Group 1 - The 28th ASEAN Plus Three (10+3) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held in Milan, Italy, focusing on global and regional macroeconomic conditions and financial cooperation [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to enhance the development of general and industry-specific large models and accelerate the construction of high-quality data sets in the industrial sector [2] - During the May Day holiday, the price of branded jewelry gold fell below 1,000 yuan per gram, with some brands returning to the "800s" [2] Group 2 - In the first quarter, 151,000 wage-related illegal cases were resolved, benefiting 662,000 workers with a total of 8.07 billion yuan in wages [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a plan aiming to reduce the average feed consumption per kilogram of animal products by over 0.2 kg by 2030, representing a reduction of more than 7% from 2023 [2] - The number of South Korean tourists visiting China reached 2.66 million in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 24.1% [2] Group 3 - The eighth Digital China Construction Summit attracted over 360,000 participants, setting a new historical record [2] - As of May 4, the total box office for the 2025 May Day holiday period exceeded 600 million yuan, with "Dumpling Queen," "Hunting Game," and "Princess Mononoke" leading the box office rankings [2]

"这哪是造纸机，分明是装了加速器的打印机！"近日，在东营广饶的华泰集团8＃纸机控制室内，在公 司工作了20余年的车间主任任新峰盯着大屏上跳动的数字发出感叹。他身后的纸机正以近2000米/分钟 的速度吞吐着雪白的纸卷，每60秒抄造出的纸张规模有3个足球场大小。而指挥这场"纸业F1方程 式"的，是刚上线运营的造纸"产业大脑"。 "此前，造纸厂最头疼的事就是数据像散落的拼图、智能设备各干各的活。"华泰集团信息中心主任黄鹏 说，过去生产统计员需要抱着纸质单据满厂跑，生产系统和管理系统就像两个说着不同方言的人，产业 链信息也经常"断片"。 加快转型升级、融入数字经济为经营提质增效，成为当地企业的共识。去年7月，在东营数字经济攻坚 突破、制造业数字化转型等政策措施推动下，华泰集团正式启动造纸"产业大脑"项目建设。经过近10个 月的攻坚，该项目于日前顺利上线运营。 "以前巡检要带手电筒、记录本，现在利用AR数字车间的数字孪生系统，每台设备的运行数据都能看得 清清楚楚。"黄鹏介绍，将生产、管理数据以AR标签嵌入现场视频，实现"生产管理一张图"。"过去调 参数主要靠老师傅的经验，现在用的都是智能制造大模型推算出来的最优值。" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain A - share four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) as short - term cautious long; commodities as cautious wait - and - see; treasury bonds as cautious wait - and - see; ranking: stock index > treasury bonds > commodities [2] - Commodity strategy ranking: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in Q1 2025, the economy grew strongly and exceeded market expectations. The US's signal of trade relaxation and the Politburo meeting's indication of new incremental policies supported the domestic market sentiment. Internationally, the US economy slowed due to the decline in service - sector prosperity, but the US released positive signals on tariffs, which affected the dollar and global risk appetite. Overall, the domestic market rebounded in the short term, with the stock index maintained for cautious long, the bond market in high - level short - term oscillation, and the commodity market showing different trends [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - The IMF significantly lowered the global economic growth forecast in its April report, with the US economic growth forecast cut by 0.9 percentage points in 2025 [3] - The US President called for the Fed to cut interest rates, mentioned cryptocurrency regulation, and said the US - China trade tension would ease and might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China [3][4] - The Fed's Beige Book showed that international trade policy uncertainty led to a slowdown in the US economic outlook [4] - US economic data such as PMI, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and inflation expectations were released, showing a mixed economic situation [4][5] - The European Central Bank's president mentioned the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth, and the ECB's survey adjusted the euro - zone economic growth and inflation forecasts [5][9] - China's 4 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank increased liquidity support through MLF operations. The Politburo meeting proposed a series of economic stimulus policies [7][8][9] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From April 28 to May 2, various industrial data, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, and housing price indices in different regions will be released [10] 3.3 Global Asset Price Movements - Stock markets: Different stock indices showed different daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes, with some rising and some falling [11] - Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries changed, with some rising and some falling [11] - Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, oil, and precious metals had different price changes [11] - Exchange rates: The dollar index, exchange rates between major currencies also had corresponding fluctuations [11] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal consumption and inventory, and iron ore prices and inventory were presented through various charts [13][16][23] - Midstream: Information on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and capacity utilization, and chemical product prices and inventory were shown [41][51][57] - Downstream: Data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales and tire production, and agricultural product prices were provided [70][72][79] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: The US Treasury yield curve and its weekly changes were presented [81] - Domestic liquidity: Central bank's open - market operations, reverse - repurchase maturities, and domestic interest rates such as inter - bank lending rates and bond yields were shown [83][90][94] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From April 27 to May 2, important economic indicators such as industrial enterprise profits, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, housing price indices, GDP, inflation rates, employment data, and central bank policy announcements in different countries and regions will be released [102]

