Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas: The global cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the OECD lowering the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, trade frictions and inflation continue to suppress cotton consumption. The U.S. cotton harvest lags behind previous years, while Brazil's harvest is nearly complete and Pakistan's new - cotton listing has increased significantly. Given the macro - economic downturn and short - term supply increase, international cotton prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [40]. - Domestic: The domestic cotton market is approaching a seasonal supply peak, and prices face significant downward pressure around the National Day. New cotton picking has started, but farmers are waiting and watching. The futures market has led to a decline in expected purchase prices. With the expected concentrated listing and weak consumption, domestic cotton prices may face further correction pressure [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price and Spread - The weekly average price of international cotton spot increased, and the spread between domestic and international cotton prices continued to narrow. The weekly average price of China's CC Index3128B was 15,292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The spread between the Cotlook A 1% tariff converted into RMB and the CC Index3128B narrowed by 132 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand (USDA) - **Global**: The expected total global cotton production in the current year is 25.622 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 tons (0.9%); consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 184,000 tons (0.7%); imports are 9.516 million tons, an increase of 27,000 tons (0.3%); exports are 9.515 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons (0.3%); the global ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, a decrease of 168,000 tons (1.0%) [9]. - **US**: In 2025/26, the U.S. cotton planting area is 56.427 million mu, an increase of 115,000 mu; the harvested area is 44.729 million mu, an increase of 79,000 mu; the abandonment rate is 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit is expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, a slight decrease; the production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports are expected to be 2.613 million tons, with little change. The ending inventory remains at 784,000 tons [12]. - **China**: The expected production is 7.076 million tons, an increase of 218,000 tons (3.2%); consumption is expected to be 8.382 million tons, an increase of 217,000 tons (2.7%); imports are expected to be 1.132 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons (1.9%). Considering the decrease in initial supply, the ending inventory decreases by 229,000 tons to 7.396 million tons [14]. 3.3 Growth and Harvest Progress - **US**: As of September 21, the U.S. cotton boll - opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average. In Texas, the boll - opening rate was 53%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average, and the picking progress was 23%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average [18]. - **China**: As of September 25, the national new cotton picking progress was only 1.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year - on - year, still in the initial stage [40]. 3.4 Climate Conditions - **US**: The precipitation in the U.S. was relatively low. As of September 16, the drought - affected area accounted for 40.8% of the total area, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the previous week. In Texas, the drought - affected area accounted for 20.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous week [21]. - **China**: From September 30 to October 5, Xinjiang was affected by cold air, with rain, snow, and strong winds in some areas, which may have an adverse impact on cotton harvesting [22]. 3.5 Import and Inventory - **Import**: In August 2025, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons (40.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons (51.6%). From January to August 2025, the cumulative imports were 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.9% [24]. - **Inventory**: As of September 2025, China's domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 305,800 tons, at a historically low level. The industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons, at a historically high level [26][30]. 3.6 Export Sign - ups and Shipments (US) - As of September 18, 2025, the U.S. had cumulatively signed 947,000 tons of cotton for export in the 2025/26 season, accounting for 36.22% of the expected annual exports, and had shipped 220,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 23.23%. China had cumulatively signed 17,000 tons, accounting for 1.77% of the signed volume, and had shipped 2,000 tons, accounting for 11.76% of the signed volume [28]. 3.7 Downstream Market - **Yarn**: The spot price of cotton yarn decreased slightly. Downstream traders and weaving factories replenished stocks for the National Day and subsequent demand, and the sales of cotton yarn were good. Some spinning enterprises had normal holidays during the National Day, while some extended their holidays. The opening rates of yarn mills in different regions were basically stable [34]. - **Retail**: In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9668 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a month - on - month increase of 8.74% [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - In Q4 2025, the cotton market faces significant pressure, but the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The international market will remain weak in the short - term, while the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton, will face seasonal supply pressure. However, in the long - run, the prospects for both markets are more positive [1][105]. - For the international market, short - term supply pressure is high due to harvests and slow US cotton export sign - ups. But long - term, cost support and potential changes in trade policies are favorable. For the domestic market, the large expected Xinjiang cotton production in Q4 2025 will test downstream demand, and there is a risk of the price breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton, but there are also factors supporting a rebound [105][106]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Cotton Market Review - **Domestic Market**: Cotton prices first rose and then fell, shifting from trading the "tight reality" to the "loose expectation". In July, prices rose due to low commercial inventories and market sentiment. From late July to August, prices fluctuated due to hedging pressure. In September, prices declined as the expectation of increased Xinjiang cotton production grew [4]. - **International Market**: It remained weak in the low - level range of 65 - 70 cents/pound. Normal weather during the US cotton growing season and slow export sign - ups due to trade policies led to limited upward movement [5]. 