Economic Overview - The economy is showing moderate recovery at the beginning of the year, supported by resilient domestic demand and improvements in external demand and production[1] - High-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption is boosted by trade-in subsidies, while service consumption has weakened marginally post-New Year[3] Investment Insights - Special bond issuance has been advanced, potentially stabilizing infrastructure investment in Q1, although the real estate sector remains weak[3] - In the first two weeks of January, special bonds worth CNY 110.2 billion were issued, compared to zero in the same period last year, indicating a shift in issuance pace[7] Trade and Production - External trade conditions are improving, with both export volume and price rising; port operation data shows a year-on-year increase in most metrics[7] - Production is generally recovering, with operating rates in the steel, petrochemical, and chlor-alkali sectors rising[7] Pricing Trends - Consumer prices are weak, with the iCPI index decreasing by 0.53% month-on-month; however, industrial prices are mostly rising, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate sectors[7] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged by 74.5% year-on-year due to tight supply and demand from emerging industries[10] Liquidity and Interest Rates - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 rising by 6.3 basis points and DR007 by 4.4 basis points compared to the previous week[8] - The 10-year government bond yield increased by 3.1 basis points to 1.88%, while the one-year yield decreased by 4.9 basis points to 1.28%[8] Risks - There are uncertainties regarding trade conditions and the potential for domestic demand recovery to fall short of expectations[12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of PVC is weak. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, and the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts will be further relaxed. The supply of domestic PVC is abundant, the downstream starts are generally flat, the inventory is increasing, and the cost - side profit is still low year - on - year. The supply - demand of caustic soda is also weak, with inventory accumulation in Shandong and Jiangsu, high overall supply - side start, and general downstream receiving sentiment [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4940 yuan/ton (+43), the East China basis is - 320 yuan/ton (- 43), and the South China basis is - 310 yuan/ton (- 43). - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4620 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4630 yuan/ton (+0). - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+25), the calcium carbide profit is - 85 yuan/ton (+25), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 634 yuan/ton (+80), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 192 yuan/ton (+87), and the PVC export profit is - 18.2 US dollars/ton (+3.8). - Inventory and start - up: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.8 tons (+1.9), the social inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1), the calcium carbide method start - up rate is 80.23% (+2.00%), the ethylene method start - up rate is 75.69% (+0.41%), and the overall start - up rate is 78.85% (+1.51%). - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1]. Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC will be cancelled from April 1st, and there may be a situation of rushing to export. The export orders still have resilience, which is beneficial to the contracts before April. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, the downstream start is generally flat, and there is an expectation of further decline in the future. The inventory is increasing slightly and is at a high level year - on - year. The cost - side profit is still low year - on - year, and the pressure of hedging on the disk still exists. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, and the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts will be further relaxed [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long V03 - 05 at low prices - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2180 yuan/ton (- 44), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 30 yuan/ton (+44). - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1080 yuan/ton (+0). - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1125 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 557.8 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 239.20 yuan/ton (- 35.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 554.50 yuan/ton (- 50.00). - Inventory and start - up: The factory inventory of liquid caustic soda is 49.51 tons (+0.94), the factory inventory of flake caustic soda is 3.08 tons (+0.06), and the start - up rate of caustic soda is 86.80% (+0.40%). - Downstream start - up: The start - up rate of alumina is 85.74% (+1.07%), the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.09% (- 0.72%), and the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+3.38%) [1][2]. Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline, and is weak due to the influence of low - price warehouse receipts. The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the disk has oscillated and corrected. The draft for soliciting opinions on differential electricity prices in Shaanxi has raised the cost expectation, but the impact is small. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, with inventory accumulation in Shandong and Jiangsu. The overall supply - side start is at a high level, the demand - side receiving sentiment is general, and the export orders continue to be sluggish [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish - Inter - delivery: Go short SH03 - 05 at high prices - Inter - commodity: None [4][5]

