看好的方向上，稀土、内需、自主可控等或有短期催化。中期来看，科技革命仍是最大的主线。慢牛行情中，资金仍有望重新聚 焦景气成长和未来产业投资。 | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 | 结论 | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | | | 国利益的利器,同时也代表着对全球化时代 | | | | | 全球化逆转的时期,即便是低附加值的工业 品也可以成为国家撬动地缘话语权和保障本 | | | | | 传统分配机制的一种修正和平衡,传统工业 | | | | | 品只要供应管控得当,也应该享有溢价。当 | | | | | 一国对全球供应有足够影响力时,理应将份 | | | | | 额优势转化为全球定价权和利润,以避免本 | | | | 传统制造业的机会。 | 国优质资源被贱卖、优质工业产能被浪费, | | | 中信策略 | | 同时补贴居民部门，提高工资水平和社会保 | 考虑到短期利润兑现、中期景气回升和 | | | 每轮意外的市场波动,往往是新的 | 障水平,完善内部循环。全球范围内,非科 | 长期叙事逻辑的平衡,当前仍然主要关 | | 禁翔 | 变化和线索转 ...

Core Insights - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a 2.4% increase on October 10, with Zhuangyuan Pasture leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1] Sector Performance - Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) closed at 11.95, up 10.04% with a trading volume of 259,800 shares and a transaction value of 307 million yuan [1] - Yangyuan Beverage (603156) also saw a significant increase, closing at 34.42, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 377,700 shares and a transaction value of 1.255 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Knight Dairy (920786) with a 3.43% increase, and Xirong Technology (300915) with a 3.42% increase [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net inflow of 341 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 271 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow and outflow for key companies were detailed, with Yili Group (600887) showing a net inflow of 1.55 billion yuan from institutional investors [3] - Zhuangyuan Pasture had a net inflow of 176 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors showed a net outflow of 719,230 yuan [3]

盘面上，食品饮料、培育钻石、水泥、地面兵装等板块涨幅居前，能源金属、半导体、光伏设备、医疗 服务等板块跌幅居前。 国家卫健委主导的《预制菜食品安全国家标准》草案已通过审查，即将向社会公开征求意见。餐饮门店 是否使用、如何使用预制菜，将首次纳入信息披露范畴。 万联证券认为，提振内需政策红利和理性消费、情绪消费、健康消费趋势下，食饮行业存在结构性投资 机会。成长赛道可以关注饮料、零食、保健品行业的投资机会。其中，饮料行业重点关注能量饮料赛道 的优质龙头;零食行业关注在渠道和品类创新方面与时俱进的优质龙头;保健品可以关注在年轻消费品类 和高增长功效赛道布局的龙头。 食品饮料逆市走强 食品饮料股早间集体走强，饮料乳品方向领涨，板块指数一度放量大涨逾2%，连续第5日上扬。庄园牧 场(002910)开盘仅约5分钟就直线涨停，连续第2日封板，养元饮品亦触及涨停，新乳业、麦趣尔、东鹏 饮料等涨幅居前。 休闲食品、农产品加工、预制菜、调味品等板块也纷纷逆市上扬，巴比食品、双塔食品、惠发食品、有 友食品等涨幅居前。 消息面，百事(PEP.US)于美东时间10月9日盘前公布第三季度业绩，数据显示，三季度百事营收达239.4 亿美元 ...

消息面，百事(PEP.US)于美东时间10月9日盘前公布第三季度业绩，数据显示，三季度百事营收达239.4亿美元，略高于 华尔街预期的238.5亿美元，调整后每股收益为2.29美元，同样超出2.27美元的市场预期。受此利好刺激，隔夜百事股价 高开高走，放量大涨逾4%，创3个月来最大单日涨幅。 此外，前期西贝"预制菜争议"受到国务院食品安全委员会办公室高度重视，已组织工信部、商务部、国家卫生健康委、 市场监管总局等部门认真研究，加快推进预制菜国家标准制定，大力推广餐饮环节使用预制菜明示，更好维护消费者知 情权和选择权。 今日早盘，A股低开震荡整理，上证指数回试3900点支撑，科技成长股调整较多，科创50跌逾4%，失守1500点，创业板 指也大跌逾3%，跌破3200点，市场成交保持平稳。 盘面上，食品饮料、培育钻石、水泥、地面兵装等板块涨幅居前，能源金属、半导体、光伏设备、医疗服务等板块跌幅 居前。 食品饮料逆市走强 食品饮料股早间集体走强，饮料乳品方向领涨，板块指数一度放量大涨逾2%，连续第5日上扬。庄园牧场（002910）开 盘仅约5分钟就直线涨停，连续第2日封板，养元饮品亦触及涨停，新乳业、麦趣尔、东鹏饮料 ...

证券之星消息，10月9日饮料乳品板块较上一交易日上涨0.66%，庄园牧场领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3933.97，上涨1.32%。深证成指报收于13725.56，上涨1.47%。饮料乳品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002910 | 庄园牧场 | 10.86 | 10.03% | 23.90万 | 2.54亿 | | 603156 | 乔元饮品 | 31.29 | 6.18% | 32.81万 | 10.42 Z | | 300898 | 熊猫乳品 | 26.09 | 1.79% | 3.08万 | 7900.94万 | | 600887 | 伊利股份 | 27.63 | 1.28% | 71.15万 | 19.40亿 | | 600419 | 天润乳业 | 10.32 | 1.18% | 5.65万 | 5792.30万 | | 002570 | 贝因美 | 6.24 | 1.13% | 44.02万 | 2.71亿 | | 000848 | 承德國露 ...

