美越协议落地，如何看出口企业投资机会 20250703 摘要 对越南零关税使在东南亚有完善产能布局的企业受益，因其可利用越南 较低关税优势进行生产和出口，提升市场竞争力。 纺织服装行业品牌商通过采购结构改善、终端小幅度提价及降本增效等 方式应对关税，制造商承担的关税负担较小，下单节奏趋于稳定。 美国对中国出口商品加征关税，而越南全品类加征关税及转口贸易关税， 扩大了中国与越南之间出口美国的关税差距，利好东南亚本地化率高的 企业。 家电行业产业链共同分担新增成本，产业链地位强、产品加价率高的龙 头公司出口定价稳定，净利润率影响较小，如匠心家居通过高毛利大单 品保持增长。 耐克预计 2025 年圣诞节订单在全球多个区域（除中国外）将有良性增 长，带动耐克产业链相关制造商股价回弹，建议关注与终端品牌商有深 入合作且订单饱满的鞋服类公司。 东南亚生产成本仍低于墨西哥，加征 10%关税对本土化占比较高且渠道 加价合理的家电公司影响有限，白电龙头企业在越南零部件本地化率超 过 50%，吸尘器等小家电已做到 90%以上。 TCL 电子在美国市场销量中，部分产能来自墨西哥，大部分来自东南亚， 产品进入中高端渠道，加价逻辑顺畅 ...

Group 1 - The consumer industry is undergoing a profound transformation from scale expansion to quality upgrading, driven by policy incentives, technological iterations, and changes in consumer preferences and habits [1][14]. - The new consumer groups represented by Generation Z, the elderly, and women are pushing consumption demand towards personalization and quality [1][17]. - Domestic brands are experiencing sustained growth, with sensory experiences becoming the core touchpoint linking consumers and products [1][29]. Group 2 - The importance of domestic demand has been reaffirmed, with a shift in focus from short-term demand stimulation to systematically enhancing consumer willingness, supported by policies such as employment and entrepreneurship initiatives [2][50]. - From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [2]. Group 3 - Four major consumption trends are identified: the rise of domestic brands, emotional consumption, the silver economy, and AI+ consumption [3][4]. - The silver economy is driven by an aging population, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above exceeding 14% in 2021, and expected to surpass 30% by 2035 [21][23]. - Emotional consumption is characterized by a shift from functional to self-rewarding and social value, with consumers willing to pay for emotional value [3][20]. Group 4 - The report recommends focusing on structural opportunities in the consumer sector, highlighting four core investment themes: the rise of domestic brands, high-growth emotional consumption, the burgeoning silver economy, and AI+ consumption [4][18]. - Specific companies are recommended for investment, including domestic brands like Lao Pu Gold, Shangmei Co., and Midea, as well as emotional consumption leaders like Pop Mart and Heytea [5][4]. Group 5 - The integration of AI into the consumer chain is emphasized, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong product innovation capabilities [3][4]. - The rise of online sales driven by live streaming and e-commerce is reshaping the retail landscape, with online retail sales reaching 6.0 billion in the first five months of 2025, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth [41][40]. Group 6 - The sensory experience is becoming a core value of brands, with consumers increasingly demanding high-quality sensory interactions [32][39]. - The marketing landscape is shifting towards decentralized models, with KOL and KOC marketing gaining prominence, allowing brands to achieve precise targeting and higher ROI [49][40].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu province is showcasing its development vitality through the "Su Chao" trend, with county-level sectors significantly contributing to nearly half of the province's economic output, emphasizing high-quality development and innovative paths for new productive forces [1] Group 1: Current Landscape of New Productive Forces in Jiangsu Counties - Jiangsu's counties exhibit a spatial pattern of "South Strong, Central Rising, North Advancing," forming a collaborative "geese formation" across the province [2] - The southern region, as an innovation hub, houses over 7,000 enterprises related to new productive forces, with Kunshan, Jiangyin, and Zhangjiagang leading as top counties [2] - Kunshan stands out with over 1,000 enterprises in traditional industry transformation, while Suzhong and Subei regions are also making significant strides in developing new productive forces [2] Group 2: Resilience in Transitioning Old and New Energies - Jiangsu counties are achieving a "multi-level jump" in industrial capability through a dual drive of "renewing traditional energy and laying out new tracks" [3] - Traditional industries are undergoing digital transformation, with notable examples like Changshu's Bosideng integrating AI and big data into textile production [3] - Emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and biomedicine are becoming key development areas, with companies like Yuyue Group leading in the medical device sector [3] Group 3: Collaborative Innovation Ecosystem - Jiangsu counties are breaking through development limitations by building a collaborative innovation ecosystem that attracts innovative resources [4] - The market-oriented operation model of industry-university-research collaboration has shown significant results, with Kunshan's technology spending reaching 10% of public budget expenditures [4] - The establishment of advanced research institutes in collaboration with institutions like the Chinese Academy of Sciences has led to the emergence of leading enterprises in the energy sector [4] Group 4: Institutional Innovation Driving Growth - Institutional innovations are releasing development momentum, with counties like Kunshan focusing on talent acquisition and land resource efficiency [5] - Initiatives such as the "Funiing Filter Material Festival" have successfully created specialized service environments for emerging industries [5] Group 5: Recommendations for Further Development - Strengthening top-level design and coordination for county-level economic integration into the regional development framework is essential [6][7] - Encouraging differentiated development based on regional characteristics and optimizing resource allocation will enhance county-level economic performance [7] - Building a robust innovation ecosystem and enhancing the effectiveness of science and technology-driven initiatives are critical for future growth [8][9][10]