年重要化工品景气跟踪——pvc、烧碱 20260112 摘要 液氯因剧毒受严格管控，多为即产即销，价格波动大，曾出现负补贴。 近期价格在 150 至 250 元/吨之间，市场表现受宏观因素影响显著。 烧碱主要需求来自氧化铝行业，占比最高，其余为印染、化纤等分散需 求。2026 年预计新增产能释放，叠加氧化镁替代烧碱趋势，供需格局 偏向过剩，出口受阻。 PVC 需求与房地产关联紧密，占比超 40%。2025 年 PVC 市场总体偏 弱，价格持续下跌。光伏商品出口退税取消对 PVC 出口影响重大，可能 加速行业产能出清。 PVC 市场受宏观因素影响大，即使基本面疲软，仍有上涨空间。低估值 状态下，宏观利好易引发盘面反弹，但需警惕不合理高价后的下跌风险。 2025 年上半年氧化铝市场受大规模投产、厂家降负荷及出口担忧等因 素影响，需求前置，推动行情上涨，但需求兑现后市场下跌。 烧碱价格受液氯价格、投机需求、出口及反内卷政策等多重因素影响， 波动剧烈。2025 年新增产能释放，供应充足，需求端表现疲软。 头部化工企业如新疆企业在电价方面具有显著成本优势，出口退税取消 后，小厂面临更大压力，行业或加速产能出清，头部企业 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent "anti-involution" policy signals in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, indicating a gradual cancellation of export tax rebates and efforts to further regulate industry competition, which may pressure short-term profitability but improve the supply-demand landscape in the medium term, benefiting leading companies with technological barriers, cost advantages, and overseas channels [1] Group 2 - Recent high-frequency data shows that automotive consumption is boosted by trade-in subsidies, while service consumption has weakened marginally after the New Year holiday [1] - Investment is expected to stabilize in the first quarter due to the early issuance of special bonds, although the real estate sector remains weak, and physical indicators in the building materials chain are seasonally declining [1] - Foreign trade is showing improved conditions, with both export volume and price on the rise [1] - Overall production is recovering, with increased operating rates in the steel, petrochemical, and chlor-alkali industries [1] - Consumer prices are weak, while industrial product prices are generally rebounding, with continuous price increases in the non-ferrous chain and lithium carbonate [1] - In terms of liquidity, funding rates have slightly increased, and the US dollar has appreciated due to market risk aversion triggered by geopolitical events, leading to a slight depreciation of the RMB [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the caustic soda market is "oscillating", with short - term trading strategies of no arbitrage and no unilateral trading [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are weakening while futures are oscillating strongly. The short - term market lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected to mainly oscillate. Multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, profit, and valuation have different impacts on the market [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.3 tons to 850,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda was 86.8%, a 0.4% week - on - week increase. Next week, the load of some regional devices may be slightly adjusted, and the focus is on the resumption of maintenance of chlor - alkali equipment in Zhejiang [3] - **Demand**: Alumina start - up declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 88.43%, a 3.01% increase from last week. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 60.09%, a 0.72% decrease from the previous period [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory situation is bearish. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 - ton and above was 495,200 tons (wet tons), a 1.96% week - on - week increase and a 76.03% year - on - year increase. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 28.22%, a 0.69% week - on - week decrease. The storage capacity ratios in North China, Central China, and Southwest China increased week - on - week, while those in the Northwest, East China, Northeast, and South China regions decreased [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 67, and the futures price is at a premium [3] - **Profit**: The profit situation is bearish. During the current week, the cost of raw materials and auxiliary materials was stable, the energy cost decreased, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The price of caustic soda declined, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was - 57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease [3] - **Valuation**: The valuation situation is bullish. The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract has a slight premium [3] - **Macro - policy**: There is currently no relevant macro - policy [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - This week, the Shandong spot market was weak, while the futures market oscillated strongly. Affected by the anti - involution sentiment, the futures price rebounded slightly. On the spot side, the price of liquid chlorine was higher than that in the first half of the year, and it first fell and then rose this week, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. In the short term, factories have not reduced their loads. The price of 32% caustic soda declined to varying degrees, and the high - concentration caustic soda has not stabilized. Downstream demand is weak, and the overall performance of the Shandong market is still poor. The expected price cuts for alumina purchases in Shanxi and Henan have been realized, the supply side has not reduced its load, and the spot supply pressure is high [6] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices have risen [34] - **Upstream Production**: The start - up rate remained stable at a high level, and inventory was destocked [36] - **Main Producing Area Production**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [39] - **Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has declined [40] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina has declined, and the non - aluminum price is weak [43] - **Alumina**: The alumina supply - demand balance has been restored, and inventory has increased. The port bauxite inventory has increased. Alumina profit is poor, but there has been no significant production cut. Bauxite has flowed into the domestic market, supply is in surplus, and the factory's bauxite inventory has increased significantly [55][61] - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum start - up remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum has entered a seasonal off - season, and start - up has begun to decline. In the printing and dyeing industry, affected by weak demand, large - scale dyeing factories mainly execute orders from regular customers, while small - and medium - scale dyeing factories rely on scattered small orders. The overall market start - up is weak, and the short - term market recovery is weak [62][63] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The start - up rate has rebounded [70]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the post - holiday caustic soda futures market fluctuated greatly, and the spot market price was generally weak. Supply increased slightly, demand lacked substantial improvement, and the price was expected to remain stable with a weakening trend [3]. - **PVC**: The domestic PVC market continued to be strong after the holiday, but the fundamentals were weak. With expected increase in domestic production and weakening demand, along with the cancellation of export tax rebates, the short - term pessimistic sentiment might drag down the PVC trend [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda decreased in most regions, except in Inner Mongolia. The market was affected by macro factors, and the downstream and traders' enthusiasm for purchasing was average [3]. - **Supply**: The industry's operating rate increased slightly this week, and the inventory of caustic soda increased. The national weighted average operating rate was 88.91%, up 0.39 percentage points from last week. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased [21][27]. - **Demand**: The demand from the main downstream industries remained stable at the rigid - demand level. Some areas had an expected decline in alumina prices, which put pressure on caustic soda prices [3]. - **Device Dynamics**: This week, there were fewer maintenance enterprises, and the total maintenance loss was 1.42 tons. Hubei Xingrui planned semi - load maintenance from January 15th to February 5th [28][30]. - **Alumina**: The planned production capacity from the end of 2024 to 2025 was 12.3 million tons, with an estimated annual output of over 88 million tons in 2025. The demand for caustic soda increased by about 800,000 tons. The short - term domestic alumina price was expected to decline, ranging from 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Bauxite**: The price was stable, and the inventory was somewhat depleted [41]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The production remained high, and the in - plant inventory decreased [47]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: The operating rate declined, and the off - season was approaching [52]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: In November, exports weakened, and the estimated export profit increased slightly [57]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: The PVC spot price rebounded slightly this week, affected by overseas device disturbances. The industry's profit was slightly repaired [65][70]. - **Profit**: The price increase led to a slight repair of the industry's profit [70]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of the domestic PVC powder industry increased this week. The overall operating rate was 78.85%, up 1.51 percentage points from last week [80][86]. - **Device Dynamics**: This week, there were fewer maintenance enterprises, and the total maintenance loss was 36,300 tons, a decrease from last week. Next week, the maintenance loss was expected to change little [87][89]. - **Downstream Demand**: The two main downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, faced great pressure. Domestic demand did not improve significantly, and downstream orders were lower than the same period in the past five years [94]. - **Real Estate Data**: The real estate industry was still in the bottom - building cycle [95]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was still at the highest level in recent years [102]. - **External Market and Export**: Some external market prices weakened. In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 275,300 tons, and the import volume was 15,700 tons [109][120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Both caustic soda and PVC face oversupply, high inventory, and low - profit situations. In late 2025, both reduced production, but due to the off - season for winter maintenance, the overall supply reduction was weak. They face significant inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival, and high - level inventory needs to be continuously digested in the first half of 2026 [152] - Although the domestic chlor - alkali production capacity is in a loss, large - scale capacity elimination is difficult. In a low - profit situation, production cuts of PVC and caustic soda can drive a quick profit recovery, but it may not be sustainable for more than three months [152] - On the demand side, caustic soda is affected by the negative feedback from the low profit of alumina, while PVC faces the weak real - estate demand [152] - In terms of valuation, both have many supporting factors in 2026. Caustic soda has high volatility, and its forward futures prices between 2150 - 2300 have long - allocation value. PVC has large profit losses, but the forward premium restricts the market from trading low - valuation factors [152] - In 2026, caustic soda and PVC are expected to have a wide - range volatile market. Affected by maintenance expectations, differential electricity prices, and anti - involution sentiment, the continuous decline space is limited, but it is difficult to rise continuously before the fundamentals improve substantially. Caustic soda has stronger price elasticity than PVC [152] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basics and View Overview - Caustic soda: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state. The current supply shows high production and high inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. The