交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | | 1万吨 . | ， | 环比持平 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | | | 环比减少4 ， | 76% . . | 需求持续低迷 | 多 . | | | | | | | 晶硅库存为27 1万吨 . | ， | 处于低位 | ， | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片亏损 | 组件盈利 ， | 有 ； | | | | | | | ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251124：上方承压 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/24 近期趋势 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 | | | | | | 元/吨 | 期货主力合约收盘价 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 8,960.00 390.00 | -1.27% 115.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 53,360.00 | 1.73% | | 元/吨 | 基差 | | -2,360.00 | -910.00 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side has a slight reduction in production scheduling, around the historical average. Demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8970 - 9180 for the 2601 contract [3][6]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term production scheduling on the supply side is reduced, with a mid - term recovery expected. The demand side shows a continuous decline in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production, indicating a continuous decline in overall demand. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51620 - 53280 for the 2601 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, organic silicon is in a loss state with a 72.18% comprehensive utilization rate, and the aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - **Basis**: On November 20, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 177,800 tons, a 3.01% increase; the main port inventory is 127,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 27,100 tons, a 1.11% increase from the previous week. The predicted production scheduling for November is 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 5.13%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On November 20, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 150 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 271,000 tons, a 1.49% increase from the previous week, at a low level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, changing from long to short [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract dropping 3.35% to 9,075 yuan/ton [15]. - The price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton [15]. - The social inventory decreased by 1.09% to 546,000 tons, and the sample enterprise inventory increased by 3.01% to 177,800 tons [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract dropping 3.98% to 52,450 yuan/ton [17]. - The weekly total inventory increased by 1.50% to 271,000 tons [17]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance sheets are presented [19][25][26][33][35]. - **Polysilicon**: The disk price trends, fundamental trends, supply - demand balance sheets, and trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented [22][59][62][65]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Trends - **Organic Silicon**: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products are presented [41][43][46]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends are presented [49][52][54]. - **Polysilicon**: The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand trends, as well as the trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and photovoltaic accessories, are presented [59][65][68][71][74].

| 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 支撑位：8000 | 27.9% | 72.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 硅产业企业风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | | 套保比例 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售工业硅 未来有生产工业硅的计划，担心销售工业硅时价格下跌导致销售利 润减少的风险 | | 为防止价格下跌 导致销售利润减 少，企业需在采 | 期货 | 依据生产计划卖出对应期货合约 | 40% | 根据销售利润 | | | | | 到原料的同时卖 | | | | | | | | | 出期货合约锁定 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入看跌期权 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 点评 18 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8980 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.88%，持仓 减仓 3530 手至 24.8 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9675 元/吨，较上一交易 日上涨 10 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8950 元/吨，现货贴水收至 50 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 52210 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.67%，持仓增仓 848 手至 13.7 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 52300 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格在 523000 元/吨，现货对主力贴水转至升水 90 元 /吨。西南硅厂持续减产持货不卖，成交集中在新疆点价单和天津贸易为 主。当前供应紧缩和成本提升给予工业硅底部支撑，由于下游同步减产阻 遏向上空间，工业硅延续震荡调整节奏。行业会议召开，多晶硅产能收储 平台出现变动。由于央视报道行业反内卷成效显著，叠加光伏协会持续发 声，淡化部分负面情绪。因下游订单收缩，硅片率先减产降价，给予多晶 硅上行压力，同时在现货坚持挺价基础上，底部位置稳定。晶硅顶底分 明，区间内波 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to gradually peak, and the risk of further inventory accumulation will ease, with supply - side pressure gradually decreasing marginally. The industry is in a wide - range weak - oscillation stage with no significant driving force currently [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited downward space for costs. Negative factors are the decline in production of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, weakening demand [4][5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of "November concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation". The market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand", and the overall risk is relatively high [7]. - Positive factors include the potential for an industry capacity integration and clearance plan to improve the industrial pattern. Negative factors are the possible continuous inventory accumulation if the plan fails to materialize [8]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8980 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-1.10%) daily and 200 yuan (-2.18%) weekly. The trading volume is 304,628 lots, up 32,817 lots (12.07%) daily but down 22,146 lots (-6.78%) weekly. The open interest is 248,019 lots, down 3,530 lots (-1.40%) daily and 22,940 lots (-8.47%) weekly [9]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 44,022 lots, down 1,323 lots (-2.92%) daily and 2,233 lots (-4.83%) weekly [9]. 2. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions show different trends. For example, the price of 99 and 553 in Xinjiang remains unchanged, while the price of 553 in Tianjin drops by 50 yuan (-0.53%) daily and weekly [16]. - The price of organic silicon DMC rises by 1,600 yuan (14.35%) weekly, while the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 drops by 100 yuan (-0.46%) daily and 50 yuan (-0.23%) weekly [16]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 44,022 lots, down 1,323 lots from the previous period, with a decline rate of 7.32%. The warehouse receipt quantities in different delivery warehouses show different changes [27]. Polysilicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52,210 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan (-0.85%) daily but up 280 yuan (0.54%) weekly. The trading volume is 173,704 lots, down 76,062 lots (-30.45%) daily and 150,894 lots (-46.49%) weekly. The open interest is 137,091 lots, up 848 lots (0.62%) daily but down 1,377 lots (-0.99%) weekly [28]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 8,190 lots, up 70 lots (0.9%) daily but down 1,660 lots (-16.85%) weekly [28]. 2. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon shows little change. For example, the price of N - type re - feeding material is 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan (0.19%) [41]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers drops. The silicon wafer price index is 1.27 yuan/piece, down 0.03 yuan (-3.00%) daily and 0.02 yuan (-2.00%) weekly [43]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 655 yuan/ton, up 1,390 yuan (-67.97%) daily and 1,065 yuan (-61.92%) weekly [53]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 8,190 lots, up 70 lots from the previous day [53].