再看销售收入，9月份，三大企业商品猪销售收入同比均大幅下降，其中牧原股份同比下降 22.46%，温氏股份同比下降15.16%，新希望同比下降23.82%。 □四川日报全媒体记者 史晓露 国庆中秋长假后，国内生猪价格持续下跌。10月9日生猪期货主力合约重挫近6%，10月10日再跌 3.21%，刷新该合约上市以来新低。 猪价的下行也拖累猪企收入。10月9日至10日，温氏股份、牧原股份、新希望三大头部猪企相继发 布9月生猪销售情况简报，三大企业销量同比均增长，但销售收入同比均下降。 生猪产能集中释放是主因 从销量来看，9月份，牧原股份销售商品猪557.3万头，温氏股份销售生猪332.53万头，新希望销售 生猪139.42万头，同比增幅均为两位数。 "去年二季度全国的能繁母猪存栏持续增加，到三季度逐步到达高点，按照4个月怀孕加6个月育肥 的时间算，现在正到了产能逐步释放的阶段。"新希望六和相关负责人表示，去年底和今年初国内 生猪疫情防控情况较好，客观上增加了供给。 "产能过剩的另一大原因是生产效率提高。"四川省畜牧业协会猪业分会会长李晓勇分析，近年 来，养殖企业通过提升自主育种能力，猪企的PSY（每头母猪每年提供的断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sales reports of A-share listed pig companies for September 2025 indicate a mixed trend in sales volume and revenue, with a general decline in sales prices both month-on-month and year-on-year [1][4]. Sales Performance Summary - Tianbang Food reported sales of 612,700 pigs in September 2025, generating revenue of 634 million yuan, with an average selling price of 13.69 yuan/kg, showing month-on-month changes of 15.68% in volume, 2.14% in revenue, and a decline of 8.88% in price [2]. - Dabeinong's sales for September 2025 reached 373,700 pigs, with revenue of 541 million yuan. The sales volume increased by 6.10% month-on-month and 33.08% year-on-year, while revenue saw a month-on-month increase of 3.64% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.24% [2]. - Muyuan Foods sold 5.573 million pigs in September 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 11.05%. The average selling price was 12.88 yuan/kg, down 30.94% year-on-year, and total revenue was 9.066 billion yuan, down 22.46% year-on-year [3]. - Wens Foodstuffs sold 3.3253 million pigs, generating revenue of 4.975 billion yuan, with an average price of 13.18 yuan/kg. The sales volume and revenue showed mixed trends compared to previous months [3]. - New Hope reported sales of 1.3942 million pigs, with revenue of 1.746 billion yuan and an average price of 12.89 yuan/kg, reflecting a decline in price year-on-year [3]. Price Trends - Since October 2025, pig prices have continued to decline, with the market price dropping to 12.50 yuan/kg by October 10, down from 12.59 yuan/kg at the end of September [5]. - The wholesale price of pork has also decreased, reaching 18.85 yuan/kg on October 10, down from 19.40 yuan/kg at the end of September [5]. - Futures prices for live pigs have seen a significant drop, with a cumulative decline of approximately 9% in September and over 8% in the first two trading days of October [6]. Future Price Outlook - Long-term forecasts suggest that the pig farming industry is entering a pressure period, with potential for continued price declines. However, government policies aimed at stabilizing prices may mitigate the duration and extent of this pressure [7]. - Mid-term expectations indicate that pig prices may remain under pressure due to supply-demand dynamics, despite some consumption recovery. The market is likely to experience a "supply-demand increase" scenario, maintaining a loose supply condition [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is in a bearish trend with a strong supply and weak demand dynamic. The recent decline in pig prices during the holiday period reflects a significant increase in supply, while demand has not matched this increase, indicating that the bottom for pig prices may not have been reached yet [4]. Supply and Demand Logic - Short-term supply pressure continues with no positive drivers for pig prices, which are currently weak. The average price in many regions has fallen below 12 yuan per kilogram. The post-holiday demand is expected to decline, leading to sustained pressure on supply and prices [8]. - In the medium to long term, the supply base is established, and the overall trend for pig prices is expected to remain weak. There is potential for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, but speculative demand may influence short-term price movements [10]. Breeding and Slaughtering - The breeding sector is experiencing increased output, with the average weight of pigs being slightly reduced, indicating a stronger willingness to sell among farmers. However, the overall weight remains high compared to the same period last year, suggesting continued pressure [20][21]. - The slaughtering industry is seeing a post-holiday decline in operational rates and slaughter volumes, with average daily slaughtering volume dropping by 4.53% [35][36]. Cost and Profit Analysis - The breeding costs have remained relatively stable, but profits are being heavily influenced by falling pig prices. Currently, the breeding sector is experiencing losses, with self-breeding profits at approximately -135.62 yuan per head [48]. - The price of piglets continues to decline, leading to negative profits for piglet sales, which may affect the overall production capacity in the future [52]. Price Structure - The market is characterized by oversupply, leading to continued declines in spot prices. The price difference between fat and lean pigs has widened, indicating a more significant drop in lean pig prices compared to fat pigs [28][62].