Group 1 - The article discusses a new trade agreement between the United States and Vietnam, announced by President Trump, which includes a 20% tariff on all goods exported from Vietnam to the U.S. and a 40% tariff on transshipped goods [2][5][10] - Vietnam has agreed to eliminate tariffs on U.S. products, allowing for zero tariffs on American exports to Vietnam, which is seen as a significant market opening [3][6] - The announcement led to volatility in the U.S. stock market, particularly affecting furniture and apparel stocks, with companies like ON Holding and Lululemon experiencing notable price fluctuations [7][8] Group 2 - Vietnam is a key supplier of textiles and athletic apparel, with major brands like Nike, Gap, and Lululemon manufacturing in the country, and it was the sixth-largest source of U.S. imports last year, with exports to the U.S. nearing $137 billion [6] - The article highlights uncertainty regarding the implementation of the transshipment plan and whether the agreement has been finalized, as the U.S. government has not provided clarity on the specific goods subject to the 40% tariff [9][10] - The potential for increased tariffs on Vietnamese goods could rise to at least 46% if previous tariff announcements remain unchanged, which could significantly impact trade dynamics [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for small-cap growth style in July, with a recommendation for sectors such as consumer services, real estate, and textiles to perform well in the short term [1][5][10] Core Insights - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed impact on different asset classes, with PPI underperforming and CPI exceeding expectations negatively affecting the stock market, while industrial value-added and PMI exceeding expectations positively influence the commodity market [1][3] - The report highlights a bullish signal for the stock market based on timing indicators, suggesting a potential upward trend, while the bond market shows signs of overheating risk [1][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of sector rotation strategies, recommending industries that may outperform in the current fast rotation environment [1][5] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - The report notes that the latest PPI data was below expectations, while CPI has exceeded expectations for two consecutive months, leading to a negative impact on the stock market [3] - Industrial value-added has exceeded expectations for three consecutive months, along with a favorable exchange rate and PMI, positively impacting the commodity market [3] Timing Indicators - Three indicators triggered bullish signals for the stock market, while three bearish signals were noted for the bond market, indicating potential upward movement for stocks and caution for bonds [3][4] Sector Rotation Strategy - Recommended sectors for July include comprehensive, light manufacturing, real estate, building materials, consumer services, and textiles, which are expected to perform well in the short term [1][5] Style Analysis - The report indicates that small-cap growth style is expected to outperform in July, with a notable shift towards growth style over value style [6][7] - The report highlights that the sentiment and market conditions favor growth style, with a total score of 1.32 indicating a strong preference for growth [7] Quantitative Strategy Performance - The report details that small-cap strategies have outperformed major small-cap indices, with specific strategies yielding returns of 11.4% and 9.6% [8][9] - The growth-oriented strategies have shown significant returns, with one strategy yielding 9.4% in June and over 22% in the first half of the year [9] Market Outlook for July - The report maintains a positive outlook for July, suggesting that both growth-oriented and small-cap strategies still present opportunities despite some valuation concerns [10]

