Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][73]. Core Views - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on the mid-year performance of the sector. The overall sentiment is improving due to policy expectations aimed at boosting domestic demand, leading to a recovery in the liquor sector after significant declines [2][11][13]. - The beer and beverage segments are entering a peak season, with expectations for strong mid-year performance. Companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are projected to achieve substantial profit growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [14][15][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and market health for liquor companies, suggesting a shift towards internationalization and targeting younger demographics [2][11][13]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor index rose by 1.4% this week, with major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye focusing on brand strength and service enhancement. The sector is expected to recover from low valuations, although demand pressures remain significant [2][11][13]. - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, which have demonstrated strong risk resilience [2][11][13]. Consumer Goods - The beer segment is expected to benefit from seasonal demand, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer forecasting a 40% to 50% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [14][15]. - The snack sector is experiencing volatility, with a recommendation for companies with strong performance certainty, such as Wei Long and Yan Jin [16]. - In the condiment sector, leading companies are expected to show resilience, with a focus on policy developments that could enhance the restaurant industry's vitality [17]. Frozen Foods and Dairy - Frozen food companies are actively developing new products to cater to both B2B and B2C markets, with a focus on convenience and smaller packaging [18]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in demand, supported by favorable policies and improved supply dynamics [19]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage expected to continue expanding their market presence [20].

"披星戴帽"的青海春天，"保壳"之路不容乐观。 7月14日晚间，*ST春天（即青海春天）披露今年上半年业绩预告，该公司预计上半年归母净利润为96 万元至138万元，而在去年同期，该公司归母净亏损为5986.99万元，同比实现扭亏。与此同时，青海春 天预计今年上半年营收为1.21亿元至1.26亿元，同比下降8.95%至12.65%。 根据青海春天方面解释，上半年营收预计同比下跌，主要是受市场环境变化和第二季度主营业务处于行 业淡季影响所致，归母净利润实现盈利，主要是上半年内销售的产品结构发生变化，导致平均毛利率和 毛利额增加，同时销售费用和管理费用减少所致。 青海春天预计上半年扭亏为盈。（截图来源：企业公告） 不过，南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者注意到，相比第一季度的盈利，青海春天第二季度的归 母净利润或陷入亏损状态。今年第一季度，青海春天归母净利润为891.81万元。以此计算，青海春天第 二季度的归母净亏损或为753.81万元至795.81万元。 虽然青海春天并未具体披露影响业绩的主要业务，但从其预告中部分表述来看，其处于第二季度淡季的 主营业务，可能是该公司白酒产品听花酒。 据南都湾财社记者了解，"重 ...

近日，衡水老白干在河北省内密集开展活动及调研，仅 6 月便举行了十余场。大规模走动 市场背后，或许是新任董事长王占刚上任后的"焦虑"。 此前，老白干接连向市场交出两份并不乐观的答卷—— 2024 年营收同比增长仅 1.91% ， 增速大幅下滑； 2025 年一季度营收 11.68 亿元，同比增长也仅有 3.36% ，且百元以下 产品"失速"，营收同比下降 15.65% 。 在资本市场端，老白干也逐渐不被看好。 2024 年，公司十大股东中，有四个席位进行了 减持。值此风口浪尖，包括副董事长、副总经理在内的三位高管也表现出了减持倾向，引起 投资者不满。 雪上加霜的是，大本营河北市场根基也开始松动。有业内人士告诉《酒业内参》，丛台、山 庄老酒的体量达 20 亿 -30 亿级，已与老白干相当，沙城老窖也在以较快速度增长，体量 已有 10 亿级。 摆在老白干面前的难题该如何解？ 文 | 酒业内参 张奥 百元以下产品"失速" 近期白酒行业掀起了一波高管离职潮，而如果向前回溯，很容易发现，担任衡水老白干董事 长长达 12 年的刘彦龙是几乎是最早退位的。而这背后或与业绩下滑有尤为紧密联系。 早在 2015 年，刘彦龙曾雄心 ...

近期白酒行业掀起了一波高管离职潮，而如果向前回溯，很容易发现，担任衡水老白干董事长长达12年 的刘彦龙是几乎是最早退位的。而这背后或与业绩下滑有尤为紧密联系。 早在2015年，刘彦龙曾雄心勃勃地提出"百亿营收"的战略目标。十年过去，它的营收规模才刚刚爬过50 亿关口，勉强过半。 不仅目标进度缓慢，如今连企业增速也开始大幅下滑。以2024年为例，衡水老白干实现营收53.28亿 元，同比增长仅1.91%，对比2021年、2022年、2023年保持的11.93%、15.54%、12.98%双位数增长，堪 称"断崖式下滑"。 文 | 酒业内参 张奥 近日，衡水老白干在河北省内密集开展活动及调研，仅6月便举行了十余场。大规模走动市场背后，或 许是新任董事长王占刚上任后的"焦虑"。 此前，老白干接连向市场交出两份并不乐观的答卷——2024年营收同比增长仅1.91%，增速大幅下滑； 2025年一季度营收11.68亿元，同比增长也仅有3.36%，且百元以下产品"失速"，营收同比下降15.65%。 在资本市场端，老白干也逐渐不被看好。2024年，公司十大股东中，有四个席位进行了减持。值此风口 浪尖，包括副董事长、副总经理在内的 ...

