对此，该私募创始人、CEO梁宏直接在周报中发文致歉。他在周报中坦言，本轮回撤的首要原因在于个 股问题，其次则是科技互联网板块的股票波动较大，但具体持仓了哪些股票，他并不想透露，只是承认 这波回撤幅度过大，"让人失望"，并对此深表歉意。 【文/羽扇观金工作室】 据智通财经24日报道，希瓦资产在21日发布的周报中披露，旗下多数基金预估净值下跌约7%，从最高 点算起累计回撤约20%，其间产品表现明显跑输主要指数。 梁宏直言，本轮回撤主要来自三方面：第一，重仓的创新药板块下跌，而在高位时没有根据价值兑现大 部分仓位，卖出决策也不够果断，导致后续卖出价格不佳；第二，第一重仓的硬件龙头公司跌幅超过 37%，而在高位估值仍合理的阶段不应继续维持过高仓位；第三，前几个月重仓美股稳定币板块，却忽 略了加密货币转入熊市的三大风险，这笔操作成为今年最大失误。 东方财富网 11月24日，小米集团在港交所发布公告称，小米集团创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军个人斥资超1亿港元增 持小米集团260万股，雷军持股比例增加至23.26%。本月，小米集团连续两日大手笔回购公司股票2150 万股，总斥资金额超8亿港币。今年以来，小米集团累计回购金额已超 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for the Indian market, indicating a more attractive position compared to other regional markets [6][4]. Core Insights - The global economic growth forecast has been raised, with expectations of nearly 3% growth in 2025-2026, benefiting from policy easing and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - Northeast Asian stock markets have shown strong performance, with South Korea, China, and Japan rising by 80%, 35%, and 25% respectively, driven primarily by the technology sector [1][3]. - The technology sector is crucial in Northeast Asia, with approximately 80% of market capitalization linked to AI-related revenues, contributing over 90% of index gains this year [1][7][8]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to see significant profit improvements due to supply-demand imbalances in DRAM and NAND sectors [9][21]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for stock markets, with good economic growth, declining interest rates, and a weakening dollar [2]. - Global GDP growth is projected to be close to 3% in 2025 and 2026, supported by widespread policy easing [2]. Market Performance - Northeast Asia has outperformed, with notable gains in South Korea, China, and Japan, primarily driven by the technology sector [3][4]. - The Indian market is viewed positively despite high valuations, with a significant growth gap compared to other regions [6]. Currency and Investment Strategies - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate by about 3% over the next 12 months, suggesting a favorable environment for stock investments [5]. - Investors are advised to consider down protection strategies in light of potential market corrections [18][19]. Technology Sector Outlook - The global technology sector outlook remains optimistic, particularly in cloud computing and large-scale capital investments, which will benefit the Asian supply chain [9]. - Demand for smartphones, servers, and AI PCs is strong, with significant growth expected in these markets [10]. Geopolitical and Industrial Trends - The U.S. re-industrialization process presents investment opportunities in Asia, particularly in key markets like China, Japan, and Australia [17]. - China is increasing investments in advanced manufacturing to enhance its position in the global supply chain [15][16]. Future Investment Themes - The report highlights the importance of diversification in investment strategies, with a shift in focus from the U.S. to other regions offering attractive opportunities [23].

