有色板块研发报告 硅调研报告 2025 年 9 月 30 日 银河期货 第 1 页 共 5 页 有色板块研发报告 硅调研报告 2025 年 9 月 30 日 第 2 页 共 5 页 有色板块研发报告 硅调研报告 2025 年 9 月 30 日 第 3 页 共 5 页 有色板块研发报告 硅调研报告 2025 年 9 月 30 日 第 4 页 共 5 页 有色板块研发报告 硅调研报告 2025 年 9 月 30 日 第 5 页 共 5 页 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 . | 3万吨 ， | 环比有所增加1 . | 09% 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 . | 6万吨 环比增长7 ， | 50% . . | 需求有所抬升 . | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为22 6万吨 . | 处于高位 ， ， | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片亏损 ， | 组件盈利 ； | | | | | | | 有 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still bearish, and a short - selling strategy during rebounds is recommended. For glass, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. In the fourth quarter, the implementation of policies and the load regulation of soda ash plants should be tracked [1]. Logs - The log market is in a volatile pattern. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, the improvement of shipment volume should be observed. Currently, the market lacks a strong upward driving force, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [3]. Industrial Silicon - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is shifting to a more relaxed state. In the short term, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the price may fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [4]. Polysilicon - The supply - side regulation effect of polysilicon is not as expected, and the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. Before the National Day holiday, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Policies on capacity clearance and industry storage, as well as the actual operation rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, should be followed [5]. Natural Rubber - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market has no obvious long - short contradictions, and the trading atmosphere is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. The raw material output in the peak - production period of the main producing areas and the possible impact of La Nina should be monitored [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in different regions remained unchanged, while glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 declined. Soda ash prices in different regions were stable, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased slightly. The basis of some contracts increased [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased. Photovoltaic daily melting volume and the price of 3.2mm coated film remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [1]. Market Situation - The over - supply problem still exists. Although the factory inventory has decreased, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches. The weekly production remains high, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. For glass, the deep - processing orders are still weak [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Some log futures contracts fluctuated slightly, and the prices of some spot logs increased. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. Supply - The monthly port shipment volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased. The inventory in major ports decreased [3]. Demand - The average daily shipment volume increased [3]. Market Situation - The log market is in a volatile state, with low trading volume. The short - term upward driving force is lacking [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some industrial silicon products decreased slightly, and the basis of some products increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - The production of industrial silicon, organic silicon DMC, and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon increased [4]. Inventory - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. The social inventory remained unchanged [4]. Market Situation - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is becoming more relaxed. The price may fluctuate in a certain range in the short term [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, and the basis of N - type materials increased [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main futures contract of polysilicon decreased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon increased. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed [5]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [5]. Market Situation - The over - capacity problem of polysilicon persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range before the holiday [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some natural rubber products decreased, and the basis and non - standard price difference changed [6]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of natural rubber contracts changed significantly [6]. Fundamental Data - The production of natural rubber in some countries in July changed. The tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber increased [6]. Inventory - The bonded area inventory and factory futures inventory of natural rubber decreased [6]. Market Situation - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market is in a volatile state. The supply may increase due to reduced rainfall in Southeast Asia, and the demand faces export and domestic sales pressure [6].

整体而言，本周工业硅市场上下游仍处于博弈阶段，市场供需依旧呈现紧平衡态 势，强预期弱现实的局面未发生根本性改变。但预计未来随着枯水期的来临，成本上 涨以及市场供需紧张的局面将愈发显著。 本周工业硅期货价格有所回升。在过去一周（ 9 月 18 日至 9 月 24 日），主力合约 2511 收盘价从 8905 元 / 吨震荡上行至 9020 元 / 吨，累计上涨 115 元 / 吨。同时，根据 安泰科采集价格统计，全国工业硅综合价格 9207 元 / 吨，较上周上涨 31 元 / 吨。分牌 号来看， 553# 工业硅价格为 8757 元 / 吨，上涨 49 元 / 吨； 441# 工业硅价格为 9092 元 / 吨，与上周持平； 421# 工业硅价格为 9672 元 / 吨，上涨 14 元 / 吨。地区方面，新 疆、云南和四川的工业硅综合价格分别为 8848 元 / 吨、 9753 元 / 吨和 9950 元 / 吨。 FOB 价格与上周持平。 成本支撑与乐观需求预期是支撑本周工业硅现货价格小幅上扬的主要因素。供应层 面：四川和云南地区即将步入枯水期，电价上涨势在必行，加之硅煤价格存在上涨预 期，生产企业的挺价意 ...

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年09月23日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 震荡区间：8000-9000 | 32.0% | 87.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 硅产业企业风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | | 套保比例 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售工业硅 未来有生产工业硅的计划，担心销售工业硅时价格下跌导致销售利 润减少的风险 | 为防止价格下跌 导致销售利润减 少，企业需在采 | 期货 | 依据生产计划卖出对应期货合约 | 40% | 根据销售利润 | | | | 到原料的同时卖 | | | | | | | | 出期 ...

