1.9%，现货白银涨穿51美元之后回落，黄金股领衔有色金属股回落，中 国黄金国际、紫金黄金国际、山东黄金跌近4%；锂电池股、汽车股、家电股、半导体股、中资券商 股、生物医药股齐跌。 此外，两只新股今日登陆港股市场，金叶国际集团高开500%，公司在公开发售部分获超购超9030倍， 成为港股史上超购倍数最高新股；挚达科技高开183%，公司全球发售597.89万股股份，香港公开发售 占10%，国际发售占90%。(格隆汇) ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 郝倩/发自瑞士日内瓦 世界贸易组织（WTO）10月7日发布最新《全球贸易展望与统计》报告称，2025年上半年全球货物贸易 增速超出预期，主要受人工智能（AI）相关商品需求强劲、北美地区提前进口以规避关税、以及新兴 经济体间贸易活跃等因素推动。 WTO总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦拉（Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala）表示，各国对关税变化的"克制应对"、AI行 业的增长潜力以及新兴经济体间贸易的回暖，缓解了2025年的外部压力。伊韦拉坦言，全球货物贸易的 增长预期比之前高了很多，更不用说4月份的时候还以为货物贸易增长会实现负增长。 在此背景下，WTO将2025年全球货物贸易增长预期从8月份的0.9%上调至2.4%，同时将2026年预期从之 前的1.8%下调至0.5%。作为对比，2025年全球GDP的增长预期为2.7%，2026年为2.6%。 AI产品贡献近半增长 亚洲出口表现强劲 报告显示，2025年上半年全球货物贸易量（以进出口平均值计）同比增长4.9%，以美元计的贸易额增 长6%。AI相关商品——包括半导体、服务器及电信设备——成为 ...

此外，该行认为汇率影响与此前相近。回顾第二季度业绩，当时汇率波动对盈利产生了不利影响。本季 度汇率影响与第二季度相近，瑞典克朗(SEK)将带来小幅负面影响，欧元(EUR)则将带来小幅正面提 振。 摩根士丹利近日针对爱立信(ERIC.US)2025年第三季度业绩发布前瞻报告，核心聚焦Q3业绩预期、业务 调整影响及投资评级。瑞典头部企业爱立信Q3财报将于10月14日正式发布，该公司当前将面临"市场疲 软与业务韧性并存"的格局，摩根士丹利对其维持"中性"评级，目标价80.00瑞典克朗(SEK)。 从市场环境与Q3业绩核心预期看，整体市场增长疲软态势持续，电信客户对资本支出(capex)管控严 格，成为营收增长主要压力源。其中，北美作为爱立信核心市场(营收占比30-40%)，正面临高基数对比 压力——2024年Q3AT&T合同启动交付爬坡推高同期营收，2025年Q3无同等规模新合同支撑，区域营 收增速或受压制，进而拉低整体Q3销售额(预期561.08亿SEK，同比降9.2%)。 不过，移动网络业务成为关键亮点，其利润率韧性超出预期，管理层指引毛利率为48%-50%，较Q2基 础毛利率47%-48%实现环比提升，有望成 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.30%, S&P 500 futures down 0.26%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.32% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX down 0.75%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.01%, France's CAC40 down 0.32%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.41% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.82% to $61.89 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.79% to $66.15 per barrel [4] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The US stock market reached historical highs last week, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with key speeches from Fed officials expected this week [5] - The market is closely watching the upcoming inflation data, with expectations that the core PCE price index will show a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5] Technology Sector Impact - The increase in H-1B visa fees to $100,000 has raised concerns in the tech industry, particularly in California, where companies rely heavily on skilled foreign workers [5] - Despite this, optimism remains in the tech sector, with analysts suggesting that the recent market rally could continue, particularly for large tech stocks [5] Investment Strategies - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed's rate cuts will extend the bull market in US stocks, recommending investments in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and finance [6] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 6200 points by the end of 2025, indicating potential for further gains if inflation continues to decline [6] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced significant sell-offs, with over $15 billion in long positions liquidated, leading to a drop in total market capitalization below $400 billion [7] - Ethereum and Bitcoin experienced sharp declines, with Ethereum's price dropping nearly 9% at one point [7] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a new record high of $3728.26 per ounce, driven by rising expectations for interest rate cuts, while silver also saw significant gains, reaching a 14-year high [8] Corporate News - Pfizer announced a $4.9 billion acquisition of Metsera to strengthen its obesity drug pipeline, with a 43% premium over Metsera's last closing price [9][10] - Nvidia partnered with Abu Dhabi's TII to establish the first AI technology center in the Middle East, focusing on next-generation AI models and robotics [10] - Vodafone signed a £2 billion contract with Ericsson and Nokia to expand its network coverage in the UK, addressing the need for revenue in a sluggish mobile market [11] - BBVA increased its offer by 10% to acquire Banco Sabadell, valuing the deal at approximately €17 billion ($20 billion) [12] - Roche's new breast cancer drug showed positive results in a Phase III trial, potentially extending progression-free survival for patients [13] Strategic Focus - HSBC is shifting its strategic focus towards Asia and the Middle East, recognizing the significant capital flow and wealth in these regions [13]

Core Viewpoint - Mavenir's CEO warns that without support from "brownfield" operators, Open RAN may face extinction, leading to a monopoly by Ericsson and Nokia outside of China [1][4] Group 1: Open RAN Development - Open RAN was officially launched in early 2018 with the establishment of the O-RAN Alliance, aimed at creating more open interfaces to foster competition among suppliers [3] - Since the formation of the O-RAN Alliance, there have been few new "greenfield" network projects, with the largest network owned by Echostar set to retire after selling spectrum licenses to AT&T and SpaceX [3][4] - Major existing "brownfield" operators show a lack of interest in Open RAN, preferring traditional suppliers like Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia, whose RAN market share increased from 75.1% in 2023 