2. Domestic Fundamental Analysis - **Inventory Situation**: As of the end of August, national commercial cotton inventories were 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease. Xinjiang and inland commercial inventories were at multi - year lows. However, cotton textile enterprises had relatively high industrial inventories, which could meet needs until mid - October when new cotton is expected to be available in large quantities. There were reports of inventory shortages in some inland textile enterprises and a prominent shortage of high - quality cotton [12]. - **New Cotton Yield Estimation**: Domestic institutions expect significant increases in Xinjiang and national cotton production in the 2025/2026 season. The report estimates that Xinjiang's cotton production is likely to reach around 7.5 million tons. If so, the supply of about 8.4 million tons (including import quotas) can basically cover demand. The high - yield expectation has already led to a significant decline in the futures price, and attention should be paid to the actual yield [17][18][19]. - **New Cotton Purchase Expectations**: Ginning mills are cautious about new cotton purchases, with most expecting an opening price below 6.3 yuan/kg. Cotton farmers' psychological price is around 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and their reluctance to sell has weakened. The pre - sale price of cottonseed is expected to decline to 2.1 - 2.2 yuan/kg during the peak purchase period, still higher than last year. The large pre - sale volume of Xinjiang cotton and high pre - sale basis still exist. There is a possibility of a negative feedback loop between the futures price and the seed cotton purchase price, with the purchase price potentially dropping below 6 yuan/kg, corresponding to the futures price possibly breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Import Situation**: In the 2024/2025 season, cotton imports were 1.05 million tons, a 68% year - on - year decrease.棉纱 imports were 1.41 million tons, a 15.6% year - on - year decrease. In the 2025/2026 season, the import volume of cotton and棉纱 is uncertain, depending on trade negotiations. If the current tariff level between China and the US remains, it will continue to suppress imports [29]. - **Downstream Market**: The downstream textile industry had a lackluster peak season, with low profits for spinning enterprises. Although the profit margin improved in September, it remained low overall. Orders improved seasonally in August but were still weaker than in previous years. The inventory structure of downstream棉纱 was healthy, with continued inventory reduction in September. The load of downstream textile enterprises increased seasonally but was still lower than in previous years [33][40]. - **Terminal Textile and Apparel Market**: In August, textile and apparel exports declined year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to August, cumulative exports decreased slightly. However, China's textile and apparel exports showed resilience, with exports to the Belt and Road countries and the European Union playing important roles. Exports to the US declined significantly. Domestic demand for textile and apparel showed mild growth in the first eight months of 2025, but the growth rate was still relatively low, and the recovery of domestic demand was slow [50][52][66]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The 2024/2025 season had a supply - demand gap of about 600,000 - 700,000 tons. The 2025/2026 season may be a balanced or inventory - accumulating year. The large expected production will test downstream demand in Q4 2025, but the pressure may ease later [69]. - **Future Xinjiang Cotton Production**: There is uncertainty about whether Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production will continue to increase next year. Policy adjustments may occur, and the report believes that production may slightly decline next year due to factors such as possible reduced farmer income and government regulation [73]. 3. International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Situation**: The USDA September report maintained the previous forecast for US cotton supply and demand in the 2025/2026 season, with a tight - balance situation. As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening and harvesting progress was slightly behind last year but in line with the five - year average. Hurricane threats were low, and the weather was favorable for later growth and harvest. US cotton new - crop export sign - ups were slow, and the export demand may remain weak due to trade policy uncertainties [80][84][91]. - **Global Supply - Demand**: The 2025/2026 global cotton supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. The USDA September report adjusted the supply and demand estimates, narrowing the supply - demand gap. The global market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and future focus will be on trade policies and demand prospects [95]. 4. Market Outlook - **International Market**: In Q4 2025, the international market will remain weak, with the price likely to test the 65 - cent support level. However, in the long - term, the outlook is not pessimistic, as there is cost support and potential positive changes in trade policies [105]. - **Domestic Market**: In Q4 2025, Zhengzhou cotton faces seasonal supply pressure, with a risk of breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton. But after the release of negative factors, downstream restocking may support the price. The long - term outlook is cautiously optimistic [106]. 5. Strategy - Short - and medium - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to buy at low levels below 13,000 yuan/ton, while closely monitoring macro - level and industrial drivers [108].

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The high basis in the domestic cotton market during the 2024/25 crop year was mainly due to unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories after March 2025, along with issues in the cotton futures warehouse receipt structure [1][7][20]. - If the supply of domestic cotton in the 2025/26 crop year is more abundant than in the 2024/25 crop year, the overall basis trend in 2025/26 may be weaker than in 2024/25. Special attention should be paid to the basis downward pressure during the peak new - cotton listing period from November to December, and the basis may have difficulty replicating the strong upward trend from March to August 2025 after March 2026 [2][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Analysis of the Reasons for the "High Basis" of Domestic Cotton in the 2024/25 Crop Year - The basis of domestic cotton in the 2024/25 crop year remained at a high level throughout the year, especially from April to August 2025, which was the highest in the past 10 years [5]. - The fundamental reasons for the high basis were unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories. The strong demand was due to the expansion of Xinjiang's cotton textile production capacity, relatively low cotton prices, reduced imports of cotton and cotton yarn, and increased "hoarding" demand, which led to concerns about tight inventories at the end of the 2024/25 crop year and pushed up the basis [7]. - The high basis was also related to the structure of cotton futures warehouse receipts. The increase in the proportion of inland warehouse receipts, the rise in the proportion of low - quality warehouse receipts such as those from Hami, and the high proportion of high - premium warehouse receipts all contributed to the strengthening of the basis [10]. 