张宁 国联民生证券通信分析师: 尊敬的各位投资者大家好，我是国联民生通信团队的张宁，今天早上我和我的同事朱正庆 在我们开工的第一天的早 8 点。来给大家做一下我们春节期间对光通信，还有 CPU、OCS 等这些行业的一些观察。首先，也是给大家拜个年，也祝大家在新的一年里面，这个投资 顺利，业绩长虹。然后，因为很，因为这个，我们长话短说，因为 8 点的时间后面大家都 有很多的会议我们长话短说，第一个就是春节期间我们看到了什么？一个是围绕着 AI 的 资本开支的讨论，其实是在春节期间也没有停下来，特别是关于 OpenAI 他们的怎么开支， 到底是 2030 年 6000 亿，还是到 2033 年 8 年的时间，我们要投入这个 14000 亿。 以及这个资本开支的口径，到底是资本开支？还是算运营投入？之类之类的这样的讨论， 其实因为他们，因为都是一些非官方的访谈，或者是这种或者是发推测，这样的公出来的 数据，也没有谁有义务说给我们清晰的把所有的账单列出来。而且这是一个 8 年到 5 年后 的事情。我们从另另外一个就是从其他，像微软，还有其他几家，特别是亚马逊，谷歌的 角度去看。我觉得我们看的更短一点，至少 26 年、 ...

2月24日复盘笔记：化工/油气/贵金属/矿产资源/光通信/智能电网等 ① ②春节假期，全国铁路累计发送旅客1.21亿人次，日均1341万人次、较去年春运同期增长11.5%。 ③今年以来消费品以旧换新惠及3053.2万人次，带动销售额2045.4亿元。 沪指涨0.87%，深成指涨1.36%，创业板指涨0.99%，科创 50 跌 0.34%。< 2月24日复盘笔记：化工/油气/贵金属/矿产资源/光通信/智能电网等 ① ②春节假期，全国铁路累计发送旅客1.21亿人次，日均1341万人次、较去年春运同期增长11.5%。 ③今年以来消费品以旧换新惠及3053.2万人次，带动销售额2045.4亿元。 沪指涨0.87%，深成指涨1.36%，创业板指涨0.99%，科创 50 跌 0.34%。 沪深两市成交额2.2万亿，较上一个交易日放量2194亿。 ①美国宣布将元素磷及草甘膦等关键除草剂纳入关键战略物资。 此前2025年11月，美国内政部及USGS已新将磷酸盐纳入关键矿产清单。 通源石油、准油股份、山东墨龙、洲际油气、中曼石油、泰山石油、惠博普、博迈科、中油工程、石化油服、贝 肯能源、中海油服、蓝焰控股、新锦动力 现货黄金向 ...

韩国股市持续创出历史新高，刺激港股市场韩股概念股走强。其中：南方两倍做多海力士(7709.HK)盘中一度涨近7%，创新高；南方两倍做多三星电子 (7747.HK)一度涨近5%，亦创新高。另外，美股市场中，Direxion Daily South Korea Bull 3X Shares(KORU.US)隔夜收涨近11%后，在目前的夜盘交易中再度 涨超4%，报575.01美元。 消息面上，韩国综合指数(KOSPI)今日书写历史，盘中首次升破6000点大关，最高升至6122.98点，标志着韩国股市开启新时代。 韩国综合指数今年1月22日盘中突破5000点，仅在一个多月的时间内累计上涨逾1000点。继2025年累涨75.63%牛冠全球后，韩国综合指数2026年至今再度累 涨45%，继续牛冠全球。 根据机构截至周二汇编的数据，韩国股市总市值攀升至3.76万亿美元，自2025年初以来累计增加约2.23万亿美元。这一规模已超过法国的3.69万亿美元，使 韩国在全球股市市值排名中位列第九。 XL二南三星 (日线,前复权) 90.660 +2.70% 2025/5/28-202 92.580 8.210 VOL(5,10) ...

