新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 出口窗口打开，交易逻辑转变 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为59.11美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日310元/吨至22140元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-35元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日310元/吨至22170元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-45元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日320元/吨至22140元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-35元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-09沪锌主力合约开于22040元/吨，收于22315元/吨，较前一交易日380元/吨，全天交易日成交 137234手，全天交易日持仓113253手，日内价格最高点达到22340元/吨，最低点达到21950元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-10-09，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.02万吨，较上期变化0.88万吨。截止2025-10-09，LME 锌库存为38250吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续，供给端 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both unilateral and arbitrage strategies is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - Overseas zinc inventory reduction trend remains unchanged; domestic supply pressure persists, and long - term inventory accumulation is expected. However, overseas factors support zinc prices, and attention should be paid to post - balance changes [1][5] Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $39.84 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 320 yuan/ton to 21,630 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 25 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 330 yuan/ton to 21,660 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 330 yuan/ton to 21,620 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,930 yuan/ton, closed at 21,800 yuan/ton (down 235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 180,545 lots and a position of 142,400 lots. The highest price was 21,950 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,665 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 141,400 tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 41,950 tons, a decrease of 825 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - During the long holiday, downstream开工率 decreased. Before the holiday, with the decline of absolute prices, downstream actively purchased, and the spot discount was repaired, especially in Guangdong. The supply pressure in China remains. The TC of domestic zinc mines in October continued to decline, while the TC of imported zinc mines was as high as $140 per ton. The smelting profit of the industry was maintained, and the short - term replenishment behavior could not change the long - term inventory accumulation expectation. Overseas inventory problems remained unresolved, the export window was not opened, and the hawkish attitude overseas supported the zinc price [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral [6] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-02 北方消费受影响减产，锌锭下调贴水 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为6.12美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22100元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-35元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日100元/吨至22100元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-75元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日100元/吨至22090元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-85元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-01沪锌主力合约开于22250元/吨，收于22175元/吨，较前一交易日80元/吨，全天交易日成交 139706手，全天交易日持仓116185手，日内价格最高点达到22300元/吨，最低点达到22125元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-09-01，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为14.63万吨，较上期变化0.18万吨。截止2025-09-01，LME 锌库存为55875吨，较上一交易日变化-625吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Short allocation option among non-ferrous varieties [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Zinc ingot spot market has sufficient arrivals, domestic warehouse receipts are increasing rapidly, zinc prices fluctuate with the general trend of non-ferrous metals, downstream purchasing power is poor, and spot discounts show a slight expanding trend. The import TC is rising, smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. The smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and zinc price decline has little impact on smelting profit. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$4.61/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -10 yuan/ton to 22,270 yuan/ton, with a premium of -45 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is unchanged at 22,270 yuan/ton, with a premium of -70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is -10 yuan/ton to 22,250 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On August 27, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened and closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 114,993 lots, and the open interest was 107,827 lots. The highest price was 22,425 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,290 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 27, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 138,500 tons, a change of 5,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 60,025 tons, a change of -5,500 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - **Supply**: Zinc ingot spot market has sufficient arrivals, domestic warehouse receipts are increasing rapidly. The import TC is rising, smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. The smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and zinc price decline has little impact on smelting profit, so the smelting enthusiasm remains [5] - **Consumption**: Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Arbitrage**: Short allocation option among non-ferrous varieties [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market discount is still slightly weakening, and the market trading enthusiasm is poor. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply-side incremental expectation remains unchanged. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak consumption season expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend. However, the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$0.23/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,520 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -55 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,485 yuan/ton, closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 87,765 lots, and the open interest was 93,386 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,670 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,425 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 11, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 119,200 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 80,425 tons, a change of -1,075 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - The spot market discount is slightly weakening, and trading enthusiasm is low. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply - side pressure is continuously prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak consumption season expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention. [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is experiencing a stable supply and demand situation, with an increase in both domestic and imported zinc concentrate inventories, while consumption is expected to decline in the short term due to seasonal factors [1] Supply Side - Domestic zinc concentrate market remains stable, with the average weekly TC price at 3,800 RMB per metal ton and the imported zinc concentrate index rising to 73.75 USD per dry ton [1] - Port inventories of imported zinc concentrate increased by 107,000 tons to 440,000 tons, indicating a robust supply [1] - Despite the increase in imported TC, domestic smelting profits are high, leading smelters to prefer domestic concentrate, suggesting potential for further TC increases [1] Smelting Sector - In July, domestic smelting plants are undergoing both maintenance and resumption of operations, with refined zinc output expected to increase by approximately 12,000 tons month-on-month [1] - The recent rise in zinc concentrate processing fees has expanded smelter profits, and with sufficient domestic zinc concentrate supply, smelting activity is likely to increase [1] Consumption Trends - July and August are typically off-peak months for zinc consumption, resulting in reduced terminal orders and lower operational enthusiasm among downstream enterprises [1] - Downstream raw material inventories are at high levels, leading to poor purchasing sentiment, although policies like "old for new" may stimulate consumption [1] - Attention should be paid to consumption in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors [1] Inventory Data - As of July 17, SMM zinc ingot inventory stood at 93,500 tons, an increase of 400 tons from July 14 and 3,200 tons from July 10 [1] - LME zinc inventory on July 18 was 119,100 tons, up 13,900 tons from July 11 [1] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is improving, with indications of short positions exiting the market [1] - Zinc prices may rebound due to macroeconomic and funding conditions, but medium to long-term outlook suggests ample supply from the mining sector and potential for TC increases [1] - Smelters are expected to maintain high operating rates, leading to increased refined zinc supply, while consumption is entering a seasonal decline, potentially resulting in inventory accumulation [1] Trading Strategy - A single-sided trading approach is recommended, with short-term zinc prices expected to be strong, allowing for day trading on long positions [1] - As macro sentiment fades, consider shorting based on inventory accumulation levels [1] - For arbitrage operations, a wait-and-see approach is advised [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - The spot premium of zinc continues to weaken. With sufficient raw material reserves downstream, positive US macro - data, and rising commodity prices, pressure on zinc premium will continue. The supply surplus expectation remains unchanged in the second half of the year due to increasing import ore TC, rising zinc concentrate production, and high domestic smelting profits. Although downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a continuous inventory build - up trend [3]. 