英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 顺周期板块后续表现或仍值得期待 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 当前大宗商品的轮动行情契合"避险资产、工业需求、能源传导、民生终端" 的路径。2025 年至今，贵金属率先开启牛市，成为周期行情的先行者；随后工业 金属接棒，铜价创下历史新高，碳酸锂上演 V 型反转，背后是新能源、AI 算力等 新兴产业的刚性需求与供给端约束的共振。如今有色板块的上涨，正是这一轮动 逻辑的中期演绎，而按照传导顺序，能源化工与煤炭或将承接行情扩散。 在全球流动性宽松预期下，随着反内卷政策持续推进，国内稳增长政策持续 发力，经济供需格局有望改善，复苏预期强化，直接利好对经济敏感的板块，后 续经济数据（如 PPI）若持续改善，将验证复苏逻辑，驱动顺周期板块上行。可 逢低关注稀土、化工、煤炭、有色金属、基建、地产等板块，周期板块后续表现 或仍值得期待。 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 周三晨报提醒，依托上证 50 ...

A股开盘，三大指数涨跌不一，沪指高开0.11%报4155.92点，深证成指低开0.07%，创业板指低开 0.03%。盘面，金银价格屡创新高，贵金属及其他有色金属板块再度大涨，中国黄金、西部黄金、白银 有色等涨停；锂矿、云计算概念股调整。 ...

每日经济新闻 相关分析指出，美联储暂停降息但释放未来宽松预期，叠加市场对鸽派美联储主席人选的押注，推动贵 金属避险及抗通胀属性凸显，同时芝商所调整部分贵金属期货保证金参数也可能加剧短期波动。 1月28日，美联储议息会议暂缓降息，美元指数冲高回落，金价再度走强，日内连破3个整数关口，强势 突破5400美元，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨6.46%报5411美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨 3.22%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨9.25%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨7.14%。 美联储于2026年1月27～28日举行了年内首次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，决定将联邦基金利 率目标区间维持在3.5%～3.75%不变。这是继2025年下半年连续三次降息后，美联储首次暂停降息步 伐。芝加哥商品交易所宣布，上调一系列贵金属期货合约保证金。 ...

美联储于2026年1月27～28日举行了年内首次联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议，决定将联邦基金利率目 标区间维持在3.5%～3.75%不变。这是继2025年下半年连续三次降息后，美联储首次暂停降息步伐。芝 加哥商品交易所宣布，上调一系列贵金属期货合约保证金。 相关分析指出，美联储暂停降息但释放未来宽松预期，叠加市场对鸽派美联储主席人选的押注，推动贵 金属避险及抗通胀属性凸显，同时芝商所调整部分贵金属期货保证金参数也可能加剧短期波动。 1月28日，美联储议息会议暂缓降息，美元指数冲高回落，金价再度走强，日内连破3个整数关口，强势 突破5400美元，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨6.46%报5411美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨 3.22%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨9.25%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨7.14%。 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间1月29日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨6.46%报5411.00美元/ 盎司，COMEX白银期货涨10.06%报116.62美元/盎司。分析人士称，美联储暂停降息但释放未来宽松预期，叠加市场 对鸽派美联储主席人选的押注，推动贵金属避险及抗通胀属性凸显，同时芝商所调整部分贵金属期货保证金参数也可 能加剧短期波动。 伴随着贵金属、有色金属行情持续爆发，A股市场上贵金属和有色金属板块掀起涨停潮，截至1月28日收盘，白银有色 7连板，中国黄金4连板。全市场涨幅前十的ETF有9只为黄金股和有色相关ETF，其中3只黄金股ETF涨停。 《环球邮报》发文称，预计在金价和银价上涨的推动下，大型黄金和白银开采商将与股东分享红利，并利用现金收购 矿产，继续进行快速的并购活动，以增加储备和地理覆盖面。Scotiabank分析师Tanya Jakusconek预计："随着金属价格 每盎司上涨100美元，运营商的利润将提高90美元/盎司。" 值得关注的是，在贵金属行情愈演愈烈的同时，期货交易所则打出收紧风控的"组合拳"。上金所日前宣布，自1月30 日收盘清算时起，Ag（T+D）合约保证 ...