demand from the alumina industry is difficult to expand significantly, and non - aluminum demand is facing a decline in the off - season. The valuation may be on the high side, and the short - term trend is likely to be weak. The recommended strategies are unilateral short, calendar spread reversal, and no cross - variety strategy [5] - PVC: Expected to run weakly. The current situation is high production and high inventory. As of January 8, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 79.67%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%. Domestic demand is weak, especially related to the real - estate industry. The cancellation of export tax rebates will increase long - term export competition pressure. The recommended strategy is unilateral range - bound operation for the 05 contract, with an upper pressure level of 4900 and a lower support level of 4600 - 4700, and no calendar spread or cross - variety strategies [7] 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Short - sellers' main logic: High supply and high inventory, with the inventory of caustic soda sample enterprises up 76% year - on - year; continuous alumina production cut expectations; about 3% of new capacity in the next year, while most non - aluminum downstream demand only grows at 2 - 3%; slowdown in export growth, limited support from the 50 - alkali to 32 - alkali spread structure; changes in delivery areas and delivery premiums/discounts [10] - Long - sellers' main logic: Anti - deflation and anti - involution are trends, with low profits, low absolute prices, and a small forward premium, offering high potential returns; significant losses in the integrated profit of caustic soda + PVC, with possible more - than - expected maintenance or production cuts in 2026; shutdown of overseas chlor - alkali plants, continuous expansion of the export market [10] - Core contradictions: Weak willingness to cut production on the supply side, and demand expansion is affected by low profits [12] - The basis of caustic soda 03 is weakening, and the 3 - 5 spread is also weakening [13] - Although the export market still has support, it is also facing structural adjustment. In 2025 from January to November, the cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 3.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The development of wet - process nickel may lead to large - scale application of the magnesium oxide precipitation process, which may replace caustic soda to some extent [17][20] - The FOB price in Northeast Asia has declined, currently around $350 per dry ton. The CIF price in Southeast Asia is $400 per dry ton, a decrease of $20 per dry ton from December 23. There is little market discussion, and Southeast Asian customers have not started new inquiries for spot orders [21][25] - The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is acceptable, and the spread between flake caustic soda and liquid caustic soda is also acceptable. The spread between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali is declining, which is negative for caustic soda. The spread between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali has always been an advanced indicator of the market, and the current spread of 10 yuan per ton is a negative signal [27][31][34] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Market structure: Rising production and rising inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. The factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 495,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 1.96% and a year - on - year increase of 76.03% [38][40] - Maintenance situation: There is less maintenance in January 2026. Some enterprises have ongoing or planned maintenance, such as Wuhai Chemical in the Northwest, Zhejiang Juhua and Ningbo Wanhua in the East, etc. [43][44] - New capacity: In 2026, caustic soda capacity will continue to be put into production, with a growth rate of over 3%. The total planned new capacity is 2.94 million tons [46] - Cost: In January 2026, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province decreased, and the cost of caustic soda has limited support. The marginal cost of Shandong's caustic soda production is calculated to be 2,122 yuan per ton. The price of liquid chlorine has not provided significant subsidies, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited [47][50][51] - Downstream of chlorine consumption: The production of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and chloroform is stable, and the profits are recovering. The stable operation of the downstream of chlorine consumption has less impact on the production reduction of caustic soda enterprises [54][59][64] 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina industry: In 2025, the alumina capacity expanded significantly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. In 2026, the new capacity is expected to reach 13.9 million tons, with more concentrated production in the first half of the year. However, the alumina industry is currently operating at a high level, with rising inventory and losses. The alumina plants may reduce production in the future, which will suppress the demand for caustic soda [72][74][76] - Other industries: The demand in the pulp industry is in the off - season, and the terminal profits are continuously being compressed. Although new pulp capacity is being put into production, the demand for caustic soda is not expected to increase significantly. The production of viscose staple fiber has increased, while the dyeing and finishing industry has declined. The water treatment industry and the ternary precursor industry have also seen a decline in production, resulting in a decrease in the overall demand for caustic soda [86][98][100] 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - Short - sellers' main logic: High supply and high inventory, with the PVC social inventory sample