Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Report's Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the levels of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side continues to emerge. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $175.85/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of -10 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,460 yuan/ton, closed at 22,465 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 94,668 lots, and the open interest was 91,450 lots. The highest price was 22,495 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,385 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 17, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 156,600 tons, down 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 39,975 tons, up 1,000 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have dropped, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are rising and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement is still cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores is rising, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is obvious. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory build - up is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face great pressure and may be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be considered [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly, squeezing smelter profits and potentially reducing supply pressure. Overseas warehouse receipts remain low with high premiums, and domestic inventories are falling, and micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro background remains positive [4] Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $128.30/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,630 yuan/ton, closed at 22,740 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,686 lots, and the position was 102,938 lots. The highest price was 22,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,550 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 157,900 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 37,800 tons, up 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis Summary - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses. Overseas warehouse receipts are still low, and domestic inventories are falling [4] Strategy Summary - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-12 海外现货升水居高不下 重要数据 库存方面：截至2025-11-11，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.96万吨，较上期变化0.09万吨。截止2025-11-11，LME锌 库存为35300吨，较上一交易日变化400吨。 市场分析 11月国内矿TC进一步大幅度走低，海外矿TC进一步同步下调，目前冶炼厂对矿端采购需求旺盛，矿端TC有望进一 步下滑。冶炼端开始面临压力，随着TC的大幅度回落，冶炼综合利润被严重压缩，高成本地区目前已经开始面临 综合亏损，冶炼积极性将会被压制，供给端压力有望超预期减小。海外仓单连续几日小幅增长，但库存依旧低位， 仓单风险依旧，现货升水持续高位。国内库存开始回落，难以达到前期预期的累库高度，出口窗口全面打开，后 期存在社会库存季节性明显回落的可能。微观数据几乎全面从利空向利多转变，宏观向好背景依旧不变。 策略 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为176.55美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化90元/吨至22660元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. With strong demand from smelters for ore procurement, TC is expected to decline further. - As TC drops, smelting comprehensive profit has been severely compressed, suppressing smelting enthusiasm and potentially reducing supply - side pressure more than expected. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory remains low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $152.26/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices are 22,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On November 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,720 yuan/ton, closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,875 lots, and the position was 110,752 lots. The highest price was 22,735 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,530 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 159,600 tons, up 900 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 34,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly in November. With strong procurement demand from smelters, TC is expected to decline further. - The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified 2. Report's Core View - The social inventory of zinc ingots is unlikely to continue accumulating and may even experience destocking, with strong consumption despite high domestic supply [5]. - The expected growth rate of supply is declining, and if the TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to ease [5]. - LME warehouse receipts remain at a low level, the spot premium is still high, the export window remains open, and the warehouse receipt risk has not been alleviated [5]. - Micro - data is gradually shifting from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains positive [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $98.23 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,500 yuan per ton with a change of 0 yuan from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,460 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,460 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,605 yuan per ton, closed at 22,675 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,028 lots, and the open interest was 113,005 lots. The highest price was 22,685 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,535 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 158,700 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 34,100 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - The raw material inventory days of smelters are decreasing, and due to winter storage demand, the demand for ore procurement is strong, leading to a significant decline in domestic and overseas ore TC and squeezing smelting profits [5]. - The expected year - on - year growth rate of supply in November is expected to fall below 20%, and the daily average output is decreasing month - on - month [5]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-22 锌海外升水进一步走强 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为230.29美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日70元/吨至21940元/吨，SMM上海 锌现货升贴水-50元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至21910元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-95元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日70元/吨至21940元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-50元/吨。 策略 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期货方面：2025-10-21沪锌主力合约开于21915元/吨，收于21970元/吨，较前一交易日85元/吨，全天交易日成交 108521手，全天交易日持仓130442手，日内价格最高点达到22045元/吨，最低点达到21875元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-10-21，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为16.53万吨，较上期变化0.25万吨。截止2025-10-21，LME 锌库存为37275吨，较上一交易日变化-50吨。 市场分析 海 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 出口窗口打开，交易逻辑转变 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为59.11美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日310元/吨至22140元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-35元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日310元/吨至22170元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-45元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日320元/吨至22140元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-35元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-09沪锌主力合约开于22040元/吨，收于22315元/吨，较前一交易日380元/吨，全天交易日成交 137234手，全天交易日持仓113253手，日内价格最高点达到22340元/吨，最低点达到21950元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-10-09，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.02万吨，较上期变化0.88万吨。截止2025-10-09，LME 锌库存为38250吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续，供给端 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both unilateral and arbitrage strategies is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - Overseas zinc inventory reduction trend remains unchanged; domestic supply pressure persists, and long - term inventory accumulation is expected. However, overseas factors support zinc prices, and attention should be paid to post - balance changes [1][5] Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $39.84 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 320 yuan/ton to 21,630 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 25 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 330 yuan/ton to 21,660 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 330 yuan/ton to 21,620 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,930 yuan/ton, closed at 21,800 yuan/ton (down 235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 180,545 lots and a position of 142,400 lots. The highest price was 21,950 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,665 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 141,400 tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 41,950 tons, a decrease of 825 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - During the long holiday, downstream开工率 decreased. Before the holiday, with the decline of absolute prices, downstream actively purchased, and the spot discount was repaired, especially in Guangdong. The supply pressure in China remains. The TC of domestic zinc mines in October continued to decline, while the TC of imported zinc mines was as high as $140 per ton. The smelting profit of the industry was maintained, and the short - term replenishment behavior could not change the long - term inventory accumulation expectation. Overseas inventory problems remained unresolved, the export window was not opened, and the hawkish attitude overseas supported the zinc price [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral [6] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-02 北方消费受影响减产，锌锭下调贴水 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为6.12美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22100元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-35元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日100元/吨至22100元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-75元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日100元/吨至22090元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-85元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-01沪锌主力合约开于22250元/吨，收于22175元/吨，较前一交易日80元/吨，全天交易日成交 139706手，全天交易日持仓116185手，日内价格最高点达到22300元/吨，最低点达到22125元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-09-01，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为14.63万吨，较上期变化0.18万吨。截止2025-09-01，LME 锌库存为55875吨，较上一交易日变化-625吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Short allocation option among non-ferrous varieties [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Zinc ingot spot market has sufficient arrivals, domestic warehouse receipts are increasing rapidly, zinc prices fluctuate with the general trend of non-ferrous metals, downstream purchasing power is poor, and spot discounts show a slight expanding trend. The import TC is rising, smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. The smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and zinc price decline has little impact on smelting profit. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$4.61/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -10 yuan/ton to 22,270 yuan/ton, with a premium of -45 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is unchanged at 22,270 yuan/ton, with a premium of -70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is -10 yuan/ton to 22,250 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On August 27, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened and closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 114,993 lots, and the open interest was 107,827 lots. The highest price was 22,425 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,290 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 27, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 138,500 tons, a change of 5,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 60,025 tons, a change of -5,500 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - **Supply**: Zinc ingot spot market has sufficient arrivals, domestic warehouse receipts are increasing rapidly. The import TC is rising, smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. The smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and zinc price decline has little impact on smelting profit, so the smelting enthusiasm remains [5] - **Consumption**: Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Arbitrage**: Short allocation option among non-ferrous varieties [6]