1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: There are no disturbances on the resource side. Although the port ore inventory has decreased, it remains at a high level overall. The rising futures prices have encouraged spot suppliers to actively sell, but downstream buyers are reluctant to purchase. Material manufacturers make purchases based on rigid demand, and the spot resources are abundant. The market trading is relatively stable. The energy storage market continues to be hot, and the power terminal consumption is acceptable, but some car companies plan to reduce production. - Cost: During the reporting period, driven by the rising futures prices, lithium ore prices have strengthened. - Futures market: On Monday, the main contract hit a new low since listing. Then, the market sentiment reversed. Lithium prices rose significantly in the middle of the week and opened higher on Friday, closing above the 30 - day moving average. Overall, there was a trend of rising prices with decreasing positions during the week. The trading volume was significantly released at the beginning of the week, but on the day when the price hit a new high at the end of the week, the trading volume was lower than the previous high. - Outlook: The futures market is divorced from the physical market, and the price increase lacks substantial drivers. Lithium prices may回调. Fundamentally, the rising lithium prices provide a comfortable hedging space for upstream producers. At the same time, many smelters have made breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology. While the expected upstream production is increasing, the cost center may decline. The production increase of material manufacturers in July is limited. The energy storage market may continue to be hot driven by policies. The power terminal sales are acceptable, but the expected reduction in car company production may drag down the production plans of upstream material manufacturers and battery cell manufacturers, and the consumer side may not see significant improvement. Driven by the strong supply expectation, the fundamentals may gradually weaken marginally. However, it should be noted that the short - sellers' profit - taking demand is strong recently, and the positions have decreased during the week, which may cause the lithium price movement to deviate from the fundamental logic. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Indicator | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/23 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore: 1.3% - 2.2% | 108 | 106 | 2.00 | 1.89% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate: 5.5% - 6% | 639 | 634 | 5.00 | 0.79% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate: 5.5% - 6% | 639 | 634 | 5 | 0.79% | CNY/ton | | Spot exchange rate: USD to CNY | 7.169 | 7.186 | - 0.02 | - 0.23% | / | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 6.33 | 5.91 | 0.42 | 7.07% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 0.00 | 5.85 | - 5.85 | - 100.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 6.32 | 5.97 | 0.35 | 5.89% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) | 5.90 | 5.98 | - 0.08 | - 1.34% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine particles) | 6.35 | 6.45 | - 0.10 | - 1.55% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 110305 | 103436 | 6869 | 6.64% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.05 | 3.05 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 20.90 | 20.40 | 0.50 | 2.45% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Ternary material price: 811 | 14.55 | 14.55 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Ternary material price: 622 | 12.75 | 12.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | [6] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Last week's market analysis** - **Regulation and delivery**: As of June 27, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 21,998 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 60,340 CNY/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2509 was 341,400 lots. - **Supply side**: According to Baichuan data, as of June 27, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17,598 tons, an increase of 310 tons from the previous period. With the significant increase in lithium prices during the week, lithium salt factories have another hedging opportunity, and the operating rate may remain high. In addition, some mica enterprises in Jiangxi announced major breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology, and the cost center has moved down, which may further increase the supply of lithium extraction from hard - rock ores. The production of salt lake resources is on the rise, and policy regulation has limited impact on salt lake production. - **Imports**: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. Among them, 13,400 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month decrease of 34%; 6,626 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Currently, Chile and Argentina are still the main sources of China's lithium carbonate imports, accounting for about 63% and 31% respectively. In May, the scale of lithium carbonate shipped from Chile to China was about 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38%. Overall, the shipment volume from Chile in May was significantly weaker. - **Lithium ore imports**: In May, about 605,000 tons of lithium ore were imported, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. Among them, the import volume of lithium ore from Australia and South Africa increased significantly, with 371,000 tons and 52,000 tons imported respectively. In contrast, the import volume from Zimbabwe decreased significantly by 71.7% to about 15,000 tons. - **Demand side** - **Downstream cathode materials**: As of June 27, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 65,667 tons, with an operating rate of 59.59%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 36,496 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 15,300 tons, with an operating rate of 48.65%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous period. The prices of cathode materials have increased to varying degrees due to the rising lithium carbonate prices. - **New energy vehicles**: From June 1 - 22, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 691,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% compared with the same period in June last year and an 11% increase from the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market in the country was 54.