[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|纺织服饰 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 纺织服饰行业全球观察之彪马 FY2025：战略重置阵痛期，营收下降，净利润亏损 | 分析师： [Tabl | 糜韩杰 | | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516020001 | | | SFC CE.no: BPH764 | | | 021-38003650 | | | mihanjie@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 7 972918116公共联系人2026-03-01 20:41:30 备注：表中估值指标按照最新收盘价计算 972918116公共联系人2026-03-01 20:41:30 [本报告联系人： Table_C ontacter] ⚫ 彪马公布 2025 业绩(2025 年 1-12 月)：（1）营收：FY2025 实现营收 72.96 亿欧元，经汇率调整后同比减少 8.1%。 主要由于公司在经销业务中主动实施战略重置措施，包括减少对大 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][56] Core Insights - Moncler Group's 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with total revenue of €3.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1% (3% at constant exchange rates), and a net profit of €627 million, which is overall higher than market expectations [3][13] - The Asia region accounted for 52% of total revenue, with a growth rate of 11% in Q4, driven by strong performance in China and South Korea, while the Americas maintained steady expansion and Europe was affected by weak tourism [3][13][17] - The shift in growth structure is notable, with a focus on Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channels, which are expected to drive long-term growth, while wholesale channels have stabilized [14][16] Summary by Sections Moncler Financial Performance - Moncler achieved a revenue of €3.13 billion in 2025, with a net profit of €627 million, showing a significant acceleration in Q4 with a 7% growth at constant exchange rates [3][13] - The main brand, Moncler, showed steady growth, while Stone Island experienced a 16% growth in Q4 [3][13][16] Regional Performance - The Asia market's contribution reached 52%, with a growth rate of 11% in Q4, indicating strong demand recovery in China and South Korea [3][13][17] - The Americas continued to expand, while Europe faced challenges due to tourism fatigue [3][13] DTC Channel Growth - DTC channels are identified as the core of long-term growth, with revenue expected to reach $2.67 billion by 2025, while wholesale channels have stabilized around $400 million [14][16] - The DTC strategy is reflected in the increasing number of stores in Asia and the Americas, aligning with revenue growth areas [21][24] Refrigerant Regulation Impact - The air conditioning industry is entering a "quota constraint + lifecycle management" era due to the implementation of the Kigali Amendment, which will freeze HFCs total volume in China starting in 2024 and lead to substantial reductions by 2029 [4][26] - The shift in regulation will create a more structured market for recycled refrigerants and recovery management, benefiting leading companies with technological reserves and cost transfer capabilities [4][28]

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|纺织服饰 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 纺织服饰行业全球观察之亚玛芬 FY2025Q4：精彩收官，营收高增，所有业务板块、地区和渠道均实现两位数增长 | 分析师： [Tabl | 糜韩杰 | | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516020001 | | | SFC CE.no: BPH764 | | | 021-38003650 | | | mihanjie@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 相关研究 [Table_Report ： ] | 纺织服装行业全球观察之 VF:FY2026Q3：北美地区销售回暖，亚太和 EMEA 地区销售承压 | 2026-02-27 | | --- | --- | | 纺织服装行业全球观察之 Moncler SpA:FY2025：直营渠道延续增长，亚洲市场表现亮眼 | 2026-02-26 | | 纺织服装行业全球观察之亚瑟士:FY2025：业绩持续高增长，FY2026 展望乐观 | 2026-02-25 | 识别风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - Liaoning Province has introduced a set of 20 new policies aimed at promoting economic development, focusing on industrial transformation, innovation, domestic and foreign trade, and support for enterprises and citizens [1] Group 1: Industrial Transformation - The new policies target key areas such as "smart transformation and digital transition," artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, and productive service industries, providing financial support for eligible projects [2] - By 2026, Liaoning plans to establish a provincial "smart transformation and digital transition" diagnostic service platform to offer free diagnostic services to large industrial enterprises, tailoring transformation plans to individual companies [2] Group 2: Innovation Development - The policies include support for cutting-edge technology research, differentiated incubator construction, and encouraging innovation in standards and quality management [2] - A budget of 10 million yuan will be allocated this year to support incubator construction, with top-performing incubators eligible for rewards of up to 2 million yuan based on performance evaluations [2] Group 3: Support for Enterprises and Citizens - New measures include enhancing financial support products, reducing costs for industrial land, and increasing special loans for job stability and expansion [3] - A notable policy allows localities to lower the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, adapting to changes in the real estate market [3] - The continuation of differentiated toll policies for highways aims to reduce transportation costs for specific vehicles, leading to increased traffic volume and lower costs since implementation [3] Group 4: Comprehensive Economic Support - The 20 new policies represent a comprehensive approach to assist enterprises in overcoming challenges and enhancing economic quality and efficiency, aiming for sustainable development in Liaoning's economy [3]

