饲料养殖周度报告 新纪元期货研究20251121 葛妍 从业资格证号：F3052060 投资咨询证号：Z0017892 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要饲料养殖期现货价格走势 | 品 种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 周涨跌幅 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/13 | | 周变动 | | | 现货指标 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/13 | 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | （%) | | | | | | | （%) | | 豆 粕 | M2601 | 3017 | 3071 | -54 . | 00 | -1 . | 76 | 豆粕 ： 43%蛋 白 汇总 ： 价格 山 ： | 2990 | 3020 | -30 | 00 . | -0 99 . | | 菜 粕 | RM601 | 2412 | 2492 | ...

Report Overview - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Feed and Aquaculture Daily Report - Research Areas: Pig, Corn and Starch, Egg Pig Market Core View - Policy disturbances may affect the long - term supply of pigs. Strategically, a long - term bullish view can be taken, but in the short - to medium - term, fundamentals prevail. Recently, the second - fattening replenishment has weakened, and the near - term slaughter pressure persists, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a stronger trend [3] Price Information - **Spot Prices**: The national average spot price of pigs is 11.54 yuan, up 0.07 yuan (0.61%). Prices in different regions such as Henan, Hunan, etc., also show varying degrees of increase [4] - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different pig futures contracts show mixed trends. For example, the price of the Pig 01 contract is 11,560 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.22%), while the Pig 03 contract is 11,350 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%) [5] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of different pig futures contracts and between regions and contracts show significant fluctuations. For example, the LH01 - 03 spread is 180 yuan, down 45 yuan (- 20%) [10] Corn and Starch Market Core View - The spot market of corn was generally stable, with individual enterprises raising prices. After the recent continuous rebound of corn prices, the supply - side's reluctance to sell has eased, and the arrival volume in Shandong has increased. The downstream's willingness to purchase at high prices has decreased, and the price has entered a short - term balance. The futures market showed a slight correction. The starch market was stable, and the futures market followed the decline of corn and fell more than corn [14] Price Information - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different corn and corn starch futures contracts all showed increases. For example, the price of the Corn 01 contract is 2,175 yuan, up 7 yuan (0.32%), and the Corn Starch 01 contract is 2,480 yuan, up 13 yuan (0.53%) [15] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different ports and the basis of corn and corn starch in different regions also showed certain changes. For example, the price of corn in Shekou Port is 2,370 yuan, up 10 yuan, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract is 62 yuan, up 14 yuan [19] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of corn and corn starch showed different trends. For example, the Corn 1 - 5 month - to - month spread is - 73 yuan, down 12 yuan [22] - **US Corn**: The prices of CBOT corn, soybeans, and wheat showed slight fluctuations. The US Gulf and West Coast's duty - paid prices decreased, and there were corresponding import profits [27] Egg Market Core View - In the long - term, the egg - laying hen production capacity is still in excess, and there is significant price pressure. In the short - term, due to the rapid decline of egg prices after the festival, some farmers have culled or molted hens. Overall, the production capacity is at a high level but is approaching an inflection point, and the general trend is still weak [30] Price Information - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different egg futures contracts showed mixed trends. The Egg 01 contract is 3,180 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.16%), and the Egg 09 contract is 3,872 yuan, up 13 yuan (0.34%) [31] - **Spot Prices**: The prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas, as well as different types of eggs, all showed declines. For example, the price of eggs in the main production areas is 2.86 yuan, down 0.02 yuan (- 0.69%) [32] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of different egg futures contracts and between the main production areas and the main contract showed significant fluctuations. For example, the Egg 1 - 5 spread is - 288 yuan, down 18 yuan (6.67%) [42]

从天马科技十大流通股东角度 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 数据显示，国泰基金旗下1只基金位居天马科技十大流通股东。国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF（159865）三季 度增持268.89万股，持有股数769.38万股，占流通股的比例为1.53%。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约653.97 万元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 11月19日，天马科技涨5.61%，截至发稿，报16.00元/股，成交4.33亿元，换手率5.55%，总市值80.58亿 元。 截至发稿，梁杏累计任职时间9年167天，现任基金资产总规模306.17亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 1112.34%， 任职期间最差基金回报-55.54%。 资料显示，福建天马科技集团股份有限公司位于福建省福清市上迳镇工业区，成立日期2005年12月13 日，上市日期2017年1月17日，公司主营业务涉及从事特种水产配合饲料研发、生产、销售。主营业务 收入构成为：畜禽饲料销售52.67%，特水饲料销售22.77%，养殖销售20.46% ...

