Economic Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the US economy contracted by 0.5% on a year-over-year basis, which was below expectations and undermined confidence in sustained economic growth [1][3] - The contraction is attributed to complex structural issues within the economy, with tariff policies significantly impacting both imports and exports [1][5] Trade Dynamics - The US saw an import growth adjustment to 37.9% and export growth adjusted to 0.4%, with net imports dragging down GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [3] - The reliance on imports has increased, exacerbating the trade deficit and highlighting the imbalance in the economic structure [3][6] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, contributed only approximately 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in the first quarter, indicating a decline in consumer purchasing power [3][5] - Consumer confidence has weakened, particularly in an uncertain economic environment, which has become a significant factor in hindering economic growth [3][8] Tariff Policy Impact - The "America First" trade policy implemented by the Trump administration aimed to protect domestic manufacturing but resulted in increased prices for imported goods, raising production costs for US businesses [5][6] - This policy has inadvertently shifted the burden onto consumers, leading to a slowdown in overall economic growth [5][8] Global Economic Uncertainty - The interconnectedness of the US economy with global markets means that uncertainties in other major economies, such as China and the EU, directly affect US export growth [6][8] - The slowdown in global economic growth has led many US companies to reduce investment and production plans, further contributing to domestic economic contraction [6][8] Structural Issues - The current economic challenges reflect long-term structural problems, with the US economy's dependence on external markets making it vulnerable to global uncertainties [8] - Addressing these structural issues, including reducing reliance on imports and adjusting trade strategies, is crucial for sustainable economic growth in the future [8]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Province is pioneering the "reassured consumption" model with an "online commitment + dynamic star rating" service to enhance consumer protection and optimize the consumption environment, supporting the construction of an international tourism consumption center [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - Hainan is the first in the country to implement the "reassured consumption" online commitment system, allowing eligible businesses to make an online commitment to "integrity management and assured consumption," which, after a 45-day public commitment period without anomalies, automatically qualifies them as "reassured consumption units" [1][2]. - The dynamic star rating system categorizes "reassured consumption units" into three levels: three-star, four-star, and five-star, with differentiated dynamic supervision based on their ratings [1][2]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework - Businesses with good credit and service quality can be promoted in star ratings and experience reduced random inspection frequency, adhering to the principle of "no disturbance without issues" [2]. - Businesses that fail to fulfill commitment terms or engage in illegal activities will receive warnings and may face downgrading or removal of their star rating [2]. Group 3: Technological Integration - Hainan has established a "reassured consumption" smart regulatory system that enables data interoperability with platforms like "Haiyi Ban," "Haizheng Tong," and the 12345 service, allowing online completion of applications, verifications, and regulatory processes [2]. - The smart regulatory system includes online evaluation and complaint functions, facilitating communication between businesses, consumers, and regulatory authorities [2]. Group 4: Market Impact - The "reassured consumption in Hainan" initiative has expanded to over 20 industries, creating more than 40 assured consumption business circles, with a total of 128,000 "reassured consumption units" across the province [2]. - The market regulatory authority aims to enhance the quality and reach of the "reassured consumption in Hainan" initiative, increasing public awareness and participation to build a regional public brand for "Hainan consumption" [3].

2025.06. 26 6月26日晚间，沪深两市多家上市公司发布公告，以下是第一财经对一些重要公告的汇总，供投资者 参考。 【品大事】 宁波华翔：子公司获上海智元委托生产全尺寸双足机器人 宁波华翔公告，公司下属子公司华翔启源于2025年6月26日与上海智元新创技术有限公司签订了 《委托生产合同》。华翔启源将在未来三年内为上海智元生产部分全尺寸双足机器人产品，以满足其 产能需求。该事项不会对公司本年度的经营业绩产生较大影响，但将对公司未来新兴业务拓展产生积 极影响。 7天6板长城军工：公司市净率水平高于国防军工同行业上市公司 长城军工公告称，公司股票连续3个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%，属于股票交易异常 波动。经自查，公司生产经营活动正常，日常经营情况未发生重大变化。根据申万国防军工指数，截 至2025年6月26日，同行业上市公司的加权平均滚动市盈率（TTM）为282.71倍，长城军工滚动市 盈率为亏损；同行业上市公司的加权平均市净率为4.69倍，长城军工市净率为8.19倍。长城军工市 净率水平高于国防军工同行业上市公司。公司股票短期内涨幅较大，公司特别提醒投资者，注意投资 风险，理性决策，审慎投资 ...

格林大华期货中国宏观经济半年报 从业资格：F0276812 2025年6月26日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 数据来源：wind，格林大华 1-5月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增长17.3% "两新"工作加力扩围提质带动效果持续显现，设备购置投资快速增长。1-5月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增 长17.3%，增速比全部投资高13.6个百分点；对全部投资增长的贡献率为63.6%，拉动全部投资增长2.3个百分点。 （2024年，设备工器具购置投资增长15.7%，2023年是6.6%）。6月26日国家发改委政策研究室副主任李超在发布 会上表示，抓紧推出加力实施设备更新贷款贴息政策，进一步降低经营主体设备更新融资成本。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 1-5月份，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降2.9%，1-4月同比下降2.8% 1-5月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长3.7%，市场预期4.0%，1-4月份为4.0% 1-5月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长3.7%，市场预 ...