Group 1 - The core focus is on the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, which is seen as a driving force for development [1][2] - The importance of deep integration between industry, academia, and research is emphasized, with a call for innovative mechanisms and win-win cooperation to overcome challenges [2] - A significant number of projects in synthetic biology and new energy have been successfully implemented, enhancing opportunities for quality education and university access [2] Group 2 - Research has revealed issues such as overcapacity in strategic emerging industries like new energy, leading to unhealthy competition [3] - There is a need for industry self-regulation and capacity control to foster healthy competition and promote technological innovation for industrial and consumer upgrades [3] - The future of technological innovation is anticipated to open new application scenarios, with a focus on areas like autonomous vehicles and embodied intelligence, leveraging unique advantages in talent, market scale, and industrial foundation [3]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate reached a high of 6.8267, marking a significant appreciation of over 2% within two months, leading to a depreciation of USD holdings by approximately 6% for those who held USD last year [1][3] - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the weakening of the USD, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a criminal investigation into its chairman, which has impacted the dollar's strength [3][4] - China's economic resilience, with a trade surplus of approximately $1.2 trillion in 2025, has contributed to the demand for RMB as companies convert their USD earnings into RMB for operational needs [3][4] Group 2 - Importing companies are benefiting from the RMB appreciation, as it reduces costs for products priced in USD, leading to increased net profits for firms like Shanghai Laishi and others in the paper industry [6] - Conversely, traditional export-oriented industries, such as textiles and toys, face increased pressure as their products become more expensive in international markets, potentially losing orders to competitors in Southeast Asia [7] - The real estate market is experiencing a nuanced impact, with core assets in major cities seeing increased foreign investment, while smaller cities struggle with high inventory and weak demand [8] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has responded to the rapid appreciation of the RMB by lowering the foreign exchange risk reserve requirement for forward foreign exchange transactions from 20% to 0%, aiming to stabilize the currency [10] - Companies are encouraged to manage exchange rate risks through forward contracts, which have become more accessible due to reduced costs for banks following the policy change [10] - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality assets that benefit from cost reductions and asset revaluation rather than engaging in speculative trading [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the textile and apparel industry, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [40]. Core Insights - The report highlights that VF Corporation's FY2026Q3 performance shows a revenue of $2.876 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 1.48% after currency adjustments. Net profit reached $301 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 79.17% after currency adjustments [4]. - The gross margin for FY2026Q3 was reported at 56.62%, up by 0.33 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to higher quality inventory and lower discounts [4]. - The operating profit margin for FY2026Q3 was 10.05%, an increase of 2.08 percentage points year-over-year [4]. - The report notes a mixed performance across product categories and regions, with North America showing a revenue increase of 2%, while the Asia-Pacific and EMEA regions experienced declines of 7% and 4%, respectively [4]. Summary by Category/Brand - **By Product Category**: - Sportswear revenue was $1.926 billion, up 5% year-over-year, while outdoor apparel revenue was $672 million, down 9% year-over-year [4]. - **By Brand**: - Revenue for The North Face was $1.356 billion (up 5%), Vans at $558 million (down 10%), and Timberland at $570 million (up 5%) [4]. Summary by Region - **North America**: Revenue of $1.539 billion, a 2% increase year-over-year [4]. - **Asia-Pacific**: Revenue of $408 million, a 7% decrease year-over-year [4]. - **EMEA**: Revenue of $929 million, a 4% decrease year-over-year [4]. Summary by Channel - **Wholesale Channel**: Revenue of $1.250 billion, a 5% decrease year-over-year [4]. - **Direct-to-Consumer Channel**: Revenue of $1.626 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year [4]. Operational Metrics - Cash conversion days for FY2026Q3 were 108.9 days, a decrease of 10.3 days year-over-year [4]. - Accounts receivable turnover days were 52.4 days, an increase of 4.1 days year-over-year [4]. - Inventory turnover days were approximately 142.8 days, a decrease of 8.6 days year-over-year [4]. Shareholder Returns - The board announced a quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share [4]. Performance Outlook - For FY2026Q4, the company expects revenue growth of 0%-2% and adjusted operating profit between $10 million and $30 million. The gross margin is expected to remain stable or slightly increase compared to the previous year [4].