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$8.95 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,030 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 70 yuan/ton to 22,070 yuan/ton, with the premium unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 17, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,975 yuan/ton and closed at 22,130 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 77,512 lots, down 11,957 lots from the previous day, and positions were 67,223 lots, down 11,088 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,970 yuan/ton and 22,170 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 93,500 tons, up 3,200 tons from last week. LME zinc inventory was 121,475 tons, up 125 tons from the previous day [1][2]. 4. Market Analysis - Spot market: The spot premium is weakening. Sufficient downstream raw material reserves and positive US macro - data will continue to pressure the zinc premium. - Cost side: Import ore TC is rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year - on - year increase in zinc concentrate production. High domestic smelting profits and sufficient raw material inventory of smelters lead to low procurement enthusiasm. - Consumption side: Downstream operating rates show resilience, but cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory is increasing, and the inventory build - up trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year [3].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The absolute price of zinc has declined significantly, and the spot market premium has not improved significantly. The supply is relatively abundant, and the zinc price is weak despite the new low of the US dollar index. The supply pressure remains high, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur. The deviation between the macro - positive and the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back, and attention should be paid to the change of social inventory [3] Summary by Related Content Spot and Futures Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$18.75 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 210 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, and its spot premium rose by 25 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 240 yuan/ton to 22,250 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,210 yuan/ton, and its spot premium increased by 35 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [1] - On July 1, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,255 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 178,683 lots, an increase of 17,759 lots, and the position was 134,433 lots, a decrease of 5,753 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,105 - 22,420 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 117,475 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The supply in June increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the expected output in July is still as high as 590,000 tons. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the finished product inventory of smelters and zinc alloy inventory have increased significantly. The alloy operating rate has started to decline, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur [3] - The TC of the ore end has further increased, the smelting profit has expanded, and the smelting enthusiasm has been further enhanced, so the supply pressure remains [3] - After the absolute price increase, the spot market trading has become more sluggish, and the spot premium has quickly declined [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Zinc prices face upward pressure again. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the lack of fundamental drivers for price increases. If social inventories continue to rise, it will exert significant downward pressure on zinc prices [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$24.65/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 130 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 250 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 180 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 100 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On June 24, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,875 yuan/ton and closed at 21,920 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 185,998 lots, an increase of 88,110 lots, and the position was 121,470 lots, an increase of 53,580 lots. The highest price reached 22,030 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,825 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of June 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 77,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous week. As of June 24, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 123,450 tons, a decrease of 2,450 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Transportation in South China may be affected, but the spot market is not strong due to low inventory, and the spot premium continues to decline. Zinc alloy开工率 has dropped significantly, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur. TC remains stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume is increasing. Although the further upward space is limited, the strong trend remains unchanged. There are still smelting profits at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains [4] Strategy - Consumption shows a marginal decline, the spot premium has dropped significantly, and zinc price increases lack fundamental drivers. If social inventories continue to increase, it will form significant downward pressure [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: As of the end of May, China's broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Narrow money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. In the first five months, net cash investment was 30.64 billion yuan [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, zinc prices continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical events had little impact on zinc prices. In June, the downstream entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of social inventories. In terms of fundamentals, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans. The recovery of global zinc ore production has led to a continuous marginal strengthening of zinc ore spot TC. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and maintenance has been postponed. The output of refined zinc has marginally recovered, and the production increase situation in the ore and smelting ends is expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there is a hidden worry of contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate maintains resilience, there is no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, and it will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated to be optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [6]. - **Strategy**: In the short and medium term, due to the low level of social inventories, the monthly spread is still wide, and the back structure is deep, supporting the near - month contracts. However, with the continuous recovery of the smelting end, the high premium is expected to be temporary. In terms of strategy, short positions can still be considered for far - month contracts when prices are high [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Fundamentals - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In March 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. The international long - term TC price of zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and was halved compared with the previous year. Overseas high - cost smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was seriously overestimated, and the trend of marginal loosening of zinc ore supply has not changed [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to April, China's cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 1.7137 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.5%. The increase in imported ore volume boosted the processing fees. As of June 13, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $53/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,600 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, the profits of smelters have been continuously improved [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In March 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1219 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.91%. In May 2025, China's refined zinc output was 550,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. As profits recover, output is gradually increasing [18]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to April 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 120,000 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. 3.2 Industry Fundamentals - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In April, China's galvanized sheet output was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.64%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Infrastructure and Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [27]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Automobiles and Home Appliances**: In May 2025, China's automobile output was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [30]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: At low prices, downstream enterprises made excessive purchases to replenish inventories, and social inventories continued to decline. As the off - season approaches, the inflection point of social inventories is approaching [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of June 13, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount of zinc was reported at a discount of $22.95/ton. Due to the low level of social inventories, the spot premium was high [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of June 6, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 11,086 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [38].