Core Insights - TSMC's market capitalization reached $2 trillion, doubling in just over a year since it first surpassed $1 trillion in October 2024 [4] - The surge in TSMC's valuation is largely driven by strong demand in the AI sector, with the company forecasting Q1 2024 revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion [4] - Major tech companies like Amazon and Meta are significantly investing in AI infrastructure, with Amazon planning $12 billion for new data centers and Meta over $115 billion [5] Group 1: TSMC's Market Performance - TSMC's stock price increased by 4.25% to $385.75 per share, marking a significant milestone in its market valuation [4] - The company has indicated robust AI demand, with clients expressing strong needs for production capacity [4][5] - TSMC is expected to increase its production capacity by 100% over the next decade to meet growing demands [6] Group 2: AI Infrastructure Investments - Amazon's capital expenditure for AI infrastructure is projected to be $200 billion this year, while Meta's is expected to exceed $115 billion [5] - NVIDIA's CEO highlighted the importance of TSMC in producing essential AI chips, indicating a long-term commitment to AI infrastructure development [5][6] - Concerns about potential over-investment in AI and the existence of an AI bubble have been raised, with industry leaders expressing uncertainty about future demand [6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - TSMC remains a leader in advanced process technology, having begun mass production of 2nm chips, while competitors like Intel are struggling with production yields [6] - The semiconductor industry faces competitive pressures, but TSMC's technological advancements position it favorably [6] - The market is closely watching NVIDIA's upcoming quarterly earnings report as a potential indicator of the AI sector's health [6]

Group 1 - Peking University’s electronic engineering team has developed the smallest and lowest power ferroelectric transistor to date, which is expected to support AI chip computing power and energy efficiency improvements [1] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities noted that the domestic production rate of semiconductor equipment has increased from 4.91% in 2018 to 18.02% in 2024, while the upstream component localization rate remains low, particularly in high-barrier areas such as RF power supplies and optical components [1] - As of February 25, 2026, the STAR Market semiconductor materials and equipment theme index (950125) rose by 3.28%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Youyan Silicon (up 11.28%) and Fuchuang Precision (up 10.54%) [1] Group 2 - The STAR Market semiconductor materials and equipment theme index closely tracks the performance of listed companies involved in semiconductor materials and equipment, reflecting the overall performance of these companies on the STAR Market [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the STAR Market semiconductor materials and equipment theme index accounted for 73.89% of the index, including companies like Huahai Qingshi and Zhongwei Company [2]

周二，美股三大指数全线收涨，纳指涨幅超过1%。科技股领涨，而此前空头仓位较重的软件股出现了典型的短线挤压行情。 | S&P 500 | Dow 30 | Nasdaq | | --- | --- | --- | | 6,890.07 | 49,174.50 | 22,863.68 | | and and the many of the same | A par rom monute | | | +52.32 | +370.44 | +236.41 | | (+0.77%) | (+0.76%) | (+1.04%) | 从"替代风险"到"增值工具" 这次反弹的核心在于市场叙事的切换。 此前的担忧是：AI自动化工具可能直接削弱法律数据库、金融终端、CRM系统的使用价值，从而压缩传统SaaS公司的订阅收入。 过去两周，Anthropic几乎成了美股SaaS板块波动的核心变量。 每当这家硅谷AI公司释放产品进展，软件股便先跌为敬。市场一度形成明显的防御姿态——先降低风险敞口，再判断影响程度。iShares软件业ETF （IGV）年初至今一度回撤接近26%，不少法律、金融信息服务商被视为"潜在受害者"。 但本周二的直 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 国家知识产权局信息显示，中芯国际集成电路制造(上海)有限公司、中芯国际集成电路制造(北京)有限 公司取得一项名为"自动测量方法"的专利，授权公告号CN116165847B，申请日期为2021年11月。 天眼查资料显示，中芯国际集成电路制造(上海)有限公司，成立于2000年，位于上海市，是一家以从事 计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本244000万美元。通过天眼查大数据分 析，中芯国际集成电路制造(上海)有限公司共对外投资了4家企业，参与招投标项目129次，财产线索方 面有商标信息150条，专利信息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可447个。 中芯国际集成电路制造(北京)有限公司，成立于2002年，位于北京市，是一家以从事计算机、通信和其 他电子设备制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本100000万美元。通过天眼查大数据分析，中芯国际集成电 路制造(北京)有限公司共对外投资了1家企业，参与招投标项目53次，专利信息5000条，此外企业还拥 有行政许可225个。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Group 1 - TSMC's stock price rose by 4.25% to $385.75 per share, achieving a market capitalization of $2 trillion, marking a significant milestone just 16 months after reaching $1 trillion [2] - TSMC's market capitalization doubled within a year, driven by strong demand signals from the AI sector, with projected Q1 revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion [2] - TSMC's downstream AI chip customers, AMD and NVIDIA, are seeking business expansion, with NVIDIA announcing a strategic partnership with Meta for the deployment of millions of chips [2] Group 2 - Amazon plans to invest $12 billion in building new data centers in Louisiana to support AI and cloud computing infrastructure, indicating ongoing high capital expenditures in the AI sector [4] - NVIDIA's CEO highlighted the importance of TSMC in the production of Blackwell and Rubin chips, indicating a potential 100% increase in TSMC's capacity over the next decade [4] - TSMC is leading in advanced process technology, having started mass production of 2nm (N2) process, while competitors like Intel are struggling with production yields [4] Group 3 - Concerns exist regarding potential over-investment in AI by tech giants, with some industry leaders questioning the clarity of future AI infrastructure needs [5] - A recent global fund manager survey indicated that capital expenditures by AI cloud service providers are viewed as a significant systemic credit risk [5] - NVIDIA's upcoming quarterly earnings report is anticipated to serve as a barometer for the strength of AI demand [5]

