豆棕油及豆粕市场年度展望 国投期货研究院 吴小明 投资咨询号Z0015853 202601 全球大豆供需状况 PART 1 全球油料供需格局同比微松 | 7种油籽供需 | | 2020/20 | 2021/20 | 2022/20 | 2023/20 | 2024/20 | 2025/20 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 平衡表 | | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 同比 | | 同比% | | 期初库存 | 万吨 | 11305 | 11566 | 11557 | 12298 | 13607 | 14169 | 562 | 4 . | 1% | | 产量 | 万吨 | 60926 | 61069 | 63730 | 65737 | 68434 | 69315 | 881 | 1 . | 3% | | 进口 | 万吨 | 19101 | 17768 | 19805 | 20466 | 20679 | 21173 | 495 | 2 . | 4% | | 压榨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Rural Famous Action" initiated by the Ministry of Civil Affairs aims to address the issues of unclear navigation and address identification in rural areas, enhancing logistics and promoting local products by standardizing and digitalizing place names across the country by the end of 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Navigation Improvement - The initiative has led to the naming of 927,000 rural place names and the installation of over 32 million place name signs and door plaques, significantly improving navigation and address clarity for residents and visitors [1][3]. - Villagers can now use precise addresses for navigation, such as "Wanghuai Road, Chewang Village," which enhances their ability to locate homes and businesses easily [1][2]. - The establishment of a national place name information database allows for the integration of local place names into major navigation platforms, facilitating easier travel and emergency response [3][6]. Group 2: Logistics Enhancement - The standardization of place names has resolved the "last mile" delivery challenges faced by logistics companies, allowing for accurate delivery to rural households [5][6]. - In Haikou, the average daily package volume at postal service stations has increased significantly due to improved address clarity, with logistics now able to deliver directly to homes [7]. - The integration of place names into logistics systems has resulted in a 100% delivery rate in Meilan District, with the value of regional brands exceeding 1.6 billion yuan [6]. Group 3: Brand Development and E-commerce - The initiative has enabled local products to be marketed effectively by associating them with their geographical names, enhancing their visibility and sales potential [8][10]. - In Dalian, the sales of local specialties like apples have increased by 37% year-on-year, driven by the integration of place names into e-commerce platforms and live streaming sales [10][11]. - The development of rural tourism routes linked to local agricultural products has created new economic opportunities, with online sales now accounting for half of total production [11].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has released the third batch of national special and superior new agricultural products for 2025, with three products from Hezhou City, including Pinggui Eagle Mouth Peach and Pinggui Small Section Melon, successfully listed [1] - Pinggui District plans to add 10 green food certifications, 14 organic certification enterprises, and 3 selenium-rich certification enterprises by 2025, covering an area of 3,000 acres [3] - Eleven products, including Pinggui Liubao Tea, Pinggui Small Section Melon, and Pinggui Eagle Mouth Peach, have been awarded the title of "National Special and Superior Agricultural Products" [3] Group 2 - The district will incorporate the "Three Products and One Standard" initiative into the overall agricultural and rural development plan, with a budget allocation of 2.426 million yuan for certification enterprise support in 2025 [3] - The district is committed to strict adherence to the "Three Products and One Standard" certification review process, enhancing supervision and promoting the establishment of quality management systems among production entities [3][4] - Future plans include expanding the scale and coverage of the "Three Products and One Standard" initiative, strengthening brand cultivation and promotion, and improving the entire supply chain to enhance agricultural quality and efficiency [4]

（来源：人民网） 全国绿色、有机、名特优新和地理标志农产品总数达8.6万个，我国农用化肥施用量（折纯）4988万 吨，较2020年下降5%。这些数字，既是农业绿色发展的成绩单，也清晰表明绿色发展已成为农业现代 化的核心驱动力。 农产品"含绿量"持续提升，这是农业绿色转型最直观的成果体现。当下，优质食味稻、专用小麦、高油 高蛋白大豆占比逐年提升，畜禽、水产健康养殖加快推广，优质牛羊肉、水产品供给增加，绿色农产品 在整体农产品中的比重持续提高。以蔬菜为例，农业农村部按季度开展的监测中，水生类、食用菌、芸 薹属类等各类蔬菜合格率大多在99%以上，像水生类蔬菜合格率更是达到100%。这意味着消费者挑选 蔬菜时能更加安心，"吃得安全、吃得健康"不再是一句口号，而是实实在在地成为百姓餐桌的常态。 有收无收在于水，农业用水方式已从用水大户转向节水大户。数据显示，农田灌溉水有效利用系数达到 0.580，亩均实际灌溉用水量减少14立方米，平均每年农田用水总量减少36亿立方米。在山东德州2025 年引黄灌溉用水量较"十三五"年均水平减少了3.5亿立方米，但粮食产量依然保持着"亩产过吨粮、全市 总产过百亿"的好成绩。在江苏盱眙，往 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：南京玛合雅） 一、产业资讯：1、据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至1月10日，巴西大豆播种率为 98.2%，上周为98.2%，去年同期为98.8%，五年均值为98.2%；巴西大豆收割率为0.6%，上周为0.1%， 去年同期为0.3%，五年均值为1%。 | (Esses 12 estados correspondem a 96% da área cultivada) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Semeadura | | | | | | | | Semana até: | | Média 5 : | | Estado | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | anos | | | 11/Jan | 3/Jan | 10/Jan | | | Tocantins | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 99.8% | | Maranhão | 73.0% | 66.0% | 67.0% | 72.4% | | Piauí | 99.0% | 99.0% | 99.0% | 98.2% | | B ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest data and trends in the global oilseeds and oils market, including soybean, palm oil, and rapeseed. There are changes in production, inventory, and export data of major countries, which will have an impact on the market supply and demand situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025/26 Annual US Soybean Information - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 is 350 million bushels, up from 290 million bushels in December [1]. - The estimated planted area is 81.2 million acres, and the harvested area is 80.4 million acres, both slightly increased compared to December [1]. - The estimated yield per acre is 53 bushels, the same as in December [1]. - The estimated production is 4.262 billion bushels, up from 4.253 billion bushels in December [1]. - The estimated export volume is 1.575 billion bushels, down from 1.635 billion bushels in December [1]. 3.2 2025/26 Annual Global Soybean Information - Brazil's estimated soybean production in 2025/26 is 178 million tons, up from 175 million tons in December, and the estimated export volume is 114 million tons, up from 112.5 million tons in December [1]. - Argentina's estimated soybean production is 48.5 million tons, and the estimated export volume is 8.25 million tons, both unchanged from December [1]. - China's estimated soybean import volume is 112 million tons, unchanged from December [1]. - The global estimated soybean production is 425.68 million tons, up from 422.54 million tons in December, and the estimated ending inventory is 124.41 million tons, up from 122.37 million tons in December [1]. 3.3 US Soybean Inventory on December 1, 2025 - The total soybean inventory in the US on December 1, 2025, was 3.29 billion bushels, a 6% increase from 3.1 billion bushels on December 1, 2024 [1]. - The on - farm inventory was 1.576 billion bushels, a 2% increase from the previous year, and the off - farm inventory was 1.714 billion bushels, a 10% increase from the previous year [1]. - The apparent consumption of soybeans from September to November 2025 was 1.3 billion bushels, a 20% decrease from the previous year [1]. 3.4 US Soybean Export Inspection Volume - As of the week ending January 8, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1,529,707 tons, higher than the market expectation of 800,000 - 1,275,000 tons [1]. - The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 901,118 tons, accounting for 58.91% of the total [1]. - So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume is 17,934,546 tons, compared with 31,324,934 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. 3.5 Brazil's Soybean Harvest and Export - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 0.6%, better than 0.3% in the same period of the previous year [1]. - Brazil exported 645,737.53 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of January, with an average daily export volume of 107,622.92 tons, a 121% increase from the average daily export volume in January of the previous year [1]. 3.6 Malaysia's Palm Oil Situation - From January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased by 18% compared to the same period of the previous month, while the production decreased by 20.49% [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December 2025 soared to a nearly seven - year high, reaching 3.05 million tons, a 7.58% increase from the previous month [1]. - The palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% to 1.83 million tons, but it was still the highest output in December in eight years [1]. - The palm oil export in December increased by 8.52% to 1.32 million tons, reversing the decline of the previous month [1]. 3.7 Global Rapeseed Situation - The estimated global rapeseed production in 2025/26 is 95.172 million tons, an increase of 9.174 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 12.184 million tons, an increase of 2.384 million tons year - on - year [1]. - The estimated global rapeseed oil production is 35.65 million tons, an increase of 1.482 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 3.299 million tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons year - on - year [1]. - The estimated global rapeseed meal production is 50.912 million tons, an increase of 1.846 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 1.561 million tons, an increase of 0.125 million tons year - on - year [1]. - Canada's estimated rapeseed export volume in 2025/26 is 7.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.131 million tons year - on - year; the rapeseed oil export volume is 3.375 million tons, an increase of 0.035 million tons year - on - year; the rapeseed meal export volume is 5.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.199 million tons year - on - year [1]. 3.8 Spot Prices - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu fluctuated [2][3].