2. Outlook for the Domestic Cotton Basis Trend in the 2025/26 Crop Year - In terms of supply, the basis may be under pressure from November to December due to the listing of new cotton. If the new cotton is listed early and processed quickly, the basis will be under pressure; if the processing is slow, the basis may strengthen unexpectedly in October. Also, if the seed cotton price is lower than expected, the basis may first be firm and then weaken [14][15]. - Regarding demand, if the trade demand is weak at the beginning of the new - cotton listing and the domestic cotton demand in the 2025/26 crop year continues to fall short of expectations, the basis may weaken. The price is the main factor affecting demand. Lower prices can stimulate demand, and if the futures or spot prices are significantly lower than the new - cotton cost, it will support the basis [17]. - The changes in cotton commercial inventories and futures warehouse receipts also affect the basis. If the commercial inventory increases year - on - year and the month - on - month decline is slow after March 2026, the basis may weaken. The situation of futures warehouse receipts, including quantity and structure, also needs to be monitored [19]. 3. Summary - The high basis in the 2024/25 crop year was mainly due to unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories after March 2025, as well as the large - scale registration of warehouse receipts from Hami and high - index cotton, and the "arbitrage" of Xinjiang cotton to inland warehouses [20]. - If the supply in the 2025/26 crop year is more abundant, the overall basis trend may be weaker. Attention should be paid to the procurement enthusiasm of spinning mills and traders at the beginning of the listing, the profit and operating rate of spinning mills, and the commercial inventory and warehouse receipt situation [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "shockingly weak" [1][2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international policy is loose but highly uncertain, while the domestic policy aims for stable growth but the domestic demand momentum needs to be released. The inflation pressure in the US has not completely subsided, and the market bets on further interest rate cuts by the end of the year, but the risk of "recessionary interest rate cuts" should be vigilant. There are still differences in the Sino-US tariff negotiations. In May 2025, some additional tariffs were cancelled, but the US has not clearly adjusted the 20% tariff related to "fentanyl" and the 10% basic tariff, and there are still significant variables in the later stage. Domestically, the official has introduced a series of economic stabilization policies, and the market expects a possible interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut in the fourth quarter; the capital activity has increased marginally, but the domestic demand policy still needs to be strengthened [5][64]. - Globally, the cotton production in the 2025/26 season has been increased month-on-month, with China, India, and Australia being the main sources of incremental production, offsetting the production cuts in some regions. The US production has slightly increased, but there is a risk of a downward revision of the unit yield due to the drought in the main producing areas. The global ending inventory has dropped to the lowest in nearly four years, the inventory-consumption ratio has decreased, and the supply and demand have shifted to a tight balance. The trade flow has been restructured due to Sino-US frictions, and China has reduced its purchase of US cotton and shifted to other cotton-producing countries. Domestically, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has increased year-on-year, and the sufficient accumulated temperature has helped to improve the unit yield. The total production is expected to increase significantly, the harvest time is advanced, the pre-sale volume of new cotton has increased significantly, and the hedging position has moved forward, suppressing the short-term supply elasticity. The risk preference of ginning factories has dropped to a low level due to continuous losses, the effective production capacity has been reduced, the shortage pattern of seed cotton has reversed, and at the same time, the port and industrial and commercial inventories are running at a low level, the import volume has shrunk, and the domestic supply is more dependent on new cotton. There is a game between cotton farmers and ginning factories regarding the opening price [5][68]. - Global consumption has been slightly adjusted upward but shows significant differentiation. China's "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has driven consumption growth, while countries such as Turkey and Pakistan have dragged down the global demand recovery due to weak textile exports. The import of textiles and clothing in Europe and the US has improved marginally, but the inventories of wholesalers are at a high level and the willingness to replenish stocks is weak. The orders of processing countries in Southeast Asia are mainly short-term orders, and there is a shortage of long-term orders. Domestically, the characteristics of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season are not significant. Although the operating rate of textile enterprises has rebounded, it is still lower than the same period in previous years. The order increment is limited and mainly consists of small and short-term orders. The inventories of yarn, grey cloth, and textile enterprise raw materials have been continuously reduced but are still at a high level in the same period. Textile enterprises have a low willingness to actively stock up due to profit losses (cash flow losses for inland enterprises and small profits for Xinjiang enterprises). Exports show the characteristic of "trading volume for price", and the proportion of exports to emerging markets has increased to offset the decline in demand from Europe and the US [5][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the third quarter, the Zhengzhou cotton futures generally showed a volatile trend of "rising first and then falling". In July, the domestic planting area increased in the new year, and the weather conditions were generally favorable for cotton growth. The market was optimistic about the later production, but the old crop inventory was