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is experiencing an unprecedented "super cycle" driven by AI demand and supply shortages, significantly impacting the profit outlook for PC and server manufacturers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Surge and Impact - Morgan Stanley warns that storage chip prices are skyrocketing due to AI demand and supply constraints, with DRAM spot prices soaring over 260% in just two months [1][5]. - The report indicates that the cost of storage chips (NAND and DRAM) constitutes 10%-70% of the BOM for high-end products, leading to a potential decline in hardware OEM gross margins by 45 to 150 basis points for every 10% increase in storage chip prices [3][6]. - The current price surge is unprecedented, with NAND flash prices rising over 50% since the beginning of the year [5][6]. Group 2: Drivers of Price Increase - The price surge is primarily driven by accelerated procurement from large cloud service providers for AI infrastructure, a spike in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI accelerators, and insufficient investment in NAND capacity over the past few years [6][10]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that contract prices for both NAND and DRAM could see double-digit percentage increases each quarter until 2026, far exceeding the previous cycle from 2016-2018 [6][10]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparison - The previous storage super cycle from 2016 to 2018 serves as a reference point, where OEM margins and stock valuations began to decline 6 to 12 months after prices started to rise [8][10]. - Key differences in the current cycle include a more rapid price increase and a weaker demand environment for non-AI hardware compared to the previous cycle [10][11]. Group 4: Company Ratings and Vulnerabilities - Morgan Stanley has downgraded ratings for several major hardware companies, citing dual pressures on profits and valuations [12][13][14]. - Dell Technologies was downgraded from "Overweight" to "Underweight," with a target price cut from $144 to $110, due to significant impacts from rising storage costs [13]. - HP's rating was lowered from "Market Perform" to "Underweight," with a target price adjustment from $26 to $24, as profit margin pressures overshadow market recovery [14]. - Lenovo's rating was adjusted from "Overweight" to "Market Perform," as over 60% of its PC business targets the enterprise market, which is better positioned to pass on cost increases [17]. Group 5: Market Segmentation and Resilience - Different hardware manufacturers face varying levels of risk, with PC and server manufacturers more exposed due to their reliance on DRAM [18][20]. - Companies like Apple and Pure Storage are viewed as more resilient due to strong supply chain negotiation power and better pricing capabilities [20]. - Memory chip manufacturers such as Micron Technology, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics are expected to be direct beneficiaries of this super cycle [20].

Core Insights - A significant "super cycle" in storage chips is impacting the profit outlook for PC and server manufacturers, with Morgan Stanley warning of severe profit margin erosion due to skyrocketing storage chip prices [1][2][3] Price Surge and Market Dynamics - The current price surge in storage chips is driven by increased demand from AI infrastructure, a shift towards high bandwidth memory (HBM), and insufficient investment in NAND flash memory [2][7] - DRAM spot prices have surged over 260% in the past two months, while NAND flash prices have increased by over 50% since the beginning of the year [3][7] Historical Context and Comparison - The previous storage super cycle from 2016 to 2018 serves as a reference point, where OEM profit margins and stock valuations faced pressure after a similar price increase [9][11] - Key differences in the current cycle include a more rapid price increase and a weaker demand environment for non-AI hardware compared to the previous cycle [11][13] Impact on Hardware Manufacturers - Morgan Stanley has downgraded ratings for several global hardware giants, predicting dual pressure on profits and valuations [14] - PC and server manufacturers, particularly those heavily reliant on DRAM, are identified as the most vulnerable, with Dell, HP, Asus, and Acer being the most affected [15][17] Company-Specific Ratings Changes - Dell Technologies: Downgraded from "Overweight" to "Underweight," target price reduced from $144 to $110 due to severe impact from rising storage costs [17] - HP Inc.: Downgraded from "Market Perform" to "Underweight," target price lowered from $26 to $24 as profit margin pressures offset market recovery [17] - Asus: Downgraded from "Market Perform" to "Underweight," target price cut from NT$625 to NT$500 due to reliance on price-sensitive consumer markets [17] - Lenovo Group: Downgraded from "Overweight" to "Market Perform," with over 60% of its PC business targeting the enterprise market, which is better positioned to absorb cost increases [17]

