Group 1: Q3 Super Long Credit Bond Strategy - The report suggests gradually taking profits on super long credit bonds and switching to shorter-term, more liquid varieties while waiting for the next investment opportunity [6][10][26] - In Q2, the issuance of super long credit bonds increased significantly, with a total of 539.8 billion yuan, marking a 63% increase from the previous quarter [10][12] - The report indicates that the current market conditions do not support further exploration of super long credit bonds due to declining odds of capital gains and limited arbitrage opportunities [26][27] Group 2: Q3 Industry Bond Strategy - The strategy focuses on identifying investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" initiative across various industries [6][10] - In the construction sector, while there is a marginal improvement expected due to funding acceleration and the "anti-involution" initiative, the overall industry remains under pressure [6][10] - The steel industry shows strong expectations for marginal improvement, with opportunities for continued compression of spreads among mid-tier players like Hebei Steel and Shandong Steel [6][10] - The coal sector anticipates a rebound in prices, with a focus on major players like Jin Energy, while cash flow improvements may exceed expectations [6][10] - The real estate sector faces increasing downward pressure, but state-owned enterprises still present attractive absolute returns [6][10] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the report highlights a divergence in market conditions, with opportunities for compression in spreads among quality private enterprises [6][10] - The cement industry is under significant pressure, with risks of losses and limited opportunities for excess returns [6][10] - The overall strategy recommends focusing on medium-quality entities across industries, particularly in steel, coal, real estate, and construction, while keeping an eye on the "anti-involution" initiative and the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station [6][10]

证券研究报告 策略 "反内卷"主线或逐渐形成 2025 年 7 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 华泰研究 何康，PhD 研究员 hekang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2202 王伟光 研究员 SAC No. S0570523040001 wangweiguang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 方正韬 研究员 SAC No. S0570524060001 fangzhengtao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 孙瀚文 研究员 SAC No. S0570524040002 SFC No. BVB302 sunhanwen@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 核心观点 近日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电站项目（以下简称"雅下项目"）开工和煤炭行 业限制超产等政策助力下"反内卷"主线逐渐形成，背后是政策力度和市场 认知的进一步深化：其一，此前部分投资者担忧本轮"反内卷"缺乏需求侧 政策配合，雅下项目落地提供了积极信号，下半年信用和库存周期拐点渐次 出现、ROE 企稳回升的能见度进一步上升；其二，本轮"反内卷"政策已 完成政策定调和顶 ...

Group 1 - The Guizhou Hanno Mining Co., Ltd. was fined for providing false information and concealing the number of miners underground [1][2][5] - The administrative penalty was issued on July 21, 2025, and included a temporary suspension of the company's safety production license [3][5] - The company was ordered to cease operations for three days and fined 734,000 RMB (approximately 73.4 million) [4][5] Group 2 - The violations included exceeding the allowed number of miners underground, failure to carry portable methane detectors, and inadequate equipment maintenance [4][5][6] - The company is a subsidiary of Hanno United Group, which has total assets of 3.8 billion RMB and operates multiple coal mines and other businesses [7][8] - Hanno United Group has a coal production capacity of 3.5 million tons per year and is involved in various sectors including machine manufacturing and real estate [7]

Core Insights - Shaanxi's industrial growth is driven by both energy and non-energy sectors, particularly coal and automotive industries [1][3] Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, Shaanxi's GDP reached 16,828.01 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2] - The industrial output value increased by 9.2%, ranking 4th among all provinces in China [2] - The mining sector grew by 10.5%, manufacturing by 8.9%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 3.3% [2] Energy Industry - The energy sector's value added increased by 8.5%, with coal mining and washing growing by 11.5% and oil and gas extraction by 5.5% [3] - The provincial economic plan emphasizes enhancing energy production and infrastructure, including coal and gas projects [3] Non-Energy Industry - The automotive industry showed remarkable growth, with production increasing by 25.2% in the first half of the year, and new energy vehicles rising by 30.3% [4] - Shaanxi's automotive production reached 943,200 units, ranking 6th nationally, with a significant rise from previous years [4] - The growth in the automotive sector contributed to an increase in exports, with total trade reaching 2,445.14 billion yuan, a 7.5% year-on-year increase [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the water conservancy and hydropower sectors experiencing a surge, while engineering machinery and coal sectors lead the gains [1] - As of July 23, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3608.58 points, breaking the 3600-point mark and setting a new yearly high, approaching the peak from last year's "924" rally [1] - The CSI A500 Index (000510) rose by 0.58%, with several constituent stocks, including Zhejiang Fuhua Holdings (002266) and China Power Construction (601669), hitting the 10% daily limit [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 ETF leader (563800) recorded a half-day increase of 0.59%, marking its fifth consecutive rise, with a turnover rate of 7.01% and a half-day trading volume of 1.193 billion yuan [1] - Over the past six months, the net value of the CSI A500 ETF leader has increased by 10.31%, with the highest monthly return since inception being 3.55% [2] - The CSI A500 Index is designed to reflect the overall performance of 500 representative listed companies across various industries, balancing traditional and emerging sectors [2] Group 3 - Financial analysts suggest that the A-share market is entering a new bullish phase before August, driven by improved investor sentiment and new capital inflows, indicating potential upward momentum for the index [2] - Recent market trends indicate a positive outlook, with limited downside risk and clearer upward logic as investor confidence grows amid ample market liquidity [3] - The CSI A500 ETF leader provides a balanced allocation of quality leading companies across industries, serving as a strategic tool for investing in A-shares [3]