Core Viewpoint - Recent quality inspections by Shanghai Market Supervision Administration revealed that 2 batches of antibacterial knitted products from brands Asics and Songshan Cotton Store failed to meet standards, raising concerns about product quality and consumer safety [1][5][6]. Group 1: Inspection Results - A total of 50 batches of antibacterial knitted products were inspected, with a failure rate of 4% [5]. - The inspection covered 19 criteria, including antibacterial properties, pH value, formaldehyde content, color fastness, and the presence of sharp objects [5][8]. - Specific failures included Songshan Cotton Store's children's underwear, which had a wet rubbing color fastness rating of 2-3, below the required standard of ≥3 [5][8]. Group 2: Company Responses - Songshan Cotton Store acknowledged the inspection results, stating that they are currently rectifying the issues and have removed the affected products from sale [9]. - Asics indicated that they have registered the situation for feedback but did not provide further details upon inquiry [10]. Group 3: Company Background and Performance - Asics, founded in the late 1940s and headquartered in Kobe, Japan, operates five major business segments, including performance running shoes and sports fashion [10]. - For the fiscal year 2024, Asics reported sales of 678.526 billion yen (approximately 34.9 billion RMB), an 18.9% year-on-year increase, with operating profit surpassing 100 billion yen for the first time [10]. - The Greater China region showed the strongest growth, with revenue reaching 100.498 billion yen, a 29.5% increase, while Southeast Asia and South Asia markets grew by 38% [10].

Group 1 - The Peacock Watch Industry Group in Dandong, Liaoning Province, has around 60 watch component companies producing over 5 million watch movements annually, supported by local industry resources [1] - The company invests over 20 million yuan annually in R&D and employs over 300 research personnel, fostering the growth of more than 20 local supporting enterprises [1] - Dandong, known as the "Light Industry Capital," has a diverse industrial system with 68 categories of light industry and over 1,100 types of light industrial products [1] Group 2 - Dandong is implementing a revitalization plan for light industry, aiming to accelerate the development of new productive forces [2] - Huayang Textile and Garment Co., Ltd. reported sales revenue exceeding 300 million yuan last year, showcasing a full industry chain approach towards innovation [2] - The company has improved production efficiency by modifying textile equipment and processes tailored to the characteristics of tussah silk [2] Group 3 - Liao Ning Skye Technology Co., Ltd. has invested 160 million yuan in R&D over the past six years, participating in the formulation of 20 national and industry standards, and obtaining over 160 patents and software copyrights [3] - The company's smart gas meter products are used nationwide, with over 800,000 units in operation, including 200,000 smart gas meters installed in Dandong [3]