Core Insights - The theme of the event is "AI Without Boundaries, New Life for All" and it marks the 14th year of Maker Faire Shenzhen, which was introduced to the city in 2012 [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The summit features two innovation forums, one maker super-evolution live event, 145 cutting-edge technology application displays, and 29 industry innovation and interactive experience workshops [3] - Participants include technology leaders, maker pioneers, industry experts, and university teams from over 30 countries, showcasing nearly a thousand hardware projects in various fields such as smart manufacturing, smart agriculture, smart cities, and cultural entertainment [3] Group 2: Key Highlights - The integration of AI and hardware has transitioned from concept to practical application, with a focus on modular hardware and open-source collaboration driving the democratization of edge AI [4] - A significant number of robotics applications were showcased, emphasizing embodied intelligence as a focal point of innovation, indicating a shift of AI from the cloud to physical entities [4] - Notable products include the Reachy Mini desktop robot from Hugging Face, which features dynamic antennas and small display screens for AI application development, and the Centauri Carbon 2 3D printer from ELEGOO, capable of supporting high-temperature materials [4] Group 3: Discussions and Perspectives - A panel of 15 influential innovators discussed how AI can be implemented in low-power, high-efficiency ways across various sectors, including medical diagnostics, industrial automation, and smart agriculture, benefiting remote and developing regions [6] - The summit aims to provide a platform for makers to showcase their creativity and spirit, promoting a global "super-evolution" in the maker community [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent Pre-A round financing of Makera, a domestic consumer-grade CNC innovation company, highlighting its potential in the global maker and small business market [5][11]. Company Overview - Makera, established in 2019, provides intelligent and user-friendly digital manufacturing tools for global makers, small businesses, and educational institutions [5]. - The company has launched two generations of CNC devices, with its flagship product, Carvera, being the world's first smart desktop CNC product. The second-generation Carvera Air achieved a crowdfunding success of 3.47 million USD [5]. Market Potential - The article notes significant revenue figures from competitors, such as over 5 billion RMB for拓竹 and over 2 billion RMB for xTool, indicating the vast potential of the overseas maker community and small business entrepreneurs [6]. - Makera plans to release its third product, Makera Z1, in Q4 2025, targeting a price point of around 1,000 USD while delivering professional-grade processing capabilities [6]. Product Features - Makera aims to adapt industrial-grade CNC technology for consumer use, exemplified by the Carvera's integration of an industrial closed-loop control system, achieving a processing precision of 0.01 mm [8]. - The automatic tool-changing system and built-in dust collection system enhance user safety and convenience, addressing common challenges faced by traditional desktop CNC users [8]. - The optional fourth-axis module expands the device's capabilities to include complex 3D processing, broadening its application to fields like PCB manufacturing and precision parts processing [8]. Software Development - Makera Studio, the company's self-developed cross-platform CAM software, offers a comprehensive solution for toolpath generation and processing management, significantly lowering the learning curve for CNC users [10]. - The software supports various processing techniques, including 2D, 3D, and PCB rapid prototyping, and features cloud-based resource sharing through the Makerables community [10]. Competitive Advantage - The core competitiveness of Makera lies not only in its hardware innovations but also in building a complete ecosystem for consumer-grade CNC tools [10]. - Investors recognize Makera as a leading brand focused on reducing user barriers in the desktop CNC market, with expectations for its products to become as ubiquitous as 3D printers [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in global stock markets, particularly in the U.S., reflects a structural adjustment in investor sentiment towards technology stocks and broader economic concerns, driven by policy changes and trade tensions [2][3][10]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.71%, marking its largest single-day drop since May, while the Nasdaq index experienced a more significant decline of 3.56%, losing 700 points [1][2]. - The Russell 2000 index, which represents small-cap stocks, dropped by 2.99%, indicating rising concerns about financial stability [2]. Sector Analysis - Major technology companies such as Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia saw declines of 3.45%, over 5.06%, and 4.89% respectively, contributing to the overall market downturn [2]. - The decline in technology stocks has been widespread, affecting the entire industry chain from hardware manufacturing to software services, signaling a general revision of growth expectations in the tech sector [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown has led to over 4000 federal employees being laid off, with a total of 3.4 million employees affected, potentially impacting Q4 GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points [3]. - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 3.8%, highlighting vulnerabilities in the labor