当地时间1月29日，日韩股市开盘表现分化。日经225指数开盘跌0.11%，报53301.26点；韩国综合指数 涨1.40%，报5243.42点。 美东时间1月28日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道指涨12.19点，涨幅0.02%，报49015.60 点；纳指涨40.35点，涨幅0.17%，报23857.45点；标普500指数盘初首次触及7000点，随后涨幅收窄， 最终收跌0.01%，报6978.03点。 欧洲三大股指1月28日全线下跌。英国伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数28日报收于 10154.43点，较前一交易日下跌53.37点，跌幅为0.52%。法国巴黎股市CAC40指数报收于8066.68点，较 前一交易日下跌86.14点，跌幅为1.06%。德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于24822.79点，较前一交易日 下跌71.65点，跌幅为0.29%。 黄金白银涨势难挡。1月29日亚市早盘，现货黄金盘中强势站上5500美元/盎司关口，一度触及5598美 元/盎司，随后快速回落，截至8时25分报5480.33美元/盎司；现货白银一度突破119美元/盎司，现报 117.682美元/盎司。国际黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the first pause in rate cuts after three consecutive reductions in the second half of 2025. The assessment of economic activity was upgraded to "expanding at a robust pace," indicating signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate and persistent inflation above target levels [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to rise, with international gold prices reaching historical highs due to geopolitical tensions and a loose liquidity environment. The market's concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][15] - The recent FOMC meeting's decision to pause rate cuts has improved concerns regarding employment risks, supporting the upward trend in precious metals. The demand for strategic allocation in precious metals is increasing, with gold and silver ETF sizes expanding [2][15] Group 2: Oil - The SC night market saw an increase of 1.54% in oil prices. The easing of tensions in Venezuela and potential diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran have contributed to this rise. Venezuela is advancing a comprehensive oil law reform, allowing both foreign and local companies to independently develop oil fields [3][10] - As of January 16, the average daily U.S. crude oil production was 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels year-on-year [3][10] Group 3: Aluminum - The night market for aluminum saw an increase of 1.87%. However, the current upward drivers in the spot market are limited, with the aluminum water ratio declining below 75%. The operating rates of leading downstream aluminum enterprises have also decreased, reflecting weak consumption sentiment [3][19] - Despite a weak short-term fundamental outlook, long-term narratives of low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand provide relative support for aluminum prices [19] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market has shown a positive trend in 2026, driven by the technology cycle, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market is transitioning from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth [7] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate aligns with market expectations, and the economic outlook remains uncertain with inflation still relatively high [4][9]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-29 鸽派预期再定价，⾦价加速创历史新⾼ 对更鸽派、独⽴性边际弱化的美联储预期持续升温，叠加主权债与货币避 险需求外溢，推动贵⾦属再度加速上⾏。⻩⾦在配置资⾦主导下突破关键 整数位并放量⾛⾼；⽩银跟随放⼤弹性，但交易与波动⻛险同步抬升，结 构分化进⼀步显现。 黄金观点：趋势性上行延续并再创新高，货币政策预期与避险配置形 成共振，短期关注波动率抬升。 逻辑：市场对未来货币政策更趋宽松的再定价持续推进，围绕下一任 美联储主席的鸽派预期升温，强化无息资产吸引力。与此同时，主权 债与货币承压、地缘不确定性抬升，资金加速流向黄金等避险资产， 推动金价上破5400美元/盎司并放量上行。配置端与期权端同步反映 对上行风险的定价意愿，黄金在贵金属中继续体现低波动、强趋势特 征。 （以上新闻和数据均来自彭博终端） 展望：在货币政策预期、避险配置与去信用化叙事共振下，黄金中期 逻辑稳固。短期或伴随波动率抬升与获利回吐，但回调阶段仍具配置 吸引力。 白银观点：高弹性上涨延续但波动显著放大，交易层面约束上升，短 期更偏震荡消化。 逻辑： 白银 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase chain has become a significant focus in the capital market, with notable price rises in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil, chemicals, building materials, and semiconductors [1] Group 1: Price Increase Trends - The richness of price increase signals this year is at a historically high level, with 321 tracked subcategories showing a significant proportion of price increases over the past three months, second only to the supply-side reform period in 2017 and the inflation surge in 2021 [4] - Recent price increases are primarily concentrated in non-ferrous metals, oil, chemicals, and storage, demonstrating deep transmission and linkage across the industrial chain [7] Group 2: Key Drivers of Price Increases - Geopolitical risk and concerns over US dollar credit are driving up prices of non-ferrous metals, including silver and gold, which are impacting the cost structure in semiconductor manufacturing and testing [8] - Supply-side disruptions and tightening geopolitical situations are pushing oil prices higher, leading to cost transmission to downstream chemical and building materials sectors [8] - Strong demand for AI is triggering a new wave of price increases in storage, with companies like Samsung and SK Hynix planning significant price hikes for LPDDR memory used in iPhones, while domestic semiconductor companies are also raising prices for their products [8] Group 3: Price Change Data - Notable price changes include: - Copper: 15.4% increase over the past week, 44.4% over the past month, and 113.8% year-to-date [9] - Lithium hydroxide: 10.6% increase over the past week, 80.1% over the past month, and 118.7% year-to-date [9] - NAND index: 10.8% increase over the past week, 19.8% over the past month, and 170.3% year-to-date [9] Group 4: Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - The first quarter is typically a favorable time for price increases, with expectations for further enrichment of price increase signals as the spring construction season begins and policies are implemented post the March Two Sessions [10] - The first quarter is seen as a critical verification window for whether the Producer Price Index (PPI) can stabilize and rise, based on historical inflation cycles [11]