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective pullback on October 10, with the ChiNext and STAR Market showing larger adjustments compared to other indices [1] - High-dividend stocks, such as the S&P Dividend ETF, rose by 1.2%, while sectors like batteries, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals faced declines [1][2] Sector Performance - The agricultural sector, particularly the first agricultural ETF, saw a maximum intraday increase of 1.5% and closed up by 0.8%, indicating potential turning points in the pig cycle [1][4] - The technology sector faced significant declines, with the AI-focused STAR Market ETF dropping by 4.75%, suggesting a potential short-term impact on investor sentiment [1][3] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the coal sector may see a rebound due to increased winter heating demand, with potential price increases if supply constraints are enforced [3] - The agricultural sector is viewed positively due to recent policy signals aimed at reducing production capacity, which could lead to long-term price increases for pork [6][8] ETF Highlights - The agricultural ETF (159275) recorded a net subscription of 52 million units, reflecting strong investor interest [4] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) experienced a price drop of 3.41%, but maintained a premium, indicating active buying interest despite market volatility [9][14] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The easing of geopolitical tensions, such as the approval of a ceasefire in Gaza, has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand, impacting gold prices negatively [2][11] - The market is also influenced by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate adjustments, contributing to short-term uncertainties [12][13] Future Outlook - Analysts expect the pig farming industry to undergo capacity reduction, which could enhance long-term profitability for leading companies in the sector [7][8] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with expectations of continued volatility but potential for recovery in the long term [12][13]

光明肉业（600073.SH）10月10日在投资者互动平台表示，公司生猪养殖业务因综合生物安全、区域性 环保投入相对较高、养殖规模相对较小等因素影响养殖成本相对偏高，上半年尚处于亏损状态。公司将 持续推进降本增效工作，多措并举推动生猪养殖板块提质增效，包括优化资产配置，关停低效牧场；集 约化调整优化管理模式，牧场实行分类管理策略，清理关停牧场冗余人员及二线低效岗位；优化精益养 殖、优化生猪养殖科技赋能等。包括猪肉、牛羊肉在内的肉类业务是公司的核心主业，公司将进一步聚 焦肉类主业，紧密围绕"肉业一体化"的战略部署做好经营工作，深化产业协同，上控资源、中联加工、 下拓市场，持续产业链强链延链补链，形成饲料生产、生猪养殖、屠宰分割、生鲜及肉制品加工销售的 肉类全产业发展格局。 （记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：目前市场上优秀的生猪养殖公司已将养殖成本降至每 公斤12元左右，甚至12元以内，请问光明农牧的养殖成本是多少？公司后续降低成本的具体措施有哪 些？公司养殖成本预计能降到多少？ ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Weekly Report on the Pig Market [2] - Date: October 10, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Industry: Pig Market 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The pig price opened significantly lower and declined after the holiday, with the main contract 2511 falling 8.38% weekly. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern of pigs remains loose, and the pig price will oscillate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading on the 2601 contract or perform reverse arbitrage operations on pig futures [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The pig price opened low and dropped after the holiday, with the main contract 2511 down 8.38% weekly [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure persists in the near - term due to the inventory cycle of piglets and breeding sows and postponed slaughter plans. Retail farmers are actively selling due to losses and pessimism. Post - holiday demand declines, and slaughterhouse operations decrease. The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the pig price will oscillate weakly. Suggest short - side trading on the 2601 contract or reverse arbitrage on pig futures [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fell, and the main contract 2511 dropped 8.38% weekly [7][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 10, the net short position of the top 20 holders increased by 5388 lots to 33089 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts remained at 0, unchanged from before the holiday [16]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 180, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 385 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Basis**: The basis of the November contract was - 320 yuan/ton, and the basis of the January contract was - 1140 yuan/ton [27]. - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average pig price was 12.5 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from last week and 5.94% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 24.86 yuan/kg, down 0.52 yuan/kg from last week and 11.21% from last month [34]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: The national average pork price on September 25 was 24.29 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [38]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of