increasing nearly 40% year - on - year; weak domestic demand, especially in the real - estate sector; slowdown in export growth and reduced export competitiveness due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [107] - Long - sellers' main logic: Anti - deflation and anti - involution are trends, with low profits and low absolute prices; significant losses in the integrated profit of caustic soda + PVC, with the marginal device in Shandong approaching the cash - flow cost in December 2025; no new PVC capacity will be put into production in 2026; shutdown of overseas chlor - alkali plants, continuous expansion of the export market [108] - Core contradictions: The large forward premium of futures contracts [110] - The basis of the PVC main contract is oscillating strongly [111] 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The PVC production capacity utilization rate is 79.67%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%. There is less maintenance in January 2026. In 2026, except for the capacity release of Jiahua, there will be no new PVC capacity. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali plants is recovering [118][121][123] - Demand: The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly improved. The overall downstream PVC operating rate has declined month - on - month. The PVC export expectation has weakened. The single - month export volume decreased by 11.78% month - on - month, although it increased by 29.64% year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 47.17% year - on - year. The cancellation of export tax rebates from April 1, 2026, will increase future competition pressure. The demand from Southeast Asia and Central Asia is stable. The PVC warehouse receipts have declined but are still at a high level [130][136][143]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Both caustic soda and PVC face oversupply, high inventory, and low - profit situations. In late 2025, production cuts were made, but the overall supply - side reduction was weak due to the winter maintenance off - season. They will face significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and high - level inventory needs to be continuously digested in the first half of 2026 [155]. - Although domestic chlor - alkali production capacity is in a loss situation, large - scale capacity elimination is difficult. Low - profit production cuts of PVC and caustic soda can drive rapid profit repair, but it is not sustainable for more than 3 months [155]. - On the demand side, caustic soda is affected by the negative feedback from low alumina profits, while PVC faces the weak real estate demand pattern [155]. - In terms of valuation, both have many supporting factors in 2026. Caustic soda has high volatility, with an annual volatility of over 30% in recent years, and its forward futures price between 2150 - 2300 has long - allocation value. PVC has large profit losses, but the forward premium restricts the market from trading low - valuation factors [155]. - Overall, in 2026, caustic soda and PVC will mainly show a wide - range volatile market. Affected by maintenance expectations, differential electricity prices, and anti - involution sentiment, the continuous decline space is limited. But it is also difficult to rise continuously before the fundamental situation improves substantially. Caustic soda has stronger price elasticity than PVC [155]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Price and Spread - Short - term caustic soda may be weak. The 03 basis and the 3 - 5 month spread are weakening [13]. - The export market has support but is also undergoing structural adjustment. In 2025, the cumulative export volume from January to November was 3.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The Northeast Asian FOB price has declined to about $350 per dry ton, and the Southeast Asian CIF price is $400 per dry ton, a decrease of $20 per dry ton compared to December 23 [17][20]. - The Shandong - Guangdong regional arbitrage space and the flake - liquid caustic soda spread are acceptable. The flake - liquid caustic soda spread is rising, which is beneficial for caustic soda, while the 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is falling, which is negative for caustic soda [27][30]. 3.1.2 Supply - The market structure shows rising production and inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 495,200 tons (wet ton), a week - on - week increase of 1.96% and a year - on - year increase of 76.03% [38][40]. - There are few caustic soda maintenance plans in January 2026. In 2026, caustic soda will continue to see new production, with a capacity growth rate of over 3%, and the planned and under - construction production capacity to be put into operation totals 2.94 million tons [44][46]. - In January 2026, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province decreased, and the cost support for caustic soda was weak. Liquid chlorine did not provide significant subsidies, and the cost support for caustic soda was limited [47][51]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, the alumina production capacity expanded significantly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. In 2026, the new production in the first half of the year is relatively concentrated, and the annual new capacity may reach 13.9 million tons. However, the alumina industry is currently operating at a high level with rising inventory and losses, and there is an expectation of production cuts in the future [73][75]. - The paper pulp industry is in a demand off - season, with continuous compression of terminal profits, but new pulp production capacity is continuously being put into operation. The finished paper industry has stable operation. The viscose staple fiber industry has rising operation, while the printing and dyeing industry has declining operation. The water treatment industry and the ternary precursor industry have declining production [88][94]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Spread - PVC may be weak in the short term. The main contract basis is oscillating and strengthening [113]. - Short - term PVC may be weak. The main contract basis is oscillating and strengthening. The short - term PVC market may face pressure due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand. The strengthening of the main contract basis may reflect the current market's short - term supply - demand relationship [113]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - PVC production enterprises' capacity utilization rate is 79.67%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%. There are fewer PVC maintenance plans in January 2026. In 2026, except for Jiahua's capacity release, there is no new capacity [120][123]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali plants has rebounded. PVC production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and social inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. The real estate terminal demand has not shown obvious improvement, the overall downstream PVC operation has decreased month - on - month, and the PVC export expectation has weakened. Since April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for PVC and other products has been cancelled, which will increase the competition pressure in the future [127][131][146].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yinglite's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.03% and a total market value of 3.796 billion yuan [1] - Yinglite's stock price has increased by 8.32% since the beginning of the year, with a 5-day increase of 8.32%, a 20-day increase of 1.16%, and a 60-day increase of 13.70% [2] - The company is primarily engaged in the production and sales of various chemical products, with its main business revenue composition being PVC (52.21%), caustic soda (28.20%), and E-PVC (12.83%) [2] Group 2 - As of December 31, the number of Yinglite's shareholders is 21,300, a decrease of 0.61% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 0.61% to 14,227 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Yinglite achieved an operating income of 1.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.97%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -247 million yuan, an increase of 4.07% year-on-year [2] - Yinglite has distributed a total of 608 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the last three years [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is generally weak, but the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, but after the macro - sentiment fades, the futures price fluctuates and corrects. The supply of domestic PVC is abundant, the downstream start - up is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is slightly increasing. The caustic soda market also has a weak supply - demand situation, with inventory accumulation and some downstream start - up rates decreasing. The overall market is affected by both supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market Data - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,905 yuan/ton (-67), the East China basis is -245 yuan/ton (+27), and the South China basis is -265 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,660 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,640 yuan/ton (-60) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The price of semi - coke is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -110 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -634 yuan/ton (+80), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -192 yuan/ton (+87), and the PVC export profit is -27.4 US dollars/ton (+7.0) [1]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.8 tons (+1.9), the social PVC inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC start - up rate is 77.46% (+0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC start - up rate is 70.73% (-3.33%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.42% (-0.70%). The production enterprise's pre - sales volume is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1]. Market Analysis The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, but after the macro - sentiment fades, the futures price fluctuates and corrects. The domestic PVC supply is abundant, the downstream start - up is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is slightly increasing. The export orders remain resilient [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Fluctuate with the macro - situation [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5]. Caustic Soda Market Data - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,218 yuan/ton (-43), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -68 yuan/ton (+43) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,080 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,125 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 517.8 yuan/ton (-40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -194.20 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 604.50 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 49.51 tons (+0.94), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.08 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 86.80% (+0.40%) [2]. - **Downstream Start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 84.67% (-0.47%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 60.09% (-0.72%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 88.43% (+3.38%) [2]. Market Analysis The caustic soda market has a weak supply - demand pattern. The futures price rebounds with the improvement of market expectations but then fluctuates and corrects. The inventory is accumulating, and the start - up rates of some downstream industries are decreasing [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Fluctuate with the macro - situation [5]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5].