Group 1: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement, reducing the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion and open its agricultural market [1] - Following the announcement, Japan's Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices rose approximately 2.7%, reaching their highest levels since July 2024, with significant gains in the automotive sector [3] - The Philippines also reached a trade agreement with the US, with tariffs set at 19%, lower than the previously threatened 20% [1] Group 2: Political Developments in Japan - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to announce his resignation by the end of August, following the ruling coalition's loss of majority seats in the recent Senate elections [1][5] - The political uncertainty in Japan may lead to increased volatility in the market, affecting investor confidence and complicating the policy environment [5] - The election results could influence Japan's fiscal policy direction, with opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and the ruling coalition favoring fiscal discipline [5] Group 3: Bond Market Reactions - Japanese government bond yields have risen across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 0.8%, and the 10-year yield rising by 8 basis points to 1.58% [4] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are driving the bond market, with predictions of further yield increases if populist parties push for tax reductions [6] Group 4: Broader Market Trends in Asia - Other Asian markets also experienced gains, with South Korea's KOSPI index rising 0.62% and significant increases in automotive stocks [7] - Vietnam's stock market has shown strong performance, with a 19% increase this year, driven by optimism from recent trade agreements and significant economic reforms [8]

Macro Overview - In the first half of 2023, China's wholesale and retail industry added value reached 6.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, accounting for 10.3% of GDP, providing strong support for expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation [4] - The "Housing Rental Regulations" will take effect on September 15, 2025, establishing a rental price monitoring mechanism to curb issues such as deposit deductions and short-term payments for long-term leases [4] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is promoting the expansion of the basic pension insurance fund's entrusted investment scale and is researching further standardization of investment operation information reporting and disclosure systems [4] Industry Dynamics - The World Health Organization plans to officially release new guidelines for treating adult obesity based on GLP-1 therapy in September, with related stocks including Hanyu Pharmaceutical and East China Pharmaceutical [6] - Solid-state batteries are progressing from laboratory stages to mass production verification, with related stocks including Liyuanheng and XianDao Intelligent [6] - Neuralink, owned by Elon Musk, achieved a milestone by completing two surgeries in one day, with related stocks including Aipeng Medical and Innovation Medical [6] Company Focus - Dayu Water-saving has established project accumulation in Tibet and surrounding areas, aiming to seize the investment window for water conservancy in Tibet [8] - Wankai New Materials has seen monthly orders for its Linker Hand series exceed 1,000 units [8] - China Shipbuilding Emergency has organized a professional team to actively participate in large-scale hydropower projects [8] - Zoomlion Heavy Industry is expected to play a key role in the construction of the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project [8] Market Review and Outlook - On July 22, 2023, the market experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.61%, all reaching new highs for the year [10] - The market showed a mixed structure with most profits concentrated in the super hydropower concept, while over 2,700 stocks declined [10] - The trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [10] - The super hydropower concept saw significant gains, with various sectors such as water conservancy, cement, and engineering construction performing well [11] - The market is expected to continue its consolidation phase, with a healthy structure of rising prices and increasing volumes, before any significant downturn occurs [11]