中信证券：预计二季度白酒业绩持续承压 金十数据7月15日讯，中信证券研报称，今年二季度，相关政策对政务宴请标准进一步规范，白酒相关 需求在端午节后出现明显走弱趋势，叠加618期间线下即时零售和线上电商平台加大对酒水品类的补 贴，部分批价出现一定程度下降，我们预计二季度白酒业绩持续承压。 ...

【深圳商报讯】（记者 陈燕青）近期，A股走出了"反内卷"主题行情，钢铁、多晶硅、玻璃等板块全面 爆发。市场预期，随着"反内卷"扩散至各行各业，"反内卷"主题有望成为接下来一段时间的投资主线之 一。 "反内卷"政策的具体影响可能会因行业而异。国金证券认为，本轮过剩产能很大一部分集中在光伏、锂 电、新能源车等中高端制造业领域。这些行业未来仍具备需求增长潜力，直接出清的概率较低，政策效 果可能会相对较弱；而对于传统产能占比相对更高、产能利用率较高且产品价格处于低位的行业，政策 通过限制产能利用率，就有望对企业盈利产生明显作用。 根据华创证券研报，从国企占比、行业集中度、价格弹性、税收、就业5个视角筛选"反内卷"潜在受益 行业，其中筛选出次数最多的为4次，包括：煤炭开采、焦炭、普钢、能源金属、玻璃玻纤、冶钢原 料、贵金属、白酒、酒店餐饮。筛选出3次的有：乘用车、风电设备、食品加工、非金属材料、水泥、 化学制品、房屋建设、基础建设。 华创证券认为，从"反内卷"措施来看，以行业自律、行政指导、舆论监督为主，按照约束力排序，或是 钢铁＞生猪＞汽车＞水泥＞光伏。 东方财富首席策略分析师陈果建议积极关注"反内卷"政策背景下的投 ...

沱江边美食一条街。 □乔陆/文 牟科/图在泸州老窖国宝窖池群旁，一座形似巨型酒樽的建筑——中国白酒博物馆正拔地 而起。这座总投资15亿元的地标性建筑，将成为泸州新的"城市封面"。泸州，这座因酒而兴的城 市，正在重构酒城消费新生态。今年1—5月，泸州市社会消费品零售总额实现605.6亿元，同比增 长6.8%，增速位居全省第三位。然而，泸州清醒地认识到："酒香也怕巷子深"。如何持续擦亮"中 国酒城"的金字招牌？如何让两江四岸的商业资源高效联动？如何培育新的消费增长点，激发消费 潜能？泸州的答案是——以"酒"为媒，推进文旅商深度融合发展，着力打造具有全球影响力的白 酒文化旅游目的地，具有区域集聚力的休闲度假区、健康活力区、时尚赛演区，建成文旅融合科 技创新走廊。空间再造、场景上新、市场培育，泸州以"三新"实践助力高质量建设区域消费中心 城市。空间再造"酒要会·在泸州"点亮城市新地标"过去游客来泸州，大多只是看看窖池、买瓶 酒，消费链条单一。由于老窖景区面积限制，游客停留时间也相对短暂。"泸州市文化广播电视和 旅游局相关负责人坦言。以2024年国庆假期的数据为例，泸州老窖旅游区接待游客2.6万余人次， 而位于合江县的 ...