特朗普关税阴影笼罩，企业巨头纷纷拉响盈利预警。 "消费者采取'观望'态度并非不合逻辑，我们看到零售商的客流量有所下降"。 由于特朗普关税政策带来的成本飙升和消费者信心动摇， 美国企业巨头正密集下调盈利预期，覆盖消费品、航空、能源、电信、工业制造等多个领域，企业普 遍警告供应链受阻、成本增加，并对经济前景表示担忧。 虽然市场充斥着对经济衰退的担忧，但一种反向解读认为， 这或许是CEO们施压白宫的策略，反而可能促使政策转向，部分解释了近期美股市场反弹的现象。 FactSet的数据显示，截至统计时点，在标普500指数成份股公司中 ，已有超过90%的公司在第一季度财报电话会议上提及关税影响， "衰退"一词的提及率也从 去年第四季度的不足3%飙升至44%。 消费品巨头率先"缴械"，下调业绩指引 首当其冲的是消费品公司。本轮财报季中， 宝洁、百事，甚至墨西哥风味快餐连锁Chipotle等公司纷纷下调了全年业绩指引。 宝洁将其归咎于"更紧张的消费者短期内减少消费"，以及关税对其成本结构和盈利能力的影响。公司首席财务官Andre Schulten在电话会议上表示： 百事公司同样指出， "低迷的"消费者情绪以及关税是其下调全年 ...

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 北京时间4月2 4日凌晨，美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告（简 称《褐皮书》），这是"关税风暴"以来的第一份《褐皮书》，因此非常受 到市场的关注。 《褐皮书》显示，随着经济不确定性加剧，尤其是关税方面的不确定性， 几个地区的前景"显著恶化"。各地区价格均有所上涨，大多数地区指出， 企业预计关税将导致投入成本增长加快。 本次 《褐皮书》的与众不同之处 和以后相比，美联储本次发布的《褐皮书》有以下显著特点： 一是"关税"提及频率创历史新高。 褐皮书报告有107次提到"关税"，是上一期的两倍多，远超特朗普第一任期峰值（51次）。89次提及"不确定性"，显示 关税政策反复无常对企业信心冲击极大。 二是经济前景显著恶化。 多个地区因关税不确定性导致前景"显著恶化"，企业普遍采取缩短定价周期、加收关税附加费等临时措施以应对成本压力。 三是消费者行为扭曲。 消费者赶在关税涨价前抢购汽车和非耐用品，但非汽车类消费整体萎缩，国际游客数量锐减。 四是就业市场分化。 政府职位及依赖财政的机构裁员，私营企业招聘放缓甚至酝酿裁员，反映出特朗普政府缩减联邦开支的影响。 《褐皮书》揭示的内容将产生哪些潜在 ...

4月20日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波发表网志称，近期有不少金融市场的朋友表示，过去数月， 国际资本正加速配置到香港和内地市场。一些最近上市的内地企业，获得外资认购的比例较过去两年显 著上升。 陈茂波提出两项应对所谓"对等关税"的策略：一是维护好香港安全稳定的环境，向国际社会展示香港是全球资 金的安全"避风港"；二是继续向国际社会讲好香港在"一国两制"下的独特地位与优势，尤其是零关税自由港、 普通法制度、国际金融中心等，并持续优化营商环境。 来看详细报道！ 陈茂波重磅发声 二级市场上，在经历了上上周的大幅下跌后，上周港股市场止跌企稳，恒生指数全周上涨2.3%。多家研究机 构指出，当前，港股经历回调后具备较好的配置价值。 香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波20日发表网志称，美国对所有贸易伙伴征收所谓"对等关税"，不仅严重扰乱 全球贸易秩序与供应链稳定，亦大幅增加国际贸易和投资环境的不确定性。此种鲁莽的保护主义行径引发了市 场普遍忧虑，不少经济分析师预测美国通胀升温、经济放缓，甚至可能步入衰退。 "观乎世界各国的反应，美国单方面挑起关税战，不仅反噬其自身经济，亦正将自己推向孤立之境。我们近期 与各国商界领袖的交流中， ...