market [3]. Trade and Policy Impact - The escalation of trade tensions, particularly the renewed threats of tariffs against China, has increased uncertainty in global supply chains, prompting Goldman Sachs to lower its global economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4% [3][4]. - The market's response to these developments has been less panicked compared to previous downturns, as indicated by the VIX index, which peaked at 22.6, significantly lower than the 35.2 peak in April [4][8]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Current valuations are high, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio at 29.7, up 22.2% from April's low of 24.3 [6]. - The market sentiment has shifted from a focus on external liquidity to an emphasis on internal value, with a need for investors to identify opportunities driven by domestic demand and policy support [10]. Investment Strategy - The focus for investors should shift towards sectors benefiting from domestic consumption and policy support, particularly in consumer and infrastructure sectors, which have shown resilience amid the tech sell-off [3][10]. - Mid-term investment strategies should consider the recovery of global manufacturing and the potential for physical assets to benefit from increased demand [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in global risk assets, particularly in the U.S. stock market, reflects a combination of trade tensions, high valuations, and diverging fundamentals, indicating a shift in market dynamics compared to previous downturns [5][23]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.71%, marking its largest single-day drop since May [2]. - The Nasdaq index experienced a more significant decline of 3.56%, losing 700 points, highlighting a sharp correction in technology stocks [3]. - The ChiNext index in China also dropped by 2%, with tech stocks that previously rose in tandem with U.S. tech shares being heavily sold off [4]. Structural Characteristics of the Decline - The downturn in the U.S. market exhibited structural characteristics, with major tech giants like Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia seeing declines of 3.45%, over 5.06%, and 4.89% respectively, which directly impacted index performance [7]. - The decline spanned the entire tech industry, indicating a broad market correction in growth expectations for the sector [8]. - The Russell 2000 index, which represents small-cap stocks, fell by 2.99%, suggesting rising concerns about financial stability [9]. Economic and Policy Context - The recent asset price fluctuations were triggered by two key policy moves from the Trump administration, including permanent layoffs affecting over 4,000 federal employees and a potential government shutdown impacting GDP growth [10]. - The U.S. economy's vulnerability is highlighted by a rising unemployment rate of 3.8% and a significant drop in non-farm payrolls [10]. - Trade tensions, particularly the renewed threat of tariffs on China, have exacerbated global supply chain uncertainties, leading to a downward revision of global economic growth forecasts by Goldman Sachs [10]. Market Sentiment and Expectations - Unlike the panic seen in April, the current market sentiment is characterized by a lack of extreme fear, as indicated by the VIX index peaking at 22.6 compared to 35.2 in April [11][19]. - Investors have developed a more mature expectation framework regarding trade conflicts, anticipating a cycle of threats, negotiations, and compromises [13]. - The upcoming APEC summit in November is seen as a potential catalyst for renewed U.S.-China trade discussions, providing psychological support to the market [14]. Valuation and Investment Strategy - Current market valuations are high, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio at 29.7, significantly above the April low of 24.3 [16]. - The absence of extreme panic and new policy stimuli suggests that blindly buying the dip may be risky, as the market is currently experiencing a process of valuation digestion and momentum shifting [19][24]. - Investors are advised to focus on identifying intrinsic value rather than following overseas liquidity trends, with a short-term focus on domestic consumption recovery and policy benefits [25]. Chinese Market Dynamics - The previous reliance of Chinese assets on overseas liquidity and tech stock correlations has revealed vulnerabilities, suggesting a potential for index-level adjustments, albeit manageable [20]. - Domestic policies and signs of recovery in consumer demand are seen as the most certain investment themes, with the "anti-involution" policy extending to high-end manufacturing [20]. - The recovery in social retail sales growth to 4.2% in September indicates a positive trend in domestic demand [20]. Mid-term Investment Focus - The recovery of global manufacturing and rising physical consumption trends are expected to remain central to asset allocation strategies [21]. - Non-bank financial sectors are anticipated to benefit from improving capital returns as manufacturing rebounds, with historical data suggesting significant excess returns following manufacturing PMI recoveries [21]. - Physical assets, particularly in industrial metals and raw materials, are positioned to benefit from demand recovery, with current valuations below historical medians [21].

