晨会纪要 核心结论 分析师 【策略】四季度策略展望：攻守易形 行业配置：冰火转换，"有新高"！ 【有】色金属：全球再工业化+去美元化逻辑主导下，大宗商品"走向 1978" （金/银/铜） 【新】消费：国民财富回流，居民边际消费倾向改善带来的大众消费需求（零 食/宠物/美护/旅游出行） 【高】端制造：跨境资本回流背景下，具备出口优势的新能源/化工/医疗器 械/工程机械等，以及自主可控背景下具备后发优势的国产算力链 【有色金属】藏格矿业（000408.SZ）公告点评：《采矿许可证》落地消除 隐忧，静待铜、钾、锂业务齐飞 藏格矿业：《不动产权证书（采矿权）》与《采矿许可证》正式落地，消除市 场对公司能否继续开展锂盐业务的担忧；一句话总结公司的核心推荐逻辑： 优质的资产、合适的时机、令人期待的合作；我们预计 2025-2027 年公司 归母净利润分别为 34.39、49.06、62.26 亿元，EPS 分别为 2.19、3.12、 3.96 元，PE 分别为 28、20、15 倍，维持"买入"评级。 【宏观】宏观经济观察系列（九）：美元指数重回上行通道？ 回顾 9 月，美元指数和美元兑人民币同步走势，呈现"一波三折" ...

本报北京10月11日电 （记者欧阳洁）中国物流与采购联合会发布的9月份中国物流业景气指数为 51.2%，较上月回升0.3个百分点，物流需求平稳增长。 物流业务总需求保持扩张。9月份，新订单指数为53.3%，环比回升1个百分点，连续8个月保持景气区 间运行。 能源运输、电子元器件、医药化工等行业物流需求向好，带动铁公水和航空物流业务量增长。9月份， 铁路运输业、道路运输业业务总量指数环比分别回升0.1和0.2个百分点，航空运输业业务总量指数和新 订单指数环比分别上升0.3和1.2个百分点。 《 人民日报 》（ 2025年10月12日 04 版） (责编：牛镛、岳弘彬) 关注公众号：人民网财经 居民消费物流需求平稳增长。民生消费物流较快回升，冷链鲜食、家电3C、旅游户外、美妆服装等网 购品类保持较高热度，9月份邮政快递业业务总量指数为70.1%，远高于全行业水平。 ...

综合三季度来看，物流业景气指数累计回升0.4个百分点，从业人员指数、主营业务利润指数均连续回 升，物流活跃度进一步增强，企业经营活力趋稳向好。 从分项指数看，新订单指数加速扩张。铁路运输业、道路运输业、航空运输业、多式联运领域新订单指 数，环比回升均超过0.5个百分点。民生消费物流增长较快，冷链鲜食、旅游户外、服装等网购品类保 持较高热度。9月份邮政快递业业务总量指数为70.1%，远高于全行业水平。产业物流方面，能源运 输、通信设备、家居家电耐用消费品等行业物流需求进一步向好，带动物流业务量平稳增长。 央视网消息（新闻联播）：中国物流与采购联合会今天（10月11日）公布，9月份中国物流业景气指数 为51.2%，较上月上升0.3个百分点，为4月份以来的新高。 ...

央视网消息：中国物流与采购联合会10月11日公布9月份中国物流业景气指数。9月份供应链上下游产供销有效衔接，物流需求增长平稳， 物流业景气水平继续提升，景气指数升至近六个月内高点。 综合三季度数据来看，物流业景气指数累计回升0.4个百分点，企业经营活力趋稳向好。 9月份中国物流业景气指数为51.2%，较上月上升0.3个百分点。从分项指数看，物流业务总需求保持扩张，新订单指数在扩张区间内加速 扩张。铁路运输业、道路运输业、航空运输业、多式联运领域和邮政快递业新订单指数环比回升均超过0.5个百分点。 夏季高温结束后，开学季和旅游季联动，民生消费物流较快回升，网络购物和居民消费旺季更旺，冷链鲜食、家电3C、旅游户外、美妆 服装等网购品类保持较高热度。9月份邮政快递业业务总量指数为70.1%，远高于全行业水平。 产业物流需求方面，能源运输、电子元器件、医药化工、通信设备、家居家电耐用消费品等行业物流需求增长向好，带动物流业务量较快 增长。航空物流需求业务量呈现较快增长势头，腹仓利用率处于较高水平。 中国物流信息中心主任 刘宇航：9月份中国物流业景气指数呈现了环比回升的状态，并且增速有所加快。物流需求持续向好，居民消费 ...

9月份中国物流业景气指数为51.2%，较上月上升0.3个百分点。从分项指数看，物流业务总需求保 持扩张，新订单指数在扩张区间内加速扩张。铁路运输业、道路运输业、航空运输业、多式联运领域和 邮政快递业新订单指数，环比回升均超过0.5个百分点。 央视网消息：中国物流与采购联合会10月11日公布9月份中国物流业景气指数。9月份供应链上下游 产供销有效衔接，物流需求增长平稳，物流业景气水平继续提升，景气指数升至近六个月内高点。 ...