low, and at the same time, the downstream production capacity was excessive. The old crop basis was running at a high level, which supported the Zhengzhou cotton price. The Zhengzhou cotton ran strongly to 14,200 - 14,300 yuan/ton. For US cotton, although some producing areas encountered certain weather problems, the overall impact was limited, and the market's expectation of US cotton production was still relatively stable. The price fluctuated between 67 - 68 cents/pound [6]. - In August, as the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere entered the critical growth stage, the impact of weather factors on the market became more significant. The weather in the Xinjiang production area in China was good, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of Xinjiang cotton increased. At the same time, the near-month Zhengzhou cotton continued to reduce its positions and decline, reflecting that the real willingness of long - term funds to take delivery was relatively low. In the US, continuous drought weather occurred in some main cotton - producing areas, resulting in a decrease in the good - quality rate of US cotton. However, due to market concerns that the Sino - US tariff negotiations would fall short of expectations, leading to continued sluggish exports of new crops, the US cotton price still maintained a volatile and weak operation [6]. - In September, as the new cotton was approaching the market, the game among all parties in the market intensified. At the macro level, the domestic introduced a series of economic stabilization policies, which boosted the sentiment of the commodity market. Driven by the positive market sentiment, the Zhengzhou cotton rushed up to near the previous high again, but due to the gradual listing of new cotton and the less - than - expected recovery of orders from downstream textile enterprises, the Zhengzhou cotton fell again. At the end of the month, the price of the main contract closed at 13,600 - 13,700 yuan/ton. For US cotton, as the new cotton began to be harvested one after another, the market's expectation of production gradually became clear. Although there was some production reduction due to previous weather problems, the demand side was still weak. The US cotton price fluctuated and fell after rushing up, and the price of the main contract closed at around 69 cents/pound at the end of the month [7]. 2. International Cotton Market 2.1 Global Trade Flow Reconstruction - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by more than 230,000 tons month - on - month to 25.62 million tons. The main sources of incremental production were China, India, and Australia. The global cotton consumption increased by 180,000 tons month - on - month to 25.87 million tons, mainly driven by the recovery of consumption in China. The global cotton trade volume increased by 20,000 tons month - on - month. India and Australia were the main sources of export increment, and Vietnam and Turkey were the main sources of import increment. The global cotton trade generally maintained an expanding trend, but the Sino - US trade friction led to the gradual reconstruction of the global trade flow [13]. - Affected by the reduction of the initial inventory, the global cotton ending inventory decreased by nearly 170,000 tons month - on - month to 15.92 million tons, the lowest level in nearly four years. The global cotton inventory - consumption ratio dropped to 45%, down 1 percentage point month - on - month and 0.7 percentage points year - on - year, indicating that the global cotton "de - stocking" process continued, and the supply - demand pattern gradually switched from "loose" to "tight balance" [14]. 2.2 United States: Drought in Producing Areas and Obstructed Exports - In terms of new crop production, the USDA September supply - demand report showed that the estimated unit yield of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 861 pounds/acre, down 1 pound/acre month - on - month, but the estimated harvest area was 7.37 million acres, up 10,000 acres month - on - month, resulting in a slight increase in the total production to 2.88 million tons, up 2,000 tons month - on - month. The adjustment of the unit yield was due to the continuous expansion of the drought area in the main US cotton - producing areas. As of September 16, 2025, about 41% of the US cotton - producing areas were affected by drought. As of September 22, 2025, the overall good - quality rate of US cotton plants was 52%, down 2 percentage points from the previous week [16][17]. - In terms of exports, from September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 18,500 tons, down 54% from the previous week and the average level of the previous four weeks. The weekly export shipment volume was 31,100 tons, up 14% from the previous week and 6% from the average level of the previous four weeks. China continued to be absent from the new - season US cotton procurement. As of the week of September 18, 2025, the total sales progress of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 7.7%, indicating that US cotton faced difficulties in the international market and its competitiveness needed to be improved [18]. - In terms of tariff negotiations, in May 2025, China and the US agreed to cancel the additional 91% tariffs imposed after April 2, but the US still had uncertainties in tariff policies. The market expected that the possibility of reducing the 10% (basic reciprocal tariff) was low; the 20% fentanyl tariff was expected to be reduced, but the reduction range was not clear; the reduction range of the 24% additional reciprocal tariff also depended on the negotiation results of both sides [19]. 2.3 Brazil: Both Supply and Sales Increase - For the old crop, in the 2024/25 season, the cotton planting area in Brazil continued to expand, with the national cotton planting area reaching about 2.09 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 155,000 hectares (+7.3%). The average unit yield was 1,887 kg/hectare (-0.9%), equivalent to 125.8 kg/mu. Driven by the large increase in area, the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season reached 3.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 233,000 tons (+6.3%), setting a new historical record [37]. - For the new crop, it is predicted that the cotton planting area in Brazil will be 2.14 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and the output is expected to be 3.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The average unit yield is 1,849 kg/hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The main risk to the new - crop unit yield comes from the uncertainty of climate conditions. In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's total cotton exports reached 2.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, making it the world's largest cotton exporter again. As of mid - September 2025, the pre - sale progress of Brazil's 2025/26 season cotton had reached 26% [40]. 