Core Insights - Shantou City launched 40 major projects with a total investment of 21.8 billion yuan, focusing on industrial upgrades, infrastructure, public welfare, and marine economy [1] Group 1: Project Categories - The projects are divided into two main categories: industrial projects (30 projects with a total investment of 11.865 billion yuan) and "Hundred Million Thousand Project" (10 projects with a total investment of 9.925 billion yuan) [1] - Industrial projects are the core focus, targeting sectors such as smart manufacturing, textiles and apparel, new energy, food processing, and high-end equipment manufacturing [1] - The "Hundred Million Thousand Project" emphasizes public welfare and industrial support, including transportation networks, drainage systems, park facilities, and coastal tourism [1] Group 2: Key Project Highlight - The Shantou Coastal Tourism Highway project is a significant component of Guangdong's coastal tourism infrastructure, with a total length of 128 kilometers and an investment of approximately 5.2 billion yuan [1] - This project will connect five administrative districts and two functional areas, aiming to integrate transportation, cultural tourism, industrial empowerment, and rural revitalization into a strategic development axis [1] - The Coastal Tourism Highway is positioned as a landmark project for Shantou's initiative to advance the "Hundred Million Thousand Project" and develop a distinctive modern marine city [1]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.06% and 1.04% respectively [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 25,055 billion yuan, a decrease of 512 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 3,200 stocks rising [4] Key Stocks and Sectors - The rare earth and small metal prices have been rising due to supply and demand dynamics, leading to significant gains in related stocks, with companies like Zhangyuan Tungsten and Yunnan Zhenye reaching historical highs [4] - Power stocks saw strong performance in the afternoon, with companies such as Jiawei New Energy and Fuling Power hitting the daily limit [5] Individual Stock Highlights YN Holdings - YN Holdings experienced a surge, achieving seven consecutive daily limit-ups, with a closing price of 13.34 yuan, nearly doubling from 6.85 yuan since February 11 [11] - The company announced plans to acquire a controlling stake in Zhengzhou Heying Data Co., which specializes in large-scale data center operations, with an expected investment of up to 1.4 billion yuan [11][12] - The company anticipates a net profit of 305 million to 391 million yuan by 2025, driven by lower power generation costs and improved performance in thermal power operations [14] Hongxing Shares - Hongxing Shares exhibited volatility, initially dropping to the daily limit before rebounding to close at the limit, marking a "floor to ceiling" movement [16] - The company reported no significant changes in its main business, which focuses on the research, design, production, and sales of homewear [19] - The static P/E ratio stands at 48.43, significantly higher than the industry average of 19.08, indicating potential overvaluation [21][22] Rare Metals Sector - The rare metals sector saw renewed strength, with companies like Zhangyuan Tungsten and others experiencing significant price increases [23][24] - Zhangyuan Tungsten recorded five limit-ups in seven days, with a current market value of 48.8 billion yuan [27] - Recent price adjustments for key products in the rare metals market indicate a bullish trend, with prices for black tungsten concentrate and other products rising significantly [29]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reduction in the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0%, effective March 2, 2026, to lower costs for enterprises and encourage foreign exchange demand, thereby easing the rapid appreciation of the Renminbi [2][3] - The offshore Renminbi reached a three-year high against the US dollar at 6.8267 on February 26, 2026, with an appreciation of approximately 2% since the beginning of the year and about 6% over the past year [4][6] - Analysts suggest that the current appreciation of the Renminbi is primarily due to the weakening of the US dollar, with additional factors including increased foreign exchange supply from trade surpluses and rising domestic producer prices [6] Group 2 - The appreciation of the Renminbi is expected to benefit the stock market, as historical data shows higher success rates for stocks during Renminbi appreciation periods, with foreign capital inflows into A-shares increasing since 2025 [7] - Certain sectors are identified as beneficiaries of the Renminbi appreciation, including industries that benefit from lower costs (e.g., steel, non-ferrous metals) and those with significant dollar-denominated debt (e.g., aviation, real estate) [7][8] - However, export-oriented industries, such as textiles and apparel, may face challenges due to decreased competitiveness, although the overall impact of exchange rate appreciation on corporate profits has diminished since the US-China trade tensions began [8]