行业深度研究 | 通信 IDC 需求测算逻辑、估值探讨与标的梳理 IDC 行业报告（二） 引言：上篇报告中，我们讨论了 IDC 是一门什么样的生意、AIDC 与 IDC 的 差异、如何理解 IDC 需求、如何把握供给端发展演变，以及 IDC 将何去何 从。本篇报告是我们 IDC 行业报告的第二篇，聚焦市场关注点，重点讨论量 化视角下的 IDC 需求和 IDC 估值两个问题，并梳理相关标的。 如何多视角测算 IDC 需求？我们提供四种 IDC 需求测算逻辑：1）资本开支 视角：从 BBAT 资本开支计划推算，内含两个测算逻辑思路，资本开支/单台 服务器价格或单 W 投资金额，再推导至 AI 服务器需求量及其对应的 IDC 能 耗。2）应用的 Token 调用量视角：从 token 需求到 FLOPS 需求到 GW 需 求。3）IDC 厂商收入视角：预测 IDC 主要上市公司未来 IDC 收入，结合其 市场份额，反推 IDC 市场规模。4）服务器出货量视角：跟踪 AI 服务器季度 出货量，从而推算 IDC 上架需求。四种思路各有优劣，其共通之处在于把握 IDC 核心设备 AI 服务器，包括其价格、功率、性能指标。 ...

光伏新技术如 BC 电池、少银技术及辅材创新是竞争关键。光伏主链端 呈现 Beta 行情，逆变器和储能板块值得关注，储能对光伏需求支撑至 关重要，光储两端预计保持良好投资趋势。 固态电池目前处于产业早期阶段，看好设备和材料领域。头部企业在固 态设备中试线已有采购行为，半固态电池增加了固态电解质徒步，并提 高压实密度，同时减少了电解质用量，对设备端产生较大影响。 AIDC 领域，英伟达或重新申请销售 H20，对中国销售 H20 有望恢复， 是驱动板块的重要因素。HVDC、柴油发机组以及服务器供配系统是非 常重要的方向，相比 BBU 和超级计算机，这些方向可能有更好的投资机 会。 光伏行业需求端有哪些潜在因素可能催化需求增长？ 供给侧改革持续推进，持续看好光伏、固态电池 20250720 摘要 光伏行业供给侧改革有望理顺产业链价格，促进行业健康发展。多晶硅 期货价格上涨及硅片价格上扬预示成本传导，关注硅料价格对产业链盈 利修复的积极作用，若按五年投资回收期计算，硅料价格或稳定在 6 万 元左右。 市场对光伏需求担忧可能被高估，海外光储项目是重要催化因素。阿布 扎比 5.2 吉瓦光伏+19 吉瓦时储能项目全生命周期 ...

通信周观点： 1）英伟达 H20 恢复对华销售，本周数据中心板块大涨。英伟达宣布重启 H20 销售，并将在中国新推 RTX PRO 芯片， 该芯片主要应用于计算机图形渲染、数字孪生仿真和人工智能训练。受此消息提振，国内云计算及数据中心相关股票 集体上涨，反映出市场对算力供给改善的乐观预期。我们认为 H20 恢复供货利好国内 IDC 厂商，华为云、阿里云等超 大规模云厂商的 AI 训练和大模型部署能力有望提升。展望 2H25，我们预计国内互联网巨头资本支出环比有望保持增 长，带动国产算力链共振。2）ASML 和台积电 2Q25 业绩超预期，AI 需求为核心驱动力。ASML2Q25 净销售额 77 亿欧 元，同比增长 23.2%；净利润 22.9 亿欧元，同比增长 45.1%。台积电第二季度营收 9,338 亿新台币，同比增长 38.6%； 净利润 3,983 亿元台币，环比/同比增长 10.2%/60.7%，远超市场预期。台积电业绩超预期主要得益于 AI 驱动的 3/5nm 需求结构性增长，尤其是英伟达等北美大客户订单的强劲表现。展望未来，公司预计 2025 年销售额将同比增长 30%左 右，高于此前 20%的 ...