2.4 India: Production Increases and Demand Stabilizes - In terms of production, the USDA latest report estimated that the cotton production in India in the 2025/26 season would be 4.16 million bales, with a planting area of 11.2 million hectares and a unit yield of 372 kg/hectare. The CAI predicted that the new - crop unit yield would increase by about 10% [42]. - In terms of imports, as of July 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume of India in the 2024/25 season (2024.8 - 2025.7) was 604,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 284.5%, at a historical high. The CAI latest supply - demand data adjusted the cotton import volume of India in the 2024/25 season to 3.9 million bales [42][43]. - In terms of exports, the USDA September report showed that the cotton export of India in the 2024/25 season decreased by 40,000 tons month - on - month to 280,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. The CAI estimated that the export in the 2024/25 season would be 1.8 million bales, lower than 2.836 million bales in the 2023/24 season. The export destinations were still concentrated in Southeast Asia, but the shares of major countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and China all declined significantly [43]. - In terms of domestic consumption, the CAI estimated that as of the end of August 2025, the domestic cotton consumption in India in the 2024/25 season was 5.34 million tons, basically the same month - on - month and year - on - year [43]. 2.5 Southeast Asia: Total Volume Increases Steadily and Structure Differs - Southeast Asia has become the core destination for the transfer of global cotton spinning production capacity. Affected by the 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian goods, a large number of Indian cotton product orders have been transferred to Southeast Asia. Vietnam, Bangladesh and other countries' yarn mills' cotton consumption demand has increased significantly. Vietnam has an advantage in tariff competition in the European and American markets and has become the preferred destination for export - oriented orders [45]. - Southeast Asia itself lacks cotton production and depends entirely on imports for raw materials. In the 2025/26 season, the cotton planting area in Pakistan is expected to be 1.85 million hectares, a decrease of 7.5% from the previous year. The output is predicted to be adjusted down to 1.05 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [46][47]. 3. Domestic Cotton Market 3.1 Supply: High Pressure from New Crops - For the old crop inventory, as of August 31, 2025, the total national social cotton inventory was 2.37 million tons, including 890,000 tons of industrial inventory and 1.48 million tons of commercial inventory, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% and 14.0% respectively, significantly lower than 3 million tons in the same period in 2024. After entering September, the pace of old - crop inventory depletion slowed down slightly but remained at a low level. Spot transactions were dull, and textile enterprises mainly made rigid purchases [49]. - For the new crop output, in terms of area, according to the data of the National Cotton Market Monitoring System in July 2025, the national actual cotton sown area was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; among them, the actual sown area in the Xinjiang cotton area was 43.58 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In terms of unit yield, the comprehensive climate from sowing to boll - opening in the Xinjiang cotton area was suitable. The China Cotton Association data showed that the estimated unit yield of Xinjiang cotton in 2025 was 169 kg/mu, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. Market institutions estimated that the output range was between 7.08 - 7.7 million tons [49][50]. - In terms of imports, since 2025, the domestic cotton import volume has decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 513,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. It may increase slightly from September to December due to the implementation of processing trade quotas, but it will still be relatively stable throughout the year [50]. 3.2 Demand: High and Stable in Xinjiang, Differentiated in Inland Areas - The operating rate of domestic yarn mills shows a pattern of "high and stable in Xinjiang, differentiated in inland areas". The operating rate of Xinjiang yarn mills is significantly better than that of inland areas. Since 2025, the operating rate of large - scale yarn mills in Xinjiang has been stable in the range of 80% - 90%. From the raw material end, the expected local cotton output in Xinjiang is sufficient, and yarn mills can purchase nearby, which not only has a stable supply but also saves long - distance transportation costs. From the industrial environment, in recent years, Xinjiang has continuously increased its support for the textile industry, and the policy dividends have attracted a large amount of investment [55]. - The demand for cotton in inland yarn mills shows a differentiated pattern of "stable for leading enterprises, sluggish for small and medium - sized enterprises", and the overall demand is weaker than that in Xinjiang. Large - scale inland yarn mills have relatively stable demand for cotton procurement, while small and medium - sized yarn mills face multiple operating pressures. On the one hand, the terminal consumer market demand is weak, and it is difficult to obtain orders, and most of them are small and short - term orders. On the other hand, the costs of raw material procurement, labor, transportation, etc. continue to rise, and the profit space of enterprises is compressed. Some enterprises have tight cash flow, and the operating rate can only be maintained at 50% - 60%, and there are even intermittent shutdown situations [56][57].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The expectation of a strong market in September was disappointed. Cotton prices continued to decline this week, with Zhengzhou cotton dropping significantly. The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing the hedging pressure. The main contract 01 is expected to be weak in the short - term. Considering the upcoming National Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce profitable short positions to avoid risks [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption in September [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The cotton market continued its downward trend this week. The expected strong market in September did not materialize. Xinjiang's cotton harvest is promising. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.22 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton year in terms of production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC September report predicts a production and consumption of 25.5 million tons each; the USDA September report predicts a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, while cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is almost half over, but the market is quiet. The textile and clothing export data in August was not ideal. With the new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main contract 01 is expected to be weak in the short - term. Considering the National Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce profitable short positions to avoid risks [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast**: In the 2025/26 cotton year, the total global production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 cotton year, global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year. The price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 2025/26 cotton year, production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and the ending inventory is 822,000 tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 and 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 and 100 cents per pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content related to position data is provided in the report.