Group 1 - The research team from the Zunyi Municipal Committee of the Chinese Kuomintang conducted a study on accelerating the development of agricultural特色产业 and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization [3] - The team visited various locations including high-standard farmland for pea shoots, Guizhou Moutai's agricultural technology company, tea companies, and cosmetic manufacturing firms to assess the current status of特色农业, product processing, marketing development, and technological research capabilities [3] - Zunyi City has significant advantages in特色农业 such as tea, chili, ecological livestock, and traditional Chinese medicine, with a solid industrial foundation and vast development space, indicating a promising market outlook [3] Group 2 - The research team aims to produce a high-quality report with actionable recommendations to leverage特色资源优势 and support comprehensive rural revitalization [3]

Core Insights - The implementation of a rural logistics system in Tianchang City has significantly improved the delivery of goods to villages, reducing delivery time from 2 days to 1 day and lowering agricultural product transportation costs by an average of 25% [1][4] Group 1: Rural Logistics and Transportation - Tianchang City has achieved full coverage of rural road and urban-rural passenger transport integration, establishing a three-tier delivery service system for rural logistics [1] - The city has built 1 city-level distribution center, 14 town-level service stations, and 175 village-level delivery points [1] - The rural road construction has reached 309 kilometers since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a total rural road mileage exceeding 2,550 kilometers [4] Group 2: Economic Impact and Tourism Development - The rural logistics improvements have led to an increase in income for 61,300 farmers and have attracted over 500,000 tourists annually, generating more than 45 million yuan in rural tourism revenue [4] - The integration of transportation with tourism and e-commerce has created new business opportunities and enhanced the rural economy [2] - The development of themed roads, such as the "Tianchang 99 Road," has connected various tourist attractions and promoted rural tourism [2][3]

Group 1 - Chengdu is increasingly focusing on green and organic farming, with various agricultural products like truffles and carrots being highlighted for their health benefits and market potential [3][4] - The introduction of innovative farming techniques, such as the "forest cultivation" model, is enhancing the quality and yield of mushrooms, with expected production rates of 5,000 to 6,000 pounds per acre for certain varieties [3][4] - The "Tao Xin Hong" carrots from Longwang Village are achieving significant sales, with daily sales reaching 2,000 to 3,000 pounds, contributing nearly 30,000 yuan in income for farmers during the season [4] Group 2 - The production of truffles in Jintang County is set to continue until mid-March, with yields ranging from 300 to 800 kilograms per acre and market prices between 60 to 80 yuan per pound [4][5] - Jintang County is recognized as a leading global producer of truffles, with a stable quality and high demand, contributing to a significant portion of the national market [5] - The county's truffle cultivation spans nearly 30,000 acres, accounting for approximately 90% of the national trading volume, with an annual transaction value exceeding 8 billion yuan [5]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China released the January agricultural product supply and demand analysis, covering corn, soybeans, cotton, edible vegetable oil, and sugar [1] Corn - For the 2025/26 season, China's corn production data has been adjusted, with the planting area set at 44,961 thousand hectares, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year; the yield per hectare adjusted to 6,700 kg, up 1.6% year-on-year; and total production adjusted to 30,124 million tons, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year, reaching a historical high [2] - The current market for corn is active due to the traditional peak selling season, with sales progressing faster than last year and lower inventory levels among deep processing enterprises, indicating strong price support [2] Soybeans - The 2025/26 soybean production forecast aligns closely with the National Bureau of Statistics data, with minor adjustments made this month. The planting area is set at 10,255 thousand hectares, down 0.6% year-on-year; yield per hectare adjusted to 2,039 kg, up 1.9% year-on-year; and total production at 2,091 million tons, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year [3] - Domestic grain reserves are decreasing, leading to a strong market sentiment among traders, while high-protein soybean supplies are tight, prompting active procurement by processing enterprises [3] Cotton - The 2025/26 cotton production forecast has been adjusted, with the planting area set at 2,979 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year; yield per hectare adjusted to 2,229 kg, up 2.6% year-on-year; and total production adjusted to 6.64 million tons, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year [4] - The sales pace of cotton has accelerated due to pre-Spring Festival inventory replenishment by textile enterprises, with the national cotton processing rate at 94.5% as of January 8, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, and the sales rate at 55.6%, up 24.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] Edible Vegetable Oil - The 2025/26 edible vegetable oil production forecast has been increased by 50,000 tons to 3,078 million tons, primarily due to increased production of cottonseed oil [5] - The import and consumption forecasts for edible vegetable oil remain unchanged from the previous month, with favorable weather conditions in major rapeseed production areas aiding growth [5] Sugar - The 2025/26 sugar supply and demand forecast remains consistent with last month, with northern beet sugar production concluding and southern cane sugar production peaking, leading to ample market supply [6] - As of the end of December, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production reached 1.94 million tons, with a sales rate of 45.56%, down 13.76 percentage points year-on-year; Yunnan's cumulative sugar production was 390,000 tons, with a sales rate of 71.72%, down 9.98 percentage points year-on-year [6]