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 5.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. However, with the base gradually rising after July, the year - on - year growth rate may decline. Affected by the payment deadline policy, car companies may enter the active inventory reduction stage, which will have a negative impact on upstream battery cell manufacturers and material manufacturers. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 110,305 tons, an increase of about 6,869 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 35,275 tons, an increase of about 408 tons; the market inventory was 75,030 tons, an increase of about 6,464 tons; the exchange inventory was 21,998 tons, a decrease of 5,795 tons from the previous week. [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] - **This week's outlook** The futures market is divorced from the physical market, and lithium prices are expected to decline. The price increase lacks substantial drivers, and lithium prices may回调. The fundamentals may gradually weaken marginally, but the short - sellers' profit - taking may cause the lithium price movement to deviate from the fundamental logic. [15] 3.3 Industry News - Tianqi Lithium has completed the development and verification of relevant processes and equipment for lithium sulfide industrialization, which is beneficial for promoting the development of the all - solid - state battery industry chain. - Wukuang Xinneng has achieved cumulative shipments of hundreds of kilograms of all - solid - state battery cathode materials. - Yinglian Co., Ltd. is researching and developing lithium metal/composite current collector anode integrated materials for solid - state batteries, and the industrialization progress of the composite current collector sector is advancing. [16] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and the production of related batteries, including lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, import lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, etc. [18][20][23][27][29][30]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.27」 碳酸锂市场周报 盘面反弹需求仍弱，碳酸锂或仍有压力 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 研究员:王福辉 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力合约周线强势反弹。截止收盘，周线涨跌幅+7.47%，振幅8.39%。主力合约报价63300元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，国家发改委举行新闻发布会介绍，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金。随着存量政 策加快落地见效，新的储备政策陆续出台实施，有信心、有能力把外部冲击的不确定性和不利影响降到最低，推动经 济持续健康发展。碳酸锂基本面原料端，锂矿持货商延续挺价情绪，加之现货价格近期上涨，拉动锂矿价格小幅上行。 供给端，市场整体碳酸锂供给量仍相对偏多，库存持续累积已突破前期高点，此外由于近期期价上涨，带动现货价格 上行以及部分持货方参与套保锁定利润，故冶炼厂生产情绪仍较好。进口方面，智利发运量级有所下降，预计到港后 国内 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Ganfeng Lithium is facing challenges in 2024 due to declining lithium prices, but the company is maintaining stable operations and controlling capital expenditures while achieving record production levels [1] - Ganfeng Lithium has established a full-chain layout in the solid-state battery sector and has applied for multiple patents [1] - The company plans to slow down its capital expenditure pace while continuing to promote key project investments and explore innovative financing methods such as equity investments [1] Group 2 - Ganfeng Lithium is optimizing its debt structure, accelerating asset revitalization, enhancing operating cash flow, and implementing prudent financial planning to address funding pressures [1] - Lithium prices are showing signs of bottoming out, and if current prices persist, there may be a supply-side clearing with reduced new capacity [1] - With the release of multiple projects' capacities, it is expected that the self-sufficiency rate will exceed 50% by 2025 [1] Group 3 - In the solid-state battery business, Ganfeng Lithium has achieved a breakthrough with a 400Wh/kg battery cycle life exceeding 800 times, and small-scale production of 500Wh/kg products has commenced [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 335 tons week - on - week to 18,500 tons. Due to the reduction in lithium ore costs, subcontractors are gradually resuming work, and there is an expected increase in non - integrated supply in June. In May, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 9,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 38%. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,352 tons week - on - week to 134,900 tons. The inventories in smelters, downstream, and other sectors were 58,600 tons, 40,400 tons, and 35,900 tons respectively. There was a slight inventory build - up in smelters and other sectors, and the overall inventory remains at a high level. In the medium - to - long - term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still significant [7]. - Demand side: According to research, downstream demand may increase slightly month - on - month in June, and the industry is gradually entering the off - season. The production schedule in the power sector has declined, and there is a certain behavior of rushing to export in energy - storage cells. The terminal market maintains a relatively fast growth rate. From June 1st to 15th, the retail sales of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market reached 402,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 38% [7]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate remained basically flat week - on - week, while the price of lepidolite concentrate decreased by 1.2% week - on - week. Overseas mines have a strong sentiment to hold prices, but downstream lithium salt factories have low willingness to purchase due to their pessimistic expectations for future prices [7]. - Strategy: Demand is gradually entering the off - season, while supply remains relatively high. Near the end of the second quarter, both upstream and downstream have certain inventory management needs. High inventory exerts a certain downward pressure on lithium prices, but further price drops are likely to trigger supply disruptions. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. In the short term, it is not advisable to chase short positions. In the medium term, maintain the idea of shorting on rallies and pay attention to the trends at the mine end [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - 5 - month lithium spodumene import volume decreased slightly month - on - month: From January to May, China's lithium spodumene import volume was 2.92 million tons. In May, China's lithium spodumene import volume was 605,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. Among them, in May, 371,000 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month increase of 24.1%; 52,500 tons were imported from South Africa, a month - on - month increase of 29.9%; and 97,000 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month decrease of 8.2% [11]. - The decline of lithium concentrate has slowed down: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate remained basically flat week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate decreased by 1.2% week - on - week. Overseas mines on the spodumene side have a strong sentiment to hold prices, with the SC6 quotation remaining above $630 per ton. Downstream lithium salt factories have low willingness to purchase due to their pessimistic expectations for future prices [14]. - China's lithium carbonate production may increase slightly month - on - month in June: In May, SMM's total lithium carbonate production decreased by 2% month - on - month and increased by 15% year - on - year. By raw material, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and recycling decreased by 4% and 13% month - on - month respectively, while the production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lakes increased by 2% and 3% month - on - month respectively. According to research, the profitability of subcontractors has improved, and the production of the salt - lake side has increased with the warming of the weather. It is expected that China's lithium carbonate production will increase slightly month - on - month in June [18]. - Lithium carbonate import volume: From January to April, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 78,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.8%. Among them, 53,200 tons were imported from Chile, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, and 22,600 tons were imported from Argentina, a year - on - year increase of 80.7%. According to Chilean customs, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China in May was 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38%. It is expected that this part of lithium carbonate will arrive in China from late June to July [21]. - Spot price remained basically flat week - on - week: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,400 yuan per ton, remaining basically flat week - on - week. Market transactions were relatively dull. Lithium salt factories were reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. This week, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,800 yuan per ton, remaining basically flat week - on - week [22]. Demand Side - The global new - energy vehicle market started well: The new - energy vehicle industry accounts for about 62% of the global lithium carbonate demand. In Q1 2025, global electric vehicle sales reached 4.1 million units, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Among them, European sales in Q1 were 900,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22%, North American sales were 500,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 16%, and Chinese sales were 2.4 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36%. The Chinese and European markets had strong growth, while the growth rate in the US declined due to political factors [27]. - Power battery production maintained a high growth rate: In May, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 123.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. From January to May, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 568.1 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 62.6%. In May, the sales of power and other batteries in China were 123.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.7% and a year - on - year increase of 58.1%. Among them, the sales of power batteries were 87.5 GWh, accounting for 70.8% of the total sales, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 55% [37]. - China's mobile phone shipments increased slightly year - on - year: In the first quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 71.6 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. From January to December 2024, the production of electronic computer complete machines in China's first quarter was 85.322 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, with two consecutive quarters of positive growth. Behind this data is the upgrading of the entire industrial chain driven by technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence [42]. - May energy - storage installation maintained a high growth rate: According to incomplete statistics from CNESA DataLink, the installed capacity of newly commissioned new - type energy - storage projects in China in May this year totaled 6.32 GW/15.85 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 193%/228%. The "531" rush to install contributed a certain increment. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Development of New - Type Energy Storage", clarifying that "new - energy projects shall not be required to be equipped with energy storage compulsorily". After the cancellation of compulsory energy - storage installation, the proportion of energy - storage installation will decrease, which may affect the demand for lithium iron phosphate by about 3% [47]. - June downstream production schedule increased slightly month - on - month: This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 3,630 yuan per ton, an increase of 200 yuan per ton compared with last week. The profit of ternary material enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, but the overall profitability was not optimistic. According to research, downstream demand may increase slightly month - on - month in June. The production schedule in the power sector declined, and there was a certain behavior of rushing to export in energy - storage cells [53]. Other Indicators - Non - integrated lithium salt factories had cost inversion: Recently, as the price of lithium concentrate stabilized, the production cost of lithium salt factories increased slightly. The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was 70,169 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 74 yuan per ton. At the current lithium price, manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene have fallen into losses. The theoretical production profit of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was - 9,869 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 426 yuan per ton [50]. - This week, the basis widened: This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was 1,500, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The closing price of the main futures contract of lithium carbonate this week was 589,020 yuan per ton, and the basis of the contract widened. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained flat month - on - month, with a price difference of 1,600 yuan per ton [56]. - The price difference between contracts widened: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the price difference between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract was negative. The price difference between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract was - 460, a decrease of 420 compared with last week, and the price differences between different contracts widened [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including data on futures contracts, spot prices, and raw materials. It also mentions macro and industry news, such as price changes of battery - grade lithium carbonate and corporate announcements [1][2]. - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 60,480, down 1,200 from T - 5; the trading volume was 35,622, down 200,575 from T - 5; and the open interest was 99,266, down 78,969 from T - 5. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 59,880, down 1,860 from T - 5; the trading volume was 181,046, up 12,314 from T - 5; and the open interest was 306,885, up 90,331 from T - 5 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 29,967, down 2,870 from T - 5 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2507 contract was - 30, up 1,150 from T - 5; between spot and 2509 contract was 570, up 1,810 from T - 5; between 2507 and 2509 contracts was 600, up 660 from T - 5 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 622, down 8 from T - 5; lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,225, up 15 from T - 5 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,450, down 50 from T - 5; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,850, down 50 from T - 5 [1]. - **Related Products in the Industry Chain**: Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized powder) was 64,570, down 1,480 from T - 5; lithium hexafluorophosphate was 52,250, down 250 from T - 5 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,464 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was 5.99 - 6.10 million yuan/ton, with an average of 6.045 million yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 5.835 - 5.935 million yuan/ton, with an average of 5.885 million yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day [2]. - Yahua Group plans to rename its wholly - owned subsidiary Sichuan Yahua Lithium Industry Technology Co., Ltd. to "Yahua Lithium Industry Group" and transfer the equity of 5 subsidiaries involved in lithium business to it for free [2][3]. - On May 12, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a landmark mineral agreement with the United States. On June 16, the Ukrainian government approved opening its lithium mining to private investors, with the Dobra lithium mine in central Ukraine being the first project under this agreement [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oversupply pattern in the lithium carbonate market in the second quarter is expected to continue, with no significant growth in demand - side production during the off - season. The supply - side production shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and lithium salt prices. Also, be cautious of the contradiction between the high open interest of the 2507 contract and the approaching delivery month for new energy varieties [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include positive macro - policies that may stimulate power demand growth and an increasing probability of supply - side disturbances as lithium ore and lithium salt prices decline. Negative factors are the large