Summary of IDC Industry Update and Company Recommendations Industry Overview - The IDC industry is shifting its core competitiveness from energy consumption metrics to scale effects and first-mover advantages in the AI era, with ultra-large IDC clusters, especially high-power clusters, becoming crucial. The power demand per cabinet has increased to over 100 kilowatts [1][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments - Long-term trends in computing power investment remain unchanged, although short-term adjustments may occur due to chip procurement and deployment rhythms. The growth in TOKEN volume and model iteration value continues to support ongoing investments, altering industry logic [1][5]. - The IDC sector has previously faced demand concerns, chip bans, and regulatory guidance, but the outlook is improving. The demand for computing power for AI model training is rapidly increasing, with major overseas companies accelerating data center construction [1][2][9]. - The chip ban previously led to a significant inventory write-down for NVIDIA's H20 servers, affecting approximately 390,000 server sales, corresponding to 160-200 megawatts of IT capacity. NVIDIA plans to launch the RTX Pro GPU, and domestic GPUs will also be delivered, alleviating tender and listing issues [1][10][11]. - Regulatory guidance has extended the approval time for energy consumption metrics, limiting local capacity oversupply, which benefits leading companies. The first batch of energy consumption metrics is expected to be approved in the third quarter [1][12]. Company-Specific Insights - Runze Technology has resumed its IDC renovation and is expected to achieve an 80%-90% listing rate by year-end, with a projected quarter-on-quarter performance increase. The company anticipates selling 200 megawatts of projects and delivering 220 megawatts of new projects, with a successful public REITs issuance expected to yield over 2 billion in investment returns [3][13][14]. - The company has a robust cash reserve of over 5 billion and plans to utilize public REITs for light asset operations, aiming to acquire related companies in the IDC industry [15]. - Runze Technology's energy consumption metrics have increased by 130% by the end of 2024, with all projects having the necessary metrics, laying a solid foundation for long-term growth [16]. Investment Opportunities and Risks - Despite recent pressures, the IDC sector is showing signs of recovery, with demand for high-power cabinets increasing. Short-term adjustments may present investment opportunities, particularly in companies with high-quality existing resources and listing rates [7][8]. - Recommended companies for further attention include: - GDS Holdings - Century Internet - Huayun Data - David Technology - Aofei Data - Data Port These companies have received high recognition in the market for their public REITs offerings and have various development highlights [17]. Overall Industry Outlook - The IDC sector's previous stock price suppression factors are improving, leading to a more optimistic outlook for future development. Runze Technology is the primary recommendation, with continued attention on other listed companies [18].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing significant growth in sectors such as optical modules, AI computing power, and IDC computing power leasing, with the AI-focused ETF, Huaxia (159381), rising nearly 3% [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang, a leading optical module company, forecasts a net profit of 3.6 billion to 4.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.64% to 86.57% [1] - The company attributes its growth to strong capital expenditures from CSP customers and increasing demand for 400G and 800G optical modules driven by AI infrastructure and ASIC chips [1] Group 2 - The computing power sector shows high visibility in performance, strong industry sentiment, and significant capital attention, indicating potential for repeated activity [2] - The Huaxia AI ETF tracks the AI index of the ChiNext board, with over 33% weight in optical modules, and includes major companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication among its top holdings [2] - The ETF has a low management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05%, making it competitive among similar funds [2]

纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%，阿里巴巴、哔哩哔哩涨超6%。七巨头多数上涨，英伟达涨近5%。 （持续更新中……） 21:34 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2% 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%，阿里巴巴、哔哩哔哩涨超6%。 21:30 美股开盘｜美股三大指数集体高开 七巨头多数上涨 美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.01%，纳指涨0.93%，标普500指数涨0.53%。七巨头多数上涨，英伟 达涨近5%，确认恢复H20芯片在中国销售。芯片股普涨，超威半导体涨超5%，芯片行业情绪改善。中 概股涨多跌少，阿里巴巴涨超6%。世纪互联涨超14%，市场看好中国云计算和IDC行业。TRADE DESK涨超13%，公司将被纳入标普500指数。 | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44467.14 | 7.49 | 0.02% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 20818.21 c 177.88 | | 0.86% | | 标普500 | 6298.82 | 30.26 0.48% | | 21:20 美联储理事鲍曼：敦促银行采取更多措施改善信贷准入 据外媒报道 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant rise in sectors related to optical modules, optical communication, and the Nvidia supply chain, with the AI ETF tracking the ChiNext index increasing by 5.52% [1] - Key stocks in the AI ETF include leading optical module companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, and Tianfu Communication, with the top ten holdings also featuring major players in chip design and cloud computing [1] - The ETF has a low annual management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05%, making it one of the most cost-effective options in its category [2] Group 2 - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to attend the China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo on July 16, marking his third visit to China this year [2] - The demand for high-performance chips like GPUs is expected to drive a surge in related equipment needs, benefiting domestic leading manufacturers who have advantages in market share and technology [2] - The industry is anticipated to experience high growth, with leading companies likely to capture more market share due to their established positions and technological expertise [2]