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The international cotton market is affected by tariff games, demand concerns, and new cotton harvest pressure, leading to a weakening trend in cotton prices. The poor export data from USDA also contributes to the weak performance [8]. - The domestic cotton market has low downstream textile enterprise operating rates, slow yarn inventory digestion, and weak demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. New flower listings restrict price drops, but strong basis limits further decline [8]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - side approach on rallies, but stay on the sidelines before the National Day. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Summary by Directory Market Overview Price Situation - Futures and spot cotton prices, as well as related price indices, are under downward pressure. The NYBOT 2 -号 cotton futures closed at 66.27 (down 0.05% week - on - week), the international cotton index M declined by 0.89% to 73.83, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract price dropped 2.30% to 13,405 [5]. - Cotton import profits at the spot and futures levels are shrinking, while the loss in yarn imports is narrowing. The cotton basis strengthened this week [5]. Supply - Demand Factors - Globally, according to the USDA September report, cotton production is expected to increase by 0.91% to 25.6542 million tons, and inventory is expected to decrease by 1.04% to 15.9445 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio dropped to 61.55% [7]. - In the domestic market, production is expected to increase slightly by 3.17% to 7.085 million tons. Commercial inventory decreased by 32.34% to 1.4817 million tons, and imports increased by 40% to 70,000 tons. Textile exports decreased by 0.85% [7]. Spot Market Price and Spread - Spot cotton and yarn prices are in a high - level volatile and slow - decline state, with imported cotton prices at a low level. Cotton import profits remain relatively large [13][22]. - The basis of cotton and yarn showed a rebound this week [19]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - The USDA September report shows an increase in global cotton production and a decrease in inventory. US upland cotton exports decreased week - on - week [26][29]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase according to the September reports of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and USDA. Commercial inventory is in a destocking state, and port inventory continues to decline [33][37]. - Cotton imports rebounded month - on - month, but overall imports weakened. Textile enterprise operating rates are stable, yarn inventory is slowly decreasing, and cotton raw material inventory is declining. Cotton yarn imports did not increase significantly, and textile exports are not bad [40][42][45]. Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index rebounded, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate slowed down [50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, commodities generally declined, and Zhengzhou cotton started to follow the logic of increased production. As the time for a large amount of new cotton to be listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on cotton prices is gradually weakening. Coupled with the downstream peak season falling short of expectations, Zhengzhou cotton has significantly declined this week [4]. - Recently, the operating loads of spinning mills and fabric mills have remained stable, and the finished - product inventories have slightly decreased. However, the marginal improvement in downstream demand is not obvious, and the peak season is under - performing. Domestic cotton production is increasing, and supply pressure is emerging. There is insufficient upward driving force for cotton prices, which may run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 yuan/ton. With holidays approaching and a large amount of seed cotton about to be listed, cautious operation is recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Old - crop Commercial Inventory - As of mid - September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.176 million tons, a decrease of 306,000 tons compared to the end of August. Among them, the inventory in Xinjiang was 460,000 tons, and the inventory in the inland was 430,000 tons. It is roughly estimated that by the end of September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory may drop to about 900,000 - 1 million tons, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. However, new cotton will be concentratedly listed in October, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory will start to accumulate. Even if the commercial inventory in September is low, it will not substantially affect the cotton use of textile enterprises. As the time for new cotton to be concentratedly listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on near - month cotton prices is gradually weakening [5]. 2. Downstream Operating Load and Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the operating load indexes of downstream spinning mills and fabric mills were 50.3 and 52.5 respectively, remaining basically stable since the middle and late ten - day period. Their finished - product inventories were 25.8 days and 29 days respectively, continuing to reduce inventory, but the inventory reduction speed has slowed down compared to the previous period. Compared with the same period in previous years, the operating load index of spinning mills has risen slowly and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years. The growth rate of the operating load index of fabric mills has slowed down month - on - month and is currently equivalent to that of last year. The inventory reduction speed of finished products is the same as that of last year, but the absolute position is at the highest level in the same period in the past three years [6]. 