Group 1: Digital Economy Development - The development of the digital economy requires breakthroughs in technology, industrial collaboration, and international governance to build new advantages [1] - The digital economy era is driving profound changes in production factors, industrial forms, and competitive paradigms, with companies that possess technological foresight and agile transformation capabilities being able to seize development opportunities [1] - Key characteristics of digital economy development include innovation and market collaboration, deep restructuring of factor structures, and emerging enterprises having stronger innovation vitality and competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Innovation Ecosystem - China aims to consolidate and further develop its advantages in the digital economy by advancing new infrastructure construction such as 5G networks and intelligent computing power [2] - The establishment of a unified data factor market is essential to support the innovation and development of technology-based enterprises [2] - Regional collaborative development should focus on promoting distinctive digital industries based on local advantages to form a differentiated development pattern [2] Group 3: Embodied Intelligence - Embodied intelligence aims to break the limitations of traditional artificial intelligence by endowing intelligent agents with physical perception and action capabilities [3] - The global embodied intelligence industry is significant, with applications enhancing productivity, such as the use of 80 intelligent transport vehicles at Shanghai Yangshan Port, which increased throughput by 130% [3] - Embodied intelligence is leading to revolutionary changes in production, service, and innovation ecosystems, while also facing challenges such as physical safety and data sovereignty [3][4] Group 4: Data Factor Market Development - Data is a crucial production factor in the digital economy, and balancing value release with privacy protection is key to market development [5] - Hunan Province has been proactive in building a data factor market, with plans for a national data factor comprehensive pilot zone by 2025 [5][6] - There is a need to enhance personal data rights, improve data trading mechanisms, and strengthen privacy protection to promote high-quality development of the data factor market [6] Group 5: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics - Alibaba Cloud is actively promoting the development of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and has made significant advancements in large model training technology [7][8] - The demand for intelligent robots in various sectors, including elderly care, is increasing, necessitating higher computational power for tasks such as perception and decision-making [9][10] - Domestic AI chips are becoming critical for the advancement of intelligent robots, with companies like Zhongke Yihai Microelectronics focusing on developing integrated AI chip architectures [11][12] Group 6: Smart Elderly Care Solutions - The aging population in China necessitates innovative solutions in the healthcare and elderly care sectors, with companies like Yanda Group integrating AI technology into their services [13][14] - Yanda International Health City is leveraging AI for personalized healthcare and rehabilitation solutions, aiming to set a replicable model for smart elderly care [14] Group 7: Digital Transformation in Traditional Industries - Xifeng Liquor is utilizing digital technology to enhance production processes and quality control, implementing a comprehensive digital management system [15][16] - The company is exploring new marketing models and integrating digital technology into its green production system to improve efficiency and sustainability [15] Group 8: Robotics in Households - The robotics industry is expected to accelerate, with companies like Yuanluobo focusing on making intelligent robots accessible to ordinary households [17][18] - The introduction of affordable household robots has the potential to address various family needs, achieving significant market recognition with over 100,000 units sold globally [18][19] Group 9: Digital Freight and Logistics - Digital freight is reshaping the logistics industry, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs through platforms like Manbang Group's "Yunmanman" [20][21] - The Ministry of Transport anticipates a reduction in logistics costs by 300 billion yuan by 2025, with a focus on optimizing transportation organization and resource allocation [21]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decline in net profit and revenue for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, primarily due to ongoing challenges in the liquor industry and reduced consumer demand [1][9][10]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 105.41 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 137.01 million yuan or 56.52% year-on-year [3][9]. - The expected operating revenue for the same period is 1.4978 billion yuan, down 220.72 million yuan or 12.84% compared to the previous year [3][9]. - Sales volume is projected to increase by 543 thousand liters, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.54%, with all sales coming from mid-to-high-end liquor [3][9]. Group 2: Previous Year’s Performance - In the same period last year, the company reported a total profit of 329.50 million yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 242.42 million yuan [5]. - The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 228.03 million yuan [5]. - The operating revenue for the previous year was 1.71852 billion yuan, with a sales volume of 3.735 million liters [7][8]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Changes - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with traditional consumption scenarios like business banquets facing significant pressure, leading to a slowdown in market recovery [9]. - The overall consumption performance during the Spring Festival was below expectations, resulting in higher-than-expected channel inventory levels, which affected shipment volumes in the following months [10]. - The trend of weak consumer demand further intensified in the second quarter, impacting the inventory reduction process and slowing down the recovery of shipments [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly with the sentiment around high-end liquor brands improving as major companies stabilize their pricing strategies [5][7]. - The beer segment is experiencing marginal demand improvement, with cost reductions expected to enhance profit margins [5]. - The snack food sector is noted for its high growth potential, driven by strong product categories and new distribution channels [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on new product categories and channels to uncover alpha opportunities within the food and beverage industry [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector rose by 0.84% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.03 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sectors [12]. - Notable performers included liquor and health products, which increased by 1.41% and 1.37%, respectively [12]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - As of July 13, 2025, the price of 2024 Flying Moutai (original) is 1950 CNY, down 150 CNY from the previous month [21]. - The beer production for May 2025 was 3.584 million kiloliters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [26]. - The average price of fresh milk is 3.04 CNY per kilogram, remaining stable for a month [28]. 3. Industry Dynamics - In June, liquor prices decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [53]. - The report notes a slight increase in the national white liquor price index in early July, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [54]. 4. Core Company Updates - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.062 to 1.137 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, representing a growth of 40% to 50% [55]. - Wuliangye announced a cash dividend of 31.69 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 12.301 billion CNY [55].