Core Insights - Makera, a domestic consumer-grade CNC innovation company, has completed a Pre-A round financing of several tens of millions of RMB, led exclusively by Qiming Venture Partners, with funds aimed at core technology R&D, capacity expansion, and global market channel development [1][2] Company Overview - Founded in 2019, Makera provides intelligent and user-friendly digital manufacturing tools for global makers, SMEs, and educational institutions, having launched two generations of CNC devices, with its flagship product Carvera being the world's first smart desktop CNC product [1][2] - The second-generation Carvera Air achieved a crowdfunding success of 3.47 million USD [1] Product Development - Makera plans to launch its third product, Makera Z1, in Q4 2025, targeting an entry-level price of around 1,000 USD while delivering professional-grade processing capabilities [2] - The company will also introduce the self-developed Makera Studio intelligent CAM path generation platform and a CNC content community called Makerables, aiming to make desktop CNC accessible to a broader audience [2] Technical Innovations - Makera aims to adapt industrial-grade CNC technology for consumer use, exemplified by the Carvera, which integrates an industrial-grade closed-loop control system for 0.01 mm processing precision [4] - The device features an automatic tool change system and automatic detection and leveling functions, addressing common challenges in traditional desktop CNC operations [4] - A unique built-in dust collection system enhances safety by reducing health risks associated with hazardous materials [4] Software Solutions - The Makera Studio software offers a comprehensive solution for tool path generation and processing management, supporting various machining processes and significantly lowering the learning curve for users [4][6] - It includes features like visual simulation, collision detection, and remote monitoring, facilitating resource sharing and quick onboarding for users [4] Market Potential - The success of other companies like拓竹 and xTool, along with eufy Make's crowdfunding achievements, highlights the substantial potential of overseas maker communities and small business entrepreneurs [2] - Makera's strategy is to create a complete ecosystem for consumer-grade CNC tools, aiming to democratize access to CNC technology for both makers and general consumers [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's capital market has significant growth potential, as indicated by the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP, which currently stands at 70%, suggesting room for expansion [6][11]. Group 1: Capital Market Maturity - A hard indicator for assessing a country's capital market maturity is the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP, ideally between 1:1 and 1:1.2. A ratio below 1:1 indicates underdevelopment, while a ratio above 1:1.2 suggests potential bubbles [6]. - China's capital market total was over 70 trillion RMB at the beginning of the year and has reached 100 trillion RMB, with a GDP of approximately 140 trillion RMB, resulting in a market-to-GDP ratio of 70% [6][11]. - By 2040, China's GDP is projected to double, potentially leading to a stock market total of around 400 trillion RMB if the market-to-GDP ratio reaches 100%-120% [6][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article advocates for early, small, long-term investments in hard technology, aligning with recent government encouragement for venture capital and private equity to adjust their investment focus [7][8]. - Currently, about 40% of the total 30 trillion RMB in venture capital is invested in low-risk fixed-income assets, which distorts the intended investment direction [7]. - The ideal investment approach should start at the early stages of company development, focusing on transformative investments as companies grow [8]. Group 3: Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is crucial for driving innovation and efficiency in manufacturing, serving as a foundation for high-value unicorn companies [9][12]. - This sector includes ten major categories, such as hard technology R&D, logistics, supply chain finance, and digital services, which are essential for enhancing productivity and economic growth [9][10]. - The productive service industry has shown a significant growth rate of 12.1% from 2021 to 2023, outpacing other sectors and contributing to GDP growth [10][12]. Group 4: Unicorn Companies and Investment Focus - The article highlights that many unicorn companies globally are rooted in the productive service industry, with a significant portion of their market value derived from this sector [12][13]. - Major tech companies like Apple and Microsoft exemplify how productive service industries can drive high margins and value creation, often outsourcing manufacturing while controlling the service aspects [13][14]. - Investment should target various categories of productive service companies, including small specialized firms and established leaders in the sector, to foster growth and innovation [15][17].