嘉宾： 董事长 罗总 副总经理 区总 01 主题： 蜂助手定增布局AI端侧和芯片交流 时间： 10月12日（周日）20:00 董秘 韦总 主持：曹佩 计算机首席分析师 参会密码：442996 02 主 题： 生命科学上游行业深度报告 参会密码：373505 03 主 题： 行业配置模型回顾与更新系列（十三） 时间： 10月13日（周一）21 : 00 主讲：刘晓锋 金工首席分析师 参会密码：114207 04 主题：天秦装备深度报告 时间： 10月14日（周二）17 : 00 主讲： 马浩然 军工分析师 参会密码：384300 05 主题： 有色行业周观点更新 时间：10月15日（周三）19 : 00 主讲：张文臣 有色及新材料首席分析师 时间： 10月13日（周一）16 : 00 主讲：谭紫媚 医药首席分析师 参会密码： 723044 06 主题：兴业银行中报解读及投资价值分析 时间： 10月16日（周四）14 : 00 主讲： 夏芈卬 金融行业首席分析师 参会密码：917551 07 主题： 医药行业观点及华领医药更新推荐 时间：10月16日（周四）15 : 00 主讲： 周豫 医药首席分析师 戎晓婕 医 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that despite short-term adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market, it remains in a trend of oscillating upward with a solid bottom [1] - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI technology, suggesting that while US tech giants may influence the trading rhythm of Hong Kong's AI sector, the acceleration of China's AI progress offers recovery potential for leading tech stocks in Hong Kong [2] - The report emphasizes a focus on cyclical recovery, with the market awaiting guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session and the 15th Five-Year Plan, suggesting tactical trading in cycles and consumption [2] Group 2 - The report lists a selection of "golden stocks" for October, including Alibaba, Kuaishou, Xiaopeng Motors, and others, with detailed financial metrics such as market capitalization, EPS, and PE ratios for 2026 and 2027 [2][6] - Alibaba is highlighted for its strong cloud business growth driven by AI, with significant investments in AI infrastructure expected to enhance its competitive edge and maintain high margins [9][10] - Kuaishou is recognized for its advancements in AI video generation technology, positioning it as a leading player in the domestic market [16][17] Group 3 - Xiaopeng Motors is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues of 830 billion, 1494 billion, and 2229 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside a path to profitability by 2026 [23] - The report discusses the strategic focus of Xiaopeng Motors on building a platform-based technology foundation to enhance its competitive advantage in the electric vehicle market [27] - The report anticipates that the Robotaxi business of Cao Cao Mobility will benefit from the ongoing transformation of the ride-hailing market, with projected revenues of 206.7 billion, 262.4 billion, and 323.7 billion RMB for 2025 to 2027 [30] Group 4 - Horizon Robotics is noted for its leadership in automotive intelligent driving solutions, with a significant market opportunity as the penetration of high-level autonomous driving increases [35] - The report highlights the commercial potential of the pharmaceutical company Kelun-Biotech, with ongoing clinical trials and product registrations expected to drive growth [41] - The report emphasizes the robust pipeline and financial health of Hutchison China MediTech, with expectations for revenue growth driven by successful commercialization of existing products [51][52] Group 5 - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation is positioned to benefit from regulatory changes aimed at standardizing and scaling the refining industry, with expectations for improved cash flow and dividend yield [70][74] - The report discusses the food and beverage company Guoquan's strategic expansion into rural markets, with plans to open 1,000 new stores, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [78][79]

整体视角：南向流入提速，外资流出放缓 国泰海通海外策略团队发布研报称，三季度以来，南向资金继续流入港股，Q3累计净流入3952亿港 元，较Q2流入幅度提升。行业层面上看，三季度南向主要流入港股可选消费/非银/医药(Q1-Q3均净流 入)与软件硬件(Q2净流出)。外资在港股多数细分行业占主导地位，尤其是互联网、金融及大部分消费 板块；而南向在少数行业有较强话语权，如运营商、煤炭石化、军工、半导体等，近两年南向在半导 体/泛消费/泛红利行业定价权显著提升。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 流量层面，三季度以来，南向资金继续流入港股，Q3累计净流入3952亿港元，较Q2流入幅度提升；外 资流出速率较前期放缓，尤其是稳定型外资，Q3累计净流出664亿港元，流出幅度连续三个季度减少。 存量层面，南向在港股中的持股市值占比继续突破、创下新高，港股通持股金额占比由Q2末20.7%升至 Q3末21.8%，与此同时稳定型外资占比从41.3%降至40.7%、灵活性外资占比则维持在19.1%。 行业视角：南向流向广泛，外资偏好科技 流量层面，三季度南向主要流入港股可选消费/非银/医药(Q1-Q3均净流入)与软件硬件(Q2净流出)；灵活 型 ...