国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF（159865）基金经理为梁杏。 11月17日，天马科技涨9.97%，截至发稿，报15.88元/股，成交9581.56万元，换手率1.20%，总市值 79.98亿元。 资料显示，福建天马科技集团股份有限公司位于福建省福清市上迳镇工业区，成立日期2005年12月13 日，上市日期2017年1月17日，公司主营业务涉及从事特种水产配合饲料研发、生产、销售。主营业务 收入构成为：畜禽饲料销售52.67%，特水饲料销售22.77%，养殖销售20.46%，食品销售13.68%，原料 销售5.27%，其他(补充)0.42%，动保产品销售0.13%。 从天马科技十大流通股东角度 数据显示，国泰基金旗下1只基金位居天马科技十大流通股东。国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF（159865）三季 度增持268.89万股，持有股数769.38万股，占流通股的比例为1.53%。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约1107.9 万元。 国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF（159865）成立日期2021年3月1日，最新规模60.97亿。今年以来收益16.52%， 同类排名3092/4216；近一年收益12.55%，同类排名3012/3956；成立以来亏 ...

饲料养殖周度报告 新纪元期货研究20251107 葛妍 从业资格证号：F3052060 投资咨询证号：Z0017892 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要饲料养殖期现货价格走势 基本面 | 类别 | 关键词 | 描述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 成本端 | 天气 | 美国中西部地区周末气温将下降，天气整体有利于余下收割工作的进行。 | | | 美豆 | 根据美国农业部（USDA）的全国农业统计服务局（NASS）官方发布的通知，该机构将于11月14日发布农作 | | | | 物产量报告和全球农业供需预估报告。这份报告原定于11月10日发布，但由于美国政府自10月1日起基本处 | | | | 于停摆状态。 | | | 巴西 | 经纪商斯通艾克斯公司(StoneX)发布报告，预测巴西2025/26年度大豆产量将达到创纪录的1.789亿吨，较 | | | | 10月初预测的1.786亿吨上调30万吨，这也是连续第二个月调高巴西大豆产量。 | | | 阿根廷 | 布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所发布报告称，近几日，阿根廷农户开始播种2025/26年度大豆，并指出多数农田 | | | | 的土壤墒情处于"最佳" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the "weak reality" of the market remains unchanged with many uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the soybean meal rebound. The market trading sentiment has cooled, and during the off - season of aquaculture, the continuous upward momentum of rapeseed meal is limited [36]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - The closing price of the main soybean meal futures contract M2601 was 2938 on October 23, 2025, up 1.07% from the previous week. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2940, up 0.68% [4]. - The closing price of the main rapeseed meal futures contract RM601 was 2339 on October 23, 2025, down 1.06% from the previous week. The average rapeseed meal price in China was 2460, down 1.60% [4]. - The closing price of the main corn futures contract C2601 was 2140 on October 23, 2025, up 1.37% from the previous week. The aggregated price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2180, up 1.40% [4]. - The closing price of the main live hog futures contract LH2601 was 12200 on October 23, 2025, up 2.48% from the previous week. The average selling price of commercial hogs in Henan was 11.87, up 5.89% [4]. - The closing price of the main egg futures contract JD2511 was 3027 on October 23, 2025, up 7.42% from the previous week. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 2.86, down 2.39% [4]. Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - The La Nina phenomenon may last until February next year, and the key growing season of South American soybeans may face drought threats with a production reduction expectation [10]. - As of the week of October 16, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1474354 tons. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season so far reached 5537802 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.9% [10]. - As of last Thursday, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 24%, higher than the previous week and the same period in 2024. Brazil's Conab predicted a soybean harvest of nearly 1.78 billion tons this season, a 3.6% increase from the previous year [10]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 51.1 million tons, and the soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decline from the previous year [10]. Supply - In September 2025, China's soybean import volume was 12.869 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2% [10]. Demand - The domestic spot market supply remains in a loose pattern, and the oil mill operation rate has recovered to over 60% [10]. - On October 23, the total soybean meal trading volume was 148,600 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous day [10]. Inventory - In the 42nd week of 2025, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills was 976,200 tons, a decrease of 102,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 9.54% [10]. Supply Side - Import - As of October 24, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 487.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 6 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of U.S. West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 10 US dollars per ton from the previous week [17]. Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week of October 23, the soybean pressing profit was - 144.20 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20.65 yuan per ton from the previous week [23]. - As of the week of October 17, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2988 million tons, an increase of 62,300 tons from the previous week [23]. - As of October 17, the operation rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 58%, a recovery of 1 percentage point from the previous week [23]. Inventory Side - As of October 24, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.1127 million tons, an increase of 924,800 tons from the previous week [30]. - As of October 17, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 963,100 tons, a decrease of 83,600 tons from the previous week [30]. Demand Side - As of October 17, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 122,300 tons, an increase of 81,800 tons from the previous week [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, with sufficient arrival of imported soybeans and