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行4月1日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了649亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量649亿元，中标量649亿元。Wind数据显示， 当日3779亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼3130亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 跨季后进入月初，银行间资金市场周二非银机构融入隔夜报价虽较季末回落，但仍居高不下。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.34%。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场上最新成交在1.9%附近，较上日有所上行。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债走势分化。 | | 1Y | | 2Y | | ЗУ | | SY | | 7Y | | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 | 1.5425 40.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic challenges facing the United States, emphasizing the growing debt and deficit issues, and critiques the Biden administration's fiscal policies as unsustainable, potentially leading to increased taxes and reduced economic vitality [2][4][28]. Group 1: Debt and Deficit Concerns - The U.S. is facing urgent issues related to expanding debt and deficits, with criticism directed at the Biden administration for its unchecked spending during stable economic times [2][4]. - The article suggests that the government should gradually reduce spending to address debt and deficit issues without triggering an economic recession, noting that a $300 billion cut in spending could lead to a 1% decline in GDP [4][50]. Group 2: Inflation and Inequality - Current economic policies are contributing to rising inflation, disproportionately affecting the bottom 50% of wage earners, while asset owners benefit from stock market gains, exacerbating social inequality [2][35]. - The "ordinary person index" has reportedly increased by over 30% to 35%, indicating that the cost of living for lower-income groups is rising faster than the general consumer price index (CPI), which has risen by about 22% [35][36]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions - The article outlines several plans to address these economic challenges, including reducing government spending, adjusting the international trade system to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., and utilizing tariffs to incentivize domestic production [5][50][52]. - A sovereign wealth fund is proposed to better manage national assets and create wealth for citizens, alongside the idea of "baby bonds" for newborns to promote long-term wealth accumulation [6][52]. Group 4: Regulatory and Tax Policy - Lowering energy prices and easing financial regulations are seen as essential for stimulating private sector growth and economic recovery [3][54]. - Tax cuts and regulatory relief are expected to boost GDP growth, with projections suggesting an increase from 1.8% to 3% or higher, which could alter the economic trajectory [58][59]. Group 5: Government Spending and Efficiency - The article emphasizes the need for government efficiency rather than merely cutting services, suggesting that reforms can lead to better outcomes with fewer resources [91][99]. - It highlights the importance of transparency in government spending and the need to address inefficiencies within federal programs, particularly in agencies like the IRS [100].

Group 1: US Economic Policy - Trump's tariff policy remains inconsistent, with a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada set to take effect on April 2, 2025[8] - February's non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs, below the expected 160,000, with government jobs contributing only 11,000, the lowest in 10 months[13] - Unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, higher than the previous 4.0%[13] Group 2: European Economic Policy - Germany plans to establish a €500 billion special fund and relax debt limits to stimulate the economy[21] - The EU proposed an €800 billion plan to "rearm Europe"[21] - The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered rates by 25 basis points, signaling a potential end to rate cuts[22] Group 3: Global Market Trends - US stock indices fell: S&P 500 down 3.1%, Dow Jones down 2.4%, and Nasdaq down 3.5%[28] - European STOXX 600 index decreased by 0.7%, while Germany's DAX rose by 2.0%[28] - Asian markets saw the Hang Seng Tech Index rise by 8.4%[28] Group 4: Bond Market Developments - US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.32%[32] - 2-year Treasury yield remained stable at 3.99%[32] - German 10-year bond yield surged by 45 basis points to 2.83%[32] Group 5: Commodity Price Movements - Brent and WTI crude oil prices fell by 3.9%, closing at $70.4 and $67.0 per barrel, respectively[34] - Gold prices increased by 3.4%, reaching $2931 per ounce[34] - Silver prices rose by 4.4% during the same period[34] Group 6: Currency Fluctuations - US Dollar Index dropped by 3.4% to 103.89, with the Euro appreciating by 4.4% against the dollar[36] - British Pound increased by 2.7% against the dollar[37] - Japanese Yen depreciated by 1.7% against the dollar[37]