2025年，安徽省汽车产量达到368.65万辆，其中新能源汽车产量179.41万辆，均居全国首位。 奇瑞汽车股份有限公司董事长尹同跃在现场表示，安徽省委、省政府连续两年召开以科技创新引领新质 生产力发展为主题的"新春第一会"，充分体现了开局即冲刺，创新立潮头的决心和担当，让我们倍感振 奋。 尹同跃称，过去一年，安徽作为汽车大省、科创大省，高质量发展气势如虹，奇瑞也趁势迈入发展快车 道，成功实现港股上市，开启了发展的新纪元。今年是"十五五"开局之年，奇瑞将坚持技术突破，持续 推动智仓、智驾、AI智能体、固态电池，高算力芯片等一系列关键技术实现重大突破，巩固拓展安徽 汽车三个全国第一的地位，让世界上越来越多的用户爱上安徽制造、安徽创造。 连续两年参加安徽"新春第一会"的蔚来创始人李斌表示，会议在"十五五"期间为蔚来的发展指明了一个 清晰的方向，蔚来会持续地投入科技创新、技术创新，保证蔚来在"十二全栈技术"方面领先的优势，也 是希望作为安徽新能源汽车产业的一员，能够让更多产业链上的合作伙伴，落户安徽，扎根安徽，为安 徽新能源汽车产业的高质量发展，做出更大的贡献。 2月24日，马年春节后首个工作日，安徽省召开"新春第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent disclosure of holdings by Himalaya Capital, led by investor Li Lu, reveals a significant focus on technology stocks, particularly Google, which remains the largest position in their portfolio as of the end of 2025. Group 1: Holdings Overview - As of the end of 2025, Himalaya Capital holds shares in 8 U.S. listed companies, with a total market value of $3.57 billion (approximately 246 billion RMB) [1][11]. - Google's position is the largest, with a holding value exceeding $1.56 billion, accounting for 43.86% of the portfolio [3][12]. - The second and third largest holdings are Bank of America and Pinduoduo, valued at $573.73 million (16.08%) and $522.50 million (14.64%) respectively, with no changes in share quantities from the previous quarter [3][12]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Li Lu's investment style is characterized by low turnover and a focus on high-quality companies, which is evident in the recent portfolio adjustments [2][12]. - In the fourth quarter of the previous year, Himalaya Capital initiated a position in Crocs, acquiring 628,159 shares valued at $53.72 million, while exiting energy stock Sable Offshore [1][8]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The technology sector is highlighted as a preferred choice among major private equity firms, with both Jinglin Asset and Dongfang Harbor also holding significant positions in Google [4][14]. - Google's financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed total revenue surpassing $400 billion for the first time, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth, driven by advancements in AI technology and cloud services [4][15]. - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with various subfields achieving commercial viability, suggesting a favorable outlook for investments in AI-related companies [6][16].