Group 1: Stock Performance - Multiple stocks have shown significant price increases, with notable performances including Lvtian Machinery with a 10.02% rise over three consecutive days, and Dayilong with a 9.99% increase also over three days [3][4] - New Yi Sheng is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 328%-385% [5] - Stocks related to liquid cooling for data centers, such as Bohui Co., have seen a rise of 19.97%, driven by increased demand for cooling solutions in AI applications [8][7] Group 2: Industry Trends - The liquid cooling system is identified as a crucial component for data centers, with a surge in demand attributed to AI applications, leading to a significant growth forecast for this sector [7] - The rare earth permanent magnet industry has experienced a notable increase in exports, with June exports reaching 7,742.2 tons, a month-on-month increase of over 30% [9] - The Chinese innovative drug sector is considered to be undervalued, with a market capitalization only 14%-15% of that of U.S. counterparts, despite contributing nearly 33% to global innovation [16] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - Experts suggest that the next phase will focus on enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of the system, improving the efficiency of mergers and acquisitions, and fostering patient capital [11] - Stocks like Jinpu Titanium and Fuda Alloy have seen initial gains of 10.11% and 10.01% respectively, attributed to merger and acquisition activities [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Robotics and AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) Industry**: The humanoid robot sector is viewed as a starting point for a trillion-dollar market, with significant growth potential anticipated in the second half of 2025. [1][2][4] - **Industrial Control Industry**: The overall demand is expected to grow positively in 2025, particularly in lithium battery, logistics, packaging, and engineering machinery sectors. [1][9] - **Electric Power Industry**: Investment in the electric grid is maintaining high growth, with a 20% year-on-year increase in the first five months of 2025. [1][35] Key Insights and Arguments Robotics Sector - **Market Performance**: The humanoid robot sector performed well in Q1 2025 but saw a slowdown in Q2. Positive changes are emerging due to adjustments in Tesla's plans, which have already been reflected in stock prices. [2][4] - **Product Development**: Companies like Xiaopeng and Xiaomi are increasing investments in humanoid robots, with new products being launched and orders starting to materialize, although large-scale commercial applications are still in the trial phase. [5][6] - **Component Innovation**: Rapid advancements in components such as dexterous hands and joint modules are noted, with lightweight materials becoming a significant focus. [3][5] AIDC Sector - **Challenges and Opportunities**: The AIDC sector faces challenges such as supply chain issues and domestic restrictions affecting capital expenditure. However, new products and models like Deep Seek are expected to drive demand. [6][7] - **Market Valuation**: AIDC companies are currently valued around 30 times earnings, with expectations for improvement in 2026 as supply chain issues are resolved. [7] Industrial Control Sector - **Demand Growth**: The industrial control sector is projected to see growth driven by structural transformation needs rather than large-scale capital expenditures. [9][32] - **Impact of Trade Wars**: The sector has been slightly affected by trade wars and tariffs, leading to a dip in orders in Q2 2025 compared to Q1. [9] Electric Power Sector - **Investment Trends**: Electric grid investments are expected to exceed 10% growth in 2025, with significant funding allocated for equipment updates and new projects. [35][36] - **Market Dynamics**: The transition to a market-oriented electricity system is accelerating, with expectations for the national spot market to begin operations by the end of 2025. [36][49] Additional Important Insights - **Regional Procurement**: The first implementation of regional collective procurement in 2025 has led to a decrease in overall bidding prices, but market share for leading companies has increased. [40] - **Smart Meter Market**: The smart meter market is transitioning, with the 20th version nearing the end of its lifecycle and the 24th version expected to improve margins for leading companies. [44] - **HVDC Technology**: The growth of HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) technology is anticipated, with significant interest from major companies like Alibaba and Tencent. [31] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments across the robotics, AIDC, industrial control, and electric power sectors as discussed in the conference call records.

Core Viewpoint - The company has disclosed accounting errors related to internal transactions, asset capitalization, and revenue recognition, leading to a non-standard audit opinion for the 2024 financial report [2][10]. Group 1: Accounting Errors - The company reported errors in internal transaction income and cost offsets, leading to understated costs and overstated inventory [3][4]. - Errors in the capitalization of rental assets were identified, where renovation costs were incorrectly classified [4][5]. - Issues in revenue recognition for IDC system integration projects were noted, primarily due to delays in collecting and processing original documents [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The adjustments for the accounting errors resulted in changes to the 2023 consolidated financial statements, including an increase in revenue from 2.37 billion to 2.43 billion and an increase in costs from 1.91 billion to 2.02 billion [6][10]. - The company’s 2024 annual report showed a revenue decline of 33.36%, with IDC business revenue decreasing by 23.51% [10][11]. Group 3: Audit Opinion - The audit firm issued a qualified opinion due to insufficient evidence to confirm the accuracy of the accounting error corrections, particularly regarding the IDC system integration revenue and inventory estimates [9][10]. - The audit procedures included evaluating internal controls, interviewing financial personnel, and reviewing relevant documentation, but sufficient evidence was not obtained [8][9]. Group 4: Client and Supplier Information - The company is required to disclose detailed information about its top ten clients and suppliers, including transaction backgrounds and performance metrics, to explain the revenue decline [10][11].