September 24, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.68, down 0.13 from the previous week and below 6:1 [42]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In August 2025, the national breeding sow inventory was 40380000 heads, down 40000 heads month - on - month, up 0.05% year - on - year, and 103.5% of the normal level. Among the 208 sample enterprises, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 5056500 heads, down 0.83% month - on - month and up 1.86% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 173900 heads, down 0.09% month - on - month and up 5.92% year - on - year [47]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424470000 heads, up 7160000 heads from the previous quarter and 9140000 heads year - on - year. In August, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 3614500000 heads, up 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July was 148820000 heads, up 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [52]. - **Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 1070350000 heads, up 2.56% month - on - month and 23.49% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July was 47370000 heads, down 1.44% month - on - month and up 54.30% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs was 123.48 kg, up 0.01 kg from last week [57]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of September 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 236.57 yuan/head, an increase of 37.25 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 74.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 49.66 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was 0.11 yuan/head, down 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.40 yuan/head [62]. - **Pork Imports**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 710000 tons, with a monthly average of 88750 tons. In August, the imports were 80000 tons, down 11.11% year - on - year [63][67]. - **Substitute Products**: As of September 26, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. As of October 9, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.59 yuan/kg, with the price difference of fat pigs expanding by 0.2 yuan/kg [70]. - **Feed Situation**: As of October 10, the spot price of soybean meal was 3013.71 yuan/ton, down 4.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2311.57 yuan/ton, down 57.06 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 877.43, down 0.99% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. In August 2025, the monthly feed output was 2927200 tons, up 99900 tons month - on - month; the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and 0.74% year - on - year [76][82][85]. - **CPI**: As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operations**: In the 41st week, the slaughterhouse operation rate was 34.53%, down 1.24 percentage points from last week but higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen - product storage rate was 17.75%, up 0.1 percentage points from last week [92]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of August 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 33500000 heads, up 5.81% month - on - month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 44957000000 yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [97]. 3.7 Pig Stocks - The report presents the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98][101]

Group 1 - Dongfang Caifu announced that shareholders plan to transfer a total of 237.8 million shares at a price of 24.40 yuan per share, with 32 institutional investors participating in the bidding [1] - Laofengxiang's subsidiary plans to invest 24 million USD to acquire a 20% stake in Maybach Luxury Goods Asia Pacific, becoming the second-largest shareholder [1] - Saito Bio's subsidiary received a CEP certificate for Dexamethasone Sodium Phosphate, allowing it to sell in international markets [2] Group 2 - Jianglong Shipbuilding is expected to win a bid for a 600-ton fishery enforcement vessel project worth 72.99 million yuan, accounting for 4.22% of its audited revenue for 2024 [3] - Shikong Technology is planning to acquire control of Shenzhen Jiahe Jinwei Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., with stock trading suspended for up to 5 trading days [4] - Mould Technology's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1% due to funding needs [5] Group 3 - Guokong Electronics expects a net profit increase of 64.72% to 80.17% for the first three quarters of 2025, with projected revenue of 340 million to 370 million yuan [7] - Beimo High-Tech anticipates a net profit increase of 50% to 60% for the same period, with a projected net profit of 125 million to 133 million yuan [8] - ST Haofeng's controlling shareholder has transferred 15.0046% of shares to Zhixin Network at a price of 6 yuan per share, totaling 331 million yuan [9] Group 4 - ST Changyuan's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% within 90 days