记者日前从中国纺织工业联合会获悉，近两年纺织服装行业平均碳排放强度降幅超14%，行业绿色发展 步伐加快。 中国纺织工业联合会会长孙瑞哲介绍，我国纺织工业从末端治理到全链优化，从线性消耗到循环利 用，"降碳、减污、扩绿、增长"一体发展、系统推进，2005年至2022年行业碳排放强度下降超60%。 "纺织服装行业低碳转型质量提升，碳排放强度持续下降。"中国纺织工业联合会副会长阎岩表示，近两 年纺织企业平均排放强度降幅超14%，品牌企业表现更为突出，下降了18%。 "要打造优势互补、风险共担、利益共享的创新共同体。推进全球务实合作，优化产业布局。"孙瑞哲表 示，纺织行业要探索构建稳定高效的纺织品跨国循环利用体系。 据中国纺织信息中心等机构发布的《中国纺织业脱碳可再生能源投资可行性研究报告》显示，我国纺织 纤维加工量占全球总量50%以上，纺织工业年碳排放量约占全国碳排放总量2%，行业碳排放主要源于 能源使用。因此，中国纺织工业联合会推进的"时尚气候创新30·60碳中和加速计划"，将绿色电力作为 核心减碳路径之一。 （文章来源：经济日报） "时尚气候创新30·60碳中和加速计划"实施4周年企业调研显示，绿色电力占企业总 ...

一批纺织服装产业数字化领军科技企业，正以技术创新为引擎，在AI与产业融合的前沿率先破局。凌 迪科技的"3D+AI"技术，从布料选择、创意生成到设计建模、仿真渲染，仅需两小时即可形成高仿真、 可生产的数字样衣。环思智慧科技的智能排产算法、AI质检系统、云供应链平台等，显著降低了企业 成本和时间消耗；柯桥的"织造印染产业大脑"，开启了纺织产业集群数字化升级的新篇章。 夏令敏表示，人工智能与纺织服装产业的融合应用已取得显著阶段性成果，部分AI工具已深度融入企 业实际运营。未来，随着人工智能技术的加速迭代，纺织行业将全面进入"AI+产业"实践新阶段，更多 新技术工具、新研发成果、新应用场景亟待挖掘与拓展。(经济日报记者刘瑾) 数据显示，1至5月，纺织行业生产、内销、出口、投资等主要经济运行指标实现增长，整体表现好于预 期，经济运行基本平稳。全国规模以上纺织企业工业增加值同比增长3.4%；限额以上服装、鞋帽、针 纺织品类商品零售额同比增长3.3%，增速较上年同期加快1.3个百分点；网络零售渠道增速呈现持续改 善迹象，1至5月全国网上穿类商品零售额同比增长1.2%；纺织品服装出口总额增长1%；纺织业、服装 业、化纤业固定 ...

Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI index continued to rise in June, driven by a reduction in external disturbances and a slight improvement in new export orders [2] - The internal economic momentum is recovering, with high-energy-consuming industries stabilizing and new economic drivers expanding steadily, leading to increased production and procurement activities [2] - The service industry business activity index saw a slight decline due to the end of holiday effects, but overall market expectations remain positive with the upcoming summer consumption peak [2] - The construction industry business activity index stabilized and improved, primarily due to positive developments in housing construction activities [2] Stock Recommendations - The A-share stock selection for July includes New Guodu, Hengsheng Electronics, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, Akol, New China Life, China Life, Dongfang Fortune, China National Materials, and Huayou Cobalt [3] - The Hong Kong stock selection for July includes Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, AIA, China Hongqiao, Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, Xindong Company, Pop Mart, and Hua Hong Semiconductor [3] Company Research - Akol's COC project has passed the acceptance review and has officially entered the stable production phase, with successful output of qualified products [4] - Kuaishou's advertising growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025, driven by the launch of the new recommendation system OneRec and the potential for further monetization of the general merchandise shelf [5] - Bosideng achieved a revenue of 25.9 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024/2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, with a net profit of 3.51 billion yuan, up 14.3% [6] - Health元 is transitioning its traditional main business and is expected to see orderly progress in innovation, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [8] - New Dairy is expected to benefit from the continued advantages of raw milk and structural upgrades that enhance profitability, despite some concerns about the sustainability of raw milk cost benefits [9]