Group 1: International News - The international precious metals market saw significant increases, with spot gold prices rising by 3.15% to exceed $5,580 per ounce, and New York futures gold prices increasing by 5.32% to surpass $5,620 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver prices broke through $119 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.98%, while New York futures silver rose by 4.85%, also surpassing the $119 mark [3][4] - Palladium futures surged by 11.67%, breaking the $2,100 per ounce level [5] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, in line with market expectations, with a voting result of 10 to 2 [6] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current policy rate is at the higher end of the neutral range, with inflation still high, and future policy adjustments will depend on subsequent economic data [7] - Meta Platforms reported Q4 revenue of $59.89 billion, exceeding market expectations of $58.42 billion, and projected Q1 sales between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, higher than analyst forecasts, leading to a more than 10% increase in after-hours stock price [9][10] Group 2: Company Earnings - Tesla reported Q4 revenue of $24.901 billion, slightly exceeding market expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.50, leading to a more than 3% increase in after-hours stock price; however, its FY2025 revenue is projected to decline by 3% and net profit down by 61% [11][12] - IBM's quarterly sales reached $19.7 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, with software business growth of 14%, resulting in approximately a 3% rise in after-hours stock price [13] Group 3: Domestic News - The domestic commodity futures market was active, with silver's continuous main contract rising by 3%, currently reported at 29,330 yuan per ton [18] - The continuous main contract for glass also increased by 1%, currently reported at 1,079 yuan per ton [19] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.38%, with notable increases in component stocks such as New Oriental up 5.22%, Haitan Network up 5.14%, Wanwu Xingsheng up 4.99%, and Beike up 4.20% [20] - Chinese concept stocks like NIO and Li Auto showed positive performance in pre-market trading in the US, rising by 3.61% and 3.85% respectively [21]