华福证券 2025 年 10 月 12 日 金 融 工 程 科创板组合 9 月录得显著收益，10 月模型推荐调 低价值风格配置——策略化选股月报（2025/10） 投资要点： 多策略选股策略 金 融 工 程 定 策略在 2025 年 10 月对子策略的权重配置在质量选股策略权重占 比最高，约 35.71%，在价值股选股策略上的权重占比最小，约 15.16%。 9 月多策略选股策略绝对收益-0.38%，多策略选股策略相对中证全指超 额收益-2.95%。 极致风格高 BETA 选股策略 期 报 告 策略在 2025 年 10 月对子策略的权重配置在大盘价值策略权重占 比最高，为 50%，在小盘成长策略上的权重占比最小，为 17.29%。9 月极致风格高 BETA 策略绝对收益-3.28%，极致风格高 BETA 策略相 对中证全指超额收益低 5.77%。 "红利+"优选股票策略 2025 年 9 月，"红利+"优选股票策略绝对收益 0.83%，相对中证 全指指数超额收益-1.77%，相对红利收益指数超额收益 4.16%。策略持 仓合计选入 30 支股票，平均市值 1320.14 亿元，主要分布在银行和电 力及公共事 ...

Core Insights - A new batch of 18 key enterprises has signed agreements to establish operations in Hong Kong, including three global pharmaceutical leaders and companies in AI, autonomous driving, microelectronics, and cross-border financial services [1][2] - The total number of key enterprises attracted to Hong Kong has exceeded 100, bringing approximately HKD 600 billion in investments and creating around 22,000 jobs [1][2] Group 1: Attraction of Enterprises - The latest batch of key enterprises includes a significant proportion of overseas companies, accounting for 40%, indicating Hong Kong's enhanced "magnetic pull" for international businesses [2] - Roche, one of the world's top ten pharmaceutical companies, highlighted the favorable environment for medical innovation fostered by the Hong Kong government [2] - The presence of these enterprises aligns with Hong Kong's industrial upgrade direction, injecting new momentum into the economy [2] Group 2: Economic Impact and Future Directions - The focus of the new enterprises is on cutting-edge fields such as pharmaceuticals, AI, and cultural technology, which aligns with Hong Kong's policy direction for developing innovative industries [2] - The Hong Kong government aims to support the sustainable growth of these enterprises by fostering high-value manufacturing and promoting new industrialization [5] - Recent international rankings reaffirm Hong Kong's status as the world's freest economy and its position as a leading global financial center, reflecting its increasing competitiveness [6]

Core Viewpoint - The main factors influencing the A-share market in October are policies and external events, liquidity, and fundamentals, with historical data indicating a tendency for the market to be volatile during this month [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Performance - Since 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown an upward trend in October during years when the "Five-Year Plan" was implemented, such as in 2010, 2015, and 2020 [2][3]. - Out of the last 15 years, the index has risen in 8 instances during October [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Policies and external events are the core influencing factors; positive developments may lead to market gains, while tightening policies or negative external shocks could weaken the market [2][3]. - Liquidity conditions are also crucial; a loose liquidity environment can boost the market, as seen in 2010 with the anticipation of QE2, in 2015 with interest rate cuts, and in 2019 with Fed rate cuts [2][3]. - The performance of the third-quarter reports is expected to significantly impact the market in October, with potential structural recovery in earnings [2][3]. Group 3: October Outlook - The A-share market is likely to continue a slow bullish trend in October, supported by positive policy expectations and a potentially loose liquidity environment [3]. - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session may enhance positive policy expectations, while geopolitical tensions could remain a concern, particularly regarding U.S.-China trade relations [3]. - Economic conditions are expected to show weak recovery, with third-quarter earnings reports indicating a structural rebound in sectors like technology and cyclical industries [3]. Group 4: Sector Allocation - The technology and growth sectors are expected to outperform in October, particularly those related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," which emphasizes technological innovation and domestic demand [4]. - Historical data suggests that industries with strong earnings reports during the third-quarter disclosure period tend to perform well, with high growth expected in technology and cyclical sectors [4]. - The current Fed rate cut cycle may favor technology and certain cyclical industries, with a higher likelihood of leading performance from sectors like computing, automotive, and electronics [4]. - Recommendations include accumulating positions in sectors benefiting from policy support and improving fundamentals, such as communication, machinery, electronics, and renewable energy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The main factors influencing the A-share market in October are policies and external events, liquidity, and fundamentals, with historical data indicating a tendency for the market to be volatile during this month [2][3]. Policy and External Events - Positive policies and external events are crucial for potential A-share market gains, as seen in years like 2010, 2015, and 2020 when the Shanghai Composite Index rose in October following the implementation of the "Five-Year Plans" [2][3]. - Conversely, tightening policies or negative external shocks could lead to a weaker A-share market [2]. Liquidity - Liquidity is a significant factor affecting the A-share market in October; a loose liquidity environment may boost the market, as evidenced by events like the anticipated QE2 in 2010 and interest rate cuts by the central bank in 2015 [2][3]. - A tightening liquidity scenario could result in weaker market performance [2]. Earnings Reports - The third-quarter earnings reports are expected to have a substantial impact on the A-share market in October, with a potential structural recovery in profitability anticipated [3][5]. Current Market Outlook - The A-share market is likely to continue a slow bullish trend in October, supported by positive policy expectations and a potentially loose liquidity environment [3]. - Historical trends suggest that sectors related to technology and cyclical industries may outperform in October, particularly those aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][5]. Sector Allocation - The technology and cyclical sectors are expected to remain favored in October, with recommendations to accumulate positions in technology, core assets, and cyclical industries [4][5]. - Specific industries such as computing, media, military, and new energy are projected to show strong earnings growth, while sectors with high economic activity are likely to be concentrated in technology and cyclical industries [5].