3. US Cotton Export Sales - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease month - on - month, a 53% decrease compared to the four - week average, and a 19% decrease year - on - year. Among them, India signed 6,200 tons, and Turkey signed 5,100 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 31,100 tons, a 14% increase month - on - month, a 6% increase compared to the four - week average, and a 6% increase year - on - year. Among them, Vietnam shipped 9,500 tons, India 4,800 tons, and China 1,600 tons. The weekly export signing volume has declined again, with the overall signing performance being poor, and the progress is 16% slower than the five - year average, at the lowest level in the past five years. As of the week ending September 18, China had signed a total of 17,000 tons of US cotton for this year [6]. 4. Price Indexes and Price Changes - **Cotton and Yarn Futures and Spot Prices**: As of Thursday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou yarn main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton [34][35]. - **Imported Cotton and Yarn Prices**: From September 18 to September 25, the prices of imported cotton and yarn decreased. For example, the price of Indian C32S imported yarn decreased from 21,330 yuan/ton to 21,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton [10]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Differences**: As of Thursday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port delivery price index under the sliding - scale duty was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the price difference with the imported cotton port delivery price under the 1% tariff was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port delivery price was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton [37]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: As of Thursday this week, on the futures market, the spread between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 6,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of 250 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 1,675 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude increased by 105 yuan/ton week - on - week [39]. 5. Warehouse Receipts - As of Thursday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 0 sheets [45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main cotton contract 01 was under pressure at 14,000, oscillated downward, and hit a new short - term low. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is sluggish. With new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main 01 contract faces significant resistance around 14,000 above, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include reduced previous China - US additional tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year, along with enhanced expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. Negative factors involve ongoing trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Previous Day Review (Weekly Review) - The main cotton contract 01 was under pressure at 14,000, oscillated downward, and hit a new short - term low. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.22 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to multiple reports, different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and ending inventory. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a 5% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, while cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, an 18.18% year - on - year increase [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is performing sluggishly. The textile and clothing export data in August was not ideal. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing the hedging pressure. The main 01 contract has significant resistance around 14,000 above, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive factors: Reduced previous China - US additional tariffs, lower commercial inventory year - on - year, and enhanced expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA's global cotton production forecast for 2025/26 is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. ICAC's 2025/26 global production forecast is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 17.1 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 production forecast is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [5][12][14][15]. 3.5 Position Data No position data is presented in the provided report.

Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton Futures Weekly Review - Date: September 20, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Zijian - Contact: 17803978037 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03087965 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0019551 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Internationally, the Fed's 25bp rate cut met market expectations. The 2025/26 global cotton market will have a 250,000 - ton supply - demand gap. The supply in the international cotton market is tightening, driving cotton prices to remain strong [4]. - Domestically, the domestic cotton market is in the critical period of new cotton harvesting, with the price center moving down. New cotton listing pressure is digesting the support effect of reduced old - cotton inventory, and domestic cotton prices will face seasonal downward pressure in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 International Market - **Supply - demand situation**: The 2025/26 global cotton market will have a 250,000 - ton supply - demand gap (production of 25.62 million tons/consumption of 25.87 million tons), with production decreasing by 340,000 tons year - on - year and consumption decreasing by 70,000 tons year - on - year. Brazil's cotton harvesting is over 60% and processing is 20%. US new cotton boll opening rate is 40%, 12 percentage points faster week - on - week but 4 percentage points lower than last year, and the picking progress is 8%, 1 percentage point higher than last year. In early September, US cotton export contracts decreased by 26,200 tons to 29,700 tons, and shipments decreased by 5,300 tons to 30,800 tons. Uzbekistan plans to boost the cotton textile industry through industrial subsidy policies [4]. - **US cotton data**: In September 2025, the US cotton planting area was 56.427 million mu, up 115,000 mu month - on - month; the harvest area was 44.729 million mu, up 79,000 mu month - on - month; the abandonment rate was 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit was expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, slightly decreasing month - on - month; the production was expected to be 2.879 million tons, up 2,000 tons month - on - month. Consumption was expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports were expected to be 2.613 million tons, with no significant changes. The ending inventory remained at 784,000 tons [14]. - **US cotton growth progress**: As of September 14, the US cotton boll opening rate was 50%, 3 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 9%, 1 percentage point behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. In