future production capacity expectations of lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt in a continuous accumulation trend, and the delay of production capacity clearance due to cost reduction of some high - cost technology routes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Strategy - **Futures Price Prediction**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.1% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [2]. - **Enterprise Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventories and at risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 70% of the lithium carbonate futures (LC2509) to lock in profits, sell 30% of call options (either over - the - counter or on - exchange options), and buy out - of - the - money put options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans and worried about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the money call options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 59,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day; the trading volume was 181,046 lots, down 560 lots or 0.31%; the open interest was 306,885 lots, down 450 lots or 0.15%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract was 59,840 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.13%; the trading volume was 17,850 lots, down 3,940 lots or 18.08%; the open interest was 67,483 lots, up 4,127 lots or 6.51% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate Month - spread Changes**: The LC07 - 08 month - spread was 340 yuan/ton (previous value: 160 yuan/ton, last week: 440 yuan/ton); LC08 - 11 was 300 yuan/ton (previous value: 300 yuan/ton, last week: 360 yuan/ton); LC09 - 11 was 40 yuan/ton (previous value: 100 yuan/ton, last week: - 100 yuan/ton); LC11 - 12 was - 380 yuan/ton (previous value: - 300 yuan/ton, last week: - 240 yuan/ton) [15]. 3.3 Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores remained unchanged on the day. For example, the average price of lithium mica with Li2O: 2 - 2.5% was 1,225 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium辉石 with Li2O: 6% (Brazil CIF) was 615 US dollars/ton [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 53,420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.47%; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 64,570 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.39% [22]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread was 4,120 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 5.72%; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices was - 934.79 yuan/ton, up 262.22 yuan or - 21.91% [26]. 3.4 Downstream Product Prices - **Downstream Product Quotes**: The prices of some downstream products remained stable, while others declined slightly. For example, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 30,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 523 (consumer - type) ternary material was 105,220 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 622 (consumer - type) ternary material was 111,120 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan or 0.08%; the price of 811 (power - type) ternary material was 143,120 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.13% [36][37]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased from 31,713 to 29,967, a decrease of 1,746. Some warehouses such as Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Shanghai and Cosco Shipping Nanchang saw significant decreases in warehouse receipts [39].

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate futures price experienced fluctuations, initially rising to 62,100 yuan/ton on June 11 due to Zimbabwe's plan to ban lithium ore exports starting in 2027, but then fell again on June 12 as market fundamentals showed no production cuts, leading to continued oversupply pressure [1][7][8] - The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase by 9.4% month-on-month in June, reaching 78,875 tons, driven by higher output from spodumene and recovery lithium, with an overall operating rate rising nearly 9 percentage points to 58% [2][8] - Despite the increase in production, the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to remain limited during the traditional off-season from June to August, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by immediate needs rather than stockpiling [2][10] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Sales and Impact - New energy vehicle sales in China have shown significant growth, with production and sales in the first five months of the year exceeding 10% year-on-year, indicating a stable upward trend in the automotive industry [3][5] - New energy vehicles accounted for 44% of total new car sales, with exports of new energy vehicles reaching 855,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 64.6% [3][5] Group 3: Supply Chain and Import Trends - Lithium ore imports have continued to grow, with April imports reaching 520,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%, primarily sourced from Australia, Zimbabwe, Brazil, and Nigeria [6][8] - Zimbabwe's government announced a ban on lithium ore exports starting in January 2027 to promote local refining industries, which is not expected to cause immediate shortages in the lithium carbonate market due to ample global lithium resources [6][7] Group 4: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The lithium price has been on a downward trend since March, with a potential equilibrium price around 58,000 yuan/ton based on supply and demand dynamics, indicating that prices may have reached a bottom [8][9] - Current market pressures stem from falling mineral prices and limited demand during the off-season, with expectations of continued inventory accumulation until August [9][10]