Core Viewpoint - Despite increased market volatility, several subjective private equity institutions, including Freshwater Spring, remain optimistic about structural opportunities in the market [1] Market Dynamics - The recent market fluctuations are viewed as a healthy correction following rapid price increases in certain assets [3] - Current A-share market liquidity is primarily driven by institutional investors, with individual investors' demand for stock assets still accumulating but not fully released [3] - There has been a notable increase in interest from long-term active funds in Europe and the U.S. towards Chinese assets, although significant inflows have yet to materialize [3] - The liquidity environment is expected to remain abundant in the short term, providing a foundation for stable market operations [3] Seasonal Trends - The fourth quarter typically exhibits a defensive market trend, with undervalued sectors likely to outperform [4] - The market faces a reporting gap after the third-quarter results, making low-valuation and stable-earning sectors more attractive to investors [4] - The fourth quarter is also characterized by numerous economic work meetings, influencing market expectations for the upcoming year [4] Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are focusing on increasing allocations to high-growth and cyclical assets [5][6] - Freshwater Spring has adjusted its portfolio to include high-certainty growth companies in the electronics sector and strong fundamental pharmaceutical firms, while also maintaining positions in cyclical assets [6] - Qinghe Spring has shifted its focus towards upstream resource industries, citing the sustainability of weak dollar and supply constraints as key factors [7] - The firm is also exploring investment opportunities in cyclical companies currently at low price levels, anticipating potential profit increases as demand improves [7] Structural Opportunities - The market is expected to continue evolving in a "slow bull" manner, with ongoing structural opportunities [8] - Investment frameworks are centered around "technology + consumption," with a focus on industry and policy factors [8] - The emphasis is on technological breakthroughs and policy expectations related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," aiming to identify potential investment opportunities in resonant sectors [8]

Core Viewpoint - Despite increased market volatility, several subjective private equity firms, including Waterfall, remain optimistic about structural opportunities in the market [1] Market Correction - Waterfall believes that the current market fluctuations are a healthy correction following rapid price increases in certain assets [2] - The A-share market's incremental funds are primarily driven by institutions, with individual investors' demand for stock assets still accumulating but not fully released [2] - There has been a notable increase in interest from long-term active funds in Europe and the U.S. towards Chinese assets, although significant inflows have yet to materialize [2] - The liquidity environment is expected to remain abundant in the short term, supporting stable market operations [2] Investment Strategy - High-growth and cyclical assets are becoming key focus areas for investment [4] - Waterfall has adjusted its portfolio to include high-certainty growth companies in the electronics sector and strong fundamental pharmaceutical firms, while also maintaining positions in cyclical assets with clear safety margins [4] - Qinghequan has increased its allocation to upstream resource sectors while reducing its exposure to innovative pharmaceuticals, citing the sustainability of the weak dollar and supply constraints [4][5] Structural Opportunities - Qinghequan is exploring investment opportunities under the theme of "anti-involution," focusing on cyclical companies currently at the bottom of their cycles, which have significant potential for profit upgrades as demand improves [5] - Zhishun Investment emphasizes a "slow bull" market evolution, with ongoing structural opportunities, focusing on a dual investment framework of "technology + consumption" [5]

近日，淡水泉、清和泉、致顺投资等主观策略私募机构纷纷发布最新月报观点，强调指数上涨幅度仍属温和， 震荡属于局部资产价格过快上涨后的良性修正，而市场结构性机会层出不穷，给主观策略选股提供更大空间， 而高景气资产和顺周期资产正在成为重点配置的布局方向。 尽管市场波动震荡加剧，但是包括淡水泉在内的多家主观私募机构仍然看好后市的结构性机会。 震荡属于良性修正 头部私募机构淡水泉在最新月报中认为，市场出现了一定程度的震荡，但总体反映的是局部资产价格过快上涨 后的良性修正。从流动性结构来看，当前A股的增量资金仍由机构主导，在理财收益率下行的背景下，个人投 资者对股票资产的配置需求虽在持续累积，但尚未充分释放。海外资金对A股的参与度有所回升，不过整体仍 属低配。9月份以来，欧美主动型长线资金对中国资产的关注度在显著提升，但仍未显著流入。如果中国市场 的赚钱效应持续，仍然会有较多的潜在增量资金来源。充裕的流动性环境短期内预计不会改变，这也是市场稳 健运行的基础和支撑。 清和泉认为，四季度有日历效应。历史规律上，四季度市场往往偏防御，低估值板块表现相对占优。一是三季 报兑现后，市场面临较长的财报空窗期，而年底也是估值切换的重要 ...