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 点评 17 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 9080 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.11%，持仓 增仓 247 手至 25.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9685 元/吨，较上一交易 日上涨 2 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8950 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 145 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 52655 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.9%，持仓减仓 8948 手至 13.6 手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 52300 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格在 523000 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 355 元/ 吨。西南硅厂持续减产持货不卖，成交集中在新疆点价单和天津贸易为 主。当前供应紧缩和成本提升给予工业硅底部支撑，由于下游同步减产阻 遏向上空间，工业硅延续震荡调整节奏。行业会议召开，多晶硅产能收储 平台出现变动。由于央视报道行业反内卷成效显著，叠加光伏协会持续发 声，淡化部分负面情绪。因下游订单收缩，硅片率先减产降价，给予多晶 硅上行压力，同时在现货坚持挺价基础上，底部位置稳定。晶硅顶底分 明，区间内波动率较 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply was 91,000 tons last week with no change from the previous week, while demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has risen during the dry season. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8930 - 9110 [7]. - For polysilicon, last week's production decreased by 0.74% to 26,800 tons, and the November production plan is expected to decrease by 10.37% compared to the previous month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53285 - 54805 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy shows different trends [7]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is at a loss of 2874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [7]. - Basis: On November 14th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 330 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,600 tons, a 0.35% increase; and the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged [7]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20 [7]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8]. - Expectation: The supply production plan has decreased, and the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has increased. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8930 - 9110 [8]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 26,800 tons, a 0.74% decrease, and the November production plan is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease compared to the previous month [10]. - Demand: The production and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are all in a downward trend, and the silicon wafer production is currently in a loss state [10]. - Cost: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On November 14th, the N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1745 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.08% increase, and it is at a low level compared to historical data [10]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [10]. - Expectation: The supply production plan continues to decrease, the demand shows a continuous decline, and the cost support remains stable. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53285 - 54805 [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon market data includes prices, inventories, production, and opening rates of different contracts and regions. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.37% to 9020 yuan/ton, and the weekly social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.09% decrease [16]. - Polysilicon market data includes prices, inventories, production, and export/import data of different contracts and downstream products. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 0.28% to 54,045 yuan/ton, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5 GW [18].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 16 日 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面仍具备上行驱动 多晶硅：下周成都行业大会，关注情绪提振 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面价格区间震荡，现货价格持平；多晶硅盘面先跌后涨，现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面呈区间震荡，周中在供需改善下有所抬升，但周五受有机硅减产预期 等影响而回落，周五收于 9020 元/吨。现货市场价格持平，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8850 元/吨（环比不 变），内蒙 99 硅报价 9100 元/吨(环比不变)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面先跌后涨，市场交易政策不及预期、供需走弱的叙事，但后半周协会 发文辟谣、硅片厂集体挺价，盘面再次上涨抬升，周五盘面收于 54045 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看，上游 报价持续坚挺，下周四川开会或有下游成交补库。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存去库；多晶硅上游库存累库 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存小幅去库。据咨询商统计，本周西南地区及新疆地区开工减少，内蒙河南 开工小增，整体周产环减。具体而言，西南地区，1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 13, industrial silicon showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.22%. The position increased by 5,622 lots to 268,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,692 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 remained stable at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 205 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon showed a strong oscillation. The main contract 2601 closed at 54,195 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.69%. The position increased by 3,409 lots to 144,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 2,195 yuan/ton [2]. - Silicon plants in the southwest region have significantly reduced production. However, due to simultaneous production cuts in the downstream, the inventory reduction rhythm has not been achieved. The futures market has priced in the production - cut expectation in advance and has pulled back due to the drag of crystalline silicon [2]. - In November, the production schedules of polysilicon materials and downstream silicon wafers have both declined. The planned production - cut scale of silicon materials exceeds that of the downstream. However, under the strong quota limit of silicon wafers, the production - cut rhythm is ahead of the upstream [2]. - As the impact of the polysilicon production capacity platform news fades, the short - term weak reality has led the futures market to enter a low - level consolidation stage. A industry meeting was held, and CCTV reported on the same day that the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry had achieved remarkable results, which diluted the negative sentiment related to the production capacity platform [2]. - The polysilicon futures market is dominated by multiple news, and its volatility continues to increase. It is recommended that investors exercise caution [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,145 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 9,155 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained stable. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 549 to 45,387, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 5,365 to 230,900 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 4,700 tons to 447,700 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 735 yuan/ton to 54,195 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract remained unchanged at 51,335 yuan/ton. All spot prices remained stable. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 720 to 9,130, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 29.55 million tons, and the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.1 million tons to 27.7 million tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil all increased, with increases of 1,400 yuan/ton, 1,000 yuan/ton, 1,000 yuan/ton, and 2,200 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][25]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [28][30][35].