the main producing area of Texas, the boll opening rate was 46%, the same as last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average; the picking progress was 21%, the same as last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the five - year average [16]. - **US drought situation**: As of September 9, the area of drought - affected regions in the US accounted for 35.9%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous week. About 32% of cotton - planting areas in the US were affected by drought, 2 percentage points higher than the previous week. In Texas, about 7% of cotton - planting areas were affected by drought, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week [19]. - **US cotton export**: As of September 11, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed net export contracts for 925,000 tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 35.40% of the annual expected exports, and had cumulatively shipped 188,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 20.27%. China had cumulatively signed contracts to import 17,000 tons of US cotton, accounting for 1.81% of the signed US cotton contracts, and had cumulatively shipped 363 tons, accounting for 0.19% of the total US cotton shipments and 2.17% of China's signed contracts [28]. 3.2 Domestic Market - **Supply situation**: The domestic cotton market is in the new cotton harvesting period. Xinjiang and other main producing areas' new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and mechanical harvesting is expected to start next week. Mainstream institutions predict that the domestic cotton production in 2025 will exceed 7 million tons. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than last year but 0.1 percentage points lower than the four - year average. The initial inventory decreased by 110,000 tons to 6.13 million tons. Due to the increase in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and a slight increase in yield per unit, the national total production was increased by 520,000 tons to 7.42 million tons this month. The annual import volume remained at 1.4 million tons [5][26]. - **Demand situation**: The downstream demand is under pressure. The effect of textile industry's rush - to - export has faded, and overseas orders have shrunk. In August, textile and clothing exports were 26.5 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. From January to August, cumulative exports were 197.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The new - year textile production capacity in Xinjiang will increase steadily, and the overall textile cotton demand will remain high. The annual textile cotton consumption expectation was increased by 120,000 tons to 8.02 million tons this month, and other consumption and exports remained at 380,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively [5][26]. - **Market structure**: The old - cotton inventory is continuously consumed, supporting high spot prices, but textile enterprises' purchasing willingness is low, resulting in a situation of high prices but few transactions in the spot market [5]. - **Spinning enterprises situation**: Small and medium - sized spinning enterprises maintain a low operating rate, and the market demand is difficult to support the recovery of the operating rate. Large and medium - sized spinning enterprises with stable customer groups have relatively stable orders and a high operating rate, but yarn prices are difficult to rise, and enterprises have difficulty in making profits, mainly selling at a loss. The operating rates of spinning mills in various regions are basically stable. Large spinning mills in Xinjiang operate at about 90%, large enterprises in Henan operate at an average of 60% - 70%, and large spinning mills in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Anhui along the Yangtze River operate at an average of 60% - 70% [30]. - **Commercial inventory**: As of August 2025, China's domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 338,500 tons, and it was at a historically low level seasonally [32]. 3.3 USDA Data - **Global cotton supply - demand forecast**: In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production increased month - on - month, consumption increased month - on - month, and import and export trade volumes both increased slightly. Due to the decrease in initial inventory, the ending inventory decreased again this year. In the 2024/25 supply - demand forecast, global cotton production and consumption increased, and the ending inventory decreased again because the increase in consumption was greater than that in production [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, with the upcoming seed - cotton purchase, the expected purchase price is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The Zhengzhou cotton futures face significant hedging pressure above 14,000 yuan/ton, while there is insufficient motivation for hedging below 13,000 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" in consumption is lackluster, and the downstream profits are poor, so the cotton price is expected to turn weak. [53] - Internationally, the cotton price has risen and then fallen. The impact of the US dollar interest - rate cut is not positive. However, the expected 3 interest - rate cuts in the US in 2025 by mainstream institutions may boost the cotton market later. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report has little impact on the market. The US cotton export data has improved, and the consumption provides some support, so the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou cotton futures weakened this week with a weekly decline of 1.01%, while ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 0.03% [11] - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 62 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 70 yuan/ton [16] - **Cotton Imports**: In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons [21] - **Cotton Inventory**: At the end of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 338,500 tons compared with the first half of August [25] - **Downstream Inventory**: In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 4.11 days [30] - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S and C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S increased by 60 yuan/ton [35] - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 567, with 4438 warehouse receipts and 12 valid forecasts, totaling 4450 [41] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of September 11, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 186,100 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 19,000 bales [44] - **US Weather**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the US is 34.2%, with different drought levels covering different percentages of the country [50] 3.2后市展望 - Domestic cotton is expected to turn weak, while international cotton is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with attention to be paid to macro - level changes [53]