日前，德勤《2025 全球零售力量》研究报告发布，该报告以 2023 年 7 月 - 2024 年 6 月财年数据为锚，勾勒出全球零售行业在复苏与压力交织下的发展脉 络。 当全球零售总收入创下 6.03 万亿美元（约合人民币 43.4 万亿 ）新高，当行业集中度持续攀升、业态与区域分化加剧，中国零售企业的 13 席身影，既承 载着内需市场的深厚底气，也折射出在全球竞争中破局的迫切与挑战。 全球零售全景：增长、分化与势力版图 | 地区 | 国家 | 公司数量 | 平均零售收入 (亿 元人民币) | 海外零售业务占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 非洲 / 中东 | 南非 | 4 | 563 | 16.40% | | 非洲 / 中东 | 干直演 | 3 | 512 | 4.30% | | 非洲 / 中东 | 阿拉伯联合酋长国 | 2 | 502 | 55.30% | | 亚太 | 日本 | 20 | 925 | 27.70% | | 亚太 | 中国(含港澳台) | 13 | 1677 | 18.10% | | 亚太 | 韩国 | 7 | 763 | 4.80% | | 亚 ...

金十数据7月3日讯，港股主要股指高开低走，恒指早盘一度跌超1.2%，恒生科技指数则跌超1.4%。截 止午间收盘，恒生指数跌0.96%，恒生科技指数跌1.2%。板块个股方面，线上零售股今日走低，阿里巴 巴(09988.HK)跌超3%，美团(03690.HK)、京东(09618.HK)均跌超2%；药品、生物技术板块早盘拉升， 基石药业(02616.HK、康方生物(09926.HK均涨超10%。其余热门科网股中小米集团(01810.HK)跌超 4%，金山软件(03888.HK)跌7.58%，哔哩哔哩(09626.HK)、快手(01024.HK)、携程集团(09961.HK)均跌 超1%。 港股午评：恒生指数早盘失守24000点关口 生物科技股走强 ...

恒生指数跌幅扩大至1%，恒生科技指数现跌0.88%；线上零售股走低，阿里巴巴(09988.HK)跌3.38%， 美团(03690.HK)、京东(09618.HK)均跌超2%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the rise of new consumption is a result of specific economic cycles and social changes, with optional consumption surpassing essential consumption in the US and Japan during key periods of economic transformation [1][2][3] - Historical experiences from the US stock market show that optional consumption sectors have significantly outperformed essential consumption sectors, particularly during the 1970s and post-2009, driven by factors such as rising disposable income and shifts in consumer behavior [1][2] - The financial characteristics of new consumption reveal that sectors within optional consumption have seen increasing debt ratios while effectively managing risks, leading to improved fundamentals and higher valuation premiums [2][3] Group 2 - The driving factors behind the shift from essential to optional consumption include continuous growth in disposable income, technological advancements, and changes in demographic structures and consumer attitudes, particularly among younger generations [3][4] - The market structure is evolving, with leading companies in optional consumption leveraging scale effects and brand advantages to consolidate their market positions, as evidenced by successful companies in Japan's toy, beauty, and gaming sectors [3][4] - The report suggests that the experiences from the US and Japan can inform current investment strategies in the A-share market, focusing on sectors that meet diverse consumer needs and exhibit high growth potential [4][10]

港股收评：港股主要股指今日低迷 线上零售、汽车板块下挫 金十数据5月30日讯，港股主要股指今日低开低走，午后呈低位振荡态势，恒生科技指数一度跌近3%。 截至收盘，香港恒生指数收跌1.2%，本周累计下跌1.32%；恒生科技指数收跌2.48%，本周累计下跌 1.46%。恒指大市成交额达2715.63亿港元。板块个股方面，消费股、科技股跌幅居前，比亚迪电子 (00285.HK)跌超6%，小鹏汽车(09868.HK)跌超5%，网易(09999.HK)、蔚来汽车(09866.HK)联想集团 (00992.HK)均跌超4%。手回集团(02621.HK)今日首日上市，截至收盘跌超18%。港股药品板块今日上 扬，复星医药(02196.HK)涨9.89%，石药集团(01093.HK)收涨6.3%。 ...