证券之星消息，9月30日饮料乳品板块较上一交易日上涨1.35%，东鹏饮料领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3882.78，上涨0.52%。深证成指报收于13526.51，上涨0.35%。饮料乳品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603156 | 养元饮品 | 29.47 | -2.74% | 32.92万 | 2966 | | 002329 | 皇氏集团 | 3.53 | -1.40% | 15.19万 | 5375.54万 | | 300892 | 铝酒食品 | 34.35 | -1.01% | 2.30万 | 7978.46万 | | 000848 | 承德露露 | 8.43 | -0.82% | - 5.76万 | 4865.34万 | | 001318 | 阳光乳业 | 13.76 | -0.72% | 2.91万 | 4027.33万 | | 300898 | 熊猫乳品 | 25.63 | -0.66% | 3.15万 | 8125.68万 | | 6810 ...

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector increased by 0.9% on September 29, with Yangyuan Beverage leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the beverage and dairy sector showed varied performance, with notable gainers including: - Chi Yuan Beverage (603156) at 30.30, up 7.68% with a trading volume of 446,200 shares and a turnover of 1.337 billion [1] - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) at 290.55, up 1.75% with a trading volume of 16,700 shares and a turnover of 480 million [1] - Other stocks like Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) and Huangshi Group (002329) also saw modest increases of 1.47% and 1.13% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 224 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 135 million [2] - Notable capital flows included: - Institutional net inflow for Dongpeng Beverage at 56.24 million, while retail saw a net outflow of 55.29 million [3] - Bright Dairy (600597) had a net inflow of 9.92 million from institutional investors, with retail outflows totaling 8.16 million [3]

Traditional Dividend Assets - White appliances' cash flow ratio decreased to 26% in Q2 2025, primarily due to increased allocation of financial assets impacting cash flow space[11] - The cash flow ratio for liquor reached 55% in Q2 2025, with a reduction in the allocation of financial assets compared to previous quarters[19] Cash Flow Improvement Assets - Black appliances' cash flow ratio was 24% in Q2 2025, with capital expenditure reduced to a historical low of 0.7, indicating a potential shift to a new high expenditure cycle[24] - Lighting equipment's cash flow ratio improved to 31% in Q2 2025, as financial asset allocation decreased, allowing cash flow to return to positive[33] - Beauty care's cash flow ratio was 47% in Q2 2025, driven by reduced capital expenditure, which fell to a historical low of 1.4[39] Stable Cash Flow Assets - Textile manufacturing maintained a cash flow ratio of 21% in Q2 2025, with stable cash flow generation since 2022[47] - The apparel and home textile sector achieved a cash flow ratio of 52% in Q2 2025, entering a phase of stable cash flow generation due to reduced capital expenditure[51] Assets Under Pressure - Traditional Chinese medicine and beverage sectors are under pressure, with profitability not showing signs of improvement, particularly in the context of centralized procurement affecting traditional Chinese medicine[3] - The non-liquor beverage sector, including beer and wine, continues to face challenges, with profitability remaining under pressure[3]

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，随着10月底三季报披露期临近，股价与业绩的相关性逐渐提升。9月以来盈利预测上修较多的行业主要集中 在：科技（游戏、计算机设备、通信设备、元件）、先进制造（摩托车、航空航海装备、家电零部件、电池等）、周期（贵金属、玻璃玻纤、钢铁、工业 金属等）、消费（饮料乳品、调味发酵品、教育等）、金融（券商保险、城商行）。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 10月进入三季报交易窗口，景气投资有效性提升。我们统计了全年各个月份个股涨跌幅排名与业绩增速排名的相关性，可以看到，随着10月底三季报披露 期临近，股价与业绩的相关性逐渐提升。 其中，9月以来涨幅偏低的行业主要包括：航天航海装备、小金属、券商保险、教育、农化制品、医疗服务、白电、化学原料、养殖等。 9月以来盈利预测上修较多的行业主要集中在：科技（游戏、计算机设备、通信设备、元件）、先进制造（摩托车、航空航海装备、家电零部件、电池 等）、周期（贵金属、玻璃玻纤、钢铁、工业金属等）、消费（饮料乳品、调味发酵品、教育等）、金融（券商保险、城商行）。 | 板块 | 一级行业 | 二级行业 | 9月以来2025E净利润 上修公司的利润占比 | 2025 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日饮料乳品板块主力资金净流出1.19亿元，游资资金净流入7623.51万元，散户资 金净流入4255.28万元。饮料乳品板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603156 | 养元饮品 | 28.14 | 10.01% | 15.22万 | | 4.28亿 | | 600429 | 三元股份 | 4.68 | 1.74% | 17.32万 | | 8156.18万 | | 002910 | 庄园牧场 | 9.50 | 1.39% | 4.47万 | | 4236.79万 | | 600887 | 伊利股份 | 27.26 | 1.08% | 63.88万 | | 17.31亿 | | 000848 | 其德國露 | 8.51 | 0.95% | 7.20万 | | 6110.10万 | | 002329 | 皇氏集团 | 3.54 | 0.57% | 14.45万 | | 5117.87万 | | 605300 | 佳禾食品 ...