全球经济和大类资产半年报 全球经济进入冲顶期 2025年6月26日 F0247894 Z0000112 3 受对等关税冲击，全球制造业PMI4月、5月收缩 于军礼 全球经济和大类资产半年报 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 2 48.0 48.5 49.0 49.5 50.0 50.5 51.0 51.5 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 全球制造业PMI指数 48.00 49.00 50.00 51.00 52.00 53.00 54.00 55.00 56.00 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025- ...

Group 1 - Retail sector saw a significant afternoon rally with Zhejiang Dongri (600113) hitting the daily limit up [1] - Yinzou Co. (600858) increased by over 7% [1] - Other companies such as Guofang Group (601086), Aiyingshi (603214), and Guoguang Chain (605188) also experienced upward movement [1] Group 2 - Dark pool funds are flowing into these stocks, indicating increased investor interest [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced the expected daily related transactions for 2025, which are deemed necessary for normal business operations and comply with fair trading principles [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Daily Related Transactions - The board of directors has approved the expected daily related transactions for 2025, with no need for shareholder meeting approval [1] - Independent directors have reviewed the transactions and confirmed they are normal and reasonable, adhering to fair trading principles [2] Previous Related Transactions - In 2024, the company did not engage in any related transactions with Shanxi Maoye Real Estate Development Co., Ltd [2] Related Party Information - Shanxi Maoye Real Estate has a registered capital of 11 million yuan and is involved in various retail sectors, with 100% ownership by the company [2] Financial Indicators - Key financial metrics for the related party over the last three years indicate total assets of 416,014 million yuan, total liabilities of 158,318 million yuan, and net profit of 2,867 million yuan [4] Expected Transaction Amount and Categories - The total expected amount for the new related transactions in 2025 is capped at 60 million yuan, primarily involving sales of goods between the company and Shanxi Maoye Real Estate [5][6] Pricing Policy - The pricing for these transactions will be based on market prices, industry standards, and government guidelines, ensuring fairness and transparency [6] Purpose and Impact of Related Transactions - The transactions aim to leverage the resources and channel advantages of the related party to expand the company's To B group purchasing business, enhancing operational efficiency and resilience against economic cycles [6][7] Risk Management - The company plans to use advance payment methods to mitigate performance risks and protect the interests of minority shareholders [7]

Core Insights - The platinum market has seen a significant price increase, surpassing 300 yuan per gram, with a year-to-date growth of over 36%, outpacing gold's growth [1] - There is a notable shift in consumer preference towards platinum due to rising gold prices, leading to a supply-demand imbalance for platinum jewelry [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - As of late June, there are 17,400 existing companies related to platinum products in China, with a concentration of 79.64% in the South China region [2] - The East China region follows with a 10.4% share of these companies [2] Group 2: Company Age Distribution - Over 70% of the existing platinum-related companies have been established for more than five years, with 51.06% founded between 5 to 10 years ago and 25.09% established for over 10 years [3] - Companies established within the last year represent only 1.62% of the total [3] Group 3: Industry Classification - The majority of platinum-related companies fall under the wholesale and retail sector, accounting for 81.52% of the total [4] - Manufacturing companies make up 5.09%, while other industry classifications each represent less than 5% [4]

Core Insights - Sichuan's departure tax refund sales and refund amounts have both increased by over 200% year-on-year in the first five months of this year, indicating a strong growth in inbound tourism and retail consumption [1][2] - The province has 447 tax refund stores across 10 cities, with 103 "immediate refund" stores, ranking third in the country after Beijing and Shanghai [1][2] Group 1 - The implementation of the "immediate refund" pilot program by the Sichuan Provincial Taxation Bureau has moved the tax refund process from departure points to urban shopping areas, creating a "shopping-refund-reconsume" loop [2] - Chengdu Customs has significantly improved clearance efficiency, with an average verification time for tax refund items reduced to under 3 minutes, enhancing the travel experience for tourists [2] - The upcoming 2025 Chengdu World Sports Games is expected to further boost inbound tourism, with plans to establish 9 "immediate refund" pilot stores in key tourist areas [2] Group 2 - Multiple departments in Sichuan will collaborate to release lists of "Must Buy" tax refund products and "Must Go" stores, enhancing the shopping experience for travelers [2][3] - New service models such as centralized refunds, in-store refunds, and online refunds will be optimized to improve the tax refund shopping experience [2] - The promotion of tax refund product delivery services and the implementation of new verification models will enhance convenience and strengthen Sichuan's role as an international consumption hub [3]

Economic Overview - Xi'an's economy shows a stable upward trend with industrial production growing rapidly, fixed asset investment remaining stable, and a recovering consumer market [1][2]. Industrial Production - In the first five months, the industrial added value in Xi'an increased by 13% year-on-year. Key sectors include electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, which grew by 53.3%, and automobile manufacturing, which saw a 35% increase. New energy vehicle production rose by 37.7% [1]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in Xi'an increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Industrial investment grew by 18.6%, accounting for 20.4% of total fixed asset investment, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous year. Notably, investment in industrial technological upgrades surged by 30.8% [2]. Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods in Xi'an reached 114.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The "old for new" policy positively impacted sales, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales growing by 16.4% and communication equipment sales increasing by 86.4% [2]. Foreign Trade - Xi'an's total import and export value reached 190.965 billion yuan in the first five months, marking an 11.5% year-on-year increase. Exports alone amounted to 133.567 billion yuan, growing by 16.2%. General trade saw a significant increase of 33.6%, accounting for 37.8% of total trade [3].