每经AI快讯，华夏航空（SZ 002928，收盘价：10.08元）10月10日晚间发布公告称，截至2025年9月30 日，公司暂未实施本次股份回购。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——天水麻辣烫、淄博烧烤、荣昌卤鹅⋯⋯"泼天流量"退去后，这些城市怎么 样了？ （记者 曾健辉） 2025年1至6月份，华夏航空的营业收入构成为：航空运输业占比98.73%，其他业务收入占比1.27%。 截至发稿，华夏航空市值为129亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the Chinese stock market and economic indicators during the National Day holiday, highlighting the strong stock market despite weak consumption and real estate data [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The stock market showed strong performance, with an increase of over 1.3%, breaking through the 3900 mark, driven by positive sentiment around AI narratives [5]. - The bond market remained stable, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.785% after opening at 1.7925% [5]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 145.13 billion yuan, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Consumer spending during the holiday was weak, with an average daily expenditure of 113 yuan per person, recovering to 97% of 2019 levels [5]. - Real estate transaction volumes in key cities saw a significant decline, with year-on-year reductions of nearly 50% [5]. - Movie box office revenues were down nearly 60% compared to 2019, reflecting ongoing challenges in the entertainment sector [5].

Economic Overview - Dalian's economy showed stable performance in the first eight months of the year, with industrial production improving and consumer momentum continuing to release [1] - The city's industrial added value for enterprises above designated size increased by 12.8% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month [1] Industrial Performance - The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 15.9% year-on-year, continuing a double-digit growth trend [1] - State-owned enterprises saw a significant increase in added value by 21.9%, while joint-stock enterprises grew by 16.7%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises by 4.2%, and private enterprises by 2.3% [2] - Mining industry added value surged by 61.5%, while manufacturing grew by 13.3% and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 6.8% [2] - Key industries such as petrochemical increased by 7.1%, equipment manufacturing by 17.8%, with notable growth in the railway and shipbuilding industry at 62.0% and the automotive industry at 27.7% [2] - Pharmaceutical manufacturing saw a remarkable increase of 42.9%, with raw material drug manufacturing skyrocketing by 536.3% [2] Service Sector - The service sector in Dalian remained stable, with most industries experiencing growth [3] - The total turnover of road, water, and air transport increased by 1.8%, 4.1%, and 2.5% respectively [3] - Retail sales for large-scale units reached 579.9 billion yuan, marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in categories such as building materials (990.7%) and home appliances (285.9%) [3] Consumer Prices and Electricity Consumption - Consumer prices in Dalian continued to operate at low levels, with food and beverage prices decreasing by 1.6% [4] - Total electricity consumption in the city reached 33.79 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with industrial electricity consumption at 20.49 billion kWh, growing by 1.6% [4]

Core Points - The event "2025 Silk Road Tourism Cities Alliance Series Activities and Silk Road City (Quanzhou) Cultural Tourism Carnival" was officially launched in Quanzhou, aiming to promote high-quality inbound tourism and the long-term development of the Silk Road Tourism Cities Alliance [1][14] - Representatives from over 26 countries attended the event, highlighting the international collaboration and cultural exchange [1][3] Group 1: Event Highlights - The opening ceremony featured traditional performances, including Nanyin music and puppet shows, creating a rich cultural atmosphere [3] - Seven new member cities were awarded certificates, enhancing the alliance's cultural diversity and cooperative vitality [5][7] - Quanzhou was designated as the rotating chair city for the Silk Road Tourism Cities Alliance for 2025-2026, symbolizing its leadership role in promoting cultural tourism [8] Group 2: Key Speeches and Recommendations - Notable speakers included former UNWTO Secretary-General Francesco Frangialli, who emphasized Quanzhou's historical significance in the Maritime Silk Road and suggested developing themed tourism products [8][9] - Former Irish Minister of State for Tourism Frank Fahey praised Quanzhou's rich history and cultural diversity, recommending it as a must-visit destination [9] Group 3: Industry Initiatives - China Eastern Airlines expressed its commitment to supporting the Belt and Road Initiative by optimizing its international flight network and promoting cultural tourism [10] - The event included a global promotion of Quanzhou's tourism resources, showcasing its cultural heritage, diverse cuisine, and convenient services [11] Group 4: Project Launch - The "Silk Road Tourism City Travel Guide Series" project was launched to showcase the charm of Silk Road cities, connecting their stories and landscapes [13]

Group 1 - The potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2025 is a key external factor influencing the Chinese economy, with a 92% probability of a rate cut reflected in the U.S. interest rate futures market [1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with a 0.8 percentage point decline in GDP growth from the first to the second quarter, and the core PCE price index year-on-year growth falling to 2.3%, creating room for the Fed to ease monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The narrowing of the China-U.S. 10-year government bond yield spread from 2.1 percentage points in 2023 to 0.3 percentage points is a significant positive development, potentially allowing for a 150 basis point reduction in China's reserve requirement ratio [3] - The aviation and real estate sectors are expected to benefit first, with the former holding $38.7 billion in dollar-denominated debt and the latter having approximately $52.6 billion in outstanding dollar debt, alleviating financial cost pressures from exchange rate fluctuations [3] Group 3 - Over the past 12 months, northbound capital has net flowed into the A-share market by 243 billion yuan, with the consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, and high-end equipment manufacturing sectors accounting for 62% of this inflow [3] - In the MSCI China index, stocks with foreign ownership exceeding 5% have an average valuation below the central value of the past five years by 23%, indicating potential for value reassessment during the Fed's rate cut cycle [3] Group 4 - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index, if it rises to the 101-103 range, could reduce the average procurement cost of basic imported goods by 6.3%, significantly impacting strategic materials like iron ore and crude oil [4] - The apparel and textile sectors may face pressure, with a 1% appreciation in the RMB potentially eroding profit margins by 4.7%, affecting over 120,000 export enterprises [4] Group 5 - The manufacturing PMI has remained above the threshold for four consecutive months, with the new export orders index rising to 51.6, indicating effective structural adjustments [4] - The recent 9.2% increase in the global commodity price index may offset some benefits from alleviating input deflationary pressures [4]