to 77.4% [4] Group 2: Market Competition - Nokia's mobile networks president asserts that competition in the market is more intense than critics suggest, with companies like Samsung, Fujitsu, and NEC also participating [5] - Omdia reports that Samsung held a 4.8% share of the RAN market last year, ranking as the fifth-largest supplier, while NEC and Fujitsu had shares of 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively [5] Group 3: Technological Integration - Nokia claims to have integrated its baseband technology with multiple manufacturers' radio units, including Mavenir and a Korean RF unit manufacturer [6] - Nokia's MantaRay platform allows operators to manage RAN from different suppliers, addressing concerns about multi-vendor integration in Open RAN [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite positive remarks from Nokia regarding Open RAN's progress, concerns remain among large telecom operators about the sub-industry's prospects, with projected annual spending on RAN products declining by 22% from 2022 to 2024 [12] - Smaller suppliers like Mavenir may struggle to compete against larger companies like Fujitsu and NEC, which have the backing of larger electronic firms [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - ZTE Corporation has reported a double-digit revenue growth in its semi-annual report, indicating a strategic shift towards "connection + computing power" amidst a challenging global telecom equipment market, with AI playing a crucial role in this transformation [1][2]. Revenue Growth - In the first half of 2025, ZTE achieved revenue of 71.55 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with second-quarter revenue and net profit both showing growth compared to the first quarter [1]. - The revenue gap between ZTE and Nokia has narrowed to 5%, approximately 3.5 billion yuan, suggesting a potential for ZTE to surpass Nokia in the near future [2]. Strategic Development - ZTE's "connection + computing power" strategy has allowed the company to diversify its revenue streams, with computing power and terminal revenues growing nearly 100% year-on-year, now accounting for over 35% of total revenue [1][3]. - The company has maintained its market share in traditional operator network business while expanding into future technology areas such as 5G-A and 10G access, thereby stabilizing its revenue base [3]. AI Integration - ZTE has integrated AI into its network and computing infrastructure, enhancing product competitiveness and establishing a comprehensive AI empowerment system [5]. - The company has filed nearly 5,500 AI-related patents globally, with about 50% granted, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [5]. Market Opportunities - The AI infrastructure market is projected to grow significantly, with capital expenditures expected to remain strong, and the AI hardware and software market anticipated to grow at an annual rate of 40%-55% [4]. - Major tech companies are increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, with Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta expected to spend over $300 billion by 2025 [4]. Product Development - ZTE has launched various AI-integrated products targeting both individual consumers and enterprises, including smartphones and AI home devices, while also developing solutions for over 18 vertical industries [7]. - The company has achieved significant sales milestones, such as over 1 million units of its cloud computer and a 70% market share in operator services [3][7]. Challenges and Strategies - ZTE faces challenges similar to other companies, including pressure on profit margins due to intense competition in the computing power market [8]. - The company plans to enhance revenue scale in computing products, increase self-research ratios, and shift from single product sales to comprehensive solutions to improve profit margins [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant underperformance of major companies in the takeaway industry, leading to pressure on the Hong Kong tech sector, despite increased market investment activity [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) experienced a net inflow of 1.028 billion yuan on August 28, 2025, with a total of 1.794 billion yuan accumulated over three days, pushing its scale to a historical high of 35.887 billion yuan [1] - The average daily trading volume of the Hang Seng Tech ETF over the last five trading days reached 7.670 billion yuan, significantly higher than the average of 3.9 billion yuan in July, indicating strong market interest [1][2] Group 2 - The overall adjustment in the Hong Kong tech sector is primarily driven by the performance disruptions in the takeaway business, with current stock prices likely reflecting this negative factor [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index, closely tracked by the Hang Seng Tech ETF, is diversified with a weight of only 39.67% in its top five constituent stocks, which may help mitigate individual stock volatility risks [2] - As of August 28, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index stands at 21.89, which is at a relatively low percentile of 23.77% over the past five years, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [2]