期货研究院 新能源产业链日度策略 New Energy Industry Chain Daily Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月22日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，周一SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格73842元/吨，环比上 一工作日上涨308元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.32-7.45万元/吨，均价7. 385万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨350元/吨；工业级碳酸锂7.1-7. 22万元/吨，均价7.16万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨350元/吨，现 货成交价格持续震荡上行态势。 据SMM ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply production schedule has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8815 - 9085 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production schedule continues to decrease, while the demand for wafers, cells, and components continues to increase. Overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50040 - 51940 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, wafers and cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a high level, with a production profit of - 447 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工 rate of 71.12%, flat week - on - week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3050 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 22, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% week - on - week increase; sample enterprise inventory is 174,950 tons, a 0.57% week - on - week increase; major port inventory is 120,000 tons, an 0.84% week - on - week increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a 3.79% month - on - month decrease. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons [8]. - Demand: Last week, the wafer output was 13.92GW, a 0.28% week - on - week increase, and the inventory was 168,700 tons, a 1.93% week - on - week increase. Currently, wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 57.53GW, a 2.73% month - on - month increase. The cell output in August was 58.27GW, a 0.13% month - on - month increase [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On September 22, the basis of the 11 - contract was 1660 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% week - on - week decrease, at a low level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: Most contract prices of industrial silicon futures decreased compared to the previous value, while some spot prices increased slightly [14]. - Inventory: Various types of inventories, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, showed different degrees of increase [14]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly output of sample enterprises increased, and the output in Xinjiang increased significantly [14]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of industrial silicon in different regions showed different trends, with some regions in a loss state [14]. Polysilicon - Price: Most contract prices of polysilicon futures decreased compared to the previous value, and the prices of wafers, cells, and components showed different degrees of stability or slight changes [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of wafers decreased, while the inventory of cells increased, and the inventory of components decreased [16]. - Production and Demand: The production of wafers, cells, and components increased, and the export of cells increased significantly [16].

Core Viewpoint - Recent industrial silicon prices are influenced by supply-side policies, with market sentiment rising due to rumors of potential environmental production limits in Xinjiang and strict quality control of industrial silicon warehouse receipts [1] Supply Side - Industrial silicon production costs are increasing despite a decrease in quartzite prices, driven by rising prices of petroleum coke and premium coal [1] - There has been no significant progress in supply-side reforms for industrial silicon, and without production constraints, high prices may stimulate a rebound in production [1] Demand Side - The demand for industrial silicon has been strong, driven by high prices of polysilicon stimulating production and pre-holiday stocking needs [1] - The complete cost of industrial silicon has shifted to a range of 8,800-9,300 yuan/ton, which may serve as a central axis for price fluctuations [1] Market Outlook - Despite the upward shift in industrial silicon prices, the market is expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation due to limited terminal demand and a significant amount of new production capacity awaiting commissioning [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is slow, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to be stable in the medium - term, demand is gradually recovering, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [6][8][10]. - The main logic for the market is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to an oversupply situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors such as cost support and inventory levels affecting the market [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease. The inventory of polysilicon, silicone, and aluminum alloy ingots is at different levels, with silicone and aluminum alloy ingots at high levels [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season, with a production loss of 3237 yuan/ton for sample oxygen - passing 553 [6]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 195 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased, which is bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule is increasing, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The price of industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035 [8]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase. The demand side shows that the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has different changes, and the current production of silicon wafers is in a loss state [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. Although the production is increasing, it is currently in a loss state [10]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 605 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase, at a low level in the same period, which is neutral [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [10]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule will decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term. Demand is gradually recovering, and cost support is stable. The price of polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased, and spot prices remained unchanged. Inventory increased, and production and some regions' operating rates also changed [16]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased. The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed, and the export of photovoltaic cells increased [18]. 3.4 Price and Basis Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report shows the trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [20]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the trends of the disk price and the basis of the main contract [23]. 3.5 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory in various regions and warehouses increased. The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also changed [16][26][28]. - **Polysilicon**: The total inventory increased, and the production and operating rates of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [10][18]. 3.6 Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang are presented [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The cost trend of the polysilicon industry is shown [62]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [36][39]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon [65]. 3.8 Downstream Market Analysis - **Organic Silicon**: Analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42][44][49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Analyzes the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy [52][55][57]. - **Polysilicon Downstream**: Analyzes the cost, price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and related accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry [62][68][71].

据隆众资讯样本数据统计推算，本周全国工业硅产量约为8.40万吨，全国工业硅产能利用率为57.85%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...