碳酸锂周报 供应有所修复，价格延续震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/6/9 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，5月产量环比增加1.9%至73020吨。本周碳酸锂产量环比增加615吨至16013吨，4月碳酸锂产量环比减少 9%至71652吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂 计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进口方面，2025年4月中国锂矿石进口数量为62.3万吨，环比增加16.5%。其中从澳大利亚 进口29.8万吨，环比减少3%，自津巴布韦进口10.6万吨，环比增加82%，自尼日利亚进口8.9万吨，环比增加4%。4月碳酸锂进口量 为2.8万吨，环比增加56%，自智利进口碳酸锂2万吨，占比71%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain stable with an increase in imports, while the demand growth rate is slower than supply. The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure and is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price rebounds to a high level and to keep an eye on upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material production schedules [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production**: In May, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 1.9% month - on - month to 73020 tons. This week, the output increased by 350 tons to 15398 tons. The production of lithium salt plants has been stable, and some overseas mines have adjusted their production plans. For example, Pilbara Minerals lowered its lithium concentrate production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year to 700,000 - 740,000 tons, and the Bald Hill concentrator planned to stop operating in early December 2024 [4]. - **Import**: In April 2025, China's lithium ore import volume was 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The lithium carbonate import volume was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56%. It is expected that the import volume of South American lithium salt will remain high [4]. - **Cost**: The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [4]. 3.2 Demand - side - **Production and Sales of Batteries**: In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 49.0%. The total export was 22.3GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 64.2%. The sales volume was 118.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 73.5%. The overall production in June is expected to be flat month - on - month [5]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: The introduction of the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the sales growth of the Chinese new energy vehicle market [5]. 3.3 Inventory This week, the lithium carbonate inventory showed a build - up. The factory inventory decreased by 1142 tons to 33401 tons, the market inventory increased by 3409 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 427 tons [5]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion Given the situation of strong supply and weak demand that has not improved, it is recommended to short - sell when the price of lithium carbonate rebounds to a high level. It is also necessary to continuously monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode materials [5]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - **Lithium Carbonate Production and Inventory**: There are data on monthly and weekly production, as well as weekly inventory changes over multiple years [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Lithium Concentrate Price**: The average price of imported lithium concentrate (Li2O: 6% - 6.5%) is presented over a long - term time series [14][15]. - **Battery Production and Related Data**: Data on the production, export, and sales of power and other batteries, as well as the production and sales differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are provided [5][20][23]. - **Production of Lithium Carbonate from Different Raw Materials**: In April 2024, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium salt lakes accounted for 20.06%, from lithium mica 23.35%, and from lithium spodumene 44.61% [21][22]. - **Production of Cathode Materials**: There are data on the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials over multiple years [26][27][31]. - **Prices of Related Products**: The average prices of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial grade), lithium iron phosphate (power - type), and ternary materials (8 - series NCA type) are presented over different time periods [18][35][39]. - **Import Volume**: Data on the import volume of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene over multiple years are provided [37][41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.772 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 25.43% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 24.28%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -356 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 75.18%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was -242 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.72% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54.28% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross profit of 489 million yuan, which is a decrease of 115 million yuan quarter-on-quarter. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,800 yuan per ton (including tax), down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, while the average price of lithium concentrate was 834.4 USD per ton, up 5.8% quarter-on-quarter [10]. Resource Development - The company is entering a phase of accelerated resource release, with expectations for self-sufficiency to continue improving and production costs to decrease. The C-O salt lake is expected to produce 30,000-35,000 tons of LCE in 2025, with cost reductions anticipated through operational optimization. The Mali Goulamina lithium concentrate project is expected to contribute significantly starting from Q2 2025 [10]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of its own resources, with a focus on solid-state batteries and energy storage as new performance support points. As lithium prices stabilize, the long-term value of the company is expected to become more apparent [10].