abundant inventories of soybeans and soybean meal, the weak pattern of soybean meal is hard to change, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the trade side. As aquaculture enters the off - season, downstream purchasing and sales are weak, and it will run weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean series is limited [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures: The closing price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract on October 16, 2025, was 2907 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 1.09%. The RM601 rapeseed meal futures contract was 2364 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.92%. The C2601 corn futures contract was 2111 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. The LH2601 live pig futures contract was 11905 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.67%. The JD2511 egg futures contract was 2818 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% [4]. - Spot: The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong on October 16, 2025, was 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 0.34%. The rapeseed meal price in China was 2500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96%. The price of second - class national standard corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38%. The average出栏 price of commercial pigs in Henan was 11.21 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 2.93 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.35% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Information - Cost - side: In the US Midwest, most areas had good weather this week, which was conducive to harvesting. US soybean crushing data was strong. In September, the US soybean crushing volume reached 197.863 million bushels, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. Brazil planned to export 2.153936 million tons of soybeans, 672,337 tons of soybean meal, and 1.8898 million tons of corn in the week of October 12 - 18. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 51.1 million tons, and the 2025/26 soybean planting area was expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [8]. - Supply - side: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, a 4.8% month - on - month increase and a 13.2% year - on - year increase [8]. - Demand - side: The domestic soybean crushing volume remained at a high level overall and entered a seasonal downward phase in October. As of the week of October 10, the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 1.29 million tons [8]. - Inventory: In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts increased [8]. 3.3 Supply - side - Import - As of October 16, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 481.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The CNF price of imported soybeans from the US West was 444.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton from the previous week [16]. 3.4 Supply - side - Pressing - As of the week of October 16, the soybean crushing profit was - 123.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.20 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of October 10, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2365 million tons, a decrease of 1.0255 million tons from the previous week. As of October 10, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 57%, a recovery of 36 percentage points from the previous week [22]. 3.5 Inventory - side - As of October 17, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.1882 million tons, an increase of 0.6085 million tons from the previous week, and it was at a medium level in the past five years. As of October 10, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0467 million tons, a decrease of 0.1061 million tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level in the past five years [24]. 3.6 Demand - side - As of September 5, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 40,500 tons, a decrease of 130,600 tons from the previous week, and it was at a low level in the past five years [29]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - The strong US soybean crushing data overshadowed export concerns, and CBOT soybeans rebounded from the low level. Under the pressure of supply, domestic double - meal continued to decline. The US government's continuous shutdown led to a lack of export sales and supply - demand data, and the market sentiment remained cautious. After the festival, domestic oil mills resumed operation quickly, but the downstream replenishment enthusiasm was poor, resulting in slow inventory reduction of soybean meal. The market is closely watching whether the policy of imposing special port fees on US ships will affect soybean ships. The rapeseed meal market shows a pattern of both supply and demand being weak. The low operating rate of oil mills leads to a tight overall supply of rapeseed meal in the spot market. As the temperature gradually drops, aquaculture enters the off - season, and the overall market trading is light, with mainly rigid demand procurement [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the price of US soybeans and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans support from the import cost side, so soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term; the oil mill's operating rate remains low, and the demand - side support is limited, so it should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [37]. - In the long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean sector is limited [38]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Prices | Variety | Futures Main Contract Closing Price (Sep 11, 2025) | Futures Main Contract Closing Price (Sep 3, 2025) | Futures Weekly Change | Futures Weekly Increase/Decrease (%) | Spot Price (Sep 11, 2025) | Spot Price (Sep 3, 2025) | Spot Weekly Change | Spot Weekly Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal | 3088 | 3066 | 22 | 0.72 | 2990 | 2990 | 0 | 0 | | Rapeseed Meal | 2567 | 2521 | 46 | 1.82 | 2620 | 2580 | 40 | 1.55 | | Corn | 2202 | 2193 | 9 | 0.41 | 2320 | 2310 | 10 | 0.43 | | Live Pigs | 13320 | 13550 | - 230 | - 1.70 | 13.5 | 13.96 | - 0.46 | - 3.30 | | Eggs | 3044 | 3011 | 33 | 1.10 | 3.53 | 3.19 | 0.34 | 10.66 | [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: The temperature in the Midwest of the US will be higher than normal from the weekend to early next week, and rainfall will also increase. The dry weather in the southern and eastern regions continues to have an adverse impact on corn and soybean crops. As of the week of September 7, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybean crops was 64%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, slightly lower than 65% in the same period in 2024 but higher than the five - year average of 59%. Brazilian soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7430000 tons, 44% higher than in September 2024. The estimated soybean output in Argentina's 2025/2026 season is 47000000 tons [9]. - **Supply**: From January to August 2025, China's total soybean imports reached 7331200 tons, a 4.0% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [9]. - **Demand**: Since September, as the temperature drops, the operating rate of the terminal aquaculture industry has gradually recovered, the rigid demand for soybean meal has recovered, and the market's enthusiasm for purchasing soybean meal has increased [9]. - **Inventory**: The current national oil mill's soybean meal inventory pressure is significant, and the phenomenon of oil mills urging提货 is common. As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 116000 tons, an increase of 9700 tons from the previous week, a 9.09% increase [9]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis - **Import**: As of September 11, the CNF Brazilian soybean import price was 485.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton from the previous week; the CNF US West soybean import price was 442.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week [14]. - **Pressing**: As of the week of September 11, the soybean pressing profit was 86.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of September 05, the domestic oil mill's weekly soybean pressing volume was 2354800 tons, a decrease of 42700 tons from the previous week. As of September 05, the domestic soybean oil mill's operating rate was 60%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week [19][21]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - As of September 12, the imported soybean port inventory was 6635600 tons, a decrease of 142900 tons from the previous week, and it was at a low level in the past 5 years. As of September 5, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1063900 tons, an increase of 49000 tons from the previous week, and it was at a moderately high level in the past 5 years [26]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - As of September 05, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 92200 tons, a decrease of 39300 tons from the previous week, and it was at a medium level in the past 5 years [28]. 3.6 Pig - side Supply and Demand No specific content provided in the summary scope. 3.7 Pig - side Slaughter and Breeding Profits No specific content provided in the summary scope. 3.8 Strategy Recommendation - Before the release of the USDA supply - demand report this Friday, US soybeans will fluctuate, and domestic double - meal will also maintain a fluctuating trend. The demand from China, the largest importer of US soybeans, is weak, and the market generally expects the US soybean yield forecast to be lowered. In the domestic spot market, the trading sentiment in the soybean meal spot market has recovered, and the oil mill's spot transactions have increased slightly, but traders are still in a slight loss [37]. - For rapeseed meal, currently affected by the decrease in Canadian rapeseed imports, the oil mill's operating level is low. Spot transactions are average, the demand side has not yet recovered, the substitution effect of soybean meal still exists, the aquaculture industry's prosperity is low, and downstream procurement is cautious [37]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus is on the producing area's weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, trade soybean and rapeseed meal on a short - term basis. With US soybean facing pressure from high - yield expectations and domestic supply remaining loose, focus on the outcome of Sino - US negotiations for soybean meal. For rapeseed meal, although port and coastal oil mill inventories are decreasing, weak terminal demand exists, so pay attention to trade flow changes [45]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [46]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Soybean Meal**: The futures主力合约 (M2601) closed at 3039 on August 28, 2025, down 121 from August 20, a 3.83% drop. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2980, down 40 from August 20, a 1.32% drop [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures主力合约 (RM601) closed at 2483 on August 28, 2025, down 144 from August 20, a 5.48% drop. The average spot price of rapeseed meal in China was 2540, down 80 from August 20, a 3.05% drop [4]. - **Corn**: The futures主力合约 (C2511) closed at 2185 on August 28, 2025, up 15 from August 20, a 0.69% increase. The spot price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture at Bayuquan Port was 2310, unchanged from August 20 [4]. - **Pig**: The futures主力合约 (LH2511) closed at 13590 on August 28, 2025, down 185 from August 20, a 1.34% drop. The spot price of commercial pigs in Henan was 13.64, down 0.05 from August 20, a 0.37% drop [4]. - **Egg**: The futures主力合约 (JD2510) closed at 2930 on August 28, 2025, down 142 from August 20, a 4.62% drop. The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.22, down 0.02 from August 20, a 0.62% drop [4]. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - **Weather**: In August, the weather in the core production areas such as the US plains and the Midwest was favorable, and the overall good - quality rate of soybeans remained high. The latest US crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US soybeans rose from 68% the previous week to 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. September is gradually entering the early harvest stage, and the weather trading window is narrowing [11]. - **US Soybeans**: Entering the early harvest stage in September, focus on US soybean export demand [11]. - **Brazil**: On August 27, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 would be 8.9 million tons, slightly lower than the previous week's estimate of 8.94 million tons. If the forecast comes true, it will be an 11.5% increase from 7.98 million tons in August 2024 but lower than the export volume of 12.02 million tons in July this year [11]. - **Argentina**: On August 28, the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture said that the pace of soybean sales in Argentina slowed down last week. As of August 20, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 29.9 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, 390,000 tons higher than a week ago, compared with 26.14 million tons in the same period in 2024. Last week, the sales volume was 820,000 tons [11]. - **Supply - Import**: In July 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record 16.7 million tons. Imports from Brazil increased significantly, accounting for 89% of the total imports, reaching 10.39 million tons, a 13.9% year - on - year increase. Imports from the US were only 420,000 tons, a 11.5% year - on - year decrease. Imports from Argentina were 560,000 tons in July, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 670,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 104.7% [11]. - **Demand** - **Pressing**: As of the week ending August 22, the actual soybean pressing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%. The soybean inventory was 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons from the previous week, a 0.31% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 394,000 tons, a 5.46% decrease. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons from the previous week, a 3.8% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 445,300 tons, a 29.71% decrease [11]. - **Transaction**: On August 28, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 126,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 106,000 tons [11]. - **Inventory** - **Oil Mill Inventory**: As of August 22, the cumulative soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 7.1 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.04 million tons. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will pick up next week, the soybean pressing volume will rise to about 2.5 million tons, and the soybean meal output will increase. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills may rise above 1.1 million tons by the end of August [11]. Supply Side - Import - As of August 28, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 484.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of imported soybeans from the US West was 453.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars per ton from the previous week [19]. Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week ending August 28, the soybean pressing profit was 86.60 yuan per ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 22, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4402 million tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 22, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 62%, the same as the previous week [24]. Inventory Side - As of August 29, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 6.8546 million tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a low level in the past five years. As of August 22, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 985,500 tons, an increase of 11,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a medium level in the past five years [27]. Demand Side - As of August 22, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 155,000 tons, a decrease of 70,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in the past five years [33]. Pig Supply and Demand No specific content provided for further summary. Pig Slaughter and Breeding Profit No specific content provided for further summary. Strategy Recommendation - **Short - term**: Trade soybean and rapeseed meal on a short - term basis. For soybean meal, focus on the outcome of Sino - US negotiations; for rapeseed meal, focus on trade flow changes [45]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [46]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning Focus on产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [47].

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