Group 1 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that the RMB exchange rate remained stable in the first half of 2025, appreciating by 1.9% against the USD [1] - The People's Bank of China indicated that as of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of real estate loans in RMB was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1] - Bloomberg reported that U.S. regulators plan to modify a controversial rule to ease day trading restrictions for retail investors, which is expected to attract more retail participation in the U.S. stock market [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the next round of U.S.-China tariff negotiations may include discussions on China's purchases of oil from Russia and Iran [2] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized the importance of dialogue and cooperation to stabilize U.S.-China relations [2] Group 3 - The United Nations reported that over 93,000 people have been displaced due to conflict in Syria's Suweida province, with significant disruptions to healthcare and basic supplies [3] - Shenzhen's authorities are enhancing communication with central ministries to support the capital market and facilitate the listing of companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3] Group 4 - The National Energy Administration is rumored to have issued a notice to regulate coal mine production and ensure stable coal supply, although this has not been officially confirmed [4] - The World Health Organization is developing new guidelines for GLP-1 therapies for adult obesity, expected to be released in September 2025 [4] Group 5 - Hive Energy plans to begin trial production of its first-generation semi-solid battery with a capacity of 140Ah in Q4 2025, aimed at supplying BMW's next-generation models [6] - The company is also set to produce semi-solid batteries with an energy density of 300Wh/kg this year, with plans for a second generation reaching 360Wh/kg [6] Group 6 - China Nuclear Power plans to invest 1 billion yuan in China Fusion Energy Co., which is a subsidiary of China National Nuclear Corporation [9] - Zhejiang Energy intends to invest 751 million yuan for a 5% stake in China Fusion Energy Co. as part of its strategy in the nuclear fusion energy sector [9] Group 7 - Sichuan Chengyu is part of a consortium that has been selected as the first candidate for the G5 Jingkun Expressway expansion project, with an estimated total investment of approximately 28.55 billion yuan [10] - Gotion High-Tech received a development notice from GAC Group for battery pack assembly, indicating increased market recognition for its SPS battery products [10] Group 8 - GoerTek is in preliminary discussions to acquire 100% equity of Hong Kong Mia and Changhong Limited for approximately 10.4 billion HKD (about 9.5 billion yuan) [11] - Hunan YN plans to establish an investment company in Singapore to invest in a lithium battery cathode material project in Malaysia, with a total investment of about 9.5 billion yuan [11]

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Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in coal production in China's central and eastern regions, with projections indicating a potential exit of approximately 700 million tons of production by 2035, particularly in Shanxi province, which is expected to see the most pronounced decrease [3][4] - The shift in China's coal production focus from the central to the western regions is evident, with the share of production from the central and eastern regions (including Northeast) decreasing by 26% since 2004 [3] - The report emphasizes the limited economically extractable coal reserves in China, with confirmed and credible reserves totaling 2,185.7 billion tons as of the end of 2023, suggesting a potential extraction period of only about 30 years at the current production rate [3][12] Section Summaries 1. Limited Economically Extractable Coal Reserves - China's coal resources are abundant, but the economically extractable reserves are relatively scarce, with a significant portion of reserves located in the western regions [12][13] - The distribution of coal reserves is uneven, with the western regions holding approximately 66% of the total reserves, while the central and eastern regions account for only 28% and 6%, respectively [22][25] - The development of coal reserves in the central and eastern regions faces increasing challenges due to various factors, including deeper mining depths and ecological constraints [33] 2. Declining Coal Production in Central and Eastern Regions - The lifecycle of coal mines typically exhibits a pattern of initial ramp-up, stable production, and a sharp decline in later stages, with the central region's production expected to decrease significantly [2][4] - New coal mines are predominantly being established in the western regions, indicating limited potential for resource development in the central and eastern areas [4][5] - The report notes that the production capacity in key mining areas is rapidly depleting, with challenges in capacity succession becoming more pronounced [4][5] 3. Assessment of Decline Trends and Impacts - The central region, particularly Shanxi, is projected to see an accelerated decline in coal production, with an estimated exit of around 700 million tons by 2035 [4][5] - The report identifies that the consumption rate of coal resources in core mining areas is high, leading to challenges in maintaining production capacity [4][5] - The market for coal mining rights is becoming increasingly competitive, with state-owned enterprises facing structural disadvantages in resource acquisition [4][5] 4. Investment Recommendations - In light of the declining coal production trends in the central and eastern regions, the report suggests focusing on companies with long service life and abundant coal resources in these areas, such as Xinjie Energy and Huaibei Mining [4] - Companies with resources in the Jinshan-Mongolia region or those prioritizing resource acquisition in western Xinjiang are also recommended, including China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [4] - The report highlights the potential for asset injections from state-owned enterprises, suggesting that companies like Yanzhou Coal and China Shenhua may benefit from such developments [4]