港股收评：港股主要股指今日持续走高 生物医药股涨幅居前 金十数据5月29日讯，港股主要股指今日持续走高，截至收盘，恒生指数收涨1.35%，恒生科技指数大 幅上涨2.46%。恒指大市成交额达2268.55亿港元。板块个股方面，线上零售概念今日强势，美团 (03690.HK)大涨6.6%，快手(01024.HK)涨近5%，百度(09888.HK)、阿里巴巴(09988.HK)均涨近2%。生 物医药板块同样大涨，药明巨诺(02126.HK)涨近20%，药明生物(02269.HK)涨超10%。香港港交所 (00388.HK)近日表现活跃，今日盘中一度涨2.56%，报401港元，最终收涨2.4%报400.4港元，股价创 2022年2月以来新高。 ...

港股收盘，恒生指数收涨1.35%，恒生科技指数收涨2.46%；线上零售、生物基础概念股走强，美团 (03690.HK)收涨6.62%，药明巨诺(02126.HK)收涨近20%。 ...

港股线上零售板块午后持续拉升，美团(03690.HK)涨近6%，京东(09618.HK)涨超3%，阿里巴巴 (09988.HK)涨1.47%。 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.05% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.07% [1] Institutional Insights - Zhongtai Securities suggests that market indices may maintain strong resilience due to the unexpected suspension of "reciprocal tariffs," which enhances short-term risk appetite. Structural divergences remain, and the space for long-term tariff reductions is limited. The current market environment shows a strengthening of total policy determination, improvement in core city real estate, and high historical levels of margin trading, which, combined with policies emphasizing indices, may support continued resilience in market indices [2] - Investment funds are expected to rotate around sectors with high first-quarter report performance and mid-term industry trends, including public utilities, AI upstream and leading technology firms, gold, nuclear power equipment, military industry, and consumer sectors related to younger demographics such as pets and beauty products. Investors are advised to accumulate positions in these sectors on dips and to focus on high-quality leaders in the CSI 300 with significantly lower institutional allocation compared to index component ratios [2] New Market Dynamics - Minsheng Securities notes that a new order and narrative are emerging as investors begin to price in the marginal easing of trade shocks. However, structural shocks will persist, and the return to fundamental pricing characteristics will gradually become evident. Future declines in total demand and the fluctuating path of trade easing may disrupt market tranquility. The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for technology breakthroughs influencing market risk appetite, while the current phase is characterized by a rotation in investor styles towards technology themes, which may lack sustainability [3] - The gradual establishment of a long-term mechanism for domestic consumption is expected to yield three sources of returns: net profit growth, dividend payments, and valuation increases, with recommendations for sectors such as home appliances, food and beverages, cosmetics, trendy toys, tourism, gaming, and online retail [3] - The restructuring of China's foreign trade system is likely to gradually reveal the value of capacities in advantageous industries, such as machinery and automotive manufacturing, while resource products with significant supply constraints (copper, aluminum, gold) may also see new opportunities [3] - As the economic transition progresses and real estate stabilizes, the de-financialization process in China is nearing its end. The current investment and financing environment for Chinese enterprises is improving, which may drive new expansions in the financial sector, particularly as the new domestic growth paradigm and the acceleration of the RMB internationalization process unfold [3]

A 股策略周报 20250518 ➢ 当下主题投资活跃，但力度未来很难回到一季度。2025 年 Q1 的主题行业 具备诸多条件的共振：经济基本面预期企稳向上为科技制造业提供了盈利基本 面，而主题行业本身又存在催化，甚至引领了中国资产重估的叙事。当前贸易 冲击阶段平复，但是全球经济在关税冲突前就在放缓的趋势仍未改变，未来出 口有新的扰动，中小盘成长由于对出口的暴露更高，表现波动也会明显放大； 当下贸易和谈带来的信心修复，来源恰好是中国总量供给在全球的优势，而不 是单一科技行业的突破，反而核心科技主题当下缺乏新产业催化做进一步支 撑。总结来看，2025 年 Q1 是科技突破引领市场风险偏好，而现在是市场风险 偏好修复投资者风格阶段轮动科技主题，持续性资产较弱。 ➢ 未破未立的尴尬，但新秩序，新故事一直在孕育。第一，内需消费长效机 制的逐步建立下板块具备净利润增长、股息支付和估值提升三类收益来源，推 荐家电、食品饮料、化妆品、潮玩、旅游休闲、游戏、线上零售等；详细分析 可参考前期周报《修复之后，关注变化》。第二，中国对外贸易体系重塑下部分 提前完成出清供需格局相对良好的中国优势产业的产能价值有望逐渐体现（机 械设备 ...