due to risk management [11] - Runze Technology's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1% due to personal funding needs [12] - Limin Co. expects a net profit increase of 649.71% to 669.25% for the first three quarters of 2025, with a projected net profit of 384 million to 394 million yuan [14] Group 5 - Kanda New Materials received a government subsidy of 10.05 million yuan, accounting for 4.08% of its latest audited net profit [15] - Keheng Co.'s shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1% due to personal funding needs [16] - New Hope reported a September sales revenue of 1.746 billion yuan from 1.3942 million pigs sold, with a year-on-year decline of 23.82% [18] Group 6 - Wan'an Technology plans to invest 150 million yuan to establish a joint venture in Wuhan for automotive chassis systems [19] - Wan'an Technology also intends to acquire a 40% stake in Fuao Wan'an for 26.22 million yuan, aiming for full ownership [19] - Kuai Ke Electronics' controlling shareholder plans to transfer 4% of the company's shares through an inquiry [20] Group 7 - Changan Automobile's joint venture Avita Technology has completed payment of 3.45 billion yuan for a 10% stake in Huawei's Yiwang [21]

8月能繁母猪存栏环比-0.1%，9月猪价新低 猪价自24.1.17低点震荡回升，8月中旬达年内高点21.06元/kg，此后震荡回落;25年9月17日猪价13.71 元/kg，较24年年末下跌16%。9月26日自繁自养、外购仔猪养殖利润-74元/头、-237元/头;行业整体亏损 或可带来产能去化。8月末我国能繁母猪存栏量4038万头，环比-0.1%。关于25年猪价走势，该行认为年 度均价同比下行，差异在于优秀猪企完全成本持续优化，带来养殖利润超预期。此外25年以来猪企产能 变化节奏、行业二育情况、出栏体重等方面或受相关影响而带来超预期变化，值得重点关注。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，持续重点强调关注生猪养殖行业的攻守兼备布局机会， 基于能繁母猪作用值及养殖效率的考虑，25年猪价同比或呈下行走势;综合考虑政策去产能以及行业亏 损去产能，叠加成本下行带来的优秀猪企利润超预期，重点关注成本边际变化显著、资金面良好的优质 猪企。宠物食品行业处成长过程中，优质企业市占率呈提升趋势。该行建议可关注养殖链后周期，推荐 饲料龙头及动物疫苗相关企业。黄鸡价格与猪价有一定相关性，且考虑自身供给端低位，后续价格存上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pork market is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (旺季不旺) situation during the traditional demand peak season, with prices under pressure due to oversupply and weak consumption [1][2]. Market Performance - The national mainstream transaction price for live pigs is running between 11.0 to 12.6 yuan/kg, with prices in the Sichuan-Chongqing region dropping below 11 yuan/kg [1]. - On October 9, live pig futures opened lower, with the main contract hitting a low of 11,535 yuan/ton, down 5.88% by midday [1]. - Trading volume increased to over 50,000 lots, a growth of more than 30% compared to September 30 [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the simultaneous decline in both futures and spot prices reflects a pessimistic market outlook regarding future supply and demand dynamics [1]. - The current supply pressure is expected to persist, with the national pig output maintaining an upward trend due to high breeding sow inventory levels [2][3]. Policy and Industry Response - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is actively promoting high-quality development in the pig industry, emphasizing strict capacity control measures [2]. - Despite positive policy signals, the actual pace of capacity reduction is slower than expected, with breeding sow inventory remaining above the target adjustment level [2]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the current pig prices are in a bottoming phase, with short-term pressures from strong supply and weak demand [3]. - The potential for a seasonal rebound in Q4 will depend on the weight of pigs at market release; a decrease in weight could alleviate supply pressure and allow for price recovery, albeit with limited upward potential [3][4].

Group 1 - The company reported sales of 351,800 pigs in September 2025, generating revenue of 577 million yuan from pig sales, with 348,800 of those being market pigs [2][3] - The sales data is based on internal statistics and may differ from periodic report disclosures, serving as a reference for investors [3] - The company faces systemic risks in the pig farming industry, including significant price fluctuations and animal diseases, which could impact operational performance [3] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative amount of the convertible bond "Juxing Convertible Bond" that has been converted is 100,261,000 yuan, resulting in 3,976,890 shares, accounting for 0.7858% of the total shares before conversion [7][13] - The amount of unconverted "Juxing Convertible Bond" as of September 30, 2025, is 899,739,000 yuan, representing 89.9739% of the total issuance [7][13] - No conversions occurred in the third quarter of 2025, with a conversion amount of 0 yuan and 0 shares formed [8][13] Group 3 - The company issued a total of 1,000 million yuan in convertible bonds on April 25, 2022, with a face value of 100 yuan per bond and a maturity of 6 years [9] - The bond was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on May 17, 2022, under the name "Juxing Convertible Bond" [10] - The conversion price for the bonds was adjusted from 25.24 yuan to 25.21 yuan on August 8, 2